"You know how Kyle Flood still has a job? Yeah, all Jourdan."
We are 7-4, What were your expectations?
One of my favorite Disney movies of all time. Hype video anyone? I'm going to go watch some highlights with this running in the background to see if it works.
EDIT: Not very well. Scratch that idea.
I agree that the record is what I was expecting this year and that anything more than 7 wins would have been a MASSIVE improvement. I also agree that the offense and denard is becoming a machine.
But for every step forward this team has taken offensively, they are taking two steps back defensively. People aren't complaining because of the loss. They are complaining because of the WAY we are losing. Giving up 48 points when a team is running the ball for 7 yards a carry and getting completely manhandled is something new for most people on this forum. Having to onside kick after TDs in the THIRD QUARTER because our D is just that bad is something a Michigan team has never had to do.
It is good that you are being optimistic; I too, see positives thus far. But if you don't see the glaring SUCK that is the Michigan defense, you are in complete denial, and I am jealous of you if that is the case.
The worse, our recruit on defensive side, particularly on DL and the number of the defensive players are still worrisome. special team coach doesn't know how to coach a kicker. We never put our best kick off returner until this game when gallon goes down. We should put our best player in every position, and hope the next guy can step up if the best player goes down due to injury, just like before when we had Breaston to return the ball for multiple seasons.
I am still supporting RR but he needs to make enough changes on the defense and special team this off season to convince many fans inlucding me, i think.
I put down 7-5 with a bowl berth not in Detroit. I also predicted that Mouton would be a beast. Record pending, bowl berth locked, and the Mouton bit is sadly true at times in a good way and true at times in a bad way. In my own mind, I felt this time to drive me to drink quite excessively at least one Saturday this year. To my surprise, and the joy of my family, this has not happened. So I got that going for me.
To stop seeing these type of posts
I envisioned that many things could have gone wrong over the course of the season, preventing the team from going 8-4 (my personal hope). Following Woolfolk's injury, I thought 7-5 would be great for this team, and that level stayed the same after seeing what the team and its competition was capable of.
Based off of comments I've interpreted from Brandon, there's no doubt in my mind that RR will be back next year. There seem to be too many extenuating circumstances surrounding this team to make it a real "judgment year". Don't worry, I think next year's team will be the real judgment on RR.
Experienced offense coming back with just enough pieces on defense to field an adequate unit. Frankly, if we don't win our division I'll be disappointed.
I think your expectations for next year are overly optimistic. At best, the defense will be mediocre. And the offense should finally be able to compete with teams in the top half of the conference. I think 5-3 or 6-2 in Big Ten play is most likely. Winning the division seems out of reach. Obviously, a lot can happen between now and then to change this prediction.
Pre-season I was expecting a loss on the road to ND but a win at home against MSU. Minus the injuries, I thought the defense would improve through the season as the younger kids got game playing time. I'm most disappointed that this did not occur and the blame falls directly on the coaches. I guess the buck stops at RR and he best do something to correct this!
of 7-5 predictions were based on splitting UCONN and ND. In reality both of those teams have turned out to be terrible. Additionally, I think people were hoping at least one of the 7 wins might come against: Iowa, MSU, PSU, Wisconsin, or OSU. Potentially losing every single one of those really hurts. All in all though, I think we've done well enough that RR keeps his job and that's most important to me.
We're pretty lucky to be 7-4 right now. Let's take it as it is and move forward with positivity.
6-5 would be a much more precarious situation, and while I don't think that my opinion on RR would change with that, an even greater number of people would be hot on him.
Let's look up and thank the stars for allowing Hemingway to catch that fluke tipped up slant in double overtime and say hey that's the play thats going to get us started on getting back to where we want to be and possibly further.
Pre-RR, our losses were always close games while our wins were often convincing. Now our wins are usually close games while our losses are convincing.
I still think this has more to do with depth chart than anything. We're giving up ~6 more points per game on defense (Big Ten games only, 2009-33.25, 2010-39.5) after losing Warren, a finally good Stevie Brown, and Brandon Graham, not to mention Woolfork.
