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Week 12 Opening Lines: Iowa @ Michigan OTB

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November 11th, 2012 at 8:22 PM
#1
Leaders And Best
Leaders And Best's picture
Joined: 09/09/2009
MGoPoints: 12751
Week 12 Opening Lines: Iowa @ Michigan OTB

Week 12 Opening Lines of interest:

Iowa @ Michigan - off the board

Minnesota @ Nebraska -19

Ohio State @ Wisconsin -1

Northwestern @ MSU -5

Wake Forest @ ND -22

Stanford @ Oregon -24

Kansas St. @ Baylor +10

 

Early betting coming in on Wisconsin (line moving to -2.5), MSU (moving to -6), Stanford (moving to +22), KSU (moving to -11 to -12), and ND (moving to -24).

 

 

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November 11th, 2012 at 8:34 PM
#2
spartanfan123
Joined: 02/15/2012
MGoPoints: 633
MSU moved from -5 to -6?

MSU moved from -5 to -6? Surprising, would've figured it would move down towards NU's side. 

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November 11th, 2012 at 8:39 PM
(Reply to #2) #3
upshaw
Joined: 11/11/2012
MGoPoints: 9
can't see Sate beating NU,

can't see Sate beating NU, regardless of the line. 

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November 11th, 2012 at 8:42 PM
(Reply to #4) #4
Leaders And Best
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Not so certain about that.

MSU is playing at home coming off a bye week against a team that just had an emotional OT loss where their 2 best offensive players got banged up.

Sagarin model would have MSU as a -2 pt favorite, but I think some other models like FO would have MSU as an even bigger favorite. And those don't factor in the bye week and injuries.

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November 11th, 2012 at 9:00 PM
(Reply to #5) #5
upshaw
Joined: 11/11/2012
MGoPoints: 9
good points, solid

good points, solid conventional wisdom - I'm just posting a hunch.  

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November 17th, 2012 at 9:58 PM
(Reply to #11) #6
upshaw
Joined: 11/11/2012
MGoPoints: 9
hunch was right

where's my cookie?  Made, get this y'all, $125 today betting against Sparty coworkers.  

Giddy-up.

 

 

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November 11th, 2012 at 11:51 PM
(Reply to #5) #7
BlueinLansing
BlueinLansing's picture
Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 16425
Dn't forget

Northwestern gave up a big lead to Sparty in Chicago last year, Fitz has mentioned more than a couple times he'd really like to return the favor.  I think Sparty is in for a war

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November 11th, 2012 at 9:59 PM
(Reply to #4) #8
spartanfan123
Joined: 02/15/2012
MGoPoints: 633
Both teams have given up 2nd

Both teams have given up 2nd half leads in all of their losses this year (except MSU-ND), so it honestly could be which team collapses first/harder

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November 11th, 2012 at 8:34 PM
#9
Jeff09
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Joined: 06/25/2011
MGoPoints: 6831
I was just wondering, how

I was just wondering, how would the Michigan line differ if either we knew for certain that Denard was playing, or knew for certain that Devin was playing?  Curious if anyone knows people in Vegas who could answer this type of question.  That might be the single best objective measure of the Denard v. Devin discussion that everyone either really wants to have or really doesn't want to have.

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November 11th, 2012 at 8:55 PM
(Reply to #3) #10
Arrogant MichMan
Joined: 04/10/2011
MGoPoints: 154
Probably not

I doubt people will change their choice of winner just because of the QB, or bet a lesser amount.

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November 11th, 2012 at 9:10 PM
(Reply to #10) #11
Red is Blue
Red is Blue's picture
Joined: 05/13/2010
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Yeah, QBs don't really

Yeah, QBs don't really matter.  For example, it wouldn't matter to me if the Patriots started Brady or Mallet.  

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November 11th, 2012 at 9:59 PM
(Reply to #13) #12
spartanfan123
Joined: 02/15/2012
MGoPoints: 633
Well if they were playing

Well if they were playing Iowa, it wouldn't matter. 

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November 11th, 2012 at 8:45 PM
#13
LSAClassOf2000
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Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 81361
Using The Sagarin Ratings...

If we were to go by the Sagarin ratings, current as of earlier today, Michigan would be a 16-point favorite at home against Iowa right now, if I am using the model correctly. This might even be reasonable at this point as an opening line, given how these numbers have been trending recently - we've remained fairly stable in the Sagarin ratings, whereas Iowa has dropped significantly. 

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November 11th, 2012 at 8:50 PM
#14
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
So Wisconsin (which plays OSU

So Wisconsin (which plays OSU and then PSU) could potentially finish 5-3 or even 4-4 and win the Big Ten title while Michigan could potentially finish 7-1 and get shut out.  That's just crazy.  Needless to say, I'm not a big fan of the divisions and conference title game.   I never had a problem with having teams share the league title.

