Weekly Updated ESPN Bracketology

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February 2nd, 2013 at 11:15 AM
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Mr. Yost
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Joined: 07/25/2011
MGoPoints: 5499
Weekly Updated ESPN Bracketology

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

EAST
1. Florida
2. Indiana
3. L'ville
4. Butler

WEST
1. Duke
2. Arizona
3. MSU
4. New Mexico

MIDWEST
1. Michigan
2. Syracuse
3. Miami (FL)
4. Oregon

SOUTH
1. Kansas
2. Gonzaga
3. Ohio
4. Cincinnati

That EAST bracket would be murder, 3 potential #1 seeds in the same region and a Butler team that is always dangerous (and getting its best players back after losing games without them).

The MIDWEST doesn't look that bad, but it has every team that is dangerous/sneaky. Miami (FL) is big a physical and destroyed Duke. Oregon is the best team no one knows about (not Ole Miss). I don't mind the Syracuse matchup...in most years I'd cringe. I think they're tough to prepare for. But if they want to bring that zone vs. this team...good luck.

“True loyalty is that quality of service that grows under adversity and expands in defeat. Any street urchin can shout applause in victory, but it takes character to stand fast in defeat. One is noise — the other, loyalty.”

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February 2nd, 2013 at 11:25 AM | Agreed Kentucky exposed them (Score:1)
aiglick
Joined: 11/27/2010
MGoPoints: 1439

Agreed Kentucky exposed them and Oregon has beaten some pretty good teams.

Here's hoping for a bright future. This team does try hard and I will continue to support them.

February 2nd, 2013 at 11:27 AM | My predictions... (Score:1)
Mr. Yost
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Joined: 07/25/2011
MGoPoints: 5499

EAST
1. Michigan
2. Syracuse
3. Oregon
4. NC State

WEST
1. Florida
2. Arizona
3. Gonzaga
4. New Mexico

MIDWEST
1. Indiana
2. Louisville
3. MSU
4. Butler

SOUTH
1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Ohio
4. Miami (FL)

“True loyalty is that quality of service that grows under adversity and expands in defeat. Any street urchin can shout applause in victory, but it takes character to stand fast in defeat. One is noise — the other, loyalty.”

February 2nd, 2013 at 11:47 AM | This prediction has IU (Score:1)
jfoust81
Joined: 12/18/2010
MGoPoints: 155

This prediction has IU winning the B1G regular season correct?

February 2nd, 2013 at 1:53 PM | Tie with us...(regular season) (Score:1)
Mr. Yost
Mr. Yost's picture
Joined: 07/25/2011
MGoPoints: 5499

But has them winning the B1G Tournament in Chicago and getting the #1 overall seed.

Knocks us to the third overall #1 seed behind Big XII regular season and tournament champs in Kansas.

Doesn't matter, even if we were the 2nd overall, I think we would've went East and them South.

“True loyalty is that quality of service that grows under adversity and expands in defeat. Any street urchin can shout applause in victory, but it takes character to stand fast in defeat. One is noise — the other, loyalty.”

February 2nd, 2013 at 1:44 PM | I'd love it if Michigan were in the East (Score:1)
bluesalt
Joined: 11/02/2011
MGoPoints: 164

For purely selfish reasons, as I live in DC. I think that crowd could be pretty Blue.

Of course, this means Indiana finishes above us, and that's bad.

February 2nd, 2013 at 1:54 PM | I'd love it too... (Score:1)
Mr. Yost
Mr. Yost's picture
Joined: 07/25/2011
MGoPoints: 5499

I'm also in the DC area...used to work at Maryland. Now I'm in VA.

Nonetheless we could tie for the regular season title and lose in the B1G Championship game to IU and both be on the 1 line.

“True loyalty is that quality of service that grows under adversity and expands in defeat. Any street urchin can shout applause in victory, but it takes character to stand fast in defeat. One is noise — the other, loyalty.”

February 2nd, 2013 at 2:09 PM | If this were to happen... (Score:1)
Mr. Yost
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Joined: 07/25/2011
MGoPoints: 5499

I'd go

EAST
1. Michigan
2. Syracuse

WEST
1. Florida
3. Gonzaga  (I'd actually look for a #5 or lower seed)

MIDWEST
1. Indiana
3. MSU

SOUTH
1. Kansas
3. Ohio (I'd actually look for a #5 or lower seed)

I'd take "chalk" to the Final Four.

Championship: Michigan vs. Kansas

Michigan's 4 games vs. IU (2-2) help them prepare for Jeff Withey...Michigan wins 70-65

“True loyalty is that quality of service that grows under adversity and expands in defeat. Any street urchin can shout applause in victory, but it takes character to stand fast in defeat. One is noise — the other, loyalty.”

