UM/ND line is now UM +3.5
I am here in LV for a couple of days and went to place a few bets and noticed that the line for UM/ND has moved. Opened at +6, then last Saturday was +5.5 and is now +3.5. I was told that betting interest in the game has been the highest so far this year.
September 4th, 2014 at 2:01 PM ^
Think you mean +3.5
September 4th, 2014 at 2:05 PM ^
Too much going on here
September 4th, 2014 at 2:05 PM ^
September 4th, 2014 at 2:08 PM ^
I think Oregon's defense is suspect.
September 4th, 2014 at 2:13 PM ^
September 4th, 2014 at 2:27 PM ^
September 4th, 2014 at 2:34 PM ^
I disgaree since Stanford actually plays offense. MSU's offense pretty much blows. Cook gets way too much credit for the Defense's accomplishments. At the end of the say he's a sub-60% passer who quarterbacked an offense that ranked 80th in the nation last year. Their O-line is also a big question mark and run blocking looked very poor especially against a weak JSU team.
September 4th, 2014 at 2:43 PM ^
I also think Stanford has an advantage from playing them year in and year out, sparty can watch all the film they want but Oregon has a history of blowing teams out this early in the year
September 4th, 2014 at 3:22 PM ^
September 4th, 2014 at 3:46 PM ^
To make the playoffs, Michigan needs to go 13-0. If Michigan goes undefeated they will make the playoffs even if MSU loses by 100.
September 4th, 2014 at 5:08 PM ^
If FSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, Michigan and Stanford or oregon go undefeated you dont think Michigan would be the team left out of the play off....
September 4th, 2014 at 5:14 PM ^
i will eat the corpse of an ebola victim
September 4th, 2014 at 5:25 PM ^
Documented. God I hope this doesn't happen, but we will have no choice but to send you to Africa.
September 4th, 2014 at 6:16 PM ^
September 4th, 2014 at 9:38 PM ^
They can only be stopped from "getting in our shit" by our team. What happens in Eugene has no bearing on any relationship between UM and MSU. That happens in East Lansing has every bearing.
September 4th, 2014 at 10:15 PM ^
September 5th, 2014 at 1:21 AM ^
MSU has not won a regular season game against a PAC-n opponent on the road since they beat Cal 19-0 in 1957. A win over Oregon would be huge. Conversely, Oregon's 2nd year coach has much riding on this game, the Ducks were a disappointment last year and losing at home as a double digit favorite will only add to the pressure.
September 5th, 2014 at 7:20 AM ^
I don't think that Sparty gains much by beating Oregon and losing to Michigan. Any MSU-Michigan competition for recruits is local. Sparty isn't a national recruiter; 4-star WRs in Folida aren't going to flock to East Lansing because MSU beat oregon in Eugene.
OTOH, 4-star WRs in Florida are going to notice when Michigan plays MSU in a big game, with Gameday there and all the hoopla, if MSU beats Oregon and the M-MSu game is suddenly a game between a national number 2 and a national number 11 (or whatever).
The recruiting benefits to MSU of this Saturday's game were achieved when Gameday announced that they were going to be in Eugene: "hey, three-star Michigan player, you can play in marquee games if you come to MSU." If they lose, that message remains the same.
An MSU loss in Eugene hurts our program, IMO.
September 4th, 2014 at 7:27 PM ^
Can't wait for all the ebola corpse challenge vids that pop up on the board once you refuse.
September 5th, 2014 at 2:11 PM ^
Most of those teams have a btter chance of going undefeated than we do.
I'm sure FSU and Oklahoma will be favored to win all of their games, as will Alabama more than likely. That leaves Oregon and Stanford each of which hasn't lost more than 2 games in last few years.
Michigan has struggled with some bad teams the past 6 years. It has struggled with some good teams also like MSU and OSU. Both of those games are on the road, where we have also struggled mightily. The chances of the above listed teams going undefeated is a lot greater than our chance of going undefeated.
September 4th, 2014 at 5:42 PM ^
MSU might have a slightly better defense than those Stanford teams, but Stanford's offense has historically been quite a bit better. I think it will be a close game so the line is a bit high, but familiarity between the two teams helped Stanford keep it close and pull off some upsets; I'm guessing MSU might have more trouble getting acclimated.
September 4th, 2014 at 9:39 PM ^
I agree with this. The Stanford comparison just isn't apt.
September 4th, 2014 at 2:53 PM ^
September 4th, 2014 at 3:18 PM ^
September 4th, 2014 at 2:52 PM ^
I think the real battle of the game is going to be the Oregon defense vs the Michigan State offense. Oregon is going to score, its just a matter of how often. So Michigan State is going to need to score a few touchdowns to win this game. If Oregon's defense can stop them, Sparty is in trouble.