 

 

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November 11th, 2012 at 8:53 PM
(Reply to #7) #15
Logan88
Joined: 01/05/2009
MGoPoints: 4643
Never been a fan of

Never been a fan of conference title games myself. They are just shameless money grabs that often screw the best team in the conference out of their deserved title in a one-game-winner-take-all format.

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November 11th, 2012 at 9:08 PM
(Reply to #9) #16
Arrogant MichMan
Joined: 04/10/2011
MGoPoints: 154
CCG

is a joke.  I hope it gets exposed for what it is.

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November 11th, 2012 at 9:43 PM
(Reply to #12) #17
MGoSoftball
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I dont

I dont care for the B1G CG either.  We could have a team with a losing conference record, go to the Rose Bowl.

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November 11th, 2012 at 10:55 PM
(Reply to #20) #18
spartanfan123
Joined: 02/15/2012
MGoPoints: 633
Wisconsin should just bench

Wisconsin should just bench Ball, White, and Phillips for the OSU game and save the risk of injury

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November 11th, 2012 at 10:03 PM
(Reply to #9) #19
spartanfan123
Joined: 02/15/2012
MGoPoints: 633
MSU last year... sigh. 

MSU last year... sigh. 

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November 11th, 2012 at 10:28 PM
(Reply to #25) #20
Monocle Smile
Monocle Smile's picture
Joined: 09/17/2009
MGoPoints: 12247
Oh, shut up

Your tears still taste like sugar, so stop crying about it.

You had a chance in that game. All the chances. You blew all of them. Move on.

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November 11th, 2012 at 10:52 PM
(Reply to #27) #21
spartanfan123
Joined: 02/15/2012
MGoPoints: 633
who's crying about it? He

who's crying about it? He said how conference championship games hurt teams with better records and i gave an example. Jesus, relax. 

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November 11th, 2012 at 11:56 PM
(Reply to #28) #22
Monocle Smile
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Joined: 09/17/2009
MGoPoints: 12247
Bad example

He said conference championships can screw the best team in the conference.

Michigan State was not the best team in the conference last year, nor did it have a better overall record than the team it lost to. The difference in conference record was a single game. Ergo, complaining about MSU getting "screwed" by a conference championship game that was most definitely a contest between the best two teams in the conference is nothing short of whining.

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November 11th, 2012 at 8:50 PM
#23
Logan88
Joined: 01/05/2009
MGoPoints: 4643
With the way ND has struggled

With the way ND has struggled to beat anyone in South Bend this season, I would take those points and go with Wake.

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November 11th, 2012 at 9:19 PM
(Reply to #8) #24
Belisarius
Joined: 08/12/2010
MGoPoints: 1267
You must not have watched WF

You must not have watched WF play this year.

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November 11th, 2012 at 9:43 PM
(Reply to #14) #25
bklein09
bklein09's picture
Joined: 08/24/2009
MGoPoints: 7209
No but I watched Purdue and

No but I watched Purdue and Pitt play this year. Both are horrible teams that almost won in SB.

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November 11th, 2012 at 9:37 PM
#26
Brhino
Joined: 09/08/2009
MGoPoints: 7064
Come on, Gophers, we know you

Come on, Gophers, we know you guys can do it.  Don't let that -19 get you down.  That just means they won't see you coming.

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November 11th, 2012 at 9:43 PM
(Reply to #15) #27
AmaizeingBlue
Joined: 09/01/2010
MGoPoints: 1539
(No subject)

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November 11th, 2012 at 11:02 PM
(Reply to #15) #28
snarling wolverine
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Joined: 12/14/2011
MGoPoints: 42990
I'd have more faith in

I'd have more faith in Minnesota if they'd put Gray back at QB.  Nelson has potential, but you're not going to win in Lincoln with a frosh QB.

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November 11th, 2012 at 9:37 PM
#29
AmaizeingBlue
Joined: 09/01/2010
MGoPoints: 1539
Am I the only one surprised

Am I the only one surprised that OSU is a one point underdog?

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November 11th, 2012 at 9:39 PM
(Reply to #16) #30
TheGhostofYost
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Joined: 04/20/2011
MGoPoints: 2971
I'm not surprised.  Both

I'm not surprised.  Both teams have looked like crap, so give the advantage to the home team.

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November 11th, 2012 at 9:56 PM
(Reply to #16) #31
Leaders And Best
Leaders And Best's picture
Joined: 09/09/2009
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And the early betting is coming in on Wisconsin as well

The Sagarin ratings hate Ohio State and would predict Wisconsin -3 at home. This game could be one of the most interesting and underrated games of the weekend.

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November 11th, 2012 at 11:01 PM
(Reply to #16) #32
snarling wolverine
snarling wolverine's picture
Joined: 12/14/2011
MGoPoints: 42990
I can see it.  Ohio has been

I can see it.  Ohio has been living on the edge all season.  I think they finally go down.  

