Washington Post "Fancy Stats" column calls Michigan a 2016 CFP "Sleeper"

Submitted by Moonlight Graham on

Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2015/12/09/the-seven-clear-cut-contenders-for-the-2016-college-football-playoff-right-now/

The title mentions "7 clear cut contenders," so I scrolled down and didn't see us listed ... but lo and behold keep scrolling and UM is "my sleeper." 

"All that we have learned from his head coaching career though suggests Jim Harbaugh is a golden goose ... This is going to be a really nice team in a very short period of time. The only question is how soon."

I like it! I'll take it!

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Gofor2

December 13th, 2015 at 12:08 PM ^

Please stop with the wild fantasies about UM football becoming relevant. Everyone knows the road to a championship runs threw C'Bus, and that the team in C'Bus will continue to squash UM like a bug. 42-13 and it was really much worse than the score shows. So please stop with the lying to yourself all year only to get bitch slapped every single year.

Joined: 12/13/2014

MGoPoints: 549

alum96

December 12th, 2015 at 10:12 PM ^

8 home games, leave the state only once til late Oct, the "oldest" OL/DLs in the Big 10 and prob the most talented DL (good lines help you compensate for a lot, see MSU this year), with 2 of the best DBs in the nation, with huge personnel losses at MSU and OSU we will be a sleeper pick in many publications to win the Big 10.  Elite coaches usually have huge 2nd seasons as well.

Of course we still have the small matter of finding a QB, LBs and a run game but from the outside no one will look close at the LBs, assume QB is developed due to #Harbaugh, and just assume we can run against good teams because of harbaugh history at Stanford.

We should be favored in 9 games next year, with @Iowa, @MSU, @OSU the deciding factors between a 9 win season and 11+. 

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82424

alum96

December 12th, 2015 at 10:34 PM ^

We will hahve a ton of seniors on both sides this time around:

  • 3/5 OL
  • both wr
  • Maybe the rb
  • TE

So that's 7 of 11 on offense if none of the 3 senior linemen lose their jobs.

On defense

  • potentially 4/4 DL (Charlton Henry Glasgow Wormley)
  • 1 LB (not sure if McCray gets a redshirt year to be a rs jr next year - if not he is a sr I think)
  • potentially 4 of 5 DBs if we play a 4-2-5 (Clark [or Strib], Lewis, Thomas, Hill)

That would be 9 of 11 seniors (!!!) on D with Peppers being 1 of the underclassmen.

Thats 16 of 22 potential seniors... and Peppers / Cole as 2 of the 6 underclassmen.

This is the offset of having those damn young teams in 2012-2013.

We need to win big in 2016, 2017 is a very very young team.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82424

A Fan In Fargo

December 12th, 2015 at 10:55 PM ^

am very sure I've never dreamt about a Michigan game until two nights ago. Actually I think it was lastnight. It is very weird to me though because I've watched for about 25 years. Anyhow, I was talking to Jabrill or Jehu, some star player at the Shoe and they had just won. There were UM fans huddled in one big celebration outside the stadium. Hahaha ... It was a good feeling.

Joined: 02/16/2014

MGoPoints: -9997722

Tater

December 13th, 2015 at 7:25 AM ^

Not only did Michigan used to win in EL and Columbus, MSU and OSU have been winning in Ann Arbor pretty regularly since Michigan decided to give both an eight year "rivalry vacation."  

If Michigan is the better team, they are going to win in EL and Columbus.  After what Harbaugh did with this team this year, I am certainly not counting Michigan out, especially 10-11 months before the games are actually played.

Joined: 08/13/2008

MGoPoints: 30584

alum96

December 12th, 2015 at 10:26 PM ^

Honestly its not *THAT* bad.  First we only have 4 away games - 1 the joke that is Scarlet Knights.  Most P5 teams have 5 ...Big 10 is going to 9 conf games so it must alternate go forward year to year on having 5 home games in conf vs 4.

And if you want to play MSU or OSU vs recent vintages this will be the youngest MSU team since 2012 ...and no Cook.  And the a very young OSU team.  MSU loses 3 1st rounders if Conklin goes, OSU is losing probably 4.  OSU loses Heisman candidate rb, 1st round LT, best wr, and about half the defense.  MSU loses 3/4 of an elite DL.  And 3/5 of a very good OL if Conklin goes plus Burbridge Kings and Cook; that's this years passing attack. 

