When We Beat Alabama

Submitted by Swayze Howell Sheen on

There has been a lot of talk about the Alabama game and a likely loss. Frankly, I am sick of it. 

So let's imagine the win instead. Suddenly, UM vaults to #1 in the country, and the path before the team becomes clear: win out (or even lose once) and play for the national championship.

Though it will undoubtedly be challenging, this team has a ton going for it:

  • Lots of coaches have their "best" year in their second year, winning a national championship
  • There are a ton of returning players, including amazing gamebreakers like Denard
  • The Big Ten is down this year (Wisconsin/MSU with a new QB, OSU adjusting to a new coaching regime, and Penn State ... er)

Discuss. Or rather, let it sink in: WE ARE GOING TO BE #1 BABY!

 

Lionsfan

July 27th, 2012 at 1:39 AM ^

I seriously doubt we're going to get blown out. Everyone is talking about the massive Alabama O-Line, but have some pretty good defensive players too. And it's not like we have to face Mark Ingram or Trent Richardson running behind that line either, and they don't have a single WR I'm afraid of. Not after going against the likes of Floyd, Posey, and that Illini guy whose name escapes me.

On our offensive side, I'll just say that if Stephen Garcia can QB a victory over Alabama, I think we can too. Now that was 2 years ago, but the same situations with regards to replacing Defensive starters with new guys.

Anyone who thinks we're going to steamroll Alabama is an idiot. It's definitely going to be an uphill battle, one I think we can pull out if things go our way (T/O's, a few big plays, special teams), but it's going to be tough, probably our toughest game of the year. I still don't think we'll get blown out though

Sten Carlson

July 27th, 2012 at 12:09 PM ^

There is nothing that gets my hackles up than a negative definitive statement from a seemingly die hard fan -- it's pathetic.  If you love this team, why make a statement like that?  You love your kids, do you tell them they're going to fail before they try?  As someone else said, show some faith fergodsake!  I understand that you need a defense mechanism to keep from being too hurt should Michigan get defeated, but it just makes our fanbase look weak, IMO.  I am not saying that you have to run around like a Buckeye screaming that we're going to demolish the Tide, but show some pride fergodsake.

All that being said, I understand why Bama is favored and all, but college football is very hard to predict from one season to the next, especially after a big season with lots of turnover.  Is the chemistry that the team had last year going to be the same?  Are they going to be as hungry leading into the game?  Will the new leaders of the team command the same kind of respect?  Will the new personnel be able to perform immediately?  Lots and lots of questions.  I am not taking anything away from Alabama, but there is a reason that they're not being picked to repeat, and it's not just because everyone is sucking on USC's knob -- there are a lot of unknowns.  Michigan cannot ask for a better time to play Alabama.

IMO, Borges is going to have to do everything in his power to keep Bama's defense guessing.  This isn't some cupcake in which you just run your base offense and don't reveal too much.  I think he needs to go deep into the play book early in camp and make sure that Bama hasn't seen the majority of the plays he calls.  DG at WR, two QB sets, anything to keep them guessing and off balance.

It should be fun to watch, and I think we have a puncher's chance.

Go Blue!

BlueLotCrew

July 26th, 2012 at 11:46 PM ^

when he says most. The only ones I can think of are Erickson, Stoops, Meyer, Tressel and Chizik. Not even Crooked Pete out west did it in year 2. Mack Bown, Carr, Bowden, even Saban didn't win it in year 2. I guess 5 since WW2 is most.

grumbler

July 27th, 2012 at 10:10 AM ^

not "most."  Quibble about 5 being "lots" if you wish.

Did you actually go back to WW2 to make the claim that there were only 5 since WW2?

 

Frank Leahy won one in his second year (47) though he had won the previous year as well.

Duffy Dougherty did it in 1955, his second year at State.

Bowden Wyatt did in in 1956, his second year at Tennessee.

Barry Switzer did it in 1974, his second season at Arizona.

