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USC in better shape to survive sanctions than '95 Miami and '02 Alabama ?

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June 23rd, 2010 at 3:34 PM
#1
markusr2007
markusr2007's picture
Joined: 10/21/2008
MGoPoints: 15664
USC in better shape to survive sanctions than '95 Miami and '02 Alabama ?

This was an interesting overview of USC's scholarship situation given the loss of 10 scholarship recruits over each of the next 4 years.

I think the numbers are optimistic (i.e. wishful thinking) because they are assuming virtually no player attrition during this period. 

"Assuming the scholarship penalties remain the same, the projected totals for USC are as follows:

2011: 75 scholarship players.

2012: 69 scholarship players.

2013: 72 scholarship players."

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June 23rd, 2010 at 3:42 PM
#2
brandanomano
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Joined: 09/05/2009
MGoPoints: 5086
Well

They have Lane Kiffin as their coach, so probably not.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 4:46 PM
(Reply to #2) #3
WichitanWolverine
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Joined: 09/30/2009
MGoPoints: 16841
Are you serious?  The dude is

Are you serious?  The dude is poised to turn USC into the Tennessee of the west!

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June 23rd, 2010 at 3:55 PM
#4
MCalibur
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Joined: 07/16/2009
MGoPoints: 2670
I'm not buying it

Was the penalty on the 85 overall limit or the 25 per year (kind of) limit?

Regardless, they're losing a whole recruiting class over the next 3 years. If the oversigning loophole is left open they'll be down 2 recruiting classes relative to Alabama and friends.

I've also seen studies that find that the Previous 3-year team performance has a high correlation with recruiting success. The guys that USC can't get may go to UCLA, or Oregon, or Washington, or who knows so USC's performance relative to those teams will likely dip. The recruiting impact is bigger than USC is letting on. (Study is here)

 This is a really big deal.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 3:57 PM
(Reply to #4) #5
EverybodyMurders
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Joined: 09/27/2009
MGoPoints: 866
What the hell are you talking

What the hell are you talking about, everyone just wants to be Trojans!

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June 23rd, 2010 at 4:24 PM
(Reply to #5) #6
Blueisgood
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 567
I don't know if everyone

I don't know if everyone wants to be a Trojan. I just don't want my Trojans to break.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 4:03 PM
(Reply to #4) #7
joeyb
joeyb's picture
Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 14048
My understanding is that they

My understanding is that they have an overall limit of 75 scholarships and can only recruit 15 players each year. So, both.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 4:00 PM
#8
allintime23
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Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 15063
Yeah, all of the West coast media...

can continue to say that USC will be fine. We will see. I think they're screwed. I hope they're screwed.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 4:21 PM
#9
Maizeforlife
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Joined: 03/03/2010
MGoPoints: 2445
The impact will be felt for a

The impact will be felt for a few years.  Sadly, they got off light for what they did.  I thin USC should have gone the way of SMU.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 4:59 PM
#10
mejunglechop
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Joined: 07/09/2008
MGoPoints: 6619
That article assumes no

That article assumes no attrition. It should be substantially worse.

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June 23rd, 2010 at 5:28 PM
#11
PhillipFulmersPants
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Joined: 01/06/2009
MGoPoints: 2140
Between inevitable misses

in recruiting, nearly gaurunteed attrition, and the net benefit to other teams they compete with for top recruits,  this is likely a middle-of-the conference-team in years 3,4,5 of the Kiffin era, if he lasts that long. 

And even when they get their 25/85 back, I still think they'll struggle because they will have very small classes of juniors and seniors for 2-3 years. The 3 classes of 15 could reasonably be under 10 players each after 4-5 years (though it sounds like the 2011 may be able to have better numbers with the backdating of early enrollees.)

At any rate, Orgeron and Kiffin can try to spin this all day long. That ship is taking on water and they can't plug the leak for several years.

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June 24th, 2010 at 1:32 AM
#12
Tater
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Joined: 08/13/2008
MGoPoints: 30564
Insufficient data..

USC could get through it without more than a minor PITA, or they could implode.  I am hoping for the latter.  A lot of it depends on how long their media, fans, and players want to buy into Kiffin's load of horse pucky. 

By the time this is over, Kiffin's net effect could be similar to that of a tornado going through a trailer park but without any actual loss of life.

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June 24th, 2010 at 9:10 AM
(Reply to #13) #13
mejunglechop
mejunglechop's picture
Joined: 07/09/2008
MGoPoints: 6619
What do you mean Kiffin's net

What do you mean Kiffin's net effect? He wasn't responsible for any violations.

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