Michigan was a class behind in developing defensive depth, and that's cost us about a touchdown per game. This was expected. I still think we've made some progress on defense as the season has plodded along. Vinopal has been an improvement at safety. Avery has played much better recently. James Rogers has finally figured out a thing or two. Black has made a few plays over the last few games.
Are they great players? No, they're still raw. Do I think they've gotten better? Yes. Hopefully the bowl practice will help improve the guys who have entered the lineup mid year (Vinopal, Demens, etc).
As a unit, they're still looking for a complete game. I'm pessimistic about that game being against OSU. There's too much developed talent on their sideline. I do think by the time the bowl comes, I think they'll be due for a surprising game. Maybe even hold an opponent under 30 points.
Good point - at this point it was hoped that RR had his system in place and now would be getting better. Year 2 was better than year 1. Year 3 on offense was much better than year 2 in large part because Denard Robinson is a superb runner and the offense dropped (didn't completely stopped but better) fewer balls. It was hoped that the defense would be better. It was too much to expect that it would make the same leap like the offense (which went for subpar ranking to a top 5 ranking in most offensive categories), but to see it go backwards is worrisome.
Injuries, transfers, youth etc. all played a role, but it was clearly an inferior defense than in previous years (as born out by the total yards yielded and total points yielded - both new Michigan lows - unfortunately the previous record holders were also RR teams).
We'll have to hope that we get better over the summer - this year, we might as well try to see if anybody who hasn't seen much playing time can contribute.
Before the the first game of the season I was expecting 7-8 wins. I think we are right about where most fans would have expected. If a person has followed the Michigan Football Saga closely, they would understand that there has been too much adversity for this team and coaching staff to overcome in a short time.
Also, anyone who thinks that college freshmen will never get any better at tackling without a coaching change are just trying desperately to support an agenda. We have already seen Courtney Avery become a much better tackler in a matter of weeks. Expereince is huge in college sports, even much more of a factor then in high school sports. Your competition is now the best players from all over, and that adjustment in speed/strength/technique is rough for young players. As a college football player I can speak from experience.
My expectations for next year will be increased. Each year you have to re-evaluate the situation and just saying, "Michigan should always win 10 games" isn't always accurate. People who do not see progress within this team from 2008-2010 have their eyes and minds shut. Go Blue.
See where you are going. The reality is that the people who are uneasy about this current direction are probably that way because we actually got worse against the good teams in our league this season.
One game we were favored (MSU) and we're embarrassed. Two other games we were hovering around a pick em (Wisconsin and Penn State) and got embarrrased. Throw in another blow out against 4 loss Iowa and we are talking about 4 games that were over at half time. Not only that, four games where this offense did it's best work when the game was out of reach.
Take the 7-4 as a whole, without looking too closely at how it was arrived at and you can't argue progress. Just don't open the closet and look inside. That's where reasonable minds can differ.
Can't argue with you that the record shows improvement, but the next step is a biggie and there are no signs from this season that it will be taken. People who are not just buying this team's 7-4 as evidence of future dominance, aren't obligated to as proof of loyalty.
Well we were favored by about the same margin against Penn State, so if you balance it out his point stands.
I stopped reading when you said "another blow out against 4 loss Iowa." Courtney Avery makes a tackle and we are driving for the win. We played terrible and still gave ourselves a chance to win with minutes left in the game. That was not a blowout loss.
You are reinventing history. Michigan never had the ball with a chance to tie or take the lead against Iowa. Look at the chart
Also, they were down three scores with 16 minutes left. That qualifies as a blowout loss.
They didn't have the ball with a chance to tie, but they were also down 7 with 8 minutes to go. That's not a blowout.
I would liken it to an NBA game where one team is down by 30 to start the fourth quarter. And they go on a 25-5 run to close the gap to 10. And you think just maybe the team trying to comeback can get 3 stops and hit a few three-pointers and pull it out. But they never do. It's a blowout that doesn't feel like one.
