things go poorly
Recent ones I can find...
Thats what I can find for now... please add if you all find more!
MOAR PROJECTIONS! Now GO!!!!
Shit, I dont like our chances vs Stanford
My random guess:
3 OK ST
17 SOUTHERN MISS
25 FLORIDA STATE
Baylor all the way to #11? A find it hard to imagine that a 9-3 Baylor team would jump 6 spots and pass a 10-2 Michigan team just because they beat a very mediocre Texas team at home. I think it's more likely to see Michigan at 11 and Baylor at 12. Also unlikely that MSU falls that far. They'll probably be around 16 or 17
No way Oklahoma will drop all the way to 19, CPUs love them too much
Can't edit, but flip MSU and Oklahoma. I think MSU outranks the Sooners by virtue of such a close game. I think Baylor jumps us for the same reason we added games later in the season - the "what have you done for me lately" syndrome that nudges voters to vote for winners they saw win big that week more than dormant teams.
We cannot play Alabama because of the pick order.
If Okie State passes Alabama, the order is:
Sugar Bowl (replacing LSU)
Fiesta Bowl (replacing OkSU)
Fiesta Bowl (rotating first pick, they've got it this year)
Sugar would take Alabama, obviously. Fiesta then has the next two picks: Stanford is guaranteed a spot for finishing #4, TCU probably gets in at #16, West Virginia as the Big East winner and then basically between us and Virginia Tech, and we win that comparison. So Fiesta takes us and Stanford because: duh. Sugar then might take WVU over TCU, it's hard to say.
Calculus if Alabama gets the nod:
Sugar picks first to replace LSU and goes with us becuase we're rich. Then Fiesta picks someone to play OkSU who is there for sure because of Big 12 contracts. They take Stanford. Then Sugar picks between WVU and TCU as before.
If OKst does pass Bama (and I really hope they do) then I think what you wrote here is spot on. I hope it works out this way too. should be a good game.
Only one thing wrong with your analysis. If Alabama falls to #3 Stanford loses their guaranteed at large spot (#4 only gets an automatic at large if #3 is a conference champion).
I still think Stanford would get an at large bid in that scenario, but it wouldn't be guaranteed.
Oh right. Damn. I'm so close to understaning this mess. Still they get in for being 11-1 in a major conference.
I hate to say it, but I think Michigan finishes #15 in the BCS:
- Because of the close game, MSU stays ahead of UM.
- Despite getting crushed by Ok.State, Oklahoma will stay solid in the computer polls, drop in the human polls, but still stay ahead of Michigan in the total BCS rankings.
- Baylor will pass Michigan in the BCS. The computer polls love the Big Eight.
- Michigan will pass Houston and Georgia.
Add up all of the above, and Michigan moves up one spot, to #15.
I hope I am wrong.
Don't be such a Debbie Downer!
This presumes worst-case in every case. Unlikely. Lighten up.
Clemson dominating Va Tech will certainly move them into the top 15, maybe 14. MSU playing very well tonight could be a huge problem. The BCS doesn't seem to love UM so much, dropping them despite winning last week. MSU could stay ahead of Michigan because of their head-to-head even with three losses.
Baylor shouldn't jump us, but Oklahoma may stay ahead, because they are ...well...Oklahoma. If Oklahoma drops out, Baylor might replace them on the strength of RG III's popularity and Heisman swag.
It will be close and I think we........get 14th...or...15th.
MSU is a good team and they played well. Although Lewis did a boneheaded thing, that was a fairly lame running into the kicker call. I think MSU would fair batter than Wisco against Oregon, but both would get embarassed in the end. Wisconsin will not be able to keep up with Oregon, I don't think. Their defense will get gashed.
After watching Houston get thrashed, I wish they would have won and we could have played them. I think we could have pounded them. Keenum's ability to pass for so many yards and TDs had me rooting for Southwest Missouri. If we get in, who will we get. I think if we get in now, the opponent could be tougher than Houston. If we get Arkansas, that might not be a good thing.
Dropping behind us: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Georgia, Sparty, Houston
Possibly leaping us: Baylor (i be like DANG those guys can play this year)
Personally, I'd put the Pokes in the NCG, so Bama in Sugar, UM plays Stanford in Fiesta. (My undergrad v. my grad) (and there's no twinge of conflict in me, I bleed Maize n Blue). But if its Bama vs the Mad Hatter, then we play TCU in Sugar. Either way.. SUH-WEEEET!
I be like dang.
These teams rated above us lost:
#5 Virginia Tech (by 28)
#6 Houston (by 21)
#10 Oklahoma (by 34)
#13 Michigan State (by 3)
#14 Georgia (by 32)
These teams ranked within 6 spots of us won:
#17 Baylor (by 24 over #22 Texas)
#18 TCU (by 47 over UNLV)
#20 Clemson (by 28 over #5 Virginia Tech)
For us to make the BCS we must net 2 positions. Of the teams ahead of us that lost there's no doubt Oklahoma and Georgia will drop behind us, and I think there's a good chance Michigan State and Houston do too. I also don't think there's any way for TCU to jump us (UNLV is just too bad for the win to mean much).
So even if Baylor and Clemson both jump us we're in as long as either Michigan State or Houston drop below us. I like those odds.
I don't see a 3 loss Clemson team that lost to a terrible NC State team jumping us. Baylor, however, probably will since they beat a ranked UT team.
