Way too late 2015 prediction thread
Somewhere during the summer, we are deluged with "Way Too Early" prediction threads. It's fun to go back and read them, to gauge how objective we are in our fandom. This year, we were pretty close to expectations, maybe even slightly pessimistic. Almost every year before, the predictions are 2-3 games better than the results.
Here, for your viewing pleasure, are all the 2015 prediction threads I could find.
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/final-prediction-thread-2015
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/season-prediction-thread
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/michigan-your-honest-thoughtspredictions-2015-schedule
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/one-bold-prediction-2015
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/how-does-rudock-change-your-2015-predictions
And... here's our fearless leader projecting that we have a slightly better than average chance to beat Oregon State, Maryland, and Rutgers. I guess nobody is perfect.
http://mgoblog.com/content/preview-2015-heuristics-and-stupid-prediction
Ty Isaac will put up the best running stats of any Michigan running back in the past 7 years. - swan flu
I dont like it but Oregon State is a toss up, I think we start the year rough. I'm pessimistic though and always go in expecting this. I also say no bowl game or 6-6 with one. - Sllepy81
We have a top 3 defense in the country - Mski2812
Jourdan Lewis will lead the COUNTRY in interceptions. - Some Dude - [ed.] Right idea, wrong stat.
10-1 heading into The Game with the Buckeyes for the Big Ten Championship and possible birth in the playoffs. -swamyblue - [Ed.] DAMMIT SWAMY!!! The punt was your fault. You jinxed us baaad...
FWIW - The Knowledge has us at 10-2. So I think we have pretty much won the OSU game already...
November 23rd, 2015 at 8:58 AM ^
Drake Harris would lead us in receiving yards. lol
November 23rd, 2015 at 8:59 AM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:00 AM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:00 AM ^
And it depended on whether we could win the BYU game I was so worried about. Lol.
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:02 AM ^
Thought maybe some folks would like this for their wallpaper. It is a widescreen photo, so it doesn't show well here, but right click and then click "copy image address" (or copy image location for Windows computers).
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:01 AM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:07 AM ^
Was that his screen name during the week the expectations threads were posted?
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:09 AM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:13 AM ^
I didn't even get to see RDT out himself, man.
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:15 AM ^
Brian is a punk ass and all the moderators wear skirts. They're too scared to do nothin'...
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:34 AM ^
they are more skerred than scared. Just sayin.
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:02 AM ^
Interesting looking back on how Brian felt about position switchers, seems most of them actually worked out pretty well, especially the 2 listed as high concern. Any word on why Poggi disapeared after he was seeming to be improving a few weeks ago?
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:06 AM ^
10-2 Regular Season Losses to BYU and PSU. And to Wisconsin in the B1G Championship game. New Year's Day bowl win. Starting in 2016 Michigan never loses another game. Ever.
Prediction made on 9/2.
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:07 AM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:22 AM ^
And no one thought Indiana was a game that would hinge on 1 play. Thats the game.
UM has had 3 games that could swing its record one way or the other. (MN, MSU, IND)
If all 3 went against us the team is 8-3 going into the game. Not far off from what most assume. I mean if the MN pass was 1/2 yd farther that was a loss - that was sort of "puck luck". IND any 1 play could have made that a loss. MSU obv should have been a win, etc.
As for BYU UM did not face the pass spread offense we all expected with 1 of the most dynamic players in CFB. UM had a long history of letting spread QBs coming into UM and single handidly win the game. BYU had gone into UCLA the prior game (a team who is 7-3 and just went into Utah and won) and almost won. Even without Taysom Hill.
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:47 AM ^
You mean 7-4 right? Utah is a loss and not on your list of close games.
November 23rd, 2015 at 12:11 PM ^
The closest we came to losing to Indiana was a 4th down goalline play. At best it was a coin flip.
So really the expectation for those 3 results is approximately 1.5 wins. We landed just barely on the lucky side at 2-1, obviously could easily have been 1-2, but still it feels like 9-2 is a reasonable result from all of the close calls (unlike a certain MSU team we keep talking about that's had rainbows coming out of their asses all year long).
