Why are we not shooting off picks?
As fun as it is to talk about cars, albums, and etc., I have something that I think that has not been discussed.
While listening to Mgopodcast, they were lamenting the fact that (lack of) pick & roll effectiveness is one of the major reasons why this year's offense is worse than that of recent past. While they discussed a bit about why that might be so, I think they missed something that is very obvious; we do not shoot off the pick.
When Michigan offense was really cooking, Stauskas would receive a pick and if the defender trailed or went under the pick, Stauskas would just pull up and shoot a three. Because this was a very effective shot, the opponent set aggressive hedges and what not to try to minimize it, which caused space for the roll and easy layups.
When I watch this year's offense, I see almost no attempt to shoot off the pick, even when the defender goes underneath and there is a foot or two open space. I don't understand why we are not taking advantage of this opening when the other team is readily giving it to us. I would think Robinson would shoot close to 50% with the open space he has and when defense starts to over commit, it would open up other things. I am just not sure why this is not happening.
Conversely, we hedge everytime off the pick and because our centers are slow to recover (compared to Mitch or Morgan), our defense becomes discombobulated and open shots happen regularly off of them.
Has anyone else noticed this? Is there a reason why we are not shooting off the pick? Why are we hedging so aggressively when other teams are not?
Hi, I'm Nik Stauskas and I have DirecTV :D
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...and I'm Duncan Robinson, and I have cable :(
Levert was easily the best Michigan had at this, but I don't think the others are consistent enough with their release to make it efficient.
Walton is too short that the defense can recover (and he rushes his shot off the dribble I feel like).
Irvin has a quick release but is better inside the arc well pulling up; he seems to leave a lot short when he doesn't step into the 3. On the plus side he does have a quick release, but I don't think his handle has improved enough to make him a real threat probing or attacking the basket consistently.
This would be the reason I think Robinson would struggle right now. You need to threaten to attack the rim to get guys to play off. He doesn't have the handle/athleticism to push guys back, and he doesn't have the court vision yet to make the defense pay when he probes. He has height and a decent release, and I think early in the season when he was hot he did some pick and roll pull up shots, but I think that went away when he started struggling a bit (essentially by B1G play).
But when I see Robinson play a pick, defenders usually go under and there is enough room there for Robinson to get a clean shot. He has a pretty quick release and there is more than enough opportunity there, but it seems that he is much more comfortable coming off a pick without the ball for a catch and shoot. However, that takes more time and he does not get enough space on those plays.
and no matter how many times I scream at my TV, he still won't shoot it.
now he won't because he can't hit the broad side of a barn. He was jacking up all kinds of threes earlier in the season but be hasn't made one since January so he is becomming much more selective in his shot selection (which only increases the importance to him that he makes every shot which further destroys his confidence when he shoots poorly because of the increased pressure on every shot he takes). A shooting slump is a mean SOB.
I think the biggest problem is that the guy who should be shooting off of picks has been in about a 10-game shooting slump.
If Robinson started shooting like he is capable of again, Michigan offense would suddenly become WAY better. And don't tell me Robinson is struggling just because people are Ding him up. He is missing a ton of wide open looks. Earlier in the season, it was almost shocking when he missed a wide open 3.
Sure, some of the shots are open, but it's not a coincidence that he's struggling now against quicker, bigger, better prepared defenders instead of during the Delaware State portion of the schedule. As a commenter above mentioned, it's a vicious cycle: Missed shots leads to lower confidence, which leads to more missed shots (even ones that once were automatic).
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You're not screaming LOUD enough....that's the problem!
2. Irvin and Dawkins would seem to be the best pick and roll options but both are very limited off the dribble so people just close hard on them and they have no move
3. We can't seem to shoot, which is a problem
Walton is doing quite a bit more of pulling up off of screens but see reasons 1 and 3 for why this has not been that great of a development.