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November 12th, 2012 at 3:18 AM
(Reply to #30) #33
aiglick
Joined: 11/27/2010
MGoPoints: 7860
Would be really bad for

Would be really bad for Michigan for OSU to lose before playing us.

If Nebraska doesn't lose a game we may have a shot at a Top-14 BCS ranking by winning out which would give us a shot at an at-large BCS berth.

Iowa win would not count for much unless other teams ahead of us look bad by losing games.

OSU is almost a top 5 team and a win against such a team on the road in a rivalry game should look pretty impressive to people and result in a massive ranking lift were we to win out.

Focus on Iowa but BCS may be in reach even without a Nebraska loss.

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November 12th, 2012 at 8:42 AM
(Reply to #39) #34
TruBluMich
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Joined: 08/03/2011
MGoPoints: 4496
I'm trying real hard to

I'm trying real hard to figure out the scenario where we end up in a BCS game this year, unless it's the Rose Bowl.  Right now were ranked 21st, so we have to move up 7 spots.

As for the SEC I don't see any of those teams moving below Michigan even with 3 losses, so you can take them out of the equation.

Florida State has to lose to Florida and in the ACC CCG.
Oklahoma would have to beat Oklahoma State and lose to TCU or West Virginia.
Texas would have to beat TCU and lose to Kansas State.
Oregon State has to lose to Oregon.
Stanford has to lose to Oregon and beat UCLA.
UCLA has to lose to USC in a close game and lose to Stanford.
USC has to beat UCLA and lose to Notre Dame and also Oregon in CCG.  (this opens another at-large)
Rutgers has to beat Louisville and lose to Cincinnati or Pitt.
As for Louisiana Tech ya they might lose a game I doubt it, so the computers are going to have to help.
Then if any of the 2 loss SEC teams lose 2 games.

Then it comes down to the selection process.
BCS = Oregon and Kansas State
----------------------------------------------------------------
This is almost the only matchup that allows Michigan into a BCS game, KState could lose to Baylor and there is still a possibility but very slim.  There are a few other scenarios but highly unlikley.

Rose Bowl = Nebraska vs Open
Orange Bowl = Miami (Remember FSU has to lose the CCG) vs OPEN
Sugar Bowl = Alabama/Georgia vs OPEN
Fiesta Bowl = OPEN vs OPEN

So 5 open spots assuming there is only one PAC12 team, teams we would be competiting with LSU, Georgia/Alabama, South Carolina, Florida, Texas A&M, Clemson and USC/Stanford/UCLA and Notre Dame.

Now only one of the 4 SEC teams is getting an at-large bid and its going to be Georgia or Alabama with a small possibility of Florida or LSU in the Fiesta Bowl.  Now if there's a PAC12 team available they are going to the Rose Bowl.  So there's Notre Dame, Clemson and Michigan left for 3 open spots.  Notre Dame is an automatic qualifier.  So in this very very very very highly unlikely scenario Michigan would go to the Orange Bowl, Clemson whichever bowl Alabama isn't in and play Georgia and Notre Dame gets a shot at Bama.

Now there is a very real chance Notre Dame passes Oregon and makes the BCS NCG, in that case, were out unless all 3 PAC12 teams lose.

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November 11th, 2012 at 9:42 PM
#35
TheGhostofYost
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Joined: 04/20/2011
MGoPoints: 2971
Anybody else seeing the

Anybody else seeing the avatars in Grey and Red?  What's going on?

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November 11th, 2012 at 11:36 PM
(Reply to #18) #36
kevin holt
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Joined: 03/16/2010
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Black and White for you

Black and White for you actually

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November 11th, 2012 at 10:04 PM
#37
spartanfan123
Joined: 02/15/2012
MGoPoints: 633
Also Early Line for Kansas

Also Early Line for Kansas St-Oregon is Oregon -7. 

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November 11th, 2012 at 11:30 PM
#38
langkyl
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Joined: 08/13/2009
MGoPoints: 311
My guess...

Will be Michigan -13.5.

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November 11th, 2012 at 11:37 PM
#39
kevin holt
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Joined: 03/16/2010
MGoPoints: 16959
...and off the board means

...and off the board means what, exactly?

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November 12th, 2012 at 12:18 AM
(Reply to #34) #40
Leaders And Best
Leaders And Best's picture
Joined: 09/09/2009
MGoPoints: 12751
Sportsbooks not accepting bets on the game at this time

Due to Michigan's uncertain QB situation, the game probably won't open for betting until they get a better handle on Denard's injury status.

The game will probably open around Michigan -14.

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November 12th, 2012 at 5:47 AM
#41
JohnnyV123
Joined: 04/08/2011
MGoPoints: 939
Stanford +24 is a real

Stanford +24 is a real interesting bet.

Oregon hasn't played anyone with a great run defense this year so it really comes down to how you feel about Stanford's offense. That new QB they have in there looked good enough last week and they got the win over Oregon State who also has a good defense and elite rush defense.

I'm betting on Stanford!

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