September 4th, 2014 at 3:53 PM ^
I think it was certainly wise to take the points there, even if you didn't think their defense is suspect.
September 4th, 2014 at 4:17 PM ^
September 4th, 2014 at 2:06 PM ^
State +13 seems like easy money, imo. Of course, I am not a gambler so what do I know......other than +13 seems like easy money.
September 4th, 2014 at 2:50 PM ^
I'd just stay away from this game if I were betting. If MSU's defense holds, it'll be a lot closer than 13 points. But if they can't stop Oregon enough, they don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with them, so it could easily be a blow out. It could be a 28-24 game, or it just as easily could be a 41-14 game.
September 4th, 2014 at 3:06 PM ^
I'm not a gambling man, but this seems about right ... this will either be a close MSU victory or an Oregon blow-out.
Given it's (a) early in the season, and (b) in Oregon ... my spidey senses say the latter.
September 4th, 2014 at 7:42 PM ^
I'm skeptical they'll win, but I doubt they're going to lose by two TDs. I envision something like 28-17 Oregon
September 4th, 2014 at 2:07 PM ^
to U-M +3.5
I hope the line trend means we're gonna go in there and kick there arse.
I know, I know, it only means that more folks are betting M and Vegas wants to even it out for the vig.
September 4th, 2014 at 4:13 PM ^
Or that the smart money saw a mispricing and loaded the boat w/ Michigan.
September 4th, 2014 at 2:09 PM ^
I wonder if Vegas got some clear indicators about those suspended players
September 4th, 2014 at 2:13 PM ^
I would be shocked if they played. Even the Irish fans who, as recently as yesterday, thought all but one would be reinstated have kind of resigned themselves to that fact.
September 4th, 2014 at 2:29 PM ^
or, if they are cleared today, that they will be very limited in terms of being up to speed/condition. 3.5 means this game is pick'em on a neutral site. Key will be which units are for real, and which simply excelled against crappy competition. Lots of real questions reamin for both teams after Week 1; my sense is that slightly more of those are on ND's side of the ball
September 4th, 2014 at 2:09 PM ^
Michigan is going to win.
September 4th, 2014 at 2:12 PM ^
Oligatory comment about betting lines: Vegas will open them higher (like Oregon -13 or Michigan -6) in order to spread the money out and influence people to bet a certain way.
September 4th, 2014 at 2:14 PM ^
Can someone clarify for me please...
from a betting perspective +3.5 and +5.5 is functionally equivalent, right? I mean, it's more than a FG and less than a TD...
September 4th, 2014 at 2:17 PM ^
September 4th, 2014 at 2:24 PM ^
31-27. Blam. Vegas'ed.
September 4th, 2014 at 2:24 PM ^
Bill Simmons always talks about a 5.5 point game being an indicator that Vegas has no idea what's going to happen. I think they set it at 5.5 points because they don't know if it's a 3 point game or a 7 point game, so if the action starts coming in one way, they don't have that far to move the line.
September 4th, 2014 at 2:16 PM ^
September 4th, 2014 at 2:24 PM ^
I would not be surprise if the line drops a few more points by Saturday. Michigan beating ND is alway good. Time to show what Nussmeier has accomplished so far.
September 4th, 2014 at 2:34 PM ^
Do you have a link to the Week 2 picks? I looked around and couldn't find it.
September 5th, 2014 at 4:38 AM ^
CBS writers predictions link: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/features/writers/expert/picks
Nothing similar on SI but there is a article by Michael Rosenberg regarding Michigan and ND.
September 5th, 2014 at 7:50 AM ^
Those picks were based on the 5.5 point spread. I'm kinda surpised that two of seven picked ND, having to give up 5.5 points.
September 4th, 2014 at 2:25 PM ^
At 5.5 and 13 I said I'd take both road dogs and I still think that.
Everyone is focused on MSU's D v Oregon's O but if MSU's run game can control the clock it will be close or they could pull it out. Oregon plays like Indiana but with better athletes so they score quick. Their defense is going to be out against MSU's offense all day in searing heat. MSU basically played OSU and Stanford pretty equal the first 3 quarters and then wore them down in the 4th so that is their playbook. But they seemed to have a better OL last year that could create more of a run game than what we saw versus JSU. Oregon's D is also nothing to write home about so that matchup (Sparty O v Oregon D) I think will actually determine the game.
I think if it wasn't for Golson UM should be a favorite in this one - outside of OL I dont see a position group that ND is better at, other than maybe RBs and that ties in with OL - i.e. flip their RBs behind our line and our RBs behind their line and things change. Devin carries UM at home versus a pretty solid ND so I think that is the same theory here with Golson for ND fans and bettors.