Honestly. I realize he's only blown one save out of 25 this year, but he puts men on base EVERY SINGLE GAME HE CLOSES. Dude is worse than Todd Jones.
Why is Fernando Rodney our closer?
He gets the job done. What else do you want?
To straighten his hat and not put MEN ON BASE every single time.
Not a good closer.
Results are results. The man gets it done.
His WHIP is high at 1.30, with only Brad Lidge (1.83), Matt Capps (1.74), Kerry Wood (1.38), and Matt Lindstrom (1.76) all having higher WHIP's and being closers. But, I would highly suspect that Rodney's numbers are inflated due to his poor pitching in non-save situations.
This mental picture of a closer that comes in the 9th inning and pitches 1-2-3 each and every game is a pretty big myth in baseball. Joe Nathan has the best WHIP of closers at 0.79, so someone gets on base in 8 out of 10 games he pitches on average. Think about that.
Exactly. Rodney is not a good closer. His ERA and WHIP are very, very poor.
Bobby Seay would be a far better closer than Rodney. No question.
ERA is a pretty bad stat for relievers. About a 1/3 of closers have an ERA north of 3.0.
Would I love to have Joe Nathan as our closer? Yes. Am I happy with Rodney and do I think he can pitch well for us through the rest of the season and beyond? Yes.
I agree that ERA is not a particularly good stat for closers, but facts are facts, and both Rodney's ERA and his WHIP are very, very high for a closer.
Oh hey, I missed something. Papelbon has a WHIP of 1.31, nearly identical WHIP as Rodney. Should Boston move Papelbon to the 8th inning and move Ramon Ramirez with a WHIP of 1.19 to the 9th inning?
The problem with baseball is that players can be judged based on numbers only with very careful analysis. Adam Wainwright, CC Sabathia, Jason Marquis, and Josh Beckett are all tied with 14 wins. Do all 4 starting pitchers have the same talent?
Papelbon is also having a comparatively bad year. Not a good point.
My point was that the red sox have pitchers with better numbers that aren't closing games. Better numbers doesn't mean they are better closers in most cases. Conversely, worse numbers doesn't mean worse pitchers in most cases.
"Closer" - a relief pitcher who specializes in closing out games, i.e., getting the final outs in a close game.
Out of 26 opportunities in 2009 to get the final outs in a close game, Rodney has done it 25 times. The ERA and WHIP are beside the point (and better than average anyway)! Either the Tigers maintain their lead and win the game or they don't. With Rodney in the game, they've done it 96% of the time. I'll take that stat over your ERA and WHIP boohooing any day of the week.
In save situations, Rodney is 26/27. The one blown save, the Tigers eventually won that game. In save situations, Rodney has a 1.33 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP and MORE k's thank innings pitched. Over HALF of the runs Rodney has allowed occurred with leads of 4 or more runs. (11 out of 21 of them) 4 more of those runs were in games where a save was at stake, accounting for 15 of the 21 runs. That leaves 6 unaccounted for runs. 3 of those came in the game where Rodney walked 3 in a row. However, that is one single game. (Which the Tigers still won) At this point, I've counted 18 of Rodney's 21 earned runs, leading to ONE loss. The other 3 runs? All 3 of those other runs led to losses. 2 losses. Rodney's other loss was an unearned run. Rodney has cost us TWO games. ALL YEAR. Would you like me to go further? I will. Rodney carries an FIP of 3.90, indicating he is not pitching that out of his mind either. His GB/FB rate is 1.64, his highest since 2006. His line drive percent is 9, nearly 20% lower than last year. Ground ball percent is up 16 percent since last year. His fly ball and HR/FB rates are about the same as last year. You know what this indicates? The fact that he's getting the same amount of fly balls as last year, but the line drives have turned into grounders show that his STUFF has vastly improved over last year. Now let's talk about that "stuff." Rodney's fastball is rated at 0.73 runs above average per 100 pitches (compared to the average MLB pitcher). The slider is -19 per 100. The change is 1.46 above average. The difference between this year and previous years? Rodney throws a vastly lower amount of fastballs and sliders. (He virtually does not throw the slider anymore, at only 0.3 percent of all his pitches thrown). Because of this, Rodney's fastball has become much more effective. It went from the major league average to ABOVE the average. The change was even rated a 1/2 run below last year. That's a 2 run improvement. Finally, Clutch rating, or how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. Rodney holds a rating of over a +1 run than the average pitcher. Yeah, stat analysis is fun!