Every game, Donnal and Doyle give these half energy screens. They rarely make any contact with the defender, BUT the ball carriers also need to rub shoulders with the bigs. I think the bigger issue is we lack a go to guy that can not only drive well off the screen but also stop and be a threat to shoot. Burke, Stauskas, and LeVert were all good with both aspects. Walton is getting bullied at the rim and Irvin struggles a lot with his handle and his very long release doesnt help in that situation. I like MAAR driving a lot but his shot is very hot and cold. Donnal has greatly improved his hands going toward the basket and one reason I think Wagner was preferred earlier in the season.
points. I actually think the biggest issue with our offense right now is the complete absence of anything mid-range. Dawkins looked like he was becomming lethal at the "GR 3 12 footer" for a while at the end of last year but it has completely disappeared. With the exception of a couple of Irvin transition pulls up, we either score at the rim or from deep. There is absolute nothing in between.
The screens by the bigs aren't great, but I'd say the majority of the problem comes from the ballhandler. Once the screen is set, the big can't really move. It is up to the guy with the ball to actually use the screen in the proper way by forcing his defender into that screen. Most of the time, our ballhandlers aren't forcing a decision from defenders on going under or over the screen.
Because we don't have anyone with that skill
Exactly. Stauskas was an early entry NBA lottery pick. We don't have those kinds of players anymore.
It's the answer to all basketball threads this season.
why this? why that?
Answer: previously we had a team with mulitple NBA level players, now we have a team with only 1 and he ain't playing.
We could put five NBA players on the floor at the same time. No wonder we made it to the title game. Not to mention we had Levert, Albrech, and Morgan, who were all solid college players, coming off the bench.
Burke (Lottery Pick)
Stauskas (Lottery Pick)
Hardaway JR (First Round Pick)
Robinson III (Late 2nd Round Pick)
McGary (First Round Pick)
---------------------------
Albrech (solid backup PG)
LeVert (Likely NBA draft pick, even with injuries)
Morgan (All B1G Defensive Team)
You'd have thought, with Beilein's track record, we'd be getting more out of Walton, Irvin, Donnal, and Chatman by now.
Please have enough class to not refer to any current player as a "turd."
I'm still waiting for the recruiting bump from that title game appearance.
Because Obama wants to shut down Gitmo.
/s
know that our bigs either can't catch the ball or make easy layups so they have nothing to worry about on D with them and then can focus soley on the guy with the ball... other reasons as mentioned above, our shooters aren't shooting that well right now and since we don't rebound that well there is no one there to get the missed shots...
call me crazy but spike was actually really good at this.. i remember last year several times he would come off a screen and pop a 3.. his loss was pretty devastating to our offense. he was a great ball handler and now we have to watch irvin try to dribble and it is just excruciating
Yea spike was terrific at times off the screen. That dude made 7 footers look silly shooting over them, swooping under them, or bounce passing a ball too low for them to reach. Real baller.
also did not hurt that he had fairly accurate and effortless range from up and including 27 feet. A lot of people kind of treat his departure from the team as a mere afterthought to Levert. I think those people forget how good Spike was last year.
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Or unathletic 5s. People rip on Beilein for his poor recruiting but I think the bigger problem is his poor roster management. Next year we will have 5 or 6 centers on the team none of which are top of the B1G scholarship worthy. Thats just poor planning.
The 2013 team had McGary, Morgan, Bielfeldt, Horford, and McLimans. That wasn't a problem.
Michigan needs to get one every year. Last year showed us that while Michigan needs to have either a 5-star talent (McGary) or a veteran at center. The offense can operate effectively with freshman at guard or wing, but center is a lot harder to fill unless you're getting great recruits (which Michigan is not the last 2-3 years).
Michigan needs time to develop their centers and when factoring attrition into the equation, that means they have to keep the flow of prospects steady. I think the Davis/Teske recruiting double-shot is exactly the right decision. In 2017-18 they'll have: Doyle (SR), Teske (SO), and Davis (RS FR) plus whoever emerges from the Donnal/Wagner/Wilson scrum. That finally sounds about right for class balance.
The bigger problem is the glut of 4/5 tweeners on the team. Donnal, Wagner, Wilson, and to a lesser extent Chatman are all similar players who are not physically capable of being quality starting 5s in the big ten. Nor are they skilled or athletic enough to be starting 4s for Michigan. Having 1 or 2 of these tweeners is fine, but Michigan keeps recruiting them every year and hasn't found much success. THAT is the poor planning part, butit's also just poor recruiting (because Jaylen Brown or Tate or Denzel Valentine would probably have been awesome as a Michigan 4)
Even a theoretical prototype of what Beilein wants (Smotrycz) seemed to struggle with his role and looked more effective as a small 5 than a 4. The better bet seems to be true wings (Novak, G.Robinson, D.Robinson, Irvin, Dawkins) playing at the 4.