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:32 AM ^
The way you think about the future of Michigan Football, that is. +1 to you, sir.
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:07 AM ^
I had 8-4 and said we would lose to Utah, OSU, MSU and slip somewhere else while scaring the daylights out of one of the Big 2. I was pretty close but have to admit we look way better than I thought we would. This year has been pretty enjoyable. We are the type of football team that is very easy to root for.
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:12 AM ^
I was on the pessimistic side. I predicted 7-5, with losses to Utah, MSU, Minnesota, PSU, OSU.
Definitely happy to be proven wrong! If you told me before the season we'd have 9 wins I'd have been ecstatic. If you told me we'd have 10 I'd have been through the roof.
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:17 AM ^
After the season, we need a "Lloyd Christmas Postdiction Thread."
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:17 AM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:23 AM ^
with Losses to Utah MSU OSU and at Minn....and that to me was a Great Year for Harbaugh...Glad I was wrong....WIN THE GAME!
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:24 AM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:34 AM ^
I think the offense is about what most of us thought. Some variance of course - Jake until 3 weeks ago was below what we thought (last 3 games above what we thought) as we expected a game manager who could finally exploit teams in the intermediate / long area of the field who would barely turn the ball over. The run game is below what most thought as most had Isaac being "very good" and pushing Smith with Drake reprising his OSU type role which he really never has. That position has been bottom 3 in Big 10 which is the only "below expectation by large position" position group on the team. Wrs were an open question after Darboh - Chesson has come on late but no young guy has really had an impact as many expected (lots of Harris hype coming out of camp). Most of us thought Butt would be very good in this offense and he has been. OL sort of has been the OL we thought it would be although the run blocking is not what we thought it would be.
All in all the offense generally is what we expected with some variance.
The defense is simply better than almost anyone thought. You lost Clark and ryan and Countess. Most thought Clark and rjs were nothingburgers - instead both have become Josh Furman 2.0 in terms of reclamation projects and in terms of position switches. Our savior Wayne Lyons did not show up and Hill with a lot of spring hype from Marcus ray would be the only 2 players aside from Bolden who did not take massive jumps. We did not expect Glasgow to have the order of Kovacs bestowed upon him - we thought he'd be quite good but not "this". I did have Lewis as a star as I thought teams threw away from him late last year but he has been even better than I thought and most were so infatuated with Peppers they forgot we had a hell of a corner out there.
But as a unit we have a top 5 defense... and defense wins championships/games. In the end the D saved our buns vs MN and IND and found a way.
Also let me give a shout out to Kenny Allen. Going into the year our presumed freshman phenom was causing us all worry. Instead we hit the jackpot with that guy and made a lot of worries go away.
Anyhow it is remarkable the turnaround in year 1. I was in the 7-8 win camp with a "huge jump in year 2 as most elite coaches do". Again we had some "puck luck" but all teams do - look at friggin MSU which is 5-1 in games decided on the last drive or at 0:00.
We basically closed the gap on MSU and OSU in 1 year and without a viable running game. It's an amazing coaching job - congrats to the entire staff (not just Harbaugh)
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:49 AM ^
I can't believe the pessimism from some of you guys. Even I predicted 9-3 with loses to Utah, MSU and OSU.
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:58 AM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:49 AM ^
Knows all.
...
yes
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:50 AM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 9:52 AM ^
I just said 8 along with everyone else to keep the abuse down amongst my golf posse which is populated with too much Sparty and OSU. Yet, I was always convinced that static analyses of talent were non-predictive with a coaching upgrade. I just wasn't sure how fast it would change.
But now I am out of the closet and expect double digit win seasons for as far as the eye can see.
November 23rd, 2015 at 10:10 AM ^
Had us at 9-3, but losing in a bowl and 9-4. I think we win at least one more and maybe two. Can I change my prediction now?
November 23rd, 2015 at 10:58 AM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 11:03 AM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 11:25 AM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 11:33 AM ^
I love M-dog's comment to a guy who went through and analyzed every game and came up with a 7-5 record.
"Nice, very thorough analysis - and I hate you"