February 2nd, 2013 at 11:39 AM | Interesting, Yost. If Duke (Score:2)
BostonWolverine
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Joined: 11/13/2008
MGoPoints: 2421

Interesting, Yost. If Duke loses enough without Ryan Kelly, they could slip to a 2. I don't know when he's slated to return, though. Is it possible that they could be a scary 2-seed with Kelly back for the tournament?

February 2nd, 2013 at 1:56 PM | I think they're a 2-seed. (Score:1)
Mr. Yost
Mr. Yost's picture
Joined: 07/25/2011
MGoPoints: 5499

I still think they have at least 2 more regular season losses. And the ACC is weak this year, so 2 more losses for Duke and 2 more losses for Michigan or IU isn't the same.

“True loyalty is that quality of service that grows under adversity and expands in defeat. Any street urchin can shout applause in victory, but it takes character to stand fast in defeat. One is noise — the other, loyalty.”

February 2nd, 2013 at 11:56 AM | Sliders (Score:2 Normal)
chatster
Joined: 09/14/2010
MGoPoints: 518

Two teams that might slide in the brackets are Duke and Syracuse.

As said by BostonWolverine, Duke could be without senior forward Ryan Kelly for the rest of the regular season. He has been out with a foot injury since January 9. Duke is 3-2 since then with a tough game today at Florida State. They’re trying to rely on Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry to score almost three quarters of their points. And Curry has been playing with an injured shin all season.

Syracuse remains without top sixth man and three-point specialist James Southerland who plans to appeal for reinstatement from a suspension that may be for academic transgressions, so his return is doubtful. They’ll also be without injured 6-9 freshman forward DaJuan Coleman for at least four weeks, so they’re down to seven scholarship players and little front court depth. They’re at Pitt today (always a tough place for Syracuse and Pitt coach Jamie Dixon has no problem beating Jim Boeheim and the Orange) and then face Notre Dame at home on Monday. Losses in those games would put Syracuse on a three-game losing streak, and then they face an improving St. John’s team next weekend. 

February 2nd, 2013 at 1:57 PM | One team no one wants to see... (Score:1)
Mr. Yost
Mr. Yost's picture
Joined: 07/25/2011
MGoPoints: 5499

Kentucky.

Can you imagine having to play UK in the 2nd round as a #1 seed?

They seemed headed for that #8/#9 game and they're only going to get better this year.

I don't think they're championship worthy, but I definitely don't want to play them in the 2nd round!

“True loyalty is that quality of service that grows under adversity and expands in defeat. Any street urchin can shout applause in victory, but it takes character to stand fast in defeat. One is noise — the other, loyalty.”

February 2nd, 2013 at 3:36 PM | Some Projected Odds... (Score:3 Normal)
LSAClassOf2000
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Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 8708

Here's a table of projected tournament odds for each of these teams via TeamRankings, altough their data is also used by ESPN Insider in concert with some other sources, I believe. In any case, I still wonder about why Florida gets the edge in this algorithm - so far, the site hasn't answered me about how their algorithm weights certain things. Looking at their schedule for a moment, there is probably not a game left which they wouldn't have about an 4 in 5 chance of winning in isolation - I don't know if there is another team that has a realizable shot that could say this. Further, in this projected bracket, they would have a relatively easy go in the first two rounds. 

  Tourney Odds Seed Odds Advance To…
Any Auto At Large #1 Top 4 Sweet 16 Final 4 Champ%
1. Florida 100% 69% 31% 76% 100% 84% 52% 26.40%
2. Indiana 100% 46% 54% 51% 98% 80% 43% 18.10%
1. Kansas 100% 48% 52% 76% 100% 69% 27% 6.60%
3. L'ville 100% 32% 68% 11% 89% 66% 23% 6.30%
1. Duke 100% 46% 54% 33% 97% 67% 24% 6.20%
2. Syracuse 100% 27% 73% 39% 97% 64% 21% 4.70%
1. Michigan 100% 18% 82% 25% 92% 62% 20% 4.50%
2. Gonzaga 100% 67% 33% 12% 96% 62% 19% 4.10%
2. Arizona 100% 45% 55% 35% 97% 57% 15% 2.70%
3. Ohio 99% 12% 87% 1% 33% 43% 11% 2.20%
3. Miami (FL) 100% 21% 79% 30% 96% 50% 10% 1.40%
3. MSU 99% 5% 94% 1% 31% 32% 5% 0.70%
4. Cincinnati 97% 8% 89% 1% 34% 31% 5% 0.60%
4. New Mexico 100% 16% 84% 3% 66% 29% 3% 0.20%
4. Butler 93% 13% 81% 0% 31% 18% 1% 0.10%
4. Oregon 95% 13% 83% 0% 22% 17% 2% 0.10%

 

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February 2nd, 2013 at 4:04 PM | It's been nice going into the (Score:2)
bacon1431
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Joined: 07/26/2008
MGoPoints: 3277

It's been nice going into the tournament looking at seeding rather than whether you get in or not the last couple years

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