Bobby Bowden did it in his second year at Florida in 1993

 

So, that's ten since WW2, based on your numbers and a cursory Wiki search.  That's "lots," I would think.

 

ShruteBeetFarms

July 26th, 2012 at 11:55 PM ^

We will have a bulls eye on our back the rest of the season.  I watch tons of college games and it's very tough to get up for every game. That's why trap games are terrifying. 

Committed

July 27th, 2012 at 12:07 AM ^

Uhhhh...remember Johnny Sears jr? The corner that I left michigan and went to EMU after some law trouble.



He was the number 10 play on the ESPN top 10. He was playing DB for the Winnipeg Bluebombers when he laid the wood down on some receiver from Edmonton. Anyone else catch that?



Also, if you ever get a second, check out his fro from his player profile when he played for the Cinci Bengals. It's about 6 inches away from being Marge Simpson-esque.



Ok, I'm done now...on with the thread.

mgolegend

July 27th, 2012 at 12:22 AM ^

I really feel like we have a good shot to give alabama a run for there money. The tide have yet to meet Shoelaces.

If we win it probably will be a low scoring game won in the 4th quarter. If we lose you have to take it on the chin and move on!  I'm just hoping for a close game wither way. Go Blue!

Roachgoblue

July 27th, 2012 at 12:54 AM ^

Did you watch the games? I pray the team plays well and we will kick their asses. Denard just needs to quit making dumb decisions on the road. We all forget he is young and I feel he will play smart. He is much wiser.

NOLA Wolverine

July 27th, 2012 at 12:36 AM ^

No, no, didn't you hear? Nick Saban has BROKEN the cyclical nature of college football. And it's not like every single other time that we've been in a trough or peak of a cycle and thought "this is it," he's done it this time! Alabama will be great forever because they've been great before. 

Alabama won't be great forever, and now's a pretty great time for them to get socked in the face a couple of times. 

Swazi

July 27th, 2012 at 12:59 AM ^

Depending on where we are to start the season, I doubt we'll vault to no. 1.  However, if we can beat Bama, we can certainly beat anyone this year in the B1G.

MichiganPoloShirt

July 27th, 2012 at 1:07 AM ^

When we beat Bama we will be the no.1 team in the country. We should enter the game with a top ten ranking right? I think we have a great chance to win, those guys lost a lot of talent.

triangle_M

July 27th, 2012 at 1:51 AM ^

 

Rational folks believe that Alabama will win:  size, speed, talent, coaching, oversigning, greyshirting, JUCO transfers, low academic standards, culture of illegal benefits, medical hardships, ess eee see--did I miss anything?   

A win against Alabama would seem like the start of a dream season.   Its what kids watching Denard and Michigan must hope for, when it seems that I want something different--the return of Michigan Football--a B1G Championship.  It would be great if Michigan got them both.  Thanks for the optimism Coach.

colin

July 27th, 2012 at 3:10 AM ^

In case you guys were wondering what the historical odds were given a particular spread in college football was, I have a fun link:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/8/29/1003957/chance-of-a-football…

Vegas Insider has the game at Alabama -11.  That translates to a 78% chance of winning per the trend line charting data from '05-'08.  If you just look at the games with a spread from 10.5-11.5, the favored team won 84% of the time.

It's kind of a downer.  On the other hand, if you think Michigan has much if any shot to win, the suggestion is it wouldn't be a terrible value bet if you're good at pegging the quality of college football teams.  

I tend to assume Vegas knows more than me, so I've just sorta written this game off.  I want to see us fight and I want to see what our coaches can do when they're outgunned like this.  On offense in particular, I want to see how Denard looks and what Borges comes up with.  This is a running oriented offense against Saban, who apparently has the dudes to two gap our stuff and take away our numbers advantage.

That's a big problem and that's why I don't get people who think we're gonna pass our way out of this.  If Borges can't consistently come up with schemes to grease the running game, Denard's going to be facing more pass defenders in worse situations with worse receivers than he is used to.  I don't see that going well.