Very, Very good post, I would exhort other users to +1 the hell out of it... I personally don't think Clutch ratings provide much value, and that dislike is increased by such a small sample size in this case
"To straighten his hat"
Wonder Showzen = fantastic show
I don't like Rodney as a closer, therefore it must be racist. Perfectly logical.
you appear to hate all tigers relief pitchers equally.
There is no way he's worse than Todd Jones.
He is absolutely worse than Todd Jones.
Todd Jones has a career WHIP of 1.413 and ERA of 3.97 (which I don't like as a stat for closers) both are worse then Rodney's seasonal numbers (1.30 and 3.57). Rodney > Jones.
But come on man, if you honestly believe our closing is worse this year than it has been the 2 previous years with Jones, you either didn't watch baseball in 2007/2008 or you are delusional.
The fuck? He struck a guy out to win the game. That is the ONLY thing that matters.
No, it's not. His stats are clear indication that he is eventually going to head south as a pitcher and that we need a more reliable closer.
I know you and everyone else seems to believe Rodney is the answer, but might does not make right. Rodney is a poor closer.
When he goes south he will be replaced. He's 32 years old, I don't think anyone views him as a long term solution.
And you really think it's that simple? Who is going to replace him? Zumaya? Perry? Please.
Just because our closer situation is an apparent non-problem at this point doesn't mean it's not going to be a problem very, very soon. You're not going to just automatically plus someone in that role.
Perry was drafted specifically to be the closer. He'll at least get a shot at the job. If he doesn't work out, someone will be signed just like Percival and Jones were.
You're simultaneously arguing that Rodney shouldn't be the closer for the Tigers, and that the Tigers have nobody to replace him with. So...what is it?
I've already said elsewhere in this thread that I think Bobby Seay is a far better option.
Which begs the question why you typed this:
Who is going to replace him? Zumaya? Perry? Please.
You had answered your own question.
Well, I think Lyon would be better than Seay. He has been are best reliever since May, but Rodney gets the job done.
Lyon's numbers outside of domes? He has a 1.59 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and .170 OBA.
You just lost the ability to claim you've been trying to make even a semblance of a point.
Claim #1: Rodney's an awful closer.
Reality: Umm, well, no, actually he's not. 25/26, turns up the performance in close games, blah blah, etc.
Claim #2: You back up a little bit, allowing for the fact that Rodney's currently performing just fine, and claim that you actually meant he's going to be a terrible closer in the future. Because he just is and stuff. And when he does, we're screwed! We can't turn to Zumaya, we can't turn to Perry, what are we going to do?!! Ahhhh!
Reality: YOU YOURSELF answer your own question by submitting Bobby Seay! You! Not anyone else.
In other words, you've said NOTHING OF SUBSTANCE OR VALUE in this conversation.
you make your own point. he is not the best closer in the world. But he is ok, and there is no better solution. Therefor he might not be the best closer in baseball but he is the Tigers best closer.
His stats indicate that he will "EVENTUALLY" go south? So he's fine for now?
Then his stats say he's good enough for the time being, and the popular perception says he's good enough for the time being. Hm. Whether "good" is objective or subjective, Rodney is.
Just because it strikes worry in your heart when he steps on the mound doesn't mean he's a poor closer. I think your pulse would jump a little bit with anyone taking the field in a 1-run game with big division implications.
The fact of the matter is that nobody really believes that Rodney is going to be the long term solution at closer, and there's a reason for that.
your original argument had not much at all to due with long-term solutions.