Neither do I, but I'm not willing to say it's a sure thing.
Completely disagree. Nothing beats experience.
You realize that 80% of the colts would start on LSU right? Sure, maybe Jefferson over Painter, maybe Honey Badger plays kick returner and they have a guy or two on the line, but NFL teams are all All Conference or close to All Conference players.
Yeah CP3guy is right. Id even put the number of Colts starters in a combined team at 99%
When people assert that X college team is better than X NFL team, they fail to realize that that NFL team is made of basically an all-star college team from the last decade. Any college team would get crushed by any NFL team
No. 6 Houston: Destroyed by no. 24 Southern Miss. One loss with the rest of their joke of a schedule wll cause them to plummet down the polls. UM will be ahead of them.
No. 10 Oklahoma: Destroyed by no. 3 Okie St. Will they drop far enough to fall behind UM? Unsure.
No. 13 Sparty: Lost in epic SPARTY NO fashion to No. 15 Wisconsin, should fall below UM with three losses, however, no. 15 Wisconsin will move up.
No. 14 Georgia: Destroyed by LSU (in the 2nd half anyways), will fall below UM.
Depending on how badly they shoot up Clemson for beating VT again, and what they do with Baylor, I'd pin UM at around 13, should certainly be in the top 14.
K, so we pass Houston, MSU, Georgia, and Wisconsin = 12
But, Baylor will probably pass us up. But could TCU and Clemosn pass us too? That would give us #15...
TCU won't pass us. They beat a bad UNLV team. Baylor will jump us, and I just dont see a 3 loss Clemson team jumping us either.
Why the hell does everyone think Baylor will pass us?! We have a better record, better name recognition with pollsters, and we were already ahead of them. We also don't have a blow-out loss on our record.
that the computers are 1/3 of the vote. Baylor will be miles ahead of Michigan in the computer polls (and, in fact, was miles ahead even before they thumped Texas). If they're close to Michigan in the human polls, that's probably enough for them to jump us.
little nervous to be honest. I think UM should pass Houston, Georgia and Oklahoma (provided the human voters drop them way down like they should). Not so sure they pass MSU and Virginia Tech though. Both Baylor (even though they don't deserve it) and Clemson could pass UM. That is what makes me nervous, because regardless of what ends up happening it will be close.
I still think it is joke that K-State is in front of Michigan, based on what I have seen watching a couple of their games. They basically have a slower bruising version of Denard at QB, worse skill position players than Michigan and a defense that is statistically worse than UM's by a good margin.
you couldn't play in the National Championship game if you didn't win your conference. Michigan had its shot to beat Ohio, then it was someone else's turn.
This year you don't have to win your conference because the BCS is infected with SEC bias and flat out bullcrap lobbying.
2006 has nothing to do with 2011
in debate, which is why legal doctrine is so often based on it. It does not rule arguments, but it certainly contributes to them.
Michigan was #2, lost by 3 to the #1 team in the road, and was passed over largely because 1) didn't win the conference, 2) "they had their shot".
This is very relevant to the current scenarios.
But they weren't an SEC team and didn't have Gary Danielson do a 3 1/2 hour informercial on their behalf just before the final vote.
Just so you guys know the stuff used for the computers doesn't use margin of victory so the amount sparty lost by doesn't really matter, I guess it could impact the human polls but they are really gonna get hurt in the computers, close lose or blowout just doesn't impact the computers.
The savaging we have been taking b/c of the "politically correct" computer rankings (which ignore how close the game was) will now work in our favor. Three-loss Sparty should drop, and there will be a decent number of pollsters who drop them beneath us for the same reason.
No way tcu passes us and I would be shocked if clemson did
Even if the BCS does not ditch the LSA/Alabama rematch (which it should; OK State made their case today), the delta between the teams dropping and teams moving up should get us to 14.
Why is everyone thinking we won't jump MSU? They are a three loss team who got destroyed by two teams we beat. Losing late is always the worst thing to happen to one's BCS dreams.
has been to not punish teams very much for losing in conference championship games.
MSU defeated UM by two scores, and MSU barely lost to Wisconsin. MSU is well ahead of UM in both human polls. It's unlikely MSU will drop behind UM in the human polls.
Which team is more worthy, a team that is 10-2 or a team that is 10-3 but beat the 10-2 team by two touchdowns? To many voters, that is a tough call.
3. Oklahoma State
5. Boise State
8. Kansas State
9. South Carolina
15. Michigan State
Think VT will fall out of the top 15? I mean I guess I can see it with how far Clemsonfell when they were no. 8. And I think Boise gets jumped by a couple teams that were in the top 10 behind them that won their CGs. Other than that, I think this is solid. Idk about as high as 12 though.
if Sparty was eligible, but passed over in favor of us. That said, this is gonna come out pretty close, so probably best if they drop out altogether.
That's exactly the kind of vitriol I've come to appreciate on this board. You sir, have arrived.
At the beginning of the season if someone said Gator or Outback bowl I'd be elated. Sooooo Capital One or BCS is gravy...
...With that said, please please please top 14! Daddy wants to go to Nola!
I'm not a big fan of Lou Holtz, but he just said what many on this board are thinking. If there wasn't a rematch of 1OSU vs 2UM in 2006, then there shouldn't be a rematch of Bama/LSU. It was one of the first times I've seen Mark May have nothing to say, although I could see his SEC homer wheels turning.