Weather Update: Joaquin now classified as a hurricane; not projected to make landfall until Monday

Submitted by SAMgO on

New day, new projections from the National Weather Service. Here's the latest projection map for what is now Hurricane Joaquin (and here's the link because the proportionality gets skewed in the forum):

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

 

 

Forecast for Saturday night in College Park currently calls for a 60% chance of rain and tempatures around 63 degrees. We're getting close to the three day territory where forecasts get considerably more accurate.

 

 

MGoBoard

mfan_in_ohio

September 30th, 2015 at 8:14 AM ^

wunderground.com has over a 50% chance of rain starting around noon on Thursday, rising to 100% virtually all day Friday and Saturday morning before it drops off significantly.  I don't know how well Maryland's field drains, but it looks like they're expecting 3-4 inches of rain in the two days before the game.  Also, should be pretty windy, so hopefully the ground game is working.

Joined: 01/26/2009

MGoPoints: 18189

ChalmersE

September 30th, 2015 at 8:21 AM ^

The latest from the WaPo's Capital Weather Gang:

To elaborate some more on Joaquin… We have a pretty good chance of seeing periods of moderate to potentially very heavy rain (several inches possible) Friday through Sunday *regardless* of  Joaquin’s exact track. However, if Joaquin gets close to the mid-Atlantic coast or makes landfall as a tropical storm or hurricane — a legitimate possibility — then we could be looking at a serious rain and flooding event with very strong winds too. Unfortunately, models are all over the place on both Joaquin’s track and intensity, so we’ll have to wait for a better consensus.

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 5196

bluesalt

September 30th, 2015 at 8:33 AM ^

Looks like it's going to be a very wet game regardless of Joaquin.  If it actually makes landfall near that time, I'm assuming they'd postpone the game, but i wonder when they could make it up.

The smart decision might be to move up the start time, but you probably have to make that decision sometime tomorrow.

Joined: 11/02/2011

MGoPoints: 8541

ChalmersE

September 30th, 2015 at 9:16 AM ^

Or perhaps move to Monday night. It seems by then most of the storm would be past the DC area.  BTW, last night DC got drenched and there were flash flood alerts and spotty power outages. I lost power for about two hours -- I'm about 20 minutes from the stadium -- and Dupont Circle also lost power for awhile.

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 5196

stephenrjking

September 30th, 2015 at 10:16 AM ^

Worth noting that Joaquin is occurring in a relatively unpredictable timeframe. Some weather patterns are easier to predict than others. This info courtesy of @RyanMaue, who is a meteorologist who specializes in long-term forecasts and focuses a lot on storms like these. He is a bit wonky, but he's a worthy follow if you like following severe weather. And he's a Michigan Grad and mitten ex-pat that I worked with at Meijer for a year before he did his grad work at FSU, so he will occasionally look at Michigan's weather.

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20143524

Eberwhite82

September 30th, 2015 at 12:55 PM ^

I've avoided jumping on this board, because I fear it will take over my life. (I used to live on bigsoccer.com, had to leave for this reason.)

Anyways, Capital Weather Gang is VERY good, and encourage folks to use it to track this storm. The bottom line, and it can't be stressed enough, the models are still all over the place and this storm is incredibly difficult to track.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/09/30…

Joined: 09/30/2009

MGoPoints: 1579

M-Dog

September 30th, 2015 at 9:59 AM ^

I am one of them.

I would assume that as the game goes on, there will be lots of empty seats in better sections.  Does anybody know how restrictive they are at Byrd stadium about moving to other sections once the game starts, especially at / after halftime?

I am going to be pissed if I'm forced to sit on the moon in the wind and rain while there are a ton of empty seats in more sane locations.

 

Joined: 07/06/2008

MGoPoints: 257385

mgoblue_0484

September 30th, 2015 at 9:02 AM ^

Covered seating. By the looks of it, Section 203, row N, is covered. I've never been to Byrd Stadium, so if anyone can confirm that it's covered, I'd appreciate it.

If it's not, it might be a short stay, as the wife and kids might not be as tolerable to the rain.

Joined: 07/29/2015

MGoPoints: 219

ndscott50

September 30th, 2015 at 9:27 AM ^

They should have enough information to decide on a start time move by tomorrow afternoon. A few thoughts:

The current forecast timing indicates it would be later Sunday until the system threatened Maryland. A time switch would be more about preparation then actual storm conditions during the game.

The best conditions for intensification occur during the next 36 to 48 hours. After that the system should begin to slowly weaken. If it rapidly intensifies to a cat 3 or greater in the next day the likelihood that mid Atlantic will go into full preparation mode will increase. Moving the game up to noon will be the best option at that point. If the system remains a weak hurricane the worst case scenario becomes a tropical storm landfall late Sunday or early Monday. The game can likely go on as planned at that point.

The track forecast is still uncertain. The will be a major effort to gather more data today which hopefully will drive more model consensus by tomorrow.

Joined: 10/02/2009

MGoPoints: 5774