Big day. Whoa.
#Michigan has offered 2014 New Hampton (N.H.) Prep guard Aubrey Dawkins
Wonder what this means regarding McGary or Hatch.
My thoughts exactly. My gut tells me this is not a good sign re: McGary. I hope I'm wrong though.
Adding a couple of guards would not be the reaction to McGary departing. And if he does go (please fucking don't!!!!) we'll have another scholarship open up. Next year's team really didn't have a back-up 2 guard (Irvin is a starter at the 3 most likely and the incoming guys are bigger players). Now they potentially have two options after LeVert if both these guys come on board.
This is good news, it seems to me.
Agreed. If anything, offering another guard after one commits would mean that McGary is staying, since they're not making it a priority to use these spots on a big man. That said, I don't think it suggests either way.
I think this is in response to 1) Stauskas leaving, and 2) Chatman being big.
said he'll take up a schollie spot so he's part of the scholarship count.
We need the scholly. But it seems pretty unrealistic to think Hatch ever plays meaningful at UM.
What's annoying about the obsession over Hatch's scholarship is the constant worry about scholarship numbers when it's been demonstrated year after year that these situations inevitably work themselves out.
And I'll bet the people who keep trying to give away Hatch's spot on the team are the same ones who, in the aftermath of the plane crash, declared flat out that there was no way he would ever be able to play basketball again—at any level. Well, guess what...
The obsession amongst michigan fans over one scholarship slot when these situations inevitably work themselves out one way or another is frustrating.
the whole time and is going to take away Hatch's athletic scholarship before he even finishes high school. How anyone can be certain of that is beyond me.
If the plan was to immediately medical Hatch, why not say so? Hatch certainly doesn't seem to believe that's going to happen.
Why does anyone think Hatch is gonna play. He couldn't even play high school ball and is gonna all of a sudden play for us. We did him good kept our commitment to him and he will come here and get a medical scholarship and everyone wins. Just get tired of people assuming or thinking Hatch is gonna play. Not to pile on the kid or be negative but that's the facts dude survived a plane crash and could barely walk 2 years ago. I wish him all the luck but he won't take up a scholarship. Belien says he is gonna give him every chance but what's he suppose to say?
These guys being on campus I thought this would happen.
If he hypothetically commits, would this mean we move Hatch to a medical scholarship thingy and go after a big man, possibly in the transfer market? That seems to be the smartest strategy.
Also, stocking up on athletic wings seems to be a pretty decent strategy as well...
Beilein has said fairly recently that he will be on a full athletic scholarship. I think at this point we're standing pat if Mitch stays and using his spot for a big (if we can find anybody) if he goes.
team managers get a full ride if they stay 4 years(shhh)
Hatch said that Beilein told him "Whatever you're able to do. Whether that's being a manager, a practice player, whatever, you're on scholarship no matter what".
That certainly can't mean that we will sacrifice an athletic scholarship for 4 years if he can't contribute on the court---particularly as we can honor the committment and yet retain the scholarship by getting a medical waiver. That's what the medical waiver is for. It seems Austin is under no delusion. He will be a most welcomed addition.
Hmm, not sure how I feel about this. I'm operating under the common assumption that it was either/or with MAAR and Dawkins, and that they would look to a transfer or bank a scholly for the other spot (I think Ace litteraly just said this in the MAAR commitment post as well). So Mr. Pessimistic here sees this as a) they don't like their chances with any of the transfers (boo, I like transfers, especially when they're good), or b) they have another open scholly due to McGary leaving this year. I like option B less.
I'd guess they probably don't like their chances with any transfers they're interested in. The two that Sam Webb mentioned the other day as actually being on the Michigan board were Sean Obi and Cole Huff. Obi doesn't seem interested in Michigan and just had a very good visit to Duke, and I'm guessing Huff will head back to his home territory in SoCal now that USC and UCLA have expressed interest in him.
Well poop. Wonder why Harris isn't on UM's board. Seems like he's right up the ally of what Beilein looks for in his gaurds; great 3 shooter, able to create his own shot. Also I think UM is fine this year coming up, but the year after that...well, they're probably losing LeVert, and maybe Irvin if he has a great year. Just seems like Harris is right up their ally from a distance.
