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This was an interesting overview of USC's scholarship situation given the loss of 10 scholarship recruits over each of the next 4 years.
I think the numbers are optimistic (i.e. wishful thinking) because they are assuming virtually no player attrition during this period.
"Assuming the scholarship penalties remain the same, the projected totals for USC are as follows:
2011: 75 scholarship players.
2012: 69 scholarship players.
2013: 72 scholarship players."
They have Lane Kiffin as their coach, so probably not.
Are you serious? The dude is poised to turn USC into the Tennessee of the west!
Was the penalty on the 85 overall limit or the 25 per year (kind of) limit?
Regardless, they're losing a whole recruiting class over the next 3 years. If the oversigning loophole is left open they'll be down 2 recruiting classes relative to Alabama and friends.
I've also seen studies that find that the Previous 3-year team performance has a high correlation with recruiting success. The guys that USC can't get may go to UCLA, or Oregon, or Washington, or who knows so USC's performance relative to those teams will likely dip. The recruiting impact is bigger than USC is letting on. (Study is here)
This is a really big deal.
What the hell are you talking about, everyone just wants to be Trojans!
I don't know if everyone wants to be a Trojan. I just don't want my Trojans to break.
My understanding is that they have an overall limit of 75 scholarships and can only recruit 15 players each year. So, both.
can continue to say that USC will be fine. We will see. I think they're screwed. I hope they're screwed.
The impact will be felt for a few years. Sadly, they got off light for what they did. I thin USC should have gone the way of SMU.
That article assumes no attrition. It should be substantially worse.
in recruiting, nearly gaurunteed attrition, and the net benefit to other teams they compete with for top recruits, this is likely a middle-of-the conference-team in years 3,4,5 of the Kiffin era, if he lasts that long.
And even when they get their 25/85 back, I still think they'll struggle because they will have very small classes of juniors and seniors for 2-3 years. The 3 classes of 15 could reasonably be under 10 players each after 4-5 years (though it sounds like the 2011 may be able to have better numbers with the backdating of early enrollees.)
At any rate, Orgeron and Kiffin can try to spin this all day long. That ship is taking on water and they can't plug the leak for several years.
USC could get through it without more than a minor PITA, or they could implode. I am hoping for the latter. A lot of it depends on how long their media, fans, and players want to buy into Kiffin's load of horse pucky.
By the time this is over, Kiffin's net effect could be similar to that of a tornado going through a trailer park but without any actual loss of life.
What do you mean Kiffin's net effect? He wasn't responsible for any violations.
