Except for maybe Oregon, probably not. The other schools would be 5-8 point favorites (give or take a few points for home field) against any of the top five or so schools in the B1G. Play a couple of games as a two or three-point favorite and three more favored by a TD and chances are good you'll lose one of them.
Week Eleven Polls Are Out
I think with Robinson healthy we'd be 50-50 or better to beat any of those except Oregon at a neutral site. SC is inconsistent and has a shaky defense. Stanford is basically Notre Dame but with a weaker secondary. Oregon St doesn't do anything special on either side of the ball.
Ohio U 24 - Penn St 14 (loss to a MAC School)
Virginia 17- Penn St 16 (loss to a 3-6 Virginia team)
ASU 45 - Illinois 14
Louisiana Tech 52 - Illinois 24
Ball St 41 - Indiana 39
Navy 31 - Indiana 30
Oregon St 10 - Wisconsin 7 (in addition Wisky barely squeaked by Northern Iowa by 5, UTEP by 11 and Utah St by 2.
Iowa St 9 - Iowa 6
Central Michigan 32 - Iowa 31
UCLA 36 - Nebraska 30
UM, MSU and Purdue all lost to ND.
Fair or unfair that's a lot of losses in non-conference play with no marquee wins to speak of in non-conference play. The Big Ten's fate was sealed before conference play even began.
Not a good showing, but the loses to UCLA, Oreg St, Louis Tech, and to a certain extent ASU are not bad losses, though they seemed like it at the time.
Sparty should be ranked in the top 5. They legit only lost one game this season and the other 4 they lost to the black and white stripped shirt guys.
SEC: 7 (1, 5, 7, 9, 11, 14, 23)
Pac 12: 5 (2, 12, 15, 19, 22)
BXII: 3 (3, 13, 17)
ACC: 2 (6, 8)
B1G: 2 (16, 21)
Big East: 2 (10, 20)
D1 IND: 1 (4)
WAC: 1 (18)
MWC: 1 (24)
MAC: 1 (25)
SEC: 7 (1, 5, 7, 9, 12, 15, 22)
Pac 12: 5 (2, 13, 16, 17, 21)
Big XII: 4 (3, 14, 19, 25)
B1G: 2 (5, 18)
ACC: 2 (8, 10)
Big East: 2 (11, 24)
D1 IND: 1 (4)
WAC: 1 (20)
MAC: 1 (23)
It seems like this always happens as we get deeper in the season, but the polls now share 23 teams regardless of position. They share the same seven SEC teams, the same five Pac-12 teams, three of the four Big XII teams, both ACC teams and both Big East teams as well as Louisiana Tech and ND. In another week or two, they could be almost perfect duplicates save for Ohio State.
I can live with that.
Polls don't matter. The goal is to win the B1G Championship and beat ohio.
This Is MICHIGAN.
I can point out the many flaws; OSU #5, Toledo and Usc still ranked and others, but using our record, SOS and this season as defense of Michigan being ranked is pure homerism and ignoring the reality.
OSU is undefeated. They haven't really beaten anyone significant, but they ARE undefeated.
Toledo has won seven in a row or more, meh ok.
USC, they're ranked because they are USC.
Please don't compare us to USC. Did you watch the game last night? They have more size and team speed than we do, they're receivers are faster than our dbs and our offensive line isn't exactly blowing open holes for Fitz.
Do you think for a second that we could have scored 51 on Oregon??? Let alone holding them to 62??? That would have been the ugliest game in UM history if we were to play Oregon right now.
We shouldn't be ranked because we have beaten no one. Many others shouldn't be either, but if we win out, we'll get a better bowl game than the bottom half of the polls. Take care of business and let's see what happens.
I'd be pretty upset with not being ranked with our only losses to #1, #4 and #18
How did Clemson claw their way back in to the top 10?
they've won 5 straight. Although they really haven't beaten anyone of note. Just by virture of them winning and other teams losing they get moved up.
Interesting to read the wide range of opinions on the polls on this board. Unsurprisingly, most of you feel that UM is not ranked high enough, I don't really have an opinion one way or the other. All I know is you lost 3 games to three tough teams, but at the same time, you can't really point to a statement win against a good team. So, I'm curious, both polls have UM ranked at #28, if you disagree with that ranking, where would YOU rank UM?
I'm not sure where I would rate M at this point, but I do agree with people above that it's pretty frustrating being 28th when Vegas would probably have us favored by 10+ on several teams above us here.
If I had to make a pick, I'd say within a spot either way of USC; they've looked better at times, but their three losses are worse than M's. The 21-25 spots always seem random to me, so I don't think it's a big deal either way.
Geeze you guys should listen to yourselves. All I keep hearing is this team doesn't deserve to be ranked and that team doesn't deserved to be ranked. You guys do realize there are 25 spots that have to be filled even if the teams aren't really that great?
Sagarin predictor ratings of teams in the AP poll but not in the Sagarin top 25:
- 34. Mississippi State
- 46. Rutgers
- 48. Louisville
- 49. Louisiana Tech
- 73. Toledo
Top 25 teams in the Sagarin predictor not in the AP poll:
- 13. Arizona State
- 18. Oklahoma State
- 19. BYU
- 21. Utah State
- 23. Michigan
Utah is #26, just to add to the regional flavoring here.
There does seem to be a systematic overvaluing of Big East and to a lesser extent the south in the human polls at the expense of the west (Toledo's part of this too, since their only supposedly big win was against Cincinnati) . We'll get a small interregional test when Utah State goes to La Tech in a couple of weeks; otherwise we pretty much have to wait for the bowls because it's conference play from here on out.
How is USC ranked with a 6-3 record and two losses in a row?
because they started number 1,
but they all have them ranked. So I don't think that's all of it.
Barkley and those receivers would pick our secondary apart over 60 minutes. Remember, the main reason our pass defense is ranked so high is because the only team that could pass well against us was Alabama. The rest of the teams we played couldn't complete a pass downfield because of accuracy, not spectacular D on our part.
Our secondary doesn't have the speed to keep up with big, fast wideouts. Against Nebraska, they had at least five opportunities to complete big pass plays, Martinez is simply a poor throwing Qb, that's why those passes weren't completed. Go look at the replay, those guys were wide open.
We're not bad on pass defense, we play in a conference with bad throwing QBs. All the QBs we have faced are in the bottom if not bottom 25% of all passers in the country. AS passing teams, Purdue is 69th, MSU 78th, Nebraska 80th, ND 90th and Minnesota 94th,
Our pass offense is 108 and Illinois, Umass and Air Force are worse.
Bottom line, we're not as good as we look.
Passing yardage is a terrible metric. Alabama's 81st, right behind Nebraska in passing yards--they don''t have to pass a lot because most of the time they're busy running the ball down people's throats. It's a choice, not a measure of skill. They're completing 67% of their passes for more than 9 YPA and they haven't thrown an interception all year. That's a bad passing team?
to watch people get all up in arms about the polls. Go back and look at the polls from previous years and you'll that the final polls end up looking like this:
one loss teams
two loss teams
three loss teams
Now there might be a 2 loss team ahead of one or two one loss teams and a 3 loss team ahead of a couple of 2 loss teams but that's how the polls end up. It's not rocket science and it's probably not right but that's how the polls end up. Your conference's reputation is made in the non-conference slate (and in the case of the SEC from dominating the BCS title game).