Where will UM be in the BCS standings?
but Okie State sure deserves to be #2. Don't let the SEC bias rule.
Okie State vs current BCS top 25: 5-0
Alabama vs current BCS top 25: 2-1
I just can't buy that a team with the 102nd ranked defense in FBS can be the 2nd best team in the country.
Posting all the way from Arizona as "grsbmd"; I got you Rodriguez...
I can't either, but who the hell wants a rematch of a horribly boring game? I can't argue LSU-ALA, but I would much rather see LSU-OSU, as I think most of the country would. If it's not LSU-OSU, I'm going to occupy the BCS!
I hate the idea of putting together a game because it sounds fun rather than picking who you tnk are the two best teams. It ruins the integrity of the BCS (lol I said "integrity of the BCS")
Yeah I don't really buy it either. The Big 12 has awful D, but if we're gonna use the BCS, then it sure seems like Okie State has a better resume than Alabama if you can look past the presumed SEC superiority.
with inflated defensive stats from playing a top heavy, but otherwise over-rated conference should automatically be the national champs without competition from another top conference.
Sure, they give up a lot of yardage, but their points allowed is much better (though not great)- middle of the pack in the NCAA there- and they are fantastic at forcing turnovers.
What if those defensive numbers reflect the fact that they have played 5 teams in the top 25?
And what if they beat all of those teams, despite their defense?
I'm all about defense in general, but the case against OkSt doesn't depend on anything other than their awful loss to Iowa State. Let's not kid ourselves.
That being said, that awful loss should not proclude them from a game against LSU, simply because LSU should not have to beat Alabama again, particularly after beating them at home.
The stats seem awfully deceptive to me. I've seen them play quite a few times this year and I haven't thought their defense was actually nearly as bad as that ranking suggests. I think it has a lot to do with playing a number of quite good offenses (kind of like how the SEC defenses are inflated by playing so many bad offenses) and being opposite of an offense that consistently puts them back on the field quickly. I'm willing to bet that Oklahoma State's defense was near the top of the country in number of drives against.
I agree. Alabama had their chance at home and lost. They didn't win their conference and they didn't win their division. Give another conference a shot at the SEC champ.
13th or 14th
12 or 13. Five teams should/may drop below us.
I'm worried that MSU won't drop below us and Baylor will jump us. I really hope Houston will drop 10 spots. But I don't know if they will.
As long as MSU falls one spot behind in the Human polls we will be ahead of them because we are already stonger in the computers. Houston will be behind us, Georgia will, Oklahoma will, good shot Va Tech will, and Baylor jumping us was always a possiblilty but not a probability. There is decent gap between them and us in the BCS.
it was a close game and they dropped a ton of spots. Would expect Houston to drop even more since the game wasn't as close.
They have to be in the top 14. Georgia and Houston will be out. Oklahoma has 3 losses and just got hammered by OK ST. They should drop out as well. MSU will have 3 losses, so there is a chance they drop out of the top 14 as well. TCU and Baylor both won impressively, but Baylor has 3 losses. I do not see how they could jump Michigan. I know the computers love the Big 12, but Michigan will be a way better draw than Baylor. It will also be interesting to see where Va Tech ends up at. They got drilled twice by a 3 loss Clemson team. I wil be surprised if Michigan is not in a BCS game.
was ranked #5 today before their game today. Their conference schedule was terrible.
I'll say 12, and unjustly in the Sugar Bowl against TCU (unjust because in a just universe we're in Fiesta against Stanford) because the voters won't put OkSU in the title game.
It would be easier to get a PhD in math than to understand how this BCS will play out
It's easy to understand how the BCS works - just get a dart board...
OU and UGA are going to drop out of the Top 14, along with Houston and VT.
I think Sparty stays ahead of us, and may even move up a spot. But with four teams dropping out ahead of them I don't see them falling to much at all. More importantly, even if they stay ahead of us and Baylor passes us, I find it hard to believe that we're not in the Top 14.
The question is does TCU catch us too? I doubt it, but if they do it takes one BCS at-large slot away. I'm pretty sure though that if we're in the top-14, we'll get a spot in a BCS game. TCU may take a spot from Baylor/KSU, but we're hard to pass up.
I predict Wiscy in the Top 10, Baylor at 11, Sparty at 12, M at 13 and TCU sneaking in at 14.
