Upcoming Rankings
I know a lot has been said regarding our team and its performance this season...and rightfully so. They are young in some tough places, they are error prone, yes, but they are also tough and resilient...two things we have not always been in recent years. That got me to thinking. After this weeks crazy events...after all, a win is a win. Michigan lost last week. We lost to an unranked 4-2 PSU, on the road, in "4" overtimes...yes, we had chances to win. That loss dropped us from 18th, to out of the AP poll. Now what? #6 LSU lost @ unranked 4-3 Ole Miss; TAMU lost AT HOME to 6-1 #24 Auburn; #8 L'ville lost AT HOME to unranked 5-1 UCF; #9 UCLA lost @ #13 Stanford {hmm, they get a pass}; #10 Miami, YTM won, by 3, after a 4th quarter come back @ 1-5 UNC (note the same UNC squad BLOWN OUT BY EAST CAROLINA AT HOME!!!); #11 SCarolina lost @ unranked 4-3 TENN; #15 UGA lost @ unranked 4-3 Vandy; and #20 Washington lost @ Arizona State 5-2. If MICH falls out of the rankings after losing in 4 OT on the road against an unranked foe....what happens to all these teams? {UCLA loss withstanding} All, eh hem, most teams have weaknesses and struggles, ours included, but we have one loss, meaning our boys, mostly 18-20 year olds, have found a way to win 6 outta 7. What happens in the next rankings? Discuss.
October 20th, 2013 at 1:02 PM ^
I always prefer coming to uncoming...
October 20th, 2013 at 1:05 PM ^
Thanks...first post.
October 20th, 2013 at 11:44 PM ^
I wouldn't have guessed.
October 20th, 2013 at 1:03 PM ^
October 20th, 2013 at 1:04 PM ^
The rankings will sort themselves out. I think we're appropriately ranked right now. There isn't a game left that we can't win, and there isn't a game left that I will comfortable saying we WILL win. I'm comfortable being #24 with something to prove in November.
I realize that isn't your point, but those are my thoughts. The teams you've mentioned have all looked better than us in this season as a whole. A little surprised that MSU isn't in the #23-25 range to be honest.
October 20th, 2013 at 1:06 PM ^
I've been wondering about that myself...you think its Anti-B10 bias? Or lack of faith in their offense?
October 20th, 2013 at 1:08 PM ^
If we were legit contenders for a BCS bowl (i.e. had an expectation, not just hope, of running the table), we might have a rankings beef. But we will rise progressively higher if we win @State, vs. Nebraska, @NW, and vs Ohio.
October 20th, 2013 at 1:20 PM ^
October 20th, 2013 at 1:22 PM ^
I find our expected wins on the remaining schedule interesting from Massey Ratings
http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4741&s=199231
|
Sat
2013-11-02
|
at |
Michigan St
|
31
(6-1)
|
29 %
|
24 | 31 | |
|
Sat
2013-11-09
|
Nebraska
|
43
(5-1)
|
62 %
|
38 | 35 | ||
|
Sat
2013-11-16
|
at |
Northwestern
|
62
(4-3)
|
50 %
|
35 | 34 | |
|
Sat
2013-11-23
|
at |
Iowa
|
51
(4-3)
|
47 %
|
31 | 33 | |
|
Sat
2013-11-30
|
Ohio St
|
8
(7-0)
|
34 %
|
37 | 42 |
October 20th, 2013 at 3:07 PM ^
It's not that Iowa isn't good so much as the perception of the other wins will probably be better by voters. In other words, winning at Iowa probably will not provide as much of a bump as the other games.
October 20th, 2013 at 5:57 PM ^
but not losing will cause us to rise as we take the spots vacated by others.
Applying my generic rule of thumb, that it takes 3-5 weeks to halve your rating if you don't lose, I'd project a ranking of ~12 heading into The Game if we win those four.
October 20th, 2013 at 1:07 PM ^
If we'd manhandled Akron and Uconn like we were supposed to instead of, you know, ALMOST LOSING TO THEM, we probably break into the top ten, don't drop very far when we lose at Penn State, and then move right back into the thick of things this week.
Instead we're at where we are right now, and I'm not terribly bothered by it. It happens.
October 20th, 2013 at 1:10 PM ^
To be fair, we were dropped out of the polls after struggling to beat Akron, UConn, and Minny. Those games dropped us over a several week span, where we bounced around the 15-19 range. It wasn't like we went from #11 to unranked in one week.
October 20th, 2013 at 1:17 PM ^
October 20th, 2013 at 1:26 PM ^
We were tied at the end of the first quarter, and went ahead 14 to 7 just before the half. I have to say that I was pretty nervous before the second half. Probably made an overstatement on my part because of that, but it wasn't like we came out guns ablazin' from the beginning of the game either.
October 20th, 2013 at 1:34 PM ^
A team that just beat Northwestern on the road. UM did not struggle to beat Minnesota. That game was close at half because of a ridiculously long drive Minnesota had.
October 20th, 2013 at 1:50 PM ^
It's a Big 10 team that is in the bottom half of the computer rankings. That drive happened because our defense couldn't get them off the field. Also FWIW, Northwestern (62) is now hanging around the same computer ranking as Minnesota (69).