So we'll see.  Should be instructive in the very least.

MrVociferous

July 27th, 2012 at 8:50 AM ^

I agree.  Our ability to pass is pretty suspect, and Alabama consistently has some of the best coached DBs in college.  The ol' throw it up deep and hope we come down with it play isn't going to work like it did last year.  And when you factor in how shaky passing offenses are at the start of seasons, its not something I'd feel strongly relying on.

On the other side, I think the Bama OL/RB vs our DL is going to be a matchup nightmare.  They should be able to just grind the game out on the ground.  I feel worse about that matchup than I do the passing game.

Don

July 27th, 2012 at 7:28 AM ^

Me too. Talking about a possible loss to the defending national champs from the strongest conference in the country headed by a guy who's won two NCs at two different schools is a sure sign of insufficient manhood, moral decay, and sand in the vagina. We need more manly UM fans here at MGoBlog.

IronDMK

July 27th, 2012 at 8:55 AM ^

I love it when fans have blind optimism about their team going into a big game.  Many of the people here are afraid to show their optimism because they might be "wrong."  And if there's one thing I see on this board, it's that everyone wants to be "right" and will argue to the end of the earth to "prove" why they are "right."  Just man up and tell everyone you know (especially Alabama fans) that Michigan will beat the shit out of Alabama on September 1.  Place wagers on it.  Michigan is your team, right?  Show some pride.  Show how die hard of a fan you are.  Show how much you love your team.  Show us that blind optimism.  Fuck the thought of losing.  Michigan is going to WIN.

suz48382

July 27th, 2012 at 7:48 AM ^

Every day I listen to the Tide faithful calling in to Paul Finebaum talking (not always coherently) about how they are going to kick our ass come September. Paul tells them, not so fast! Michigan's a team to watch out for, and Bama's not seen a QB like Denard. (I appreciate the support from Mr. Finebaum, who’s a known SEC slappy.)

They are fired up about this game, and I ask myself why that would be? Could it be that they aren’t quite as confident as they appear? Odds are strongly in their favor, but I think they know that Michigan is just the kind of team that could pull this one off!!!

There will be a lot of folks around the country hoping to see Nick and his Tide fall in Dallas. If that happens, watch out, it will be a magical year for the Maize & Blue!!!!  

willywill9

July 27th, 2012 at 9:31 AM ^

If we were playing Miami, Tennesee, Florida, UCLA's etc. with rich history, but aren't quite up to their "historical standards"... wouldn't you be pumped too?  I admit, we're in better shape at this point than the majority of these teams, but we're still in somewhat of a transition of offensive identity (IMO).  This program will be even better than it is right now in the coming years.  My guess is they think we're exactly like the two PSU teams they've beaten over the last couple of years.  

In other words, to them, this is a 'guaranteed' win over a big name.  That's why they're pumped.

Tater

July 27th, 2012 at 10:28 AM ^

I really like the OP's enthusiasm here, but Alabama is going to be an uphill battle.  With Bama's advantage in personnel due to over-recruiting, my guess is that if they played ten games, Michigan would win two.  

The "silver lining" here is that they are only playing once, and you never know how it's going to turn out.

BlueHills

July 27th, 2012 at 10:52 AM ^

It's fun to speculate what might happen. Here's what's possible:

'Bama comes in a little overconfident. It's their first game of the season, and they have quite a few new starters who make some uncharacteristic mistakes, and a few defensive plays break down.

Borges, who coached at Auburn, knows SEC defenses. He has a good game plan. Denard starts fast, and surprises his opponents with some good throws to loosen up their defense and take advantage of those mistakes. 

Michigan has an offensive game like they played against Nebraska and Ohio State. We miss Fitz, but Rawls shows why he was highly touted coming in. 

Big Will Campbell plays like he's on fire. The Michigan defense, coached by Mattison (who also coached in the SEC) makes some nice stops. 