Anyone who was at the game would tell you that it was not a blow out. Despite playing poorly in the 1st half, in the 4th quarter we were one stop away from evening up the score. Regardless, what point does your proposed 10 point "blowout" even prove? Until this team gives up on RR, I won't give up on RR. And from what I saw against Penn State, Iowa, and yesterday against Wisconsin, this team has a lot of fight, they are all in, and they are never giving up. Even if, according to your logic, it means making blowouts into "blowouts that dont feel like one" I see this team moving in the right direction and improving a lot before next season.
3rd and 8 at MICH 40 - Ricky Stanzi pass complete to Adam Robinson for 26 yards to the Mich 14 for a 1st down.
Avery had a chance to get out defense off the field and the ball back with a chance to tie. It was a 7 point game at that point, and there were less than 5 min left in the 4th quarter. This does not qualify as a blowout loss.
are right,but if our kicker just kicks the ball in bounds maybe we have a chance to tie the game.The same guy who can't make a 30 yard FG.We need a new kicker.
Wow, you really must have not paid attention this season. Or does only the first half of Michigan football count for you? Iowa and Penn State were both 1 possesion games in the forth quarter. One play goes our way and we have a good shot at winning those games. How is that a blow out? Also we outgained Iowa by over a hundred yards. Last year we were getting destroyed in yard totals during big ten games. Almost every game now is either close in that department or has our football team with an advantage. Only two teams (Mich St and Wisco) beats us in yardage by a significant amount. If you are going to have an opinion, then get your facts straight.
Also last year it was a struggle for this team to beat bad teams, that has changed. Our wolverines have gone from terrible in 08, to bad in 09, to decent in 10, and hopefully this means we will good/great next year.
Dear Mr. "Fuck You" (your words).
You write, while lecturing a poster about getting "facts right": "Last year it was a struggle for this team to beat bad teams, that has changed."
This year we went down to the final few minutes against the three worst teams on our schedule: Indiana, Purdue, and UMass. Bad teams, all.
Your statement is demonstrably, indisputably false. So maybe you should stop berating others about accuracy.
Exactly where I think we'll be. 8-5 with a bowl victory.
Do i win something?
I expected 8-4 with a victory over either Iowa or Penn St. I though our offense would be good under Denard, but not as good as it has been. I thought our defense would be bad, but better than it has turned out to be. With those exceptions, this season has more or less played out like I had assumed. I'd love a victory next Saturday, but I won't be heartbroken if we lose. This team is young and getting better. There's a reason why patience is a virtue.
Yes, but there is something to be said for making a prediction, having all hell break lose on defense (injuries, transfers, position changes) and still living up to the prediction. The Woolfolk injury caused most to abandon their predictions, yet we still lived up to them. Something has to be said for that.
I knew 7-5 was a likely outcome, but I wanted to think the team could hang with the best in the conference and that some of the losses could actually be against inferior opponents. My maize and blue glasses were making me think 8-4.
But I didn't quite realize that the secondary would be so damn young/made up of converted WRs. Add on an injured Martin and Campbell not having any impact, and I would have probably predicted 6-6 going in. Wisconsin is such a senior heavy team, Michigan really shouldn't have had a chance against them.
I had auto-losses to Iowa, PSU, and Wiscy, with OSU or a bowl being the other loss. My logic was that three losses would have gotten a tougher bowl opponent, where four would have gotten an easier one. Basically, I had them improving just enough to be better than the Illinois/Purdue/MSU level and "going chalk" all year, except in the OSU game. That is why I'm not as upset as a lot of people are over yesterday' result; the only thing that has kept my prediction from being right on schedule is MSU picking this year to be as good as their instate media hype.
Then, of course, there is the defense. Obviously, nobody except maybe Brian and a few of the coaches here expected them to be this bad, but nobody really expected them to be in their current personnel configuration, either. I will agree with RR's "perfect storm" reasoning for now. I may be "too optimistic," but I still think there is a chance for Michigan to pull out an upset for the ages this Saturday.
