That is the largest spread (in favor of the visitor)for a home Michigan game I have ever seen. Usually the wiseguys know what they are talking about; I hope they don;t this time.
Remember that lines aren't set to predict the winner, they're set to bring even betting to both sides. Lines are set more to what betters are feeling than the real outcome. Having said that, -12 doesn't seem unreasonable for how we've played the past few weeks.
Has anyone ever conducted an analysis between the vegas line and the actual outcome?
I get your point about lines being "set more to what betters are feeling than the real outcome," but from my limited experience (with NFL lines), those lines are usually pretty good at predicting the winner.
I'll take the Buckeyes.
Trying to jinx them, see?
Or trying to make a few bucks.
Just to piss you off, they'll win by ten. Man, you'd really REALLY hate the Buckeyes then!!
Ooh, man, you know what? That would so totally be teh suck, I mean dong punched by the buckeyes so many times takes its freaking toll.
Or I'm not gonna bet and clean up in my bowl pool again :)
With how good the OSU defense is this year and how bad Michigan's is I think I would take OSU and the points.
Wouldn't you want to see the O/U before taking the points?
and give the points. I would do this too. Michigan is 0-4 ATS since the Iowa cover and it really hasn't been close.
I bet the line moves closer to 14 by kickoff.
I would put it myself at OSU-17.
Anyone happen to know what the spread was that year?
Without using teh google, I'd hazard a guess that it was -12 for the Buckeyes.
I was expecting a 20 point spread or so. I imagine it will go up by the time it locks in.
Yeah I think it will be bigger by kickoff. I would take OSU minus 12 after the way the D has performed the past couple weeks.
If Iowa was a 17 point dawg to OSU last week, how can Michigan "only" be a 12 point dawg?
also Iowa was debuting a new qb.
was thinking this would be around 16 or 17, but hey, Vegas knows better than me. Might have to find me a bookie and drop half a stack on a straight up Michigan victory! Now that'd be a nice payout and a great day
I'm putting half my money on UM straight up and the other half on the line. If Michigan loses by 13 or more... who cares, I'm pissed with no money. If they lose and cover, who cares, I'm just pissed. But if they win!!!!!
It's the last game of the year... a horrible year... a horrible two years... the Football Gambling Gods owe us. Book it!
Side Note: This strategy failed horribly for Penn St. and Wisconsin. Damn Football Gambling Gods.
Side Side Note: I had the Patriots to win straight up last night.
Too bad you had Patriots straight up bro. I like your strategy for this week. With all the bad luck you have had lately, you are do. But then again, some people have a bad gambling cloud around them.. Would you mind putting all your money on OSU to jinx them?
Looking at all of the top 25s' early lines, I'm taking a lot of chalk. Michigan is one of the few games that I thought was a really solid starting line.
I read this thread a few minutes ago, and placed a bet for the buckeyes -12. Definitely will be rooting for Michigan in the game, and won't be mad if I end up losing the money, but a line under two touchdowns against this defense is just too hard to pass up.
Since 1995 (the oldest numbers I could find), Michigan has been a home underdog exactly 9 times (Saturday will be #10). We are 5-4 in those games. Here are the outcomes:
11/25/95 - vs. OSU (-9.0) - W 31-23
09/27/08 - vs. WIS (-4.5) - W 27-25
11/17/07 - vs. OSU (-4.0) - L 3-14
10/24/09 - vs. PSU (-4.0) - L 10-35
11/19/05 - vs. OSU (-3.0) - L 21-25
10/25/08 - vs. MSU (-3.0) - L 21-35
09/12/09 - vs. N D (-3.0) - W 38-34
11/07/98 - vs. PSU (-2.5) - W 27-0
09/22/07 - vs. PSU (-2.5) - W 14-9
FWIW, we were 17 point (!) underdogs at OSU in 1996 and won (probably the team's biggest upset since at least the 1969 OSU game). That was the end of Carr's second season, when some alumni were starting to grumble...
Also interesting: the worst loss was 10/23/99 to 25.0 point (!) underdog Illinois at home. There was no line on the App State game, but I believe the 99 Illinois game would have been worse. Yikes.
Wow. We're only underdogs by 12? I couldn't believe that we were favored against Purdue and that we were only underdogs to Wisky by 9 or 10. If I didn't hate betting against my own team, I would have put a huge bet down on those games and I would for this game too. Easiest money ever.