Rodney is an above average major league closer and the Tiger's best option at this point. He gets the job done and that's really all that matters.
Get it done and keep us in 1st and I am good to go!
They won the fucking game! He gave up 1 hit! So he's blown a few saves this year, big fucking deal, every closer in the league has. Hell, Nathan's blown 4 of them and Papelbon has blown 3. His job is to close games. He gets it done nearly 90% of the time. Not everyone is going to be Mariano Freaking Rivera or Jonathon Jonathon Papelbon.
Embrace the Tilt-A-Whirl and be thankful Todd Jones has retired and can wear his hideously awesome shirts in peace. Todd Jones was a fucking nightmare closing. As David in Wyoming pointed out, Jones was definitely worse than Fernando, his whip was 1.418 in 2007 and a whopping 1.632 last year, there are numerous other stats that prove the same thing, but I don't feel like wasting any more time on your worthless nonsense. You're fucking ridiculous.
Who the hell cares if he wears his hat crooked, are you some sort of fashion critic now? He gets the job done. He can wear his hat backwards, inside out, or he can rip off the damn bill for all I care, if he keeps closing out games. Take your fucking knee jerk reactions and shove them up your ass.
Jones may have been worse in the twilight of his career, but that doesn't mean that Rodney is a good closer or that in the prime of his career, Jones was better.
Rodney is not a good closer. Period.
Sommy: Rodney is not a good closer. Period.
Sommy: His ERA and WHIP are bad.
MGoCommenter: His ERA and WHIP in save situations is actually dramatically better.
Sommy: He's a bad closer. Period.
MGoCommenter: But, (cites more evidence).
Sommy: I SAID HE IS NOT A GOOD CLOSER.
That's not arguing a point, buddy, it's a 5 year old plugging their ears and holding their breath until someone gives him.
Whether or not Rodney is the long term solution, he's who we have now. His success will play a large role in determining our playoff chances. If Ryan Perry can get consistent, then we are in very good shape with Seay, Perry, Lyon, Ni (haven't seen him in awhile). It'll be a big bonus if Dolsi and Bonderman can get on track. Miner may not be able to beat the New Yorks or Bostons, but he can eat up some good innings against quite a few teams.
Part of this is just going to be differing opinions. I used to vocally support Todd Jones, with his high numbers, because he 'got the job done'. I think Rodney is a more-or-less average closer for the team when compared to other closers around the league. Some are better, some are worse, most are at the same level as Rodney.
One of my favorite quotes from Jones was "If you don't like how I pitch, get up and make a sandwich or get a beer during the 9th inning. When you get back, I'll have gotten the save" (most likely paraphrased a bit).
Everyone gets their own opinion. There isn't much that is going to change about our closer situation and it looks like both our views aren't going to change much either Sommy. Don't let your opinion of Rodney ruin what is turning out to be a fun season.
You just saved me time. I will never read another post authored by Sommy ever again.
"I realize he's only blown one save out of 25 this year"
should've stopped there
It's about time everyone here calmed down and faced facts. The short of the matter is that nobody expects Rodney to be the long-term solution, and it's for good reason -- he's clearly not a quality closer. Obviously he is the least of the Tigers' problems right now, particularly since he has successfully converted so many saves this year, but it's incredibly shortsighted to fly off the handle and pretend it's not an issue. Rodney is 32. Who is going to be the closer of the future? Perry? Doubtful. Zumaya? What a joke.
It is an issue, even if you'd like to pretend it's not.
they drafted Perry specifically to be a reliever with the idea he could potentially be a closer down the line, right?
Yes, that's why they drafted Zumaya, as well. Nobody really believes either is going to be a closer.
was an 11th fucking round draft pick
Mike Hart was a 3-star.
Chad Henne was a 5 star
Looks like you missed the point.
is that great 3 stars are exceptions. So are guys drafted later than 1st rounders!
No, that's not the point.
You have no point to miss. If you do, you're clearly doing a horrendous job stating it, given that not a soul here seems to understand.
