Update: Brown Predictions
So as to not let the board go devoid of hypothetical, fan-girl caterwauling for too long, here is the latest on Jaylen Brown:
Last 19 picks (!!!) have been to Michigan now, and we sit at 50% on his Crystal Ball (Kentucky is next at 26%). Of the latest picks, of note are:
Jerry Meyer, 247 Director of Basketball Scouting
Jason Marcum, Kentucky Sports Connection
Randy Newman, Big Blue Express
Ross Martin, UNC Insider
Chad Lykins and Chris Bunn, Blue Devil Lair
Also interesting is Kentucky offering a new combo forward yesterday. Shaun Kirk is a 6'7 3* SF from NC and is committed to NC State. In a trend possibly related to Jaylen's crystal ball, the last 5 picks for Kirk have him going to Kentucky. Is Kentucky scrambling for a last second option to fill the space they had saved for Brown? Does Brown not care that Coach Cal knows Drake?!? I'm sure we'll find out soon.
Edit: Instant update. PF Cheick Diallo just committed to Kansas (who is already thought to be out of the Brown sweepstakes anyways) and the UK recruiting writer for the Lexington Herald also says all signs point to Brown to Michigan.
Just predictions...but it looks solid to me.
This is WITHOUT Brown and no redshirts...
PG: Walton - 20 / Albrecht - 20
SG: Dawkins - 19 / Walton - 12 / LeVert - 6 / MAAR - 3
SF: LeVert - 27 / Irvin - 8 / Robinson - 5
F: Irvin - 25 / Chatman - 12 / Wagner - 3
C: Doyle - 19 / Wilson - 9 / Donnal - 6 / Wagner - 6
- LeVert: 33
- Irvin: 33
- Walton: 32
- Albrecht: 20
- Dawkins: 19
- Doyle: 19
- Chatman: 12
- Wilson: 9
- Wagner: 9
- Donnal: 6
- Robinson: 5
- MAAR: 3
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- We'll NEVER have a 12 man rotation - but it's impossible to predict without any of us knowing how good Robinson or Wagner really is. If Robinson is a freshman Stauskas Jr., he gets more minutes, if Wagner really is a Top 50 kid, he's going to get more than 10 minutes per. But we just don't know.
- Redshirt MAAR - this is a no brainer...no reason to waste a year on 3 minutes a game. Give those 3 mpg to Robinson or one of your stars.
- Too guard heavy - we don't have a C nor a PF type that is in the top 5 in minutes (oddly enough, the next 5 are ALL C/PF types)
- Redshirt Wagner if he's NOT HS Top 50 calibur - he should be this year's "coaches wanted to redshirt, but he was too good" story like LeVert or Dawkins. If not, sit him and let him get acclimated. Those are 9 minutes you can spread out and get guys to more realistic PT numbers. You add in the 3 from MAAR and you have a nice 10-man rotation with realistic minutes spread around.
If Wagner and MAAR redshirt...
PG: Walton - 20 / Albrecht - 20
SG: Dawkins - 19 / Walton - 13 / LeVert - 8
SF: LeVert - 26 / Robinson - 8 / Irvin - 6
F: Irvin - 28 / Chatman - 12
C: Doyle - 20 / Wilson - 10 / Donnal - 8 / Chatman - 2
- LeVert: 34
- Irvin: 34
- Walton: 33
- Albrecht: 20
- Doyle: 20
- Dawkins: 19
- Chatman: 14
- Wilson: 10
- Donnal: 8
- Robinson: 8
You add Brown in the mix and that's 13 guys with Brown getting 20+ minutes.
We're still not playing more than 10 guys, so that's kicking someone out of the rotation and stealing at least 20 minutes from a bunch of others...
LeVert -2, Irvin -2, Walton -2, Albrecht -2, Dawkins -6, Robinson -5, Donnal -4 = 23 minutes for Brown
That's low for a starter...you probably take 4 more minutes from Chatman and maybe some from Wilson to get him in the high 20's.
I would obviously love this scenario, but the only problem I see with it is...do you really think Brown would come here to play "only" 23 minutes per game? That's the one sticking point I can't seem to get my head around. I understand that perhaps he sees the value in playing under Beilein and with seasoned players who understand the system, but if he sees himself as a one-and-done, wouldn't he want to enter a situation where he could maximize his playing time?
Just trying to talk myself off the ledge :)
Edit: ok, I'm now seeing your added comment at the end. Thx.
Definitely a level-headed, mature approach, I'd say. This sort of mentality may bode well for Michigan's chances also, given that he has praised Coach Beilein for how good of a job he's done with player development, acknowledging the guys that went from unheralded recruits to lottery picks.
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Sounds good to me! Thanks for the reply.
April 28th, 2015 at 11:25 PM ^
href="http://www.umhoops.com/2015/03/30/notebook-jaylen-brown-hopes-to-decide-in-april/">referenced from an interview with Jaylen Brown by Scout.
On Michigan and Coach Beilein...