As they're 18 right now it could be interesting. I think the only team that might drop below them is OU.
Now I'm more worried about potential Sugar Bowl opponents. If OKSU makes the title game, I definitely DO NOT want to see Alabama in the Sugar.
I'd love to play Alabama in the Sugar, would be good practice for our first game next season.
Call me naive but I would love to see that match up. It's been hard to really gauge how good our team is this year in comparison to the rest of the country. I think we would put up a decent fight.
If TCU is in the top 16, Bama replaces us in the Sugar and would play TCU. That would put us in the Fiesta, I'm pretty sure.
Don't know if I'll be able to sleep tonight.
8:15 EST on ESPN I do believe.
8 pm on espn tomorrow
Is it different because of the bowls or am I just far off and the polls always come out sunday night?
The human polls come out in the morning and that is 1/3 of the calculation (I believe). It will give you a better idea of how the BCS will shake up...But the computers + Harris don't come out until night.
You're thinking of the AP/Coaches polls. Those come out with the Sunday papers.
Then those factor into the BCS rankings, which are released on ESPN at 8:00 Sunday nights.
I don't know if i'm going to make it to tomorrow night though.
They asked to be taken out of it a few years back. So it's the USA Today Coaches poll and the mysterious Harris poll for 2/3, then the averaged of the middle 4 (drop high and low) scores of the 6 computer polls for the other 1/3.
CBS Jerry Palm has UM playing West Virginia in the Sugar Bowl.
I would like that match up. It could be called the "Teams Who Drove Rich Rodriguez Out" bowl.
But seriously, that would be one of the best senarios I could think of.
for a dollar.
WVu would be the perfect opponent in terms of our ability to win relative to the other possible BCS teams, but it would be the most annoying in terms of fans in the stands. Outside the BiG and ND, I'd say WVU fans hate UM the most, and they definitely are NOT gentle fans.... It could get ugly in the stands on this one.
Since OSU absolutely crushed Oklahoma.... is there a chance that they pass them up in the BCS?
If OSU ends up in the Championship, does that mean we would play Bama in the sugar bowl?
BCS rarely moves unless a team loses, exception would be two high ranked teams that are close in the standings actually play each other. So i doubt it. I see UoM at 13 and no higher. MSU will be ranked below us. The loss will kill them at the polls. But the computer will keep them in the top 20.
Hello BCS bowl. GO Blue
please no I don't want a back to back bama game. There should be one and that is next year.
agree. we would get killed if we face them in a bowl too. lets play them next year.
As long as UM is in the top 14 a BCS bowl can pick 'em. It seems the consensus is that if the Sugar Bowl can, it will. Would have liked to play an undefeated Houston, though.
Absolutely nobody on earth has any clue what will happen. Chances of us getting to a BCS are... decent? i think? i dont know. Im not smart enough to figure out any of this. I need smarter people to explain it to me, but I don't trust them either.
we extrapolate based on facts:
1. bowls look to maximize money and tv exposure. it is paramount. OSU cheese last year is exhibit A.
2. while bowls do factor rankings in selecting their at large team, they factor making money more.
3. money equates to traveling fan bases and tv ratings.
4. no available at large top 14 team this year touches Michigan in re 3 above. our only peers are ohio state, notre dame, oklahoma, texas, nebraska, usc, tennesse and penn state in terms of traveling fan bases and tv ratings, and incredibly, we are the only one of them who will be in the top 14 this year. unbelievable.
thus, assuming lsu v bama, and given there are 4 at large berths available this year (both sugar spots, fiesta spot, orange spot), it is safe to assume we will be one of the four selections.
Recent ones I can find...
Thats what I can find for now... please add if you all find more!
MOAR PROJECTIONS! Now GO!!!!
Shit, I dont like our chances vs Stanford
My random guess:
3 OK ST
17 SOUTHERN MISS
25 FLORIDA STATE
Baylor all the way to #11? A find it hard to imagine that a 9-3 Baylor team would jump 6 spots and pass a 10-2 Michigan team just because they beat a very mediocre Texas team at home. I think it's more likely to see Michigan at 11 and Baylor at 12. Also unlikely that MSU falls that far. They'll probably be around 16 or 17
No way Oklahoma will drop all the way to 19, CPUs love them too much
Can't edit, but flip MSU and Oklahoma. I think MSU outranks the Sooners by virtue of such a close game. I think Baylor jumps us for the same reason we added games later in the season - the "what have you done for me lately" syndrome that nudges voters to vote for winners they saw win big that week more than dormant teams.