So yeah, poor planning and poor recruiting both, but the problem isn't too many centers at all.
Take the Langford situation. We dropped Langford because there wasn't room, but then we later offered Bridges even though there still wasn't room. If U-M had been willing to over-offer all along, Langford might've been ours.
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Walton is too short and doesn't seem to be a good shooter off the dribble. Irvin's ridiculous shot mechanics make his shot blockable if anyone is in the vicinity. He must have one of the highest blocked jump shot percentages in college hoops.
noticed something and I thought it was just my imagination but after watching some games down the stretch it is a real thing. Irvin's shot mechanics are much different on the road than they are at home. At Crisler, he has this weird swooping release that comes from the left side of his body and never looks like it has a chance. His shot looks different on the road, the second half of the Maryland game is a perfect example. Late in that game Irvin his a three off of a double screen that was absolutely pure and had no wasted movement at all. He does not shoot like that at home. I am telling you, it is a real thing.
can't do any of that stuff. I can write words, that is the limit of my blogging expertise.
And a weak criticism for PGs. Burke and Albrecht are short too, but more than capable of running the offense.
Being a poor shooter off the dribble is a valid point, but he's also been a bad finisher at the rim.
Stu was NOT good at running the offense. Michigan was far better off when Stu embraced his role as a defensive stopper and offensive after-thought. Irvin's a lot better at manning the offense.
Irvin's ready to be a Robin (like LeVert was to Stauskas) but not quite at Batman-level yet. He has improved steadily though, so people shouldn't give up on him IMO. He's still the best candidate to run the offense next year.
imo, he is our best bet to run the offense. he has a solid handle and can finish at the rim. he is also a decent shooter. if improves his vision/passing, he would be perfect.
improvement from irvin's handle would be huge too. that way, walton could focus on being a spot-up shooter, something he was very good at his frosh season. his drives in the lane seem to have gotten worse the past year or so, and he turns the ball over lot when in the paint.
He's hitting 33% from 3s and 70% from the line. While an improvement from last year, it's still very bad for a guard and not enough to keep defenses from sagging off him and making the roll man irrelevant. Pair that with 2.3 assists vs 1.5 TO/game (indicative of limited passing ability) and you see why he's ineffective as a primary PNR threat.
Irvin's not been much better at passing (3 assists vs 2 TO), but at least teams respect his shot (37% from 3 for his career despite this year's woeful slump).
One thing of note is that MAAR doesn't make too many goofy turnovers, though. Or at least in contrast to the seemingly many careless mistakes that have led to Irvin coughing the ball up.
Nobody can shoot even open looks consistently.
Can this argument please die?
It's not going to happen. Nor is Walton going to turn into Trey Burke - though that's slightly less infeasible than the Robinson to Stauskas transformation.
There are 3 elements to being a good PNR ball-handler: shooting, driving, and passing. Harris, Morris, Burke, and Stauskas all had at least 2 of the 3 skills. Rhak and Robinson are 1/3.
Robinson is just a shooter (yes - He is. Some people just are. Irvin's taken 2 years to slowly expand his game beyond just-shooting and he's still not great at anything else. Not everyone is going to be Stauskas. It's likely NO ONE is going to be for Michigan anytime soon.)
Irvin's the closest thing Michigan has to a quality PNR ball-handler. While he's a very good shooter, he's barely OK at driving and below average at passing. Walton's not good enough at the lead spot, despite being an EXCELLENT complementary player.
The other piece of the problem is the roll man. Mark Donnal's reached a basic level of competancy that none of the other bigs have, but he's not scaring anyone either - thus making the ball-handler's job more difficult. But that's another position and issue.
Looking ahead to next year, Michigan needs to figure out if Irvin/Walton have that next gear of if they are better off handing the keys to the offense to Simpson or Watson. They also desperately need Doyle to take a big step forward, because he's the only big physically capable of being a plus player on the other end (pending Teske and Davis, who will presumably need some seasoning before being on-floor assets).