But seriously, so what? Rodney was undrafted and he's the Tigers' closer.
It's common knowledge the Tigers took a flyer on Zumaya because they intended him to be a closer. The only reason Zumaya went so late was because he had perceived durability issues due to his pitching motion, which have played out pretty much as expected.
Either way, neither him nor Perry are going to be closers.
You keep telling us to face the facts, and yet you're the one ignoring them.
FACT: 25 out of 26
Deal with it.
And where do you get the impression that Perry's not going to be a closer? Maybe this is the case, I don't know, but it seems like you're just pulling it out of you know where using the same super evaluation skills that led you to state that the man who successfully closes 96% of his games is somehow not successfully closing. Do you have any actual evidence backing up this statement?
why Perry won't be a closer. You have done one thing. You've said he won't. Tell me WHY he won't be.
The simple enough answer is that he has shown to be a mediocre pitcher in tight games. His ERA is no argument for him, either.
He's a rookie with virtually no minor league experience. Dude, come on.
"The simple answer is that he has shown to be a mediocre pitcher in tight games.
That is the exact opposite of the truth! His stats clearly indicate he's been BETTER in close games. Is that you, Senator Grassley?
EDIT: nevermind, thought we were still talking about Rodney.
I'm unable to explain how Perry's "clutch" rating is also above that of the average MLB, albeit not by a whole lot (still considerably lower than Rodney's at this point). Please, stop comparing Perry to Zumaya. Perry was a 1st round draft choice for a reason. It is quite clear he has a much better idea than Zumaya as to how to actually pitch to batters. He's 22 and pops the glove in the upper 90's (average fastball 95.5 mph rated at .32 runs/100 above a standard pitcher. His change also appears plus. The slider has a negative run rating, mostly due to his early season struggles to command that pitch. If you'll notice, since Perry went to Toledo to fine tune his command, his WHIP is 1.07, directly attributed to a decrease in walks.
If there's one thing that drives me nuts, it's people who use the "so-and-so was a first/second round draft pick reason" or "so-and-so was a 5-star recruit for a reason" argument, particularly in baseball where prospects seem to be harder to project than any other sport. Yeah, Perry was a first-round pick. So what? Inge was a second-round pick, and Bonderman was a first-round pick. One is a mediocre utility player, the other is a career .500 pitcher with a .430+ career ERA.
There's very little to indicate that Perry is going to ever be an adequate closer for the Tigers.
I said about Perry, that is the ONE thing you're going to respond to?
You seem like the kind of guy who thinks that W/L record is the most important stat for a pitcher.
despite the fact that I've hardly mentioned W/L at all? Did you ignore the material I've posted on things such as FIP, pitch value ratings, clutch ratings, ground ball/fly ball/line drive rates, ect???
You seem like a guy with no comprehension of the term "sample-size". 72 innings into his professional career, you've determined that he can't be a successful pitcher.
Sommy, you've generally been reasonable on this board, so I'm not negging any of your posts, but you're either drunk, or having a horrible day - you keep stating a belief, don't back it up with any convincing fact, shift your arugment when it's be refuted, and are attacking other posters. You're offline, which is good - maybe you need a break.
Ohh SNAP! Chitown just put your ass in timeout. BOOM, CHITOWNED!
Even if we don't have a closer of the future, that's not the reason you created this thread and is irrelevant to your argument. You stated that Rodney shouldn't be the closer at this point, which, as previously shown by others, is not the case, as Rodney is, at the very least, an average closer.
Moral victories abound.
The reason I created the thread is because Rodney makes me want to pull my hair out when he pitches. Yes, he's closing games, but not without significant trouble.
of the evidence I showed you in my really long post (2:33 am) that Rodney actually DOES NOT have significant trouble in save situations.
I'll give you that one. Despite his statistical success, he usually makes the game more interesting before getting the last out.
in 8 of his 26 saves, Rodney did not allow a runner and in 19 of 26 he allowed 1 or less base runner. For comparison, Papelbon has had 9 saves where he did not allow a baserunner, and one of those was a 1 out save.