As far as that oft-maligned 3-3-5 goes, Wiscy was the worst possible matchup against it. That is why I posted last week that Wiscy scared me more than OSU. They were able to have their way and shove Michigan up and down the field. I don't think OSU will be able to do that. And if they can't, Michigan has a chance of winning.
It doesn't look like 9-4 is goiong to happen, but I would be very happy with 8-5 at this point.
I thought we'd win between 7 and 9 games. I remember back when Brian used to do previews for all of the Big Ten teams (he had a classic meme about MSU that played off little red riding hood tasting the porridge that belonged to the three bears) and he typically had a best case, midline, and worst case scenario for each team.
When we beat Notre Dame I really felt we got lucky and that bumped us up to 8 wins since we beat a team we probably shouldn't have beaten. But then we lost to a Penn State team we probably should have beaten (particularly if Bolden was still their QB) so in retrospect that erased the +1 we got for beating the Irish.
If you told me before the season we'd be competing with Indiana for worst defense in the conference I probably would have dropped by predicted range at least to 6-8 wins. So long story short I really felt like entering Big Ten play we would go 8-4. Right now 7-5 seems like the most likely outcome so I was off but not by much. Get the defense fixed and we have the ability to start putting up double digit win totals as soon as next season.
and over a 100 points you go! Welcome to the voting club.
Ha ha, thanks! I am pretty sure I'll become a more frequent commenter since MGoBlog is by far the best website for Michigan football content.
I don't have exact quotes handy, but RR was warning us about the defense before the season started, so based on that, my expectations were tempered...
I thought 8-4 or 7-5, but that was when I figured MSU wasn't Iowa circa 2009 and winning games they definitely should have lost. The defense has definitely hurt this team, and even a mediocre unit (yeah 2011!) would have probably meant 9-10 wins. But at the beginning of the season, I said a winning record and a bowl game was all I wanted, so I am content. I do wish this team showed up better against the elite teams in the B10, but outside of Wiscy and PSU (though that was a perfect storm of suck) I don't feel like team didn't show up or got blown out of a game. MSU and Iowa were much closer and I definitely felt like the team left points on the field, and at some point you have to expect the bad luck against them to change. PSU feels like a fluke of sorts, just a horrible game by everyone involved. OSU and Wiscy are still the cream of the B10, but I expect Wiscy to tumble next year and for OSU to regress a bit as Tressel's style of play becomes even more antiquated. Nebraska will be scary next year, but they have some holes and you don't know how they'll handle the transition.
So the long and short of it is that I'm fine with 7-8 wins this year, but I expect 9-10 next year provided massive injuries don't pop up.
only win we didnt get was Penn St.
Te reat thing about all these freshman is they become sophmores and we get all this extra practice time preping for bowl, which we have not had the last 3 yrs.
I said 7-5, but I never thought the offense would be this good this year! But on the other hand I didn't think the defense would be this bad. But we still have a chance to do better than my predictions. I sure hope the players are as jacked for this last game as me cuz after michigan losing and msu getting lucky and then osu coming back and getting away with obvious pi, i wanted to kill someone
Preseason, we heard that the offense would score points and we would win games if the defense could stop anyone. Anyone who was a realist knew that our defense would generally be the deciding factor. With this offense, wins vs. MSU, Iowa and PSU were realistic before our secondary imploded with injuries and attrition. After Woolfolk went down and Campbell fizzled as Martin's backup, for me, all bets were off. I hated to think that 7-5 was the best we should expect, but that's a definite possibility at this point. (For the love of all that is holy, please can we make it 8-4?? Please?)
Everyone's expectations rose exponentially at 5-0, 500+ yards of offense every game, Denard for He16man, etc. And to have those expectations dashed due to turnovers, diaper-wearing safeties and converted WRs is very frustrating and disheartening. But we know what this offense can do, putting up 67 pts on a highly ranked D and 65 against a crappy D. If our D is healthy for the bowl game (not looking at you, T-Woolf), we have every reason to expect an impressive showing.