We cannot play Alabama because of the pick order.
If Okie State passes Alabama, the order is:
Sugar Bowl (replacing LSU)
Fiesta Bowl (replacing OkSU)
Fiesta Bowl (rotating first pick, they've got it this year)
Sugar would take Alabama, obviously. Fiesta then has the next two picks: Stanford is guaranteed a spot for finishing #4, TCU probably gets in at #16, West Virginia as the Big East winner and then basically between us and Virginia Tech, and we win that comparison. So Fiesta takes us and Stanford because: duh. Sugar then might take WVU over TCU, it's hard to say.
Calculus if Alabama gets the nod:
Sugar picks first to replace LSU and goes with us becuase we're rich. Then Fiesta picks someone to play OkSU who is there for sure because of Big 12 contracts. They take Stanford. Then Sugar picks between WVU and TCU as before.
If OKst does pass Bama (and I really hope they do) then I think what you wrote here is spot on. I hope it works out this way too. should be a good game.
Only one thing wrong with your analysis. If Alabama falls to #3 Stanford loses their guaranteed at large spot (#4 only gets an automatic at large if #3 is a conference champion).
I still think Stanford would get an at large bid in that scenario, but it wouldn't be guaranteed.
Oh right. Damn. I'm so close to understaning this mess. Still they get in for being 11-1 in a major conference.
Don't be such a Debbie Downer!
This presumes worst-case in every case. Unlikely. Lighten up.
Clemson dominating Va Tech will certainly move them into the top 15, maybe 14. MSU playing very well tonight could be a huge problem. The BCS doesn't seem to love UM so much, dropping them despite winning last week. MSU could stay ahead of Michigan because of their head-to-head even with three losses.
Baylor shouldn't jump us, but Oklahoma may stay ahead, because they are ...well...Oklahoma. If Oklahoma drops out, Baylor might replace them on the strength of RG III's popularity and Heisman swag.
It will be close and I think we........get 14th...or...15th.
MSU is a good team and they played well. Although Lewis did a boneheaded thing, that was a fairly lame running into the kicker call. I think MSU would fair batter than Wisco against Oregon, but both would get embarassed in the end. Wisconsin will not be able to keep up with Oregon, I don't think. Their defense will get gashed.
After watching Houston get thrashed, I wish they would have won and we could have played them. I think we could have pounded them. Keenum's ability to pass for so many yards and TDs had me rooting for Southwest Missouri. If we get in, who will we get. I think if we get in now, the opponent could be tougher than Houston. If we get Arkansas, that might not be a good thing.
Dropping behind us: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Georgia, Sparty, Houston
Possibly leaping us: Baylor (i be like DANG those guys can play this year)
Personally, I'd put the Pokes in the NCG, so Bama in Sugar, UM plays Stanford in Fiesta. (My undergrad v. my grad) (and there's no twinge of conflict in me, I bleed Maize n Blue). But if its Bama vs the Mad Hatter, then we play TCU in Sugar. Either way.. SUH-WEEEET!
I be like dang.
These teams rated above us lost:
#5 Virginia Tech (by 28)
#6 Houston (by 21)
#10 Oklahoma (by 34)
#13 Michigan State (by 3)
#14 Georgia (by 32)
These teams ranked within 6 spots of us won:
#17 Baylor (by 24 over #22 Texas)
#18 TCU (by 47 over UNLV)
#20 Clemson (by 28 over #5 Virginia Tech)
For us to make the BCS we must net 2 positions. Of the teams ahead of us that lost there's no doubt Oklahoma and Georgia will drop behind us, and I think there's a good chance Michigan State and Houston do too. I also don't think there's any way for TCU to jump us (UNLV is just too bad for the win to mean much).
So even if Baylor and Clemson both jump us we're in as long as either Michigan State or Houston drop below us. I like those odds.
I don't see a 3 loss Clemson team that lost to a terrible NC State team jumping us. Baylor, however, probably will since they beat a ranked UT team.
Neither do I, but I'm not willing to say it's a sure thing.
Completely disagree. Nothing beats experience.
You realize that 80% of the colts would start on LSU right? Sure, maybe Jefferson over Painter, maybe Honey Badger plays kick returner and they have a guy or two on the line, but NFL teams are all All Conference or close to All Conference players.