Are teams even allowed to contact Harris yet? Throw in all the competition for his services and the stated desire to be closer to home and there are a lot of question marks with respect to landing him. Not to mention he offers no help next season.
Beilein and Co. just may prefer taking their chances on landing a better player in the 2015 recruiting class while also shoring up their depth for next season with MAAR/Dawkins.
Yep, makes me think no transfers for us and Huff wants to stay local. Bummer - he looked very interesting and had great size and experience.
Bye bye Coleman, Brunson and Davis and possibly McQuaid.
Why concede Sviat, Huff, or Harris? I just don't know.
Why does this mean bye to the Jalens??
Brunson stresses playing time. Coleman I could still see but now 4-5 YOUNG guards/wings on the roster befoe they would even come.
The depth chart shuffles in his favor once he arrives. He has nothing to worry about. One year of mixing in at PG and 2 guard then the show will be his to run unless D Walton stays all 4 years....which I don't think is likely.
Duke: "Hey come start day 1"
Villanova: "Hey come start day 1"
Kansas: "Hey come start day 1"
and even Illinois: "Hey come start day 1"
So Duke and Kansas are to light on talent that these guys will start there from day 1, but would be buried at Michigan? I have a hard time buying into that.
Yes, Duke has a one and done in Tyus Jones and will want Brunson.
Kansas has stop gap and Jerrance Howard is close to Rick Brunson
Ill maybe better than UM next year and has promised him as a starter
Villanova is East coast ties to Rick
Your last 3 points make no difference based on today's events.
As for Duke, you don't know who will be 1 and done, especially with pending changes to that rule. And they also have studs at SG and SF and Luke Kennard already committed in 2015. You think that won't scare him away, but MAAR and (potentially) Dawkins will here?
Dukes gets 1&D and is Duke.
I actually have no idea what that means, but I know that lots of kids who look like one and dones don't turn out that way. A lot of people though GRIII or McGary would be one and dones, same thing with Gary Harris. Most people thought the Harrisons would be sure-fire one and dones this year, same with Dakari Johnson, Hollis-Jefferson or Wayne Seldon.
Tyus Jones is the 6th best incoming frosh, which would probably make him somewhere around 10th in the NBA draft if that holds. But a lot can happen over the next year, and he's not an Andrew Wiggins slam dunk. Off the top of my head, only 5 of last years top 10 frosh declared for this year's draft. That means Tyus Jones is about 50-50.
Majority of your list CHOOSE to turn down 1&D. Not the norm.
Anyways, Dawkins hasn't committed yet. Maybe he won't? I'm off to watch GS vs LA.
Who on that list had a legit shot at being drafted high and decided to come back? The advisory board kind of helps you with that choice, you know. It's not like there were a lot of projected lottery picks who decided to stay another year.
GR3 and McGary... lottery picks
Hollis-Jefferson and Dakari... solidly 1st round
Selden... fringe 1st
Most of those are pretty optimistic, especially since Hollis-Jefferson and Dakari weren't even starters. But either way - Tyus might decide to come back like the guys you listed, or he just might not be good enough after one year, which happens to big recruits all the time.
If Brunson is so hung up on being a starter, he'd really be banking on Tyus Jones making what is likely a 50-50 decision.
That we kick Derrick Walton out of school now so that some recruit can be guaranteed immediate PT?
Signing MAAR/Dawkins is not going to scare off anyone and there will be plenty of scholarships available after LeVert/McGary and possibly one or two others go pro next season. No other school is cancelling their recruiting class so they can land highly touted guys a year later.
We could have sold Brunson w/ playing time at the 2. Now? Not so much.
If they are that good we'll be in fine shape. If not, Brunson has nothing to worry about and I doubt will be scared off. LeVert will be gone to the NBA and Irvin will have spent a year at the 3 (if he isn't off to the pros as well). No other team is going to have zero guards on the roster.