We're close to where I expected record-wise. Coming in I assumed a split against ND and PSU, plus the six other wins we've accumulated so far. I thought we might be able to win one of three between Iowa, Wisconsin and OSU (which still could happen) but that it wasn't a sure thing. The only wrong prediction so far is that I expected us to rollover MSU and obviously that didn't happen as it was supposed to. So we'll end up at either 7-5 or 8-4 compared to the 8-4 or 9-3 that I expected (depending on next weekend).
Before the season began, I looked at the schedule and felt 8-4, or even 9-3, would be attainable. Really felt strongly that we would beat Sparty at home this year. Watched the first qtr of that game again on dvr the other night, and wow did we blow some great chances to score early.... If we end up 7-5, and win the bowl game, I would not be upset. This week's game is obviously going to be extremely challenging, but I truly feel that our players will rise to that challenge. I mean, we are DUE to beat those fools who reside in the World's Largest Toilet Bowl!! GO BLUE!!
P.S: I would like to hear Temptation played AT LEAST 4-5 times per half when OSU sends out their shitty punter, throw in 2-3 times for IRON MAN after a Roh/Martin, or anyone on the D sacking Pryor, and THE MICHIGAN VICTORS played at least 7-8 times after Meeechigan TD's!!!
I'm consternated by the D, but think he's around next year.
We're right on my expectations, or even slightly exceeding it. Before Troy Woolfolk's knee was injured, I thought that we would have 8 or 9 regular-season wins. Afterwards, I thought we'd go anywhere from 5-7 again to 7-5.
Yeah, I was expecting 7-5. I figured that we'd start 5-0, saw OSU, Iowa and Wisc as losses and figured that we'd win at least two out of PSU, Purdue and Illinois.
The record is one thing; the way we've achieved it is another. We're 4-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer, while we have four losses by double-digit margins. That's worrisome. That makes us look like an average team that is fortunate to have seven wins. How do we go from this to contending for the Big Ten championship next year? Under normal circumstances, a year like 2011 (when we play most of our tough games at home and return 19 starters) would make us a fashionable pick to win the league. I have a bad feeling that, once again, we're going to dial down the expectations and postpone our expected return to the elite once more.
Next year, is everyone going to predict 8-4 or 9-3 and use it to justify when we don't win 10 games? And then say, well, in 2012 (with an IMPOSSIBLE schedule) we'll be really good. And then pre-12, 10-2...but we can't do that, the schedule is too tough....and 2013...well, new QB....I mean, where does it end?
There seemed to be a wide consensus that the record would be as it currently is. But many or most people (myself included) expected that we would have fared better against quality teams. As Brian basically predicted: we'll beat one or two teams we shouldn't and also lose to one or two we shouldn't.
Instead, we mucked out wins against meh teams, which is good. But the only time we closed the gap against quality teams was after they'd taken three-touchdown leads, then relaxed. (I love that some posters maintain that the losses were "closer than they seemed." They were less close than they seemed; Iowa, MSU, PSU, and Wisconsin took their feet off the gas, as teams do when leading big.) We'd kept things closer the season prior. So the record hews to expectations. And yet it doesn't.
a stated our program would be undergoing a complete philosophical football overhaul of which I truly believe will put us back in the annual Big-10 Championship hunt. Additionally I have always said that our rivals better take advantage of beating us the next 2-3 years because when year 4 and 5 roll around we will be an annual force at the National level. The offense is here, the defense is coming, we are still on track IMO.
All in for RR
Of course, this raises the question: given that we were in the Big Ten championship hunt on a near-annual basis for 40 years, why was it necessary to undergo a complete philosophical overhaul?
IMO, RR's big mistake was to come in here and to act like he was taking over for a fired coach. When you take over for a guy that's fired, you generally want to clean house and start afresh. But that's not what happened here. RR was replacing a very successful coach, whose program may have needed some tweaking, but still had basically a solid foundation. He probably should have retained more of Carr's assistants, and worked to accommodate more of Carr's players instead of adopting a my-way-or-the-highway approach that led to massive attrition. He rolled the dice with the approach he took, and we can only hope that there will be a long-term payoff that makes the last three seasons worth it.