Yeah CP3guy is right. Id even put the number of Colts starters in a combined team at 99%
When people assert that X college team is better than X NFL team, they fail to realize that that NFL team is made of basically an all-star college team from the last decade. Any college team would get crushed by any NFL team
No. 6 Houston: Destroyed by no. 24 Southern Miss. One loss with the rest of their joke of a schedule wll cause them to plummet down the polls. UM will be ahead of them.
No. 10 Oklahoma: Destroyed by no. 3 Okie St. Will they drop far enough to fall behind UM? Unsure.
No. 13 Sparty: Lost in epic SPARTY NO fashion to No. 15 Wisconsin, should fall below UM with three losses, however, no. 15 Wisconsin will move up.
No. 14 Georgia: Destroyed by LSU (in the 2nd half anyways), will fall below UM.
Depending on how badly they shoot up Clemson for beating VT again, and what they do with Baylor, I'd pin UM at around 13, should certainly be in the top 14.
K, so we pass Houston, MSU, Georgia, and Wisconsin = 12
But, Baylor will probably pass us up. But could TCU and Clemosn pass us too? That would give us #15...
TCU won't pass us. They beat a bad UNLV team. Baylor will jump us, and I just dont see a 3 loss Clemson team jumping us either.
Why the hell does everyone think Baylor will pass us?! We have a better record, better name recognition with pollsters, and we were already ahead of them. We also don't have a blow-out loss on our record.
that the computers are 1/3 of the vote. Baylor will be miles ahead of Michigan in the computer polls (and, in fact, was miles ahead even before they thumped Texas). If they're close to Michigan in the human polls, that's probably enough for them to jump us.
little nervous to be honest. I think UM should pass Houston, Georgia and Oklahoma (provided the human voters drop them way down like they should). Not so sure they pass MSU and Virginia Tech though. Both Baylor (even though they don't deserve it) and Clemson could pass UM. That is what makes me nervous, because regardless of what ends up happening it will be close.
I still think it is joke that K-State is in front of Michigan, based on what I have seen watching a couple of their games. They basically have a slower bruising version of Denard at QB, worse skill position players than Michigan and a defense that is statistically worse than UM's by a good margin.
you couldn't play in the National Championship game if you didn't win your conference. Michigan had its shot to beat Ohio, then it was someone else's turn.
This year you don't have to win your conference because the BCS is infected with SEC bias and flat out bullcrap lobbying.
2006 has nothing to do with 2011
in debate, which is why legal doctrine is so often based on it. It does not rule arguments, but it certainly contributes to them.
Michigan was #2, lost by 3 to the #1 team in the road, and was passed over largely because 1) didn't win the conference, 2) "they had their shot".
This is very relevant to the current scenarios.
But they weren't an SEC team and didn't have Gary Danielson do a 3 1/2 hour informercial on their behalf just before the final vote.
Just so you guys know the stuff used for the computers doesn't use margin of victory so the amount sparty lost by doesn't really matter, I guess it could impact the human polls but they are really gonna get hurt in the computers, close lose or blowout just doesn't impact the computers.
The savaging we have been taking b/c of the "politically correct" computer rankings (which ignore how close the game was) will now work in our favor. Three-loss Sparty should drop, and there will be a decent number of pollsters who drop them beneath us for the same reason.
No way tcu passes us and I would be shocked if clemson did
Even if the BCS does not ditch the LSA/Alabama rematch (which it should; OK State made their case today), the delta between the teams dropping and teams moving up should get us to 14.
Why is everyone thinking we won't jump MSU? They are a three loss team who got destroyed by two teams we beat. Losing late is always the worst thing to happen to one's BCS dreams.
has been to not punish teams very much for losing in conference championship games.
3. Oklahoma State
5. Boise State
8. Kansas State
9. South Carolina
15. Michigan State
Think VT will fall out of the top 15? I mean I guess I can see it with how far Clemsonfell when they were no. 8. And I think Boise gets jumped by a couple teams that were in the top 10 behind them that won their CGs. Other than that, I think this is solid. Idk about as high as 12 though.
if Sparty was eligible, but passed over in favor of us. That said, this is gonna come out pretty close, so probably best if they drop out altogether.
That's exactly the kind of vitriol I've come to appreciate on this board. You sir, have arrived.