Michigan, I have a lot of family. I’m based in Michigan so I could deflect a lot of stuff because my family is there, so Michigan is definitely going to be in the front runner of things. Talking to Coach Beilein, he’s like an offensive genius the way he gets these guys that aren’t really ranked high to be lottery picks in the draft is amazing. It’s definitely something that drew my attention.
Jaylen on anticipating 2+ years in college, taking the time to develop so that he's actually NBA ready when he declares....
I want to develop. People say I’m ready to go this year. People say I’ll be ready next year. To do what I want to do, I think it’ll take me at least two years. I don’t want to come into a situation like the NBA and have to develop for two or three years. When I come in I want to be a superstar. Coming in I want to be on superstar status. Coming in I don’t want to have to wait two years. It’s going to take development and it’s going to take hard work. I know I can make the business move and be a top five, top 10 or top 15 draft pick if I just had a solid year in college and left. I love the game too much to chase after the money. I know your heath is not secure, but I love the game. Your heath is never secure. You could get hurt anytime. I just want to develop and be the best player I can be. When I’m ready, I’m ready.
The fact that money isn't a priority for Brown certainly makes me optimistic that Kentucky is less likely to be a factor.
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Please quote where I said otherwise. I'll wait.
It is highly unlike Michigan goes above 9, let alone 12 or 13.
All the starters from the 1-4 spot will get 30 minutes+
Yet we have a few folks who seem to think we're going to play 13 players regularly on one team.
Kentucky didn't even do that last year. They played 10 and went to 8 or 9 when one got hurt.
But Beilein...who rarely has a rotation of more than EIGHT is going to play more than ten guys regular minutes. Okay.
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It'd be interesting though to see what the stats were for offensive efficiency with MAAR in the game. Even though he wasn't a major threat shooting the ball, he could obviously drive and finish pretty well, which, generally speaking, forces defenses to play a bit more compact. So my question is whether or not the threat of MAAR attacking the rim was enough prevent a drop in offensive production by helping our wings space the floor and get better looks.
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If I am allowed, I will take issue with your suggestion that Wagner "should probably" red-shirt. Find me a Euro player who has red-shirted. If that were the option, I suspect he would just stay in Europe where he could ..... play.
I appreciate that there appear to be a couple of logjams, but Beilein will work it out.
Additionally, adding redshirts ties our hands in recruiting for 2017 and 2018.
Reading here is so shortsided...
I said redshirt if he's not a top 50 type.
His ranking screams he's a top 50 player, so that takes him out of the discussion.
What I said is if he gets to campus, it is clear he's not going to play decent minutes like a top 50 freshman would (even Chatman did)...THEN you redshirt him.
As of right now he's in that McGary to Chatman range, which is huge because McGary was an impact freshman who people thought might leave after year one and Chatman struggled and people even in this thread are saying he should redshirt next year.
But I'm saying if he happens to be BELOW that Chatman level, there is no point in playing him.
That's it. If you still disagree, fine, no worries...but at least respond to the post as written.
contribute. Several of them won't be in the rotation, so there's a real chance that a pretty good player or two will redshirt. Fall practices should be very interesting.
re: why redshirt MAAR?
Because we need more 28 year old players like BYU! To balance our 18 year old one and dones coming down the pike.
Having an old J-Mo late in his career was nice as well.
Don't put the cart before the horse.
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People are assuming you have a top 3 player in the country, a returning starting PG and a NBA top 20 draft pick all coming back to your team.
All of which are going to play around 30 minutes a game.
It's just math.
Walton, LeVert and Brown would command at least 90 minutes, probably more. They have to come from someone.
It has nothing to do with MAAR not being ready or not being talented enough.
Solely for the OP's handle and avatar.
We should get together and play nightcrawlers sometime.
I'll bring the jelly beans.
As long as you bring Froggie with you.
Most Kentucky fans have been saying they don't think they have much of a chance with Brown at all.
According to a Kentucky fan on Reddit:
"I don't think any UK "source" has been confident since he came out and said his family hates UK."
If this is true, then it seems like it's mostly going to be a Michigan-California battle, although you can never really count out Coach Cal.
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April 28th, 2015 at 11:29 PM ^
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I don't normally get excited over recruiting. I've checked this site more times than I care to admit today. Getting excited, and I'm not sure how to feel about that.
Go Blue young man!
I'm trying to not get excited about the possibility of Brown, but it sure does seem to be going in that direction.
the Boat!
Beat State!
Levert and Jaylen Brown? I might be more excited for basketball than football season.
Blah...I remember a few weeks ago a lot of crystal balls go to Cal for Swanigan as well. I'd say at this rate as long as things are quiet on his front no one really knows.
Brown would be great for one year though.
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Brown seems like GR3...if GR3 attacked the rim every time he got the ball.
And could dribble...
*not saying GRIII was bad, just Brown is better.
This is positive news, but it's not like every analyst has independent information causing them to make these predictions. It's probably one or two guys that have heard something, and the rest are just piling on.
I just don't want to get hurt...
April 28th, 2015 at 10:40 PM ^