Why Jeff Sagarin Says Chicken Little Is Still Wrong

Submitted by Enjoy Life on

Most of "The Sky Is Falling" crowd have based their epinion on the fact that UMass is an FCS team (yes, boys and girls Div 1-AA has not existed since 2005) and that all FCS teams should be dominated by Michigan.

UMass was ranked #69 before the game. There are 120 FBS teams. Whoa, this can't possibly mean that Sagarin thought UMass was better than 51 FBS teams??!!

Uh, no -- Sagarin also ranked 2 other FCS teams above UMass. Thus, there are 53 FBS teams worse than UMass.

Non AQ teams like: The entire MAC except Temple, the entire CUSA except E. Carolina, Houston, Tulsa, 5 teams in the MW, the enitre SunBelt except Troy, the entire WAC except for 4 teams, Army and Navy.

Including the following AQ teams: Duke, Cincinatti, UConn, Syracuse, Louisville, Purdue, Indiana, Minnesota, Iowa State, UCLA, Washington State, Mississippi, Vanderbilt.

I am not saying the "Sun Is Shining" and that was a great game. It was not good. But, it was nowhere near the debacle many have painted it.

uniqenam

September 19th, 2010 at 9:54 AM ^

I think everyone here needs to drink a warm glass of CALM THE FUCK DOWN.  Good lord, this was the trap game of trap games, no need to extrapolate any more than necessary. 

We just had two emotional wins against excellent competition, and then here comes podunk UMASS, who, you must admit, would be hard to get up for.  Denard even said after the game that the whole team played sluggish.  Our defense played terrible, but we know we've got a defense that can hold teams like UCONN and ND to less than 25 points, which should be enough to win us some games.

Nosce Te Ipsum

September 19th, 2010 at 9:57 AM ^

Someone else posted Sagarin's rankings earlier in the week and showed that he had UMASS at 69 and I'm glad you brought it back up. This team had a lot of D-1 transfers so there were some decent matchups.

Also, I'm excited as Hell to have those band wagoners gone. Now the true fan can shine through once again. We won and made a lot of mistakes. Those mistakes are great because you learn from them and hopefully don't make them again. I look at that game as glass half full. The half empty crowd can crawl back in their holes.

wolverine1987

September 19th, 2010 at 10:33 AM ^

Glass half empty guy? Crawl back in his hole? Because he sure as hell was not happy after the win. I guarantee the coaches are concerned. Your tone and point in your last paragraph is ignorant. This meme of "lalalalala victory lalalal shut up debbie downers lalalala" is, contrary to how its owners portray it--irrational. The guys raising questions about the defense and special teams are the rational ones. And the ones that are much more similar to how Coach Rodriguez feels this morning.

PurpleStuff

September 19th, 2010 at 11:03 AM ^

I would imagine the stress and focus level of the coaching staff is high no matter what the results on the field (meaning they are always looking to improve).  On the other hand, fans acting as if their own angst is necessary or helpful to the team (as though if they were to let up in their resolve the team would fall apart on the field) gets annoying, especially when so many factors make yesterday's performance expected/understandable (we knew defense was going to struggle, UMass wasn't all that bad, big letdown game, long history of good U-M teams playing close games with lesser opponents, etc.).

PurpleStuff

September 19th, 2010 at 12:57 PM ^

What are you concerned about?  That our defense isn't very good?  Welcome to the fucking party!  Everybody knew the defense wasn't going to be very good.  They are extremely young and inexperienced and the talent pool isn't terribly deep.  As such, the other team often has success against them.  Is this news?  This looked like a 7-8 win team to most experts coming into the season.  Has anything happened in these three games (all wins) to make you think they will not meet those expectations?

And what is the point of expressing this "concern"?  To say "I told you so" if/when the team loses?  Some people seem to feel as though if they "tolerate" anything less than perfection, then the team is somehow doomed to failure going forward as the direct result of the softness of their fan mentality. The fact is, nothing you can do as a fan has any impact on the game whatsoever.  All you can do is cheer loud and support the team.  Why don't we start doing that and enjoy some of the many positives so far this year.  Lord knows we've waited long enough for a few of those.

Nosce Te Ipsum

September 19th, 2010 at 11:45 AM ^

I totally botched the post because I think things being questioned is one of the fun things about being a fan. I'm just speaking about people who think we will be lucky to win a conference game after yesterdays performance, calling for Gerg's head, etc. I'm no more of a fan than anyone else (except the people who don't have season tickets /s).

Mitch Cumstein

September 19th, 2010 at 10:56 AM ^

I love these posts.  "now that the bandwagoners are gone"...   You do realize that bandwagon fans are good for the university right?  More viewers, more merchandise, higher application rates, the list goes on and on.  This isn't some niche punk rock band that is only cool if less people are fans.  The more fans the better.  The more positive support the better.  The whole "I'm a better fan than you b/c I refuse to criticize a coach regardless of how shitty the team looks" and "I'm glad those fake fans are gone" is not a productive attitude in my opinion.

clarkiefromcanada

September 19th, 2010 at 11:28 AM ^

...they had to cede their place in the MGoBlogoSun for that group of fans that has an inherent need to piss and moan about everything. These are the same guys who crapped all over the legend Lloyd Carr, who bitched Bo was to conservative (actually, that was their dad but they learned early), who hated the RichRod hiring because, despite the Nehlen connection, he wasn't from the family.

