UM/FSU pre game thoughts?
we lost to Iowa st. on the road
At there home*
Beilein is a master a developing game plans to take apart teams like FSU. Athletes might be even but coaches are most certainly not.
Decided schematic advantadge goes to Michigan. We win.
You do realize he has less than 24 hours to prepare for FSU?
He also had about one day to prepare for VCU and Florida in the NCAA tournament last year and he made both look utterly silly as we won by 25 and 20 respectively
"less than 24 hours" and he said we were going to develop a scheme. Just saying, that's not much time. At least before they had a day off in between games to prepare.
does have a very consistent history of success against teams like Florida State. Tennessee, Memphis, VCU, these are all teams that rely on athleticism, quickness, and pressure to just physically overmatch teams on the break and wear them down. However, the one area that I have major concern is defensive rebounding and defending at the rim. FSU seems to just sell out and send everybody to the rim on the offensive glass. Now, that could mean a lot of easy looks for Michigan in transition if they take care of the glass and get out in space to get some open shooters. However, to this point I have seen nothing to make me believe that Michigan is solid on the glass at this point in time to really keep FSU out of there. Keeping in mind that I don't think we are watching the same Michigan team that we will be in March, I really don't like our chances today. We are too unsettled inside and really not disciplined enough at the point right now to really exploit what FSU allows you to do if you are competent in those areas. I see kind of a frustrating game for us today. I foresee myself yelling "Get a rebound" on several occassions.
They're a huge team, with those three 7 footers and bunch of other big dudes. It's going test Michigan's rebounding and post defense. It should be an interesting game.
They have some bigs, that's for sure. If UM can shoot well from beyond the arc and rebound, I don't see them losing this game.
Anyone know what Kenpom thinks?
EDIT: Vegas Insider has Michigan listed as an 18.5 point favorite, but some offshore sites have Michigan as a 3 point favorite. I am guessing Vegas Insider made a mistake listing the spread on their website.
I remember people fearing Memphis' athletes and how they would dunk all over us. I think it will be a good game. Part of we is wondering if people are starting to figure out how to deal with Havoc. Yes they made it to the Final Four but were a relatively unknown team then. They are now on peoples' radars so it may be easier to play them now than it was to play them a few years ago.
FSU will be a challenge but we will be one for them also.
"Havoc" actually did its job against FSU by forcing 25 turnovers, which is a lot. However, VCU was just ice cold. I believe they shot under 30%. VCU relies on easy baskets from their "havoc" and/or hitting threes. Their half-court offense is not good, so even if they force turnovers, I am sure the length of FSU caused problems for VCU in getting good looks.
They are a very athletic team that rebounds very well and gets a lot if inside chances. They don't shoot from the outside as well as Michigan but we better hit our shots and box out better than we have. If we shoot well we win by 10 to 15 points. If we don't shoot the three very well we get beat by 20. My biggest concern is the lack of touches McGary is getting in the post. He needs to get the ball and last night he wasn't fed the ball at all. He can dominate a game inside by getting the other teams bigs in foul trouble while scoring some close in baskets. I'm worried about this game and we need to play great to win. Inside outside scoring and rebounding. Hope it works.
I watched a bit of the replay of FSU-VCU and of course watched the M-LBSU game and came away with the following thoughts.
1. Make your free throws!! GRIII in particular has developed a bad habit of missing front ends, and it also has happened to Levert and Stauskas. There are gonna be plenty of fouls in this game, and making free throws will help take the aggressive edge off of FSU.
2. Do the little things. The team needs to show more hustle getting to loose balls. They also need to focus on boxing out when given the opportunity, and closing out on shooters. Sometimes they are helping off and that limits their ability to close out, but other times players have just slow/lazy getting out on shooters.
3. Have Walton drive less. Right now, when he gets in the lane he's a little overwhelmed, FSU has a lot of length and will only make this harder. He needs to be better about not dribble driving into no man's land.
4. Catch the dang ball. There were a ton of bobbled and lost rebounds/passes against both ISU and LBSU, capitalizing on extra offensive possessions and limiting second chances on D could be big in this game.
5. McGary will get more minutes. I have a feeling Beilein played Mitch less than he normally would like last night, so that he could be fresh for tonight's game.
6. Lastly I hope Beilein is willing to use his TOs. That was my only coaching criticism in the ISU game. JB let the team try to work though struggles on the floor a little bit too long, in my opinion.
Thats sort of JB's style, he did the same thing in the national championship game when louisville went on there run at the end of the first half.
I still would like to see him use them a bit more in those situations.
At this point in the season, I think it's OK to let the team try to work things out on its own. This time is about finding your bearings.
over the years, and one consistent tactic I've seen all the great coaches do is call timeouts quickly to try and prevent the other team from getting on a long run of points. It's probably THE most effective way to try and stop the other team from getting into an offensive rhythm. It doesn't always work. But, it's effective much of the time.
I don't know about that. Whenever I see that happen, it doesn't seem to do much to stem the other team's rally, and ends up just leaving the team in question with no timeouts in the final minutes.