So Brunson, who is a star, won't get any time at the 2 because we picked up a 2-star recruit or two? I bet that's not how he sees it.
And Irvin, so yes.
There are two wing spots, so with LeVert gone, we could go Walton-Brunson-Irvin no problem.
You're either much higher on these late additions than anyone else or really down on Brunson's self-confidence.
I expect Chatman as our 3 in year 2 and Wilson/Donnal at the 4. And yes, I expect at least 1 of these guys to get major minutes by year 2.
Your big fear is that the 2015-16 team starts a junior Derrick Walton, junior Zak Irvin, and sophomore Kameron Chatman at the 1, 2, and 3? All top-50 recruits, two of whom have already proven to be solid, talented players?
Geez, what a fucking nightmare!
And the year after?
Do you really think that you/we can say anything reasonable about Michigan's 2016-17 roster right now?
Maybe but you want to stockpile high caliber 14' and 15' recruits in preparation
If they're really that high caliber they will beat these guys out. You almost seem to be more interested in winning recruiting wars than actual games. Good thing Stauskas didn't stay away because Vogrich was here.
beat them out for backup minutes? I'm sure they are elated.
This train is hard to follow.
So does this boil down to you think that they should not take these guys because it could stop us from getting '15 guys who wouldn't be good enough to beat out these guys as sophomores? Are you suggesting that Coach K and Bill Self promise guys playing time at their historically dominant programs who aren't good enough to beat out 2 star players with one year in a system? To me, it seems that if you don't think the '15 guys are good enough to beat these two out, you don't hold the '15 guys in very high esteem and we shouldn't be getting worked up about it.
Beilein has never hesitated to play younger guys over older guys if they're better (see Stauskas and McGary starting the Final Four over Morgan / Horford and Vogrich). If these particular '15 guys (or any '15 guys) are good enough, they will play, and if they're not then I think we'll be happy we grabbed some guys in this class.
1. Duke and Kansas will have open spots. UM will have Derrick Walton. If K or Self had physically mature guards who knew their system, Brunson would not start, but they won't.
2. It doesn't have tpo do with "how good they are" but adjusting to the game. MAAR and Dawkins would eat into minues while they learned but some high profiles may be thrown to the fire.
3.I like MAAR's and Dawkins' game and think both will have productive 4 year careers. I preferred 1, not both. Dawkins hasn't committed so all this may be rendered irrelevent.
I agree with your very last sentence. All this back and forth will eventually prove to be much ado about nothing.
Every year they do it, like clockwork. There will be another Brunson type character for all of us to worry about then. If Brunson himself is that great (wherever he goes), he wouldn't be around for year 2 anyway.
I suggest taking up whiskey. It will take the edge off and help you see that times are good.
Also, if Brunson is as insistent as reanimator is saying that he doesn't have to compete for playing time, I'm not sure how devastated Beilein and co. would be if he went elsewhere.
I should say that I'm also not convinced yet that two offers today was wise, but the least of my worries with this is Jalen Brunson.
And what does any of that have to do with MAAR and Dawkins? Brunson is a point guard. If anything, getting two non-PGs reduces the chance that he'd be in more of a fight for minutes.
Walton might scare away Brunson. MAAR and Dawkins almost certainly won't.
If Dawkins commits, that would give us 4 true wing types, with one of them likely gone after this season, and another one 2 years older than anyone in the 2015 class. That means the guys from that class only need to beat out one of Dawkins and MAAR to be the first guy off the bench (Irvin's role this year). I don't expect that to scare anyone away.
Brunson would be behind Walton 2 and Spike 1
Coleman behind Irvin 2, maybe Levert 1 and 2 guys who could be ahead
go to a blublood with an immediate need and no depth.
Weren't you complaining about not landing a transfer like Harris in another thread? Wouldn't a guy like that be more likely to scare off potential recruits than two lightly regarded freshmen who we kind of need to fill out the bench right away?
Harris would be worth it and onl 2 years.
But Spike and Walton were here before today, so what does today have to do with him?
I doubt LeVert stays, and Coleman probably knows that, and he wouldn't be "behind' Irvin because they could both play at the same time. He would only have to deal with one or two lightly recruited guys who are only one year older than him. I have no idea why you're so worked up about this.
