What will it take for Michigan to make the tourney?

Submitted by Bambi on

After the win today we sit at 13-7 overall and 3-4 in conference with 11 more games to go. According to most people, pre the game today, we are right on the bubble with most people having us on the wrong side of it.

Our results pretty much confirm this. Our worst losses are @ Iowa in OT or @ Illinois, but neither of those are awful. On the flip side our best wins are the early season tournament wins against SMU and Marquette, both neutral court wins against probable tourney teams. We also don't have a road win yet which is concerning.

Looking at the rest of our schedule, I think the remaining games break down into the following three groups.

Must Wins: vs OSU, @ Rutgers, @ Nebraska

These are arguably the three worst teams in the conference so there's no room for error here and we must go 3-0.

Toss Up Games: vs Indiana, @ MSU, vs MSU, @ Indiana, @ Minnesota, @ Northwestern

Obviously the majority of the games left. Indiana and MSU are both more talented teams than us but haven't been playing at levels that make me think we can't beat them, especially with their injuries. Minnesota and Northwestern are both teams that we generally should beat, but have been playing well this year and being on the road become definite toss up games. Going 3-3 would hopefully be enough but for good measure you'd probably like a win over both MSU and Indiana in there.

Hope for an upset: vs Wisconsin, vs Purdue

These are two games which I think we'll be definite underdogs as one of these two will probably win the B1G. That being said, considering both of these are at home and our performace against Wisconsin @ Wisconsin,we might be able to steal one of these two. The hope here is to go 1-1.

So when's all said in done, if it plays out like this, we finish the season going 7-4 and end the season at 20-11 and 10-8 in B1G play. That mark pre B1G tourney, cmbined with the fact that we'd have wins over Wisky/Purdue, MSU, Indiana, SMU, and Marquette with no bad losses, I think that's enough to get us in.

What say you?

MGoBoard

Wolverine Devotee

January 21st, 2017 at 7:35 PM ^

I'd say the road loss is annual. We haven't won at Skjodt Hall since Nam.

I don't even want to say what our record there is. It's really really ugly.



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SpikeFan2016

January 22nd, 2017 at 12:34 PM ^

Ugh. Well, their percentage is lower if you include the 5 wins and zero losses Michigan Football had over IU in Ann Arbor prior to the Big House opening. 

 

And, on the other end, their football team has only beaten us in Bloomington twice. We are better than that against their basketball team in Ann Arbor haha. 

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aiglick

January 21st, 2017 at 7:32 PM ^

If we finish 10-8 in Big Ten which is slightly down this year that could be enough provided no first round loss in BTT. If we go 9-9 we may have to make the semis in BTT. It's an evolving situation though with so much basketball to be played. Got to protect home court in the next couple of games.

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Michifornia

January 21st, 2017 at 10:12 PM ^

ALL AROUND.  Can't keep having DJ play well one game, Wagner play well another.  Irvin has to stop making bad plays every third trip down.  Walton has to play with confidence and do what we've seen him do in the past.  I think we have just enough talent to make it happen.  Boils down to execution down the stretch.  

Honestly, I think it would be a big and pleasant surprise if they snuck into the tournament.  Will be pulling hard but have tempered expectations.

GO BLUE!!

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Wolverine Devotee

January 21st, 2017 at 7:34 PM ^

Le sigh.

The fact that we're right back in this position we were last year where we're trying to find wins to just *get* into the NCAA Tournament is so disappointing.

I think it's obvious Beilein isn't going anywhere this year. Not what I saw today. This team can get into the tournament.

But we are Michigan. Simply just getting in being a big deal should not be a thing.

Next year will be better (I know, I know). I'm really curious to see what Poole and Matthews will bring.

If next year is not better than mediocre, I think it's time to evaluate things.



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alum96

January 21st, 2017 at 7:56 PM ^

Why is next year going to be better again?

Irvin and Walton are known commodities - not high end commodities but known.  X was going to be "the next Burke" per the msg board a year ago.  Now these 2 guys are going to be the next Burke or GR3 as a freshman?  What guy has come in and been a legit Big 10 impact player as a treu freshman, since those 2?  There are no guarantees on those guys.

With the development of DJ you probably have 2 legit Big 10 starters next year in Mo and DJ.  That is down from 4 this year with the 2 seniors departing.  You are looking at X and MAAR as your backcourt.  Oh yeah, and the freshman "stars" we are bringing in. If 1 of the 2 true freshman hit I'd consider it great, and that would get us up to 3 legit players.  And a bunch of meh players around them.

Next year has a great chance to be the same as the ceiling.

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atom evolootion

January 21st, 2017 at 9:00 PM ^

I like Irvin the most when he's aggressive and looking for his shot. He's a scorer. When the ball goes in and he's smiling, he seems to be more willing to do the other things that help the team, but when the ball's not falling through the net, he often disappears from the game completely, like the game at South Carolina earlier this year. The one thing I hate about Irvin's shot is that it's slow to leave his hands. He's had jumpers blocked more than anybody who gets his kind of elevation on a shot ever should.

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ghostofhoke

January 22nd, 2017 at 3:25 PM ^

See this is the stupid shit that people who have some inflated sense of self put out there. Why would making the tourney not be a goal? I could see a Duke, UNC, Kentucky even MSU thinking that just making the tourney is below the standard of their programs but exactly where do you think Michigan basketball has been for the last 15-20 years?



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Michrider41

January 21st, 2017 at 8:05 PM ^

Looking at the schedule it is difficult to see many more wins. The B1G is not great this year, but this team is in the bottom half.

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