At the beginning of the season if someone said Gator or Outback bowl I'd be elated. Sooooo Capital One or BCS is gravy...
...With that said, please please please top 14! Daddy wants to go to Nola!
I'm not a big fan of Lou Holtz, but he just said what many on this board are thinking. If there wasn't a rematch of 1OSU vs 2UM in 2006, then there shouldn't be a rematch of Bama/LSU. It was one of the first times I've seen Mark May have nothing to say, although I could see his SEC homer wheels turning.
Well, if Lou said it shouldn't happen, it's inevitable that it will. That sucks. The SEC already gets media BJs on a weekly basis, I'd hate to see them get SEC championship game II.
That is not what he said, he said he'd be shocked if WVU was not ranked highest/won Big East
No idea, but I have a feeling that the Blog will be packed, whether its joyful celebration or pissed ranting I have no idea...
People for some reason think Texas is still good. They aren't. They just get the benefit of the doubt because they are Texas. So apparently a win by Baylor looks good, but it shouldn't. Imma be pissed if Baylor jumps us...
but what do I know, houston should drop behind us, state SHOULD drop behind us Baylor SHOULD stay behind us. Georgia is definitely behind us.
If I remember right, one or two of the computer polls count only one win when a team beats the same team twice in a season. (Lazy algorithms.) This may lessen how far Virginia Tech falls. I strongly suspect they'll remain above Michigan.
Oklahoma will also remain ahead of Michigan in all or almost all computer rankings.
I think both Michigan's chance at 14 and Ok State's chance at Nat Champ game will be close.
Ok State will be #2 in most, but probably not all computer polls. They'll need to eclipse Stanford in nearly every voter's mind and take about half of Alabama's #2 votes.
Computer polls are only 1/3, I think they'll drop far enough in the 2 human polls to fall behind us.
say we benefitted a lot today. For what that's worth.
Jesus, that means it didn't benefit us.
You forgot about Houston
We should make it into the top 14 and end up in the Sugar Bowl. College football needs Michigan in one of their prime time events. O$U sucks and MSU (Little Brother) is an irrelevant program. GO BLUE!!!
I've had to bust this out
Herby and Musky trying to sell a rematch. I'm tired of the eyeball test bullshit. What kind of metric is that?
Does anyone know of any good BCS Bowl parties?
FWIW, BCS Guru projects Michigan will get into the top 14.
People keep worrying about Michigan State being ahead of Michigan, but looking at the season in its entirety (ie, ignoring previous rankings), does Michigan State even deserve to be ahead of Nebraska? Both are 2-2 against ranked opponents, with one loss to an unranked opponent, and Nebraska wins head to head.
Also, if you look at the history of the BCS, it's very rare that a 3 loss team gets ranked ahead of a 2 loss team from an AQ conference. The last exception was in 2006, when Virginia Tech and Rutgers were just behind Arkansas (whose 3 losses were to top 5 opponents). In 2005, Louisville has 2 losses and a few 3 loss teams were ahead of them. And in 2004, there were a few 3 loss teams ahead of 2 loss Wisconsin, but Wisconsin started out 9-0 before losing their last 2 games badly.
There's only been two other teams with 2 losses from AQ conferences (in addition to the aforementioned ones) that didn't finish in the top 14 of the BCS rankings, just because there were 14 better teams with 2 or fewer losses ahead of them.
Looking at the current year, there's going to be 10-12 teams with 2 or fewer losses ahead of us (depends on how far Houston falls, and if TCU jumps us). Even though we admittedly have the weakest resume of the 2 loss teams, we're not a flailing 2004 Wisconsin, and we're not in a crappy AQ conference like Louisville. I think the big question will be how the voters feel about being 2-2 against top teams with 3 losses, versus 1-1 against top teams with 2 losses. That will determine whether Michigan State/Georgia/Oklahoma drop below us. But given my initial comment about the similarity between Michigan State and Nebraska, one would have to think the odds are in our favor.
BCS Guru's projected BCS standings:
I agree this is pretty damn close. All of the losers shouldn't drop below TCU, or not enough to get them to 16. If this list is accurate, I believe it would be Alabama vs K State in the Sugar, Michigan vs Standford in the Sugar
....EXCEPT I think Alabama will go to the NCG instead of OSU even though I think it is BS. If that happens, I think we'll play K State in the Sugar.
3 loss Oklahoma definitely drops below us.