Which is where a backcourt of Walton-Brunson could have worked. Now? No.
There is nothing stopping that from happening. I don't know what you are basing your worry on.
Walton and Brunson could play together and Irvin could play the 3 (assuming he's even still here). LeVert won't be here and Brunson would just have to beat out two guys who are going to be no more than bench players next season (and likely only one of them will land that kind of role).
Again, no other elite program is going to have a roster devoid of guards who could "potentially" beat out Brunson should he sign with them.
Mr.Wolvin, I like your style. Donate a point or two to a brotha!
I don't think Brunson will shy away from Michigan because of either one. He's much better than both of them based on video. Maybe these two come in and light it up; provided how little playing time either will get I seriously doubt it. The more likely issue will be scholarships. If Mitch stays, we'll probably see McGary and maybe Levert leave for the NBA next year, though.
I thought these top kids always think they can come in and win the job right away. Does Bruson lack the competitive edge to compete once he gets on campus?
Not if Duke or Kansas doesn't make you.
Oh please. Let's not act like those teams have no one on their roster right now and won't over the next two recruiting classes. What if one of the Duke guards isn't quite NBA ready and comes back? What if they pick up someone else as well in the same class?
are they going to be afraid of lightly recruited late singees? Michigan needs some "program" guys.
When the bluebloods have a starting position and less depth? Yes.
Why do you think the bluebloods will have a starting positionn available in 2015? They have no guards on their team or what?
Because they graduate or have 1&D at PG?
make sense. If they are replacing Walton and/or Caris and/or Irvin, there openings. The backups are irrelevant, particularly when they aren't highly ranked/recruited kids waiting their turn. The only trouble could be if one of these guys blew up in some unimaginable way as freshmen. And if that happens, I will be less worried about 2015 recruiting.
This doesn't mean anything in regards to McGary. We had an extra spot regardless and Dawkins isn't a 5.
Could mean something in regards to McGary. They may still be interested in a transfer big man, but now that they have two extra schollys (in this hypothetical that the coach now know McGary is leaving) and decide to use one a second on a class of 2014 wing.
The coaches know what they're doing in regards to Brunson and other targets. Levert is leaving for sure. Walton and Irvin may leave next year or the year after. Spike and caris Levert as late offers worked out well.
I take it from the lack of mention that the Stephen Zimmerman ship has sailed - true? Why?
Pretty sure that has been over for a while.
I had thought he visited Ann Arbor somewhere around this time last year and I don't think we offered at that point. Indeed, a quick look at 247Sports just now - if this is current - shows that we did not. His highest interest, according to them, would be in Arizona, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, UCLA, UNLV and North Carolina. His only Big Ten offers are Indiana and Ohio State.
Zimmerman via his stepmom's twitter, eliminated us last fall.
Brunson wouldn't be behind Spike and I'm not sure how taking MAAR and Dawkins has any effect on their recruitment as we were going to have Walton and Irvin regardless.
Brunson has made it known what he wants.
What's that? No other players on the team?
Brunson has made it known what he wants.
he wants double posts?
I'm not sure how much I like this, but I trust beilein. I can't help but feel like with the way we have been playing that we should be snagging some high level recruits right now though...
Why take both MAAR and Dawkins? Gotta think this does not bode well for landing two guards in 2015 which means only 1 of the Jalens, Ahrens, Davis and McQuade. I know some people don't like to bank schollys and our staff has hit recently with late offers but I don't think getting both of these players is a good strategy.
Unless this means we don't have a very good shot at landing more than one of our top guard/wing prospects in 2015, and if that is the case why are doing worse with top prospects than we were prior to our on court success?
If Irvin starts at the 3 (which I think is a very safe assumption) we really have only one 2-guard on the roster next year (LeVert) and he's probably gone after next season. Taking two guys (both of whom could probably play the 3 as well) ups the chances that you find one who can contribute a little bit next year.
Next year you replace LeVert with a blue-chip recruit and everything is golden.
This was well said.
