Why does great defense beat great offense?
It is a truism in football that if a great defense plays a great offense that the great defense usually wins. I have seen this happen so many times that I pretty much expect Bama to win.
But I am having a harder time understanding why this is so. Sure, great defenses have great athletes- but so do great offenses. A stud cornerback is equally matched by a stud receiver right? A great defensive lineman is matched by a great offensive lineman- right?
Doesn't the offense always have the advantage of knowing where they are going? Can't they adjust to defensive stunting? Can't the offense go into hurry up mode and stop defensive substitutions? Can't the offense snap the ball before the defense is set?
I would be interested in theories as to why great defenses seem to beat great offenses.
Thanks, in advance, to any who reply- I cannot post again until much later tonight due to work issues.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:15 AM ^
It really sounds creepy as fuck.
Definition of stud
1.1a : a group of animals and especially horses kept primarily for breeding
b : a place (as a farm) where a stud is kept
2.2: studhorse; broadly : a male animal kept for breeding
3.3a : a young man : guy; especially : one who is virile and promiscuous
b : a tough person
January 11th, 2016 at 11:19 AM ^
It didn't sound so creepy when ONJ said it....
January 11th, 2016 at 11:52 AM ^
You've finally found an opportunity to use this GIF! Those months collecting dust in your harddrive have finally paid off.
January 11th, 2016 at 12:14 PM ^
Maybe OP is Olivia Newton John...
January 11th, 2016 at 3:27 PM ^
January 11th, 2016 at 3:33 PM ^
....they're multiplying, and I'm losing control....
January 11th, 2016 at 11:25 PM ^
January 11th, 2016 at 11:23 AM ^
I hung one of my guitars from a wall the other day, and had to locate a stud in which to insert the hanger screws. At first I could not find a stud. Eventually I did find a stud* and screwed directly into it. Twice.
Should I feel dirty?
*Directly above an outlet box and a multiple of 16" away from the corner of the room.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:41 AM ^
you used to find the stud, and if any power tools were involved in the screwing.
But I'm not one to judge.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:47 AM ^
I like to point it at myself and set it off when I'm hanging pictures with my wife.
Surprisingly that hasn't convinced her or gotten me anywhere.
January 11th, 2016 at 12:19 PM ^
nevermind.
January 11th, 2016 at 12:21 PM ^
I used a string with a strong magnet to find the stud (plaster and lath), and confirmed with measurements and the fact that an outlet was vertically beneath. I drilled pilot holes, but did the actual screwing with a bit driver.
I guess what I'm saying is that by properly screwing the stud I felt like it was well-hung.
January 11th, 2016 at 2:26 PM ^
have been put to naughty use.
January 11th, 2016 at 2:10 PM ^
to the word, "work", as being creepy and was all set to give him a +1.
January 11th, 2016 at 3:11 PM ^
January 11th, 2016 at 11:16 AM ^
January 11th, 2016 at 11:19 AM ^
I'd guess it's because offenses generally need to put together multiple pretty good plays in a drive to score, but defenses only need to put together one great play to end a drive. Even if you stick to pretty good plays (and so don't consider forcing turnovers), the defense ends a drive with three in a row, and an offense needs more than that to score.
January 11th, 2016 at 12:41 PM ^
three decent plays that give up less than 10 yards to the offense...
EDIT: this comment was relevant until above poster edited his comment, left my comment the same, because these colors don't run!
January 14th, 2016 at 4:08 AM ^
Did you really post your comment almost an hour and a half after mine, and then claim that I edited it after you posted (which, btw, is not something I can do)? Just checking.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:44 AM ^
Like many have noted above - offense needs a string of successes, defense just needs one.
Also consider one major penalty (10 yards for holding) kills most drives on average teams. Further evidence about the one setback theory.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:54 AM ^
Takes the sarcastic wit right out of my response...considering you ended your first post after saying, "the defense only needs big play". My sarcasm is now irrelevant...which is the only reason I post to MGOBLOG, without sarcasm, who are we?
January 11th, 2016 at 7:33 PM ^
this makes sense- basic Vegas odds favor defense due to the 3 attempts for a first down rule
January 11th, 2016 at 11:45 AM ^
A great book called Scorecasting (Sports version of Freakonomics) that goes into different ideas like this and many others that are thought of in the sports world. Worth the read and then pick up the Gladwell books if you like Scorecasting. Link to Amazon
January 11th, 2016 at 7:33 PM ^
great tip- I will get it
January 11th, 2016 at 11:20 AM ^
This is true in football also.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:36 AM ^
Wait a minute - schools like Vandebilt, Boston College and Missouri would like to know how you improve your situation on offense to the point where scoring is merely hard. I am sure they are willing to hang up and listen at this point bacause what else are they doing on that side of the ball.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:21 AM ^
January 11th, 2016 at 11:21 AM ^
to have offenses that score enough to win. Great offenses still have to have defenses that are adequate enough to hold the other team to a point total lower than their offense.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:27 AM ^
January 11th, 2016 at 12:26 PM ^
But that rarely happens. You might only have one or two punt return touchdowns in a season and maybe one or two interception/fumble returns.
January 11th, 2016 at 1:08 PM ^
2000 Ravens.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:21 AM ^
I'll throw out an idea --
Offenses are subject to the Anna Karenina principle. That is, an offensive play has a particular design and for it to be successful, each part of the design has to work. You don't have to stop or interrupt every single part of the design, you only have to stop one part of it.