Well, I can't argue with stats, but is there any way you can tell if there were runners in scoring position even in those games where he allowed only one baserunner? I tend to argee with Sommy that it seems like Rodney always makes the save more difficult than it should be and that is the only explanation that I can think of that is possible with the stats you've shown.
but i'd have to actually go in and look at the play by play for each game
Obviously not to the Tigers management.
Joel Zumaya's minor league stats - 2002-2005: 78 games pitched, 77 games started. It is crap like that further lets everyone know how ignorant you are on this topic.
I seem to remember, in the winter of 2006, the Tigers were trying to decide whether to use either Verlander or Zumaya as a back of the rotation starter for that season. Opted for Verlander and chose to convert Zumaya to a reliever.
I got so into my Rodney argument that I had completely forgotten that Zumaya started off as a starter.
But seriously, so what? Rodney was undrafted and he's the Tigers' closer.
Only players from the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico can be drafted. Rodney is from the Dominican Republic.
I mean...there are TONS of rookie relievers who spent little-to-no time in the minors who just go out there and are a rock from jump street....
Perry is a grand total of 41 major league IP.
let's reference some relevant numbers for perry vs. PAPELBON'S (who we'd all agree is a good closer, I think.) rookie years.
Is there THAT big of a difference outside of ERA?
EDIT: I clearly fail at HTML/table formatting.
EDIT EDIT: Thanks html table generator website thingy...
Sommy, I like you. Us Livonianians (Is that the right term? Jesus talk about cities with no real identity) have to stick together. I haven't negged you. But homie, quit while you're ahead.
Sommy this may be the dumbest shit I've ever read in the history of the interwebs. Rodney has been more then serviceable in his first full year of closing games. LOLLLL @ Todd Jones being better.
And how does "Everyoneeee" know that Perry won't be a closer. Who is "Everyoneeeee" anyways? You do realize that Perry has spent basically no time in the minors and this is his rookie season, correct? He definately has the skillset to be a major league closer, there's simply no debating that. Like none. The dudes a pure stud.
Have you ever watched baseball games besides the Tigers? Theres no closer in baseball that has a 1-2-3 inning every time....Or even 40% of the time for that matter. This is how baseball works. Even if your the most dominant closer in the world, more times then not, your allowing runners on base.
Learn how baseball works and quit making a jackass out of yourself. My gawddd everything you have posted is pure spew and holds 0 merit.
While I don't entirely agree with Sommy here, calling this the "dumbest shit ever" is a real stretch. There have been far dumber things posted just on this site than "Fernando Rodney isn't a good closer." The negbanging Sommy is getting for this is excessive.
He got neg-banged (I didn't neg him, by the time I got here, he got it enough) because of his dogged insistence on defying all logical and fact-based arguments with "I SAID RODNEY SUCKS. PERIOD."
As I saw this in the morning, I was wondering how a topic on Rodney could have gotten 70 posts, when we won the game.
Look, no one thought Rodney would be the closer at the beginning of the season, heck everyone was drafting Lyon to be the closer in fantasy.
I think he has been great. The problem with him, and it makes us all nervous, is that once out of 4 or 5 games, it seems he can't throw his fastball for a strike. It's not like he walks that many even when this happens, because he always can throw change for the strike, but then hitters can sit on it.
Comparing a player to the best at the position is a losing battle and shows that you are unrealistic. Do you get mad that Inge isn't Longoria?, that Polonco isn't Utley? Your comparing Rodney to the best, Nathan and Papelban, (who actually is leveling off this year), but those are the best.
You can't have the best at every position.
Rodney is a good closer, who can't be trusted, like the majority of closers, to get extra outs in the 8th with the runners ALREADY ON BASE, unlike the best in the game which can, Riveria, Nathan, Paps.
Sommy has put himself in a unlosable argument. He says that Rodney is destined to fail in the future. Then when Rodney blows a game down the stretch, or in the playoffs, he will be the first to claim he was right. Even though, all closers blow games now and then, unless your Gagne 4 years ago.