Hopefully it's also a good sign that after seeing these guys in person the coaches (and players, apparently) decided that both are worth an offer.
With Hatch almost certainly out of the picture for next year and Wilson/Chatman both potentially looking more like 4's in Beilein's system, you may need a guy at both the 2 and the 3 off the bench. In that case, the UMHoops scouting report seems to suggest MAAR as a better fit at the 2 (more handle, less outside stroke) and Dawkins as a better fit at the 3 (better shooter with less playmaking ability), with both viewed as athletic and potentially good defensively.
And with Dawkins being an NBA player and NCAA coach's son, he fits the Beilein recruiting MO nicely.
Irvin is a 2 after next year and Wilson or Doyle will start.
Thanks for the info!
Which isn't happening.
And trust the coaches. A championship game appearance, an outright B1G title, and an elite 8 appearance in two years. I think they've shown they have a good idea of what they're doing.
If this success wasn't so recent and unsustained, I'd agree.
But it's not like Beilein's success was a one-year fluke or all attributable to one star player. Let's even ignore his pre-Michigan success. Beilein took over a program in pretty rough shape and in seven seasons has made the NCAA tournament five times (advancing past the round of 64 each time), won two Big Ten titles, and been to the Elite Eight twice and championship game once.
Those five tournament teams each had essentially a different star player.
2008-09: Manny Harris
2010-11: Darius Morris
2011-12: ? (Burke? Novak? Hardaway?)
2012-13: Trey Burke
2013-14: Nik Stauskas
If "trust the coaches" has ever applied, it's probably right now with this staff.
Yes I am amazed at the consernation. Save it for football. I am perplexed why they are taking both guards myself but obviously we have zero idea what the coaches know so they probably know how likely X transfer is or Y commit in 2015 is etc. They have earned the benefit of the doubt.
Saying X guard won't come here because we signed two 2-3 stars is like saying Leonard Fournette was worried about Rawls.
When I say success? I mean B1G title contention and solid tournament runs. JB will have solid teams regardless but top tier?
His success is unsustained? In his 12 years coaching major D1 basketball, Beilein has been to the NCAA Tourney 7 times, never losing in the first round. He took BB power WVU to both the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8 in consecutive years. He has led UM to the sweet 16 in just under half (3) of his seven years as coach. He knows what he is doing.
Success as in what bluebloods define it.
Yet both Kansas and Duke have not based their blueblood status on one and done's. Most of their championships have come from great players surrounded by great role players.
even their roleplayers where highly regarded
i thought the program had a chance to become elite but more wisconsin, gonzaga level
Yet, that's what you are saying Brunson doesn't want. In your arguement, Duke and Kansas would never have gotten Brunson in their championship years because their role layers were highy recruited? So you want us to recruit depth and role players like bluebloods (everybody is highly ranked), but always have openings and no depth in case highly ranked want a clear path to the starting job.
I understand now.
No, Kansas and Duke has no one at that position in 15-16
McQuaid, Coleman and Brunson were all likely 3-4 year guys that were haevily UM leans. Now you get one.
So are saying Brunson and Coleman potential one and dones or are they 3-4 year players? Or are you saying they are one and done talents that will be here for 3 - 4 years? Are you saying they will be starters or role players/depth. If you are saying they will start from day 1, then how are you saying they will be 3-4 year players? Most players that start from day one in an established program aren't 3-4 year players. Or are you saying that they aren't good enough for early entry to The NBA? If they aren't, then can't we find someone else at their talent level? Please clarify.
1. Brunson and Coleman are multi-year and I don't expect either to start their freshmen year. I expected UM to use 2 PG and 3 small guard lineups extensively. Coleman and Brunson are both too small/ physically underdeveloped for 1&D but their skill level cannot be questioned. With that said, I see MAAR and Dawkins (if he commits) eating up 20-30 mpg their first year just from experience and from a physical standpoint. The Jalens would fully surpass them in year 2 but do they want to wait?
