Why Michigan could make the Fiesta Bowl.

Submitted by Dawggoblue on

Even if Michigan doesn't make the Rose Bowl, we could end up in the Fiesta Bowl.  I know there is a lot of football to be played, but none of these things are even unlikely to happen.

 

1    Kansas State    10-0    Wins out, goes to NC.
2    Oregon               10-0    Wins out, goes to NC.
3    Notre Dame      10-0    Wins out, replaces Oregon in Rose Bowl.
4    Alabama             9-1    Wins out, goes to Sugar Bowl.
5    Georgia              9-1    1 will get BCS at large.
6    Florida                9-1    1 will get BCS at large.
7    LSU                     8-2    1 will get BCS at large.
8    Texas A&M         8-2    1 will get BCS at large.
9    South Carolina  8-2    1 will get BCS at large.
10    Florida State    9-1    Wins out, goes to Orange Bowl.
11    Clemson          9-1    Loses to South Carolina, falls out of top 14.
12    Oklahoma        7-2    Plays OSU, Baylor, and WVU.  Loses 1 and falls out of top 14.
13    Stanford            8-2    Loses to Oregon, falls out of top 14.
14    Nebraska         8-2    Wins out, goes to Rose Bowl, or loses to WI and falls out of top 14.
15    Texas                8-2    Loses to KSU.
16    Oregon State   7-2    Loses to Oregon.
17    UCLA                8-2    Either beats USC and loses to Oregon, or loses to USC and possibly Stanford.
18    USC                 7-3    Same situation as UCLA.
19    Louisville        9-1    Wins out, goes to Orange Bowl as last BCS pick.
20    LA Tech           9-1    Wont climb high enough.
21    Michigan         7-3    If wins out, goes to Fiesta Bowl.
22    Rutgers           8-1    Loses to Louisville.
23    Texas Tech    7-3    Chance could win out and jump Michigan.
24    Ok. St.              6-3    Chance could win out and jump Michigan.
25    Washington    6-4    No one else matters.

 

Assuming that the Rose Bowl picks ND to replace Oregon. the Fiesta gets the next two picks.  The will obviously take an SEC at large.  No chance they take the Big East champ.  That leaves another at large.  There are rules in the BCS to prevent the Sugar Bowl from having to take Michigan to prevent a rematch, so the Fiesta takes Michigan and Sugar takes another choice, leaving FSU vs Big East in the Orange Bowl.

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turtleboy

November 15th, 2012 at 3:10 PM ^

It's difficult to imagine a scenario where we don't leapfrog LA Tech, UCLA, Oregon State, Louisville, Texas, and Stanford by winning out and beating undefeated Ohio in Columbus. That puts us at 15th. Even if/when USC upsets ND they'll go on to lose to Oregon the next week and we'll jump them at 14th. I'm also expecting Oklahoma to lose to OKState. OKState almost upset KState on the road, and Oklahoma has terrible defense. That'll put us 13th. In the last week Clemson and South Carolina, and FSU and Florida play each other, plus whoever doesn't lose in the SEC East will play Alabama so we could potentially jump 3 more spots, but I'm only counting on 2, putting us at 11th.

Still, we must beat Ohio.

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State Street

November 15th, 2012 at 3:16 PM ^

You're missing a wildcard: the bowl game will be Denard's last game.  That plus a (potential) LSU matchup in the Fiesta would be tough to turn down, considering the storylines.  Just make the top 14.  And beat Ohio, obvs.

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Bill the Butcher

November 15th, 2012 at 3:51 PM ^

What reason does the nation have to care about Denard Robinson's last game?  I know we all make him out to be the greatest thing ever, but the collective nation couldn't care less.  The fact is, Denard is a 2010 story, the country has Johnny Football now.  And earlier this year they had Geno Smith.  And in 2 weeks they will have someone else.  The truth of the matter is, Denard isn't and hasn't been in the national spotlight day in and day out since the first 5 weeks of 2010.  He isn't a Tebow or a Vince Young, he doesn't have the national cache that michigan fans like to think.

 

Additionally, other than Michigan vs the Fighting Leslie Miles' (another Michigan-centric storyline btw) what national interest is there to a 3 loss Big Ten team (see: BIG TENNNNNN) playing a team that gave Alabama all it could handle.  Michigan isn't the only team that travels well, and this year there is no way a 3 loss Big Ten team gets an At large bid over a 3 loss Oklahoma or a 2 loss Clemson.  

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Trebor

November 15th, 2012 at 4:28 PM ^

"this year there is no way a 3 loss Big Ten team gets an At large bid over a 3 loss Oklahoma or a 2 loss Clemson."

There is if 3-loss Oklahoma and 2-loss Clemson aren't in the top-14 of the BCS. Also, what's the difference between 3-loss Oklahoma and 3-loss Michigan? Both lost two games to top-5 opponents, and Oklahoma's third loss would be to a team worse than Michigan's third loss. Plus Michigan would give OSU it's only loss, while Oklahoma's best win would be... Texas?

