Updated Advanced S&P+ Profile - UM 61% favorites vs OSU, 97% vs MSU
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2016-michigan-advanced-statistic…
The full S&P+ stats post week 7 are out. We are now favorites against both rivals and have a total win expectancy, combinatorial math limits and all, of 11.43. We are also projected to be 34 (!) point favorites at MSU.
October 17th, 2016 at 9:55 AM ^
I can see being heavy favorites against MSU given their season and lack of an O-line. And general lack of a QB so far. And giving up 54 points at Spartan Stadium to a pretty meh Northwestern team.
60%+ favorites against OSU at Ohio Stadium? That sounds a bit much to me. But to quote Travis from The Dismemberment Plan, I'd rather be happy than right this time.
October 17th, 2016 at 10:02 AM ^
I'll bet my left nut, right nut, and center nut (don't ask) that we will NOT be favored by 34 at MSU. I could see in the 21-24 range, but 34 is too much for a rivalry game. And I truly think Dantonio would forfeit the rest of the season to win that game...
October 17th, 2016 at 10:07 AM ^
Which is why when the line is out next week in the low 20s you should be a lot on Michigan to cover.
October 17th, 2016 at 10:09 AM ^
Dantonio is batting 1.000 against the spread when he plays Michigan.
Leveraging and betting every penny that you own on MSU to cover + whatever is the easiest money that you will ever make.
October 17th, 2016 at 10:12 AM ^
Dantonio has also never started 2-4 and had a team looking this lost. Have you watched them play? They shouldn't score against this D.
October 17th, 2016 at 10:15 AM ^
Yeah, and most people that suffer a house fire say, "You know, before this house fire, my house was on fire 0% of the time. So of course I didn't expect a house fire!" :-D
October 17th, 2016 at 10:19 AM ^
I have watched them play but I don't care. I have also watched Dantonio and his staff outprepare our coaches and their staff for a decade, a trend that spans four head coaches.
The people who think that this will be an easy victory for Michigan are in for a very rude awakening. It will basically be a replay of this year's OSU-Wisky game and a coin flip in the end.
October 17th, 2016 at 10:24 AM ^
Dantonio was 0-1 against Lloyd Carr. He "outprepared" Carr into a loss in a season where UM had lost to Appy State. He "outprepared" Harbaugh into a completely fluke, luck win in a season where his team went to the CFP. So you may want to settle down a bit on the hyperbole...
October 17th, 2016 at 10:32 AM ^
Our '07 win was a huge fluke. MSU absolutely outplayed us in that game until the last five minutes. It was a terrible coaching job by Carr bailed out by a ridiculous talent overload at the end.
Last year's win was a fluke at the end but before that we were only leading because of special teams domination -- i.e. Blake O'Neill's punts and Jabrill Peppers. MSU dominated us in terms of yardage, first downs, etc. They stole the game at the end but we had previously stolen it from them. Not an encouraging sign for future games.
October 17th, 2016 at 10:52 AM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 10:58 AM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 11:17 AM ^
you honestly think D'antwanio outprepared Harbaugh last year you don't know football, plain and simple.
October 17th, 2016 at 11:36 AM ^
I get your general point but you're going too far here.
First, there was nothing fluky about our '07 win. Yes, we came from behind, but there was nothing particularly unusual during the comeback - no dodgy penalties, miracle turnovers, etc. We drove for a TD, got a defensive stop, scored another TD, and got another stop.
And last year we led from start to (almost finish). If '07 is a fluke because we were behind, by that logic '15 certainly is a fluke. ESPN calls it the biggest statistical anomaly of the last 10 years (we had statistically a 99.8% chance of winning entering that last play).
October 17th, 2016 at 11:43 AM ^
I hadn't been pissed about that play for at least a few months. And now, there it is again.
October 17th, 2016 at 11:50 AM ^
A quick persual of your posting history basically shows that nothing is ever good enough for you. Watching games with you must be a blast.