I still expect both teams to be good, esp OSU by the time we play them as all that elite talent will have a full season to develop (dont look at their last 3 recruiting classes - its scary).  But if you want to go on the road to those 2 locations with a veteran team 2016 is the year to take advantage.

Iowa I have to do some research on who they lost - a year ago at this time people would laugh at you if you called it a rough game.  I am not going to assume they are super tough next year yet but if they bring the bulk of this years team back (i.e. no massive attrition) it will be a tough team.  They looked a lot like UM this year in fact.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82424

Wolfman

December 12th, 2015 at 10:54 PM ^

granted, of course, we get a quick start. Voters love JH and it's not because he's a ton of laughs to hang with. It's because starting with game 1 the players play well and continue to improve as a unit as the season wears on. He is a force. I have never seen O'Korn play but have to believe if he's our starter he is going to be measurably better than he was at A&M simply because JH is one of the best QB whisperers in the business. There is no doubt in my mind that Ferentz had any idea he had two qbs on last season's roster that would be among the most efficient qbs in the BIG this season. Give us just a hint of a viable RB and we will be sooooooo much improved on that side of the ball, JH might be able to score the way he wants. Although, he is able to manufacture points in some of the most clever alignment and blocking schemes I have seen in quite some time.

Homer to the max, even after Brady's lucky '11 did I feel we were anywhere near being "back." I have the exact opposite feeling now and I know football pretty damn well.

Joined: 07/23/2008

MGoPoints: 8259

alum96

December 12th, 2015 at 10:40 PM ^

Yep depends who though.  OSU only lost 1 game this yr but wrong game.

Oklahoma looks stacked beyond belief on offense next year and OSU goes there early so I expect OSU to have that as a loss.  So it could be 11-0 UM v 10-1 OSU in Columbus if the 2 teams take care of business the rest of the way.  If UM loses that they coud get frozen out just like OSU did this year.  '

Again we are getting ahead of ourselves... our 3 non conf games are also laughable next year so in case of any "close calls" with other 1 loss teams we might get dinged.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82424

Muttley

December 13th, 2015 at 1:27 AM ^

 

 

Hawaii  3-10 of the Mountain West
including a win over Colorado
http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/62/hawaii-rainbow-warriors

UCF 0-12 of the American Athletic
http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/2116/ucf-knights

Colorado 4-9 of the Power Five PAC 12
http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/38/colorado-buffaloes

 

Surely, those three didn't look this bad in aggregate when we scheduled them.  Heck, UCF beat Baylor in the BCS Fiesta Bowl just two seasons ago.  What a nose dive.

 

Joined: 07/07/2009

MGoPoints: -73245

ghost

December 13th, 2015 at 7:42 AM ^

Colorado returns all but I think 5 starters. They lost one possession games to USC, UCLA, and Stanford. They should be improved and possibly a bowl team.  UCF was also insanely young last year. Neither will be great, but UCF especially won't be anywhere near as bad as they were this year.

Joined: 09/02/2011

MGoPoints: 4140

San Diego Mick

December 12th, 2015 at 10:12 PM ^

Oh please, we have a loaded team coming back with a more athletic, strong armed QB in O'Korn with a year in the system and Harbaugh and staff with an additional year of implementing their influence.

Look what we did this season, some were saying 6-6 or 7-5 at best and they were very wrong, I think we're in the top ten all season in 2016 with a good chance to do some special things.

Joined: 05/11/2011

MGoPoints: 50637

Gulogulo37

December 13th, 2015 at 12:14 AM ^

I'm optimistic about what Harbaugh can do with the QBs, but O'Korn hardly makes us less of a sleeper.

It is pretty dumb calling it a sleeper pick because it's mostly based off of disregarding our recent failures, which is pretty obviously the right thing to do anyway because HARBAUGH.

Also, no offense to James Ross, but he's definitely not one of the 2 most important players we're losing this year.

Joined: 03/16/2010

MGoPoints: 28306

Mac Attack

December 12th, 2015 at 10:12 PM ^

Positive things about Michigan, even if the writer may not have all the accurate information. He has Jake Rudock and James Ross as possibly leaving. Wait a minute, those two guys are done this year and I would say there are a few juniors on the roster that have had more attention to their play than James Ross. I'll take the good vibes though any day.

Joined: 07/09/2014

MGoPoints: 1704

Rhino77

December 12th, 2015 at 10:13 PM ^

This article leads with "Cardale Jones and Co. are on the shortlist of title contenders for 2016. "

Isn't Jones pretty much gone? Also even if he did stay I doubt it would be him leading the barrage.



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