Where Does Michigan Finish?

Submitted by raleighwood on
If everything is "chalk"....can Michigan finish the season at #2? All of this is based on Michigan winning. Penn State (#5) and Washington (#4) would both clearly fall behind Michigan if they lose. Assuming OSU beats Clemson by more than an FG (not likely....but possible), then Clemson falls behind Michigan, too. That leaves OSU vs Bama. I'd contend that if OSU loses by more than seven (likely), then they'd fall past Michigan leaving the Wolverines at #2. This factors in the fact that Michigan lost to OSU in double OT on the road (with other dubious elements). This season seems similar to 1985 to me (generational defense, losing close game at Iowa, Harbaugh....) and Michigan finished #2 then. I'm looking for a repeat. Thoughts?

Clarence Boddicker

December 28th, 2016 at 10:36 AM ^

Michigan will always be first in my heart. I'm a proud alum! My feeling is based on the concept of a playoff system. Logically, if these are the the top 4 teams, they remain if they lose to another top 4. Conceptually. A higher ranking is certainly possible if Washington is blown out and PSU does the expected and gets crushed. 3 is possible.

Clarence Boddicker

December 28th, 2016 at 11:49 AM ^

I get that Washington is a big underdog. I wouldn't call a blow-out a certainty. Let me fill YOU in. Point spreads are not predictions. They are set to attract equal betting on both sides of the line. Lines move when betting on either side shows an imbalance. Of course, unexpected things happen in college football. That's why we actually watch the games! If outcomes were a certainty no one would bother.

JonnyHintz

December 28th, 2016 at 1:49 PM ^

You mean kinda like Michigan being favored by 24 points against Iowa not being a good sign for Iowa?

Look, there's a reason the game is played on the field. The betting line is essentially meaningless. Sometimes they're way over, sometimes they're under, sometimes they're close. The betting line being two TDs doesn't mean the game is going to be a blowout.

SpikeFan2016

December 28th, 2016 at 12:22 PM ^

What would have to happen for us to stay at #6 with a win?

 

If Penn State does beat USC, they will stay ahead of us even if they win by 3 points and we win by 30 (People will stupidly respect USC way more than FSU, even though both teams are 9-3 and USC plays in a weaker division/conference). 

So for us to stay at #6 with a win, we'd either have to suffer a Washington upset or simply two very competitive playoff games. I think if Washington loses a close game to Alabama, they will stay ahead of Michigan, although PSU could pass them after beating the PAC 12 team they lost to. 

 

 

The other interesting question, is it possible for Ohio State to finish as the third ranked Big Ten team?

If both PSU and Michigan win, Michigan convincingly, and Washington either plays a really close game with Bama or pulls off a stunner upset, could you have #4 PSU, #5 Michigan, #6 Ohio State?

 

That would be my hope, but my fear would be that OSU would fall behind Penn State due to head to head but remain above us for the same reason. 

SpikeFan2016

December 28th, 2016 at 3:51 PM ^

They would have to drop at least 3 spots. 

 

A 1 spot drop leaves them at #3 and both NCG participants will be above them. 

 

A 2 spot drop would require Michigan to rise to #3, there is almost no chance that happens. Only way would be if Clemson, Washington and Penn State all get BLOWN OUT and we also win by a significant margin. 

Only way I see us above Clemson is if Washington either beats Alabama or loses a one score game (AKA Clemson clearly is shown to be the worst team to make the playoff), Clemson loses by greater than 2 TDs, Michigan wins by greater than 2 TDs and Penn State loses.

Given we'd be beating their division rival while they would be losing to ours, we'd have a shift in SOS on our side. No way a team is dropping from #2 to #6 for losing to the #3 team in the playoffs, so that's why we'd need a PSU loss. 

OC Alum91

December 28th, 2016 at 1:16 AM ^

"hard to see scenario in which we jump OSU/Clemson loser" .....how 'bout OSU routs Clemson, we rout FSU. We lost a close one to OSU, Clemson won a close one over FSU (37-34).....There, I don't think having the conference championship means that much, especially if OSU goes on to win NC. I could see us being voted above Clemson.

M-Dog

December 28th, 2016 at 9:07 AM ^

If we win at all, 4th is money in the bank.

Washington will lose big to Alabama.  This will confirm that they weren't really a top 4 team.  We will jump them.

PSU will lose to USC.  They will have one more loss than us, so we will jump them easily.

We can make it to 3rd if OSU beats Clemson convincingly (more than a TD).  It does not even have to be a blow out.  The fact that we took OSU to 2 OT at Columbus and lost on a disputed call will jump us over Clemson that will have lost by more than a TD on a neutral field. 

mGrowOld

December 27th, 2016 at 10:29 PM ^

As high as three if both Washington and Clemson get thumped and we win big. Most likely 4-5 if we win a "normal" game and both of them lose close ones. Won't vault OSU or Alabama no matter what.

lhglrkwg

December 28th, 2016 at 8:53 AM ^

Yeah, we lost on the road at night to Iowa and in 2OT in Columbus. Penn State's schedule was about as soft as they could've hoped for in the Big Ten East (getting OSU, Iowa, MSU at home) and their only significant road game saw them get blasted courtesy of us.

Top 5 teams don't lose by 40 to anyone. Penn State is a sham and I think USC is going to expose them in a big way

M-Dog

December 28th, 2016 at 9:13 AM ^

It is a joke that M is #6. Totally unjustifiable.

It's a self-solving problem.  Both Washington and PSU are up against oppponents they do not match up well with.  They are going to get beat soundly.

If we take care of business, we will jump both of them.

Not that it matters now, but we will be able to say: "See, we told you we were a Top 4 team."

Bitter now, but it could help down the road.

 

SD Larry

December 28th, 2016 at 10:12 AM ^

is the best case scenario for Michigan, assuming you want OSU to beat Clemson.  If we beat FSU, I think we pass Clemson on an OSU win, PSU, and Washington if Bama wins by more than two touchdowns.  I happen to think USC beats PSU decisively, and if USC stomps PSU, I see PSU dropping more than to 7, and USC could finish  4 if Washington puts up a good game against Bama.  USC's road win at Washington likely will remain impressive unless Bama blows Washington out.  

SpikeFan2016

December 28th, 2016 at 12:13 PM ^

USC is not going to jump two playoff teams from their current spot at #9 just because they beat Penn State lol. 

 

The easy team for Michigan to pass is Penn State; if they lose and we win we will surely be above them. 

 

The only way we jump either Washington or Clemson is if they get blown out AND we win convincingly; it would have to be by 3 touchdowns or more for Washington, maybe a little less of a margin for Clemson. 

Mr. Yost

December 27th, 2016 at 11:08 PM ^

And in this case....he's right. It doesn't mean anything.

Before it was annoying because the rankings matters and we needed to remain high to get into the playoff. Now? Just win the damn game and have a good taste in our mouths going into the offseason like we did last year.

This past offseason was so much better after that bowl win.

Just win. You'll finish top 5 for the record books...that's all that matters when it comes to the rankings. We'll be able to add another top 5 finish to WD's SuperGuide.

Other than that, the rankings don't mean a damn thing anymore.