October 18th, 2016 at 1:23 PM ^
Lloyd Carr in 2007. Go back and watch the game...our defense inexcusably gave up two long TD runs right up the gut, which put them ahead BIG. Carr did a great job of keeping the team focused and believing they could still win.
October 18th, 2016 at 9:02 PM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 10:42 AM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 11:00 AM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 17th, 2016 at 11:02 AM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 11:20 AM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 11:38 AM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 11:48 AM ^
The play-calling at the end of last year's game got us into a final play where we win 999/1000 times. How can you possibly second-guess that? If we throw on that series, you don't think something really bad happens at least .5% of the time?
October 17th, 2016 at 12:41 PM ^
The fluke was that FB running for 74 yds. If he gets tackled anywhere between where he caught the ball and the redzone, time runs out before that final play. Michigan was up 2 scores at that point.
October 17th, 2016 at 1:07 PM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 3:02 PM ^
That's what made it a fluke. FBs don't get that wide open.
October 17th, 2016 at 3:13 PM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 3:18 PM ^
I don't know that he recognized any particular tendency. He called a gadget play and as it happened, Delano Hill got sucked in too close to the line of scrimmage. He also called a fake punt which blew up in his face, incidentally. He doesn't bat 1.000 on this stuff.
None of which changes the fact that he had this game lost until the most improbable ending in college football in the last 10 years (per ESPN's statisticians) happened.
October 17th, 2016 at 6:44 PM ^
Dantonio doesn't even call plays. That's Warner. You know, the guy that the entire MSU fanbase wants fired?
October 17th, 2016 at 11:56 AM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 12:07 PM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 12:44 PM ^
Rudock was not good at that point. They were only giving him half the field to read. If that option wasn't open, he was instructed to throw it away. Despite that plan, they had enough offense and defense to win that game. If late season Rudock played in that game, they win easy.
October 17th, 2016 at 12:53 PM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 2:07 PM ^
Speight isn't great but he isn't worse than mid-season Rudock.
October 17th, 2016 at 2:24 PM ^
October 18th, 2016 at 6:09 AM ^
MSU is 2-4 and their wins are against 1-6 Furman and 2-5 Notre Dame.
I live in Lansing and even the locals concede (begrudgingly) that they are not a good team this year.
They've all sold out and are now cheering for WMU.
October 17th, 2016 at 11:38 AM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 11:41 AM ^
My disagreement here is with your assumption that trends that held against Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke will hold against Jim Harbaugh.
Dantonio is extraordinarily lucky not to be 0-1 against Harbaugh (this cannot be emphasized enough), and that was possibly the least-talented Michigan team he'll ever face under Harbaugh.
October 17th, 2016 at 11:57 AM ^
The piece that has stood out to me is Mork has their team playing tough (generally). Our teams have been soft under the previous regimes. Not so with the current one. They win by playing tough and mean. We just seemed to try to be too nice. That's gone now. Yes, they will be prepared, yes they will play tough/mean/hard/dirty, yes we will still be able to handle it. Like mentioned, there isn't a single position group that they have a noticeable advantage on us other than PK. Harbaugh will ALSO be prepared and we will see a dominating performance. It's not only a big game for them, this is a HUGE game for us. We will be prepared.
October 17th, 2016 at 12:11 PM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 12:04 PM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 12:19 PM ^
How on earth was he "relaxed" before the game was over? We maximized our chances of winning, and then lost. That happens sometimes.
October 17th, 2016 at 12:52 PM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 1:06 PM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 1:43 PM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 6:10 PM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 1:28 PM ^
You can reasonably fault our coaches for using the wrong formation on that last play but its nonsense to fault the head coach for something you know nothing about.
October 17th, 2016 at 1:45 PM ^
October 17th, 2016 at 1:52 PM ^
Since players always do exactly what coaches tell them to do, could you inform Harbaugh that he should tell Speight to throw touchdowns on every play? Thx -- glad we'll get that solved.
October 17th, 2016 at 2:15 PM ^