What you're saying is possible, but I bet they don't see it that way. I don't think either of them will be deterred by a couple of true frosh seeing very little PT. They will be looking at starters and who is coming back. Most people feel Caris won't come back, which would leave a starting spot open.
it's interesting how now you say you don't expect either to start their freshman year, but you said that Kansas and Duke will promise them a starting spot immediately.
Because Kansas and Duke are 1&D mills and will have nothing there, as far as Brunson.
Self has beeen scrambling for areal PG since Mario Chalmers and Cook/Jones are gone after next year
I believe that JB will play the best lineup for the program. You seem not to think that, correct?
The last two years (the two since Beilein started landing highly pursued players), UCLA, Indiana, and North Carolina have won 2 NCAA tournament games. Kansas, Ohio State, and Duke have won 3. MSU, Syracuse, and Kentucky have won 5. UConn has won 6. Florida has won 7.
Michigan has won 8 (tied with Louisville for most in the country). And has gone 3-2 against the teams on that list in the Big Dance. And sent 4 guys to the NBA. If Mitch comes back we're a top-10 team again with at least two more first round picks on the roster. We had Mr. Basketball in the state of Indiana coming off the bench last year and redshirted a top-100 recruit. Maybe this staff has the program on the right track and knows a little bit more about the team's needs going forward than you do?
I screwed this up in my post above, too, but he did lose to Ohio a couple of years ago in what's for all intents and purposes the first round.
Still, I'm with you on this.
Beilein has never lost in the first round? So we actually beat Ohio two years ago? Boy that's good to hear.
Last time I trust Wikipedia over my own memory. They had under JB's page UM going to the 2nd round in 2012.
Wikipedia is right it's considered the second round...just not be anybody who cares.
Sent their coach to Illinois and Levert to us.
Let it play out! Coach b knows what he's doing!!
It seems like the best programs can mix solid 3-5 year players in with 1-2 year players which is right about where we're at right now. I'm all for bringing in some guys who might fill the role player slot or can be solid 4 year guys. Programs with too much one-and-dones are too variable (see: UK) and obviously NBA talent is good.
Let's say Dawkins picks Michigan, it's still easy to see Michigan with four openings next year: Mitch goes, Caris goes, Hatch ends up on a medical, Bielfeldt doesn't return for his fifth year. And of course there's always the chance of someone else transferring or going pro (Irvin?)...Michigan can still, if they're so lucky, take the Jalens, McQuaid, and a big.
and planned on taking the first to commit? All it says is that he was offered. I know Beilein is careful with his offers but it is conceivable that he felt they were close enough talent wise that it was first taker gets it and made it clear to them both.
Haha. I love the people bitching in this thread. Times certainly are good if we're complaining after the recent records.
Let the coaches worry about this stuff. They seem to know what they're doing.
God forbid we discuss something on a message board
Yeah, but the bitching seems over the top as A) there is a scholarship available, B) guard depth for next year isn't great, C) the kids got hops and seems like a four year guy. I like taking a flier on him and hope his offer is still good after thee MAAR commitment. Hope this guy ends up with the good guys as well.
Drake Harris is a top 100 SG. Would be nice if he would play huh!
some people on this site are the worst.
michigan offers two <6'5" guys ==> mcgary must be gone.
michigan is offering two **-*** star talents ==> no ***** talent wants to compete with that!
we only have a sliver of the picture. why assume the worst? these two guys could both be the next laverts, mcgary can still stay, and we can still land those ***** talents. why not be happy about this? what is their to complain about with this program?
sheesh. sorry for being a dick here, but its really easy to spot the people who started following M ball in the last 18 months.
Agree. Because everyone on here knows more than the coaches do.
Lost in all this is the very real possibility that this is the last year for one and dones for a while. The new NBA commisioner has made it his top priority to raise the minimum age to 20. This will allow top players to go to the shcool they feel will develop them the best, not neccesarily where they will get immediate playing time. In that scenario, Michigan's recent success in developing players is a huge, huge factor.
Not disagreeing with your larger point, but the most recent articles I've read, such as this one, say any changes won't take effect for the 2015 draft.
Silver said a change was unlikely for next season, and a transition period would be necessary whenever one was made.