Damn, these guys been waiting weeks to write how crappy things are around here...they are likely non-plussed we didn't lose. 

One of these asshats had clearly scalped near where I was sitting yesterday and you could see he positively glowed when UMass had their moments. I am sad to say that there is a sub type of Michigan "fan" who actually seems to enjoy yelling "wake up" at 18 year olds (who are not responsible for scheme issues, btw) and screaming this is "unacceptable at Michigan" a lot.

These idiots will crawl back in their holes again with a 30 point thumping of BG next week.

jmblue

September 19th, 2010 at 1:29 PM ^

Also, I'm excited as Hell to have those band wagoners gone. Now the true fan can shine through once again.

I don't understand this line of reasoning.  We want more fans, not fewer.  If fewer people buy tickets, merchandise, etc., that's bad for the athletic department.  Instead of a silly "good riddance" attitude, maybe it's better to try to educate these people as to why the sky isn't falling.

victors2000

September 19th, 2010 at 9:56 AM ^

that our defense sucked; I thought UMass played a whale of a game. Big props for the offense for keeping us in the game and essentially winning it for the team; this Denard guy, he's pretty good...

Mitch Cumstein

September 19th, 2010 at 10:56 AM ^

Thats where I would put the best FCS teams.  I compare them to average/upper level MAC teams.  That doesn't mean we should be OK with our defense getting shredded by them.  It could have been worse, at least we won.  Lets just take that and move forward.  No use in rationalizing.  Our defense needs to get and be better for us to have success in the b10.  I think that holds true regardless of where Sagarin puts them.

NateVolk

September 19th, 2010 at 10:01 AM ^

Great posts all around.  And the thread starter is awesome because it deals in quantifiable facts. Those can sometimes get swallowed up in the emotional hyperbole of being fans. 

Heaven knows I fall victim to that a lot.

Njia

September 19th, 2010 at 10:03 AM ^

I'm not saying the sky is falling, but I'm feeling a bit queezier this morning that I was on Friday. This season is starting to have shades of '09, wherein UMass played the role of Indiana, UConn filling in for WMU, and ND is reprising its role, in last season's melt down.

The bottom line is that the #69 team just hung 37 points on our defense at home. That doesn't bode well.

RockinLoud

September 19th, 2010 at 11:05 AM ^

But 20 of those points came in the 4th qtr, so we held them to 17pts through 75% of the game.  On the other hand, 20 of those points came in the 4th qtr, which is (except for maybe the one off of the blocked punt, which is itself something that should never have happened) inexcusable for our D.  And I agree, it doesn't bode well at this point.

ND Sux

September 19th, 2010 at 10:08 AM ^

I left the game yesterday thankful for the win but very concerned about the D.  In the end I told my friends that UMass is better than they think, but I wondered if I was kidding myself. 

The Sagarin ratings help validate my feeling that UMass deserves some respect, plus they played an excellent game. 

jamiemac

September 19th, 2010 at 10:26 AM ^

WORD

Exactly. This was a good team who will play deep into December.

And, its not like they even went toe to toe with MICH. Take either the Gordon fumble or the Hagerup punt drop out of the equation and there is no 'uspet scare.'  They never even had the ball ever with a chance to take the lead in the fourth quarter.

People need to chill out.

TESOE

September 19th, 2010 at 11:53 AM ^

kick.

Give them their props.  That is only fair if we take out the Gordon fumble and Hagerup drop to make it better. 

I would also say ... you don't want to over prepare for an FCS team either.  Putting reality into the locker room can be a good thing for the team down the road. 

The win is a win.  All the highlight reels are nothing but Michigan. 

Elno Lewis

September 19th, 2010 at 10:40 AM ^

fretting over HOW we win and not that we won.

 

No arrogance here.

 

Geez. we won. enjoy it.  let the corches and players worry over how we won.  If you actually think the D is going to play like this in every game, go watch MSU or something.

mgoblumike in fla

September 19th, 2010 at 11:53 AM ^

Of course we worry about how we won.  We played what should be a pretty inferior team and gave up a lot of points.  If any of the reasons that we gave up those points have to do with lack of talent on defense and special teams (and I think we all know it does) or poor defensive schemes and coaching (starting to look like a possibility again this year) then we need to worry more about our ability to beat teams that aren't as theoretically inferior. 

 

If we barely beat UMass, do we have a chance against very many Big Ten teams?  That is the question here.

MadtownMaize

September 19th, 2010 at 11:20 AM ^

a couple notes. Look how far Cinci has fallen. Also, notice that Troy, who beat BGSU in a tight game, is ranked higher than UMASS. Hopefully the team re-focuses and puts together a stronger performance next week on defense and special teams.

Seth9

September 19th, 2010 at 11:59 AM ^

The Sagarin rankings lack the number of data points necessary to be emblematic of reality at the moment, imo. I'm not panicing or anything (it was a letdown game against a good FCS team where we came out unprepared and executed poorly), but I don't think we can use the Sagarin rankings to justify anything yet.