Michigan pulls ahead, but it's a see-saw battle. By the end of the game, Michigan's tired, and it shows. But 'Bama is in shock, they hadn't expected a real game.

At the end, it's all about brown haired girls, and Michigan wins.

Or not. But I think we'll see a good game.

 

DualThreat

July 27th, 2012 at 1:09 PM ^

I live in Alabama and have been debating whether I should watch the game at home or go out to a sports bar here decked out in my Maize and Blue.  What would you do?

MosherJordan

July 27th, 2012 at 1:19 PM ^

I like the attitude. It's sad that even when we're trying to be optimistic we're still pessimists. So, if we win, it might be because we got lucky, but what if it's because BWC finds his potential and eats some vaunted Bama OL double teams? What if Denard has RG3 like passing game, and smokes the Bama secondary? What Rawls lives up to his Jacsonian billing and becomes Mark Ingram, only faster? what if Countes has a second year that echos of Woodson? What I'd Darboh has a Watkins like year? Or Gardner does see significant time at WR? What if Nortfleet channels a little Devin Hester? Nobody saw the 1997 team winning it all after an 8-4 season. When we beat Alabama, it will not be a fluke, and commentators will say that the better team did win. We will go to #3, and then when we crush ND we will go to #1. We will cruise through a weak B1G, hammering Nebraska at home, takin a second straight against Ohio, beat Sparty, beat Wiscy in the B1G championship, and play USC for the title.

chewieblue

July 27th, 2012 at 1:47 PM ^

  1. no depth on either line
  2. a QB we love, but all know will throw 1-3 picks at a bad time against good defenses
  3. a slew of FCS RB's
  4. no real receiving threat to speak of

We're going to lose.

We will be a bitc* in two to three years.  Wait patiently, then enjoy.

Soulfire21

July 27th, 2012 at 2:18 PM ^

Emotionally, I agree.

Rationally, I don't.

I feel like it has been said before, but yes, consider us hovering around a #10 ranking and the Tide around #4.  A win over them would move us up some, but not to #1.

hfhmilkman

July 27th, 2012 at 3:31 PM ^

If we beat Bama I will know that God walks among mortals and his name is Mattison.  The only way UM has a shot at Bama is if they are complacent and a fired up Michigan wins the intangibles and Mattison figures out a way to out scheme the Bama offense.

Now some on the board are being bagged for not drinking the koolaid.  When it comes to game time I have no problems rooting for my team and expecting a win.   Every game begins tied.  However, if I was told to put money down not on spread but the win, there is nothing to discuss.

To expect a team to win that has a new player at every position of the defensive line is ridiculous.  So the underperforming NT who has shown nothing has to become a dominant player in his first start.   The DE moved to 3tech, the other DE moved to 5tech, and the LB moved to End all have to do the same thing likewise.   And they have to do it against the best Oline in all of college football.   It might not matter what great plan Borges comes up with because the time of possesion could 42 minutes to 18 in favor of Bama.  And don't forget if Borges is so great how come the best gig he could get was a coordinator at a Mountain West team.   You would think an offensive wizard could go anywhere he wanted to.  Especially after MSU and Iowa debacles I am not confused Borges knows half of what we give him credit for.

The fun of college football is that any team can win if the stars line up.   I remember Arnie Spannard with his you don't need the spread take the win picks in the 90ties.  I remember shaking when he picked NW over UM in 96.   But I also remember his big picks of Virginia over FSU and that magical game when Florida came into LSU.  Spurrier never knew what hit him.  For that I will watch the games.   There is nothing more entertaining than an underdog winning a college football game.

I just finished reading the account of the First Naval Battle of Guadalcanal.  A bunch of undermanned American cruisers got bruised by a Japanesse Task force that was backed by a battleship.   The underdogs won and the Hiei was sunk.  Henderson field lived another day.  My heart will be with Michigan.  But if I were forced to bet my wallet would be with Alabama.