The Michigan women's hoops squad hosts Iowa at 1:30 this afternoon in a game being broadcast on the BTN. It's Senior Day, with Kendra Seto and Val Driscoll being the two honorees.
For the Wolverines, this is an important game for both BTT seeding and their NCAA hopes. Michigan has an outside shot at the #4 seed and a first-round BTT bye but will more likely end up 5, 6, or 7. With a win against Iowa, they'll most likely be the 5 or 6 seed and will hold the tiebreaker vs. Iowa as this is the only game between the two teams. U-M's Big Ten record is 8-6, while Iowa sits at 8-5.
In terms of the NCAA tourney, I still think getting to the 20-win mark is crucial. Currently 17-10, the most likely path to 20 is a Michigan win today and two wins in the BTT. (The final regular-season game, at Penn State, will be a tough one as PSU will likely be playing for an outright Big Ten title.)
One reason for optimism about a bid if the team can somehow get to 20 wins is the latest S-Factor simulation of the S-curve. Following the win over Indiana (which improved Michigan's road record to a remarkable 9-1), the Wolverines jumped from #61 to #46. Beating Iowa would certainly push them even higher and at a minimum put them squarely on the bubble.
Massey puts Michigan's win probability at 40%.