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Bill the Butcher

November 15th, 2012 at 5:37 PM ^

I realize it could happen if those teams aren't available. My point is that people will fudge their votes enough so that Oklahoma or Clemson are in the Top 14, not because of some disdain for Michigan, but rather because of the media perception of the Big Ten.

 

I completely agree that there is no difference between 3 loss Oklahoma and a 3 loss Michigan. I think we played ND tougher and didn't have them at home and our Nebraska loss carries the * of Denard being hurt.  The problem is not what you or I think, its the media perception of the Big Ten and like it or not the conference's OOC losses killed that perception this year.  Thats the reality we face and that is why Michigan will not leap-frog a 2 loss Clemson (with both losses to top 10 teams) or a 3 loss Oklahoma.

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ghost

November 15th, 2012 at 5:38 PM ^

Another Clemson loss and their computer numbers become probably lower than Michigan's.  They would lose at least I would say 4 spots in the human polls if they lose.  Oklahoma with another loss I don't think is going to get the benefit of the doubt from either the pollsters or the Fiesta bowl.  The Fiesta bowl has no reason to be loyal to the Big12 after they left them for the sugar

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funkywolve

November 16th, 2012 at 1:09 AM ^

1.  The Orange Bowl is almost guaranteed to get stuck matching the ACC Champ against the Big East Champ.

2.  Michigan could find themselves in a bind if Kansas St finishes 1 and Oregon finishes 2.  There's so many scenarios that can play out, but if the Fiesta gets ND to replace KState and Alabama wins the SEC, the open slots become Rose vs Big Ten, Fiesta vs ND and Sugar vs Ablama.  The Rose isn't going to want an all Big Ten match up and neither the Fiesta or Sugar will want a rematch.  Michigan's best hope in this case is that after ND gets one at large and you take out the SEC teams due to no more than 2 teams per conference that there are only 3 remaining at-large possibilites.  UM would get in by default.  If there are 4 at large teams available for 3 slots, UM probably gets the shaft.

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ghost

November 15th, 2012 at 5:53 PM ^

If K-State stays first and the Fiesta grabs ND and no second Pac12 team is eligible (which is looking very possible) the Rose Bowl would probably take the second SEC team, either Tex A&M or Florida.  

That would leave the Fiesta bowl with Clemson-ND if Clemson is top14.  If Clemson isn't who does that leave them with?  An OK rematch?  A Michigan rematch? Louisville?  

 

 

 

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funkywolve

November 15th, 2012 at 3:49 PM ^

It doesn't appear there are any rules preventing the Sugar Bowl from taking UM again.  I doubt they'd want a Bama-UM rematch though.

Taken from the BCS webpage:

 

  After completion of the selection process as described in Paragraph Nos. 1-4, the conferences and Notre Dame may, but are not required to, adjust the pairings, taking into consideration the following:

A. Whether the same team will be playing in the same bowl game for two consecutive years; and/or B. Whether two teams that played against one another in the regular season will be paired against one another in a bowl game; and/or C. Whether the same two teams will play against each other in a bowl game for two consecutive years; and/or D. Whether alternative pairings may have greater or lesser appeal to college football fans as measured by expected ticket sales for the bowls and by expected television interest, and the consequent financial impact on Fox and the bowls.

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Leaders And Best

November 15th, 2012 at 4:08 PM ^

A&M has a pretty favorable schedule down the stretch and should finish 10-2. Fiesta Bowl will probably take them given their previous Big 12 ties and proximity to Phoenix and are probably hoping to pair them against Oklahoma.

Need to root hard for Oklahoma & the winner of this weekend's Oklahoma St./Texas Tech game to lose.

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gopoohgo

November 15th, 2012 at 4:12 PM ^

Would love this to happen.

Michigan just needs to take care of business (beat Ohio in the land of the turd-coolers).

Any chance someone came to their senses and made the Fiesta play the game on a weekend? 

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Perkis-Size Me

November 15th, 2012 at 4:41 PM ^

bcs is not happening this year outside of the rose bowl, which seems unlikely at this point. i see either the outback bowl or the capital one bowl. get an opportunity to go up against a top 15 sec team, maybe top 10? i'll take it.

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Cold War

November 15th, 2012 at 4:58 PM ^

Is there a limit on how  many teams from a particular conference can go to a BCS bowl? You've got like  6 SEC teams.

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Cold War

November 15th, 2012 at 4:58 PM ^

Is there a limit on how  many teams from a particular conference can go to a BCS bowl? You've got like  6 SEC teams.

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MGoClimb

November 15th, 2012 at 5:28 PM ^

It could happen.  I'd love to see it happen.  Hopefully Michigan can pull out these mext two games, and we'll see what happens.  A lot of football to be played yet?

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