October 20th, 2013 at 1:17 PM ^
Yep. This hasn't looked like a top 25 team since Week 2. Voters excuse a hiccup -- we've been like this for a majority of the season.
October 20th, 2013 at 1:18 PM ^
October 20th, 2013 at 1:25 PM ^
When your wins look awful and people win behind who in better fashion, you're going to get dropped. Pretty simple.
Needing a goal line stand with questionable penalties to not lose at home agaisnt the worst team in the FBS in the past 5 years needs to be punished. That would have been more embarassing than App St. At least they were good.
October 20th, 2013 at 6:09 PM ^
Everyone else above us has no more than our one loss.
|
AP Top 25 |
|||
|
RK |
TEAM |
RECORD |
PTS |
|
13 |
LSU |
6-2 |
739 |
|
14 |
Texas A&M |
5-2 |
683 |
|
20 |
South Carolina |
5-2 |
381 |
|
22 |
Wisconsin |
5-2 |
258 |
|
24 |
Michigan |
6-1 |
169 |
October 20th, 2013 at 1:26 PM ^
One of the reasons that it is interesting to track the average rankings in the polls is to break down the reactions to these games. The Penn State game (Week 8) shows how a portion of the voters not ranking us has decoupled our actual rank from the average rank that we get, which I think is rather interesting. We actually stayed fairly steady between UConn and Minnesota, but then the polls are a reaction to many different things external to Michigan.
October 20th, 2013 at 1:59 PM ^
Thanks LSA! This is, in part, what I was hoping for, responses with some sense of what voters might be up to. As for me, I am not unhappy with our current position giving our performance to date, but many friends in the SEC, who have discussed poll positions with me, had espoused the need to "drop MICH" because of that loss to an unranked team. Given that a number of SEC teams had done likewise this past week, I thought I'd run it by more "like-minded" people, MICH fans...like myself. Not sure what all the negativity is for in the down votes, but, to each...
October 20th, 2013 at 6:13 PM ^
1) you only have 257 points. This board is notoriously hard on newbies...whether fair or not (some are douches, to be sure).
2) the way the team has played this year, rankings are the LEAST of our worries.
I think this discussion is fine, so no neg here, but I can't get excited about it (see #2).
Edit: Your OP could have used a paragraph break as well. Sometimes a line of whitespace is your friend.
October 20th, 2013 at 1:14 PM ^
October 20th, 2013 at 1:39 PM ^
I fully expect for Michigan to go 2-3 in November.
October 20th, 2013 at 1:47 PM ^
You are in fairly close agreement with the computers. Massey Ratings has us projected 2-3 for November and Power Rankings has us with a projected 9-3 record as 50% most likely.
http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4741&s=199231
http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/michigan-wolverines/projections
October 20th, 2013 at 11:02 PM ^
Thank God the computers won't be on the field.
October 20th, 2013 at 1:47 PM ^
I am comfortable with our ranking after our abysmal showings versus Akron, UConn, and Penn State. One close victory over an inferior team is a fluke, two is cause for concern, three (which became a loss) shows that we are not a Top 20 team right now.
As others have said, we will go up the rankings once (if) we beat legitimate teams like MSU, Nebraska, and (wouldn't this be awesome?) Ohio. We can still get an at-large bid if we won out. Not saying it's probable, but it's possible.
October 20th, 2013 at 6:16 PM ^
If we end up with two losses (e.g., win out in regular season but lose in the B1G Champ game), an at-large bid is very likely. Three losses, and I doubt we're in the Top 14 necessary to be eligible.
October 20th, 2013 at 1:50 PM ^
The rankings are a crapshoot at this point in the season. Most teams have only played 1-2 meaningful games, so it's hard to determine who really deserves the ranking. But the season always works itself out; if Michigan keeps winning, they'll move up.
It's not like Michigan was cruising along, had one hiccup and wsa punished in the polls. They have struggled for weeks, and the polls were waiting for a loss to drop them. If Michigan had been a top 10 team when they lost to PSU, they wouldn't have dropped out of the polls, just like LSU or T&M for Clemson aren't dropping out of the polls for one loss.
October 20th, 2013 at 2:35 PM ^
The rest takes care of itself.
October 20th, 2013 at 4:45 PM ^
A quick look at FEI rankings for Michigan and the remaining teams on the schedule shows the following -
| Team | Overall FEI | Rank | Off FEI | Rank | Def FEI | Rank |
| U-M | 0.110 | 34 | 0.295 | 29 | -0.325 | 32 |
| MSU | 0.160 | 22 | 0.034 | 60 | -0.638 | 9 |
| NEB | 0.083 | 40 | 0.175 | 40 | -0.326 | 30 |
| NW | 0.051 | 51 | 0.121 | 47 | -0.125 | 50 |
| IOWA | 0.124 | 30 | -0.143 | 81 | -0.435 | 18 |
| OSU | 0.177 | 20 | 0.322 | 26 | -0.341 | 27 |
So according to Fremeau, our most difficult opponent left on the schedule is not Ohio but Sparty. I say that because Ohio looks to rank about the same in offensive and defensive FEI as us.
October 20th, 2013 at 5:17 PM ^