Anyone have before and after numbers on this thread? I can roughly count around 60-70 negative points due to Sommy spouting off like a fucking knob.
By the way, nice to see you changed your OP to include his save percentage, at least you don't look nearly as fucking stupid as you did last night.
You're a disgrace to L-town and Detroit Tigers fans everywhere.
I did not change my original post at any point. There is no mention (nor was there ever any mention) of save percentage.
Sorry, I meant the part about blowing one save out of 25, I know that's not technically how you calculate save percentage with the goofy ass stat, but I figured you'd understand.
You still didn't even admit that last night.
Yes, I did.
Had I not said that in the post to begin with, there wouldn't be a ton of replies that specifically mention that.
Because you didn't put it in the original post, people pointed it out to you to prove how stupid you sound.
Of course this "problem" (the alleged edit of the original post never happened) could be solved if all edits were watermarked like on other message boards, but this board does not do that.
What's your problem? Sommy expressed an opinion but it doesn't mean he's a disgrace. You always seem to try to start something with your posts.
No surprise, that the King of Kneejerk himself would come to this conclusion.
However, I do believe that the "disgrace" part was a little over the top. He's not a disgrace to L-Town, they have enough of those already.
Stating something like "Rodney is not a good closer. Period" doesn't necessarily lend itself to coming across as an opinion. It comes across as an incorrect statement of fact.
I look forward to you quadruple posting "FUCK Galarraga", "Leyland is an idiot", and other idiotic statements tonight when Galarraga inevitably gives up a homerun.
Have a nice day.
You just know me so well. King of Kneejerk, that's brilliant. I agree that I've reacted too fast/harsh so I'm trying to step away from that and enjoy the games more. But it doesn't change the fact that you're a fucktard.
to separate what people say during games from what they say after them. It's okay to be emotional during games. You can get caught up in the heat of a game. Usually, after the game is over, I'm able to think more rationally.
I will say this, Baseball Prospectus calculates "Reliever Wins added" by taking into account how they pitch, and the leverage of the situation (how close the game is, whether there are men on base, where om base they are), etc. This stat combines both pure pitching results like walks and strikeouts and hits with "clutchness" - they get a better number by performing in close situations, with inherited runners. It is also adjusted given the quality of the opposing hitters that the pitcher faces (the same results against better hitters result in a better WXRL number).
By this metric, Rodney is the 7th most successful relief pitcher in major league baseball this year.
fine season. All the "indicator" stats for Rodney look very good. Can you link that stat from Prospectus for me?
Like I've said all along, I think Rodneys awesome season continues and I have two big reasons for it. Statistically, his line drives have turned into grounders. Second, his fly ball and HR/FB rate have stayed the same as when he had a bad year last year. Often times, a pitchers success can be directly attributed to a fluke fluctuation in HR/FB rate. The fact that Rodney's has NOT changed AND he's gotten better comforts me.
Sommy just got negbanged big time. As a Cubs fan, I'm gonna say quit your whining and watch one of our pitchers give up a three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth again. Kevin Gregg < Todd Jones < Fernando Rodney.
Funny, I was about to say the same thing. We'll take Rodney if you don't want him.
It's clear that you will never change your opinion on Fernando Rodney, despite many people offering you statistics that prove otherwise. I admit that watching Fernando is a nightmare and terrifying, but He gets the job done when the game's on the line whether you want to admit it or not. That's his job.
My advice, take your negbanging and walk away.
Reading Sommy's arguments makes me wish I was Dexter Manley.
It's good to see Sommy basically gave up on his LOLtastic argument today.
Absolutely not; been out of town all day.
I've made my point and stated the facts.
Ryan Perry: 2 batters face 2 Ks where they just simply had no chance.
It really is ashame everyone knows he doesn't have the stuff to ever be a closer though, what a bummer : /
cool thread bro
RYAN FUCKING PERRY!!!