Now, that's not exactly true -- good play design leaves options on the table. Maybe the QB can audible at the line, or maybe the RB has multiple holes to look for, or maybe the WR's can adjust routes, and they can all do this based on what the defense is showing.
But still, while better offenses compensate for the Anna Karenina principle by giving themselves more possible paths to "success" on a given play, this (typically) has the secondary effect of complicating the play design making it harder for each player (and the offense as a whole) to execute properly. It's a trade-off.
That's my theory. The Anna Karenina principle.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:29 AM ^
I'd never heard that title before, but I love it. Great combination of engineering and literature.
It's along the same lines as what Hall of Fame pitcher Warren Spahn once said about baseball: "Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing."
January 11th, 2016 at 11:30 AM ^
Beat me to the punch (also didn't know that was the principles name).
Take an example of a deep pass play. In order for it to work for the offense (1) the quarterback needs enough time to make the throw. (2)He needs to throw the ball well enough for the receiver to be able to make the play. (3)The receiver needs to have enough space away from the defender to attempt a catch. (4) The receiver needs to make the catch.
If the defense disrupts one aspect of that play for than likely it is a win for the defense. Almost every type of play can be broken down by this. For a run play almost every block needs to be executed well enough for the runner to find a whole. If one block isn't executed most of the time the defense wins that play.
January 11th, 2016 at 1:10 PM ^
Or as Michigan saw in the past few years... "all" blocks have to be perfect.
January 11th, 2016 at 2:16 PM ^
alot of things wrong and still "win" the play if the offense doesn't execute properly. Is that kind of like the defense is innocent until proven guilty, but the offense is guilty until proven innocent?
January 11th, 2016 at 11:57 AM ^
I think there are many more variables in the path of success in offense than defense. Personnel, coaching, scheming, execution, consistency. All exist for defense but it's probalby easier to adust defense than offense on any particular day and go back to what the team is good at . I think this is really what you are saying and it makes perfect sense.
Also the pscyhologica factor of being able to "shut the other team down" especially early is HUGE if it can be sustained all the better. Go out and smack them in the mouth...you hear that all the time.
Another factor is perception. I think most people see a "barn burner" e.g a 50-51 game as a battle of bad offenses vs. good defense. We also attribute a low score to better defense. We are more programmed reward a good defense with a shutout or near shutout than an offense with "running up the score" on a bad team.
January 11th, 2016 at 7:36 PM ^
Why is this called Anna Karenina?
BTW- your principle may explain why instinctive, dual threat QB's are so destructive to any defense. They do not rely on everything working right to gain yards and can improvise in chaos. Vince Young was a hard guy to cage- so was John Elway.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:22 AM ^
That's what my dad always said.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:23 AM ^
January 11th, 2016 at 11:24 AM ^
There are only 6 guys on offense that can make a play; they other 5 are just there to assist.
All 11 players on defense can make a play.
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January 11th, 2016 at 11:24 AM ^
I don't think it is the case. Look at Boston College this year.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:25 AM ^
Rejecting the premise. Very Harbaugh-esqe.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:26 AM ^
It's a "trusim," but that doesn't mean it's true. Virtually every national champion is strong on both sides of the ball. There are exceptions such as 2010 Auburn (great offense, mediocre defense) and 2002 Ohio State (great defense, mediocre offense), but you generally can't win it all unless both units are among the nation's best.
By FEI, Alabama has the best defense in the country, but Clemson is 6th. So if Clemson wins, that isn't exactly a victory for offense over defense, because Clemson's defense is pretty great too.
January 11th, 2016 at 12:11 PM ^
January 11th, 2016 at 12:32 PM ^
Great Defense, rather pedestrian offense. The 2002 OSU offense scored three more points per game than did Michigan's 1997 offense.
January 11th, 2016 at 12:42 PM ^
Both were ranked in the 40s nationally. Offense had increased overall in the interim.
Also, OSU gave up 3 points more per game.
January 11th, 2016 at 1:36 PM ^
Mike Nugent.
January 11th, 2016 at 11:32 AM ^
always knows where they are going, and that is a great advantage. However, most offenses are built off of repetition. No matter the competition level, the opposing defense is always going to know the basic strategy of what the offense is going to do. You can look at every team in college football and see what they are trying to do and who they are trying to get it done with.
To build off that, offenses are always trying to exploit a weakness in the D. Did you see how OSU went uptempo run-run-run-run right at us? They knew we were weak without Glasgow upfront and tired.
Defenses win because they can do one thing: not let the opposition easily do what they want to because they have the talent and scheme necessary. But the key is to not let the "role players" of the offense beat you while doing this. For example, if it takes the defense 9 guys in the box to stop OSU's running game, are you not going to get burned by the pass? Virtually every offense will be frustrated when their stars aren't getting their customary yards.
Also, it comes down the simple math: the ball on 90% of offensive plays is going to be handled by the QB, the top running option on the field or one of the top 2 or 3 pass catching targets on the field. So the defense really gets to play 11 on 5 or 6.
January 11th, 2016 at 7:39 PM ^
I have always wondered about this counter arguement- why don't offenses always go after the weak spot of a defense over and over? I have seen it done to great effect- but many OC's seem to be hesitent at just banging away at a weak spot. Why?