I'm relieved to play them instead of a revenge-minded VCU. I wasn't sure how well we'd have handled their press without Burke and Hardaway. Of course, FSU is no slouch, either. Our post players are in for a challenge.
I think we could handle their press with Spike. That kid doesn't look like even he knows which way he's going sometimes.
Will be key I think. If we struggle to box out against these guys we will pay for it. Fsu has always been a great rebounding team
Thank God it isn't football.
I feel like there is a better way to say just win. gana y ya... maybe. solo ganar lacks a subject and is wrong grammactically. Of course, Spanish is not my first language.
I will be thinking about making some fried chicken and which six pack to get for the evening.
Open to suggestions.
I like two hearted, IPAs, and I just tried a few of the Flying dog beers (raging bitch and k9 winter ale).
If they are available in your area check out Dogfish Head 60 minute IPA, or either of the two Lagunitas IPAs, both the standard and Maximus are great. Founder's Centennial is another great IPA.
Better yet, Dogfish Head 90 minute.
Both great beers, but I prefer the 60 minute. Plus, a six pack of 60 minute is $11 and a four pack of 90 minutes is $12, at least here in Western NY.
over rated. But then many east coasters love those, so on this board my opinion is in the minority. but I just don't get it.
I've had the founders and 60 min mentioned above. might be hard with our respective locations/availability, I know.
Get the Huma
Which one, and what makes you feel that it (or they) are overrated?
90 minute is like 10% abv though.
Also, Deschutes Inversion IPA, 10 Barrel Apocalypse IPA, and Pyramid Outburst IPA.
I live in Oregon and those are three of my current favorites. Not sure if you can find them where you are.
I love the Deschutes and the 10 Barrel, but I'm not sold on the Pyramid. My current Oregon go to IPA's are the Ninkasi Total Domination and Caldera IPA.
Ninkasi is good. I live in Eugene (unfortunately) and that's where it's made. It's not my favorite but it's good.
Pyramid is made in Seattle, Portland, and Berkeley. It's barely a microbrew anymore. But the outburst is only 7.99 a sixer, and it's 8.5 abv or something like that. That's the main reason I buy it! Drink one 22 and you're feeling good!!
GR III to be more aggresive. Bigs to stop shooting 3's.
Horford's 3 point attempt looked very ugly. I don't think that's the shot they wanted at all. It didn't look nearly as bad as that kid on their team shooting free throws though lol
Spread now up to 18.5. Have to say I'm a little surprised Michigan is favored by so much.
Michigan is favored by 3.5 pts.
Vegas Insider has Michigan listed as an 18.5 point favorite right now but some offshore betting sites have Michigan listed as 3 point favorite.
I am guessing Vegas Insider listed the spread wrong.
I think the spread listed under the VCU game on Vegas Insider is meant for Michigan because they only have VCU listed as a 3 point favorite against Long Beach State.
Seems more like it.... Get in on that VCU game at 3....
18.5 seems way too high... something fishy there. Michigan was only favored by 14 over LB. However, MSU is favored by 15 over VT...
The mean margin according to Massey is 6 points, with a median predicted score of 72-66 Michigan and 71% for the estimated win probability. TeamRankings has pretty similar numbers as well, going with 69% for the win probability.
Actually, on the Massey site, it is sort of interesting to play with the predicted curves on this game. Our probability of scoring at least 80 points would be about 20%, whereas for FSU it would be less than 10% predicted.
Under Hamilton I've never thought of FSU as a run and gun team that tries to force a fast pace. More along the lines of a hard nosed defensive team that runs when the opportunities to do so are there. I haven't seen them this year so maybe they changed it up or they might have just been getting up and down the floor more due to VCU pushing the pace.
Remind me of a Tom Izzo team. Play aggressive defense, crash the offensive glass and run, run, run
This version of Michigan isn't ready to beat FSU quite yet. But they will be in March, when it matters.
Why do you think FSU is ready for UMich at this time? All teams (excluding Team 134) improve over the year.
If there isn't one fan with a DNA sign then we've lost a step as a fan base and as a society in general. I don't care if it is a completely different team.
Too much fear. Chill out, OP.
seen enough of FSU to have a well reasoned opinion. The Wolverines are vulnerable because of lack of experience. They miss Trey settling things down along with his situational sense. I am still not convinced that Stauskas has that or can take care of the ball. Caris wasn't able to do it last Sunday either. The team will get there but it's early. It hurts too that they weren't able to log a lot more practice minutes with Mitch who I suspect will eventually become more integral in the offense.
The fact FSU dismantled VCU doesn't faze me. VCU's scheme is such that if you have the type of team that can break their D, you're in for a big payday as VCU not just loses the ability to stop you, but also the basis for their offense. FSU figured VCU out, that's all. Just because they're built in such a way that they can break up one team's scheme, doesn't imply you are a good team that can stop most others.
I don't know enough about FSU to predict how we will fare against them, but I do know that their easy double digit win against the #10 team in the country is not as impressive as it would seem.
My wife goes to vcu's med school here and I've been to a few games and competition isn't on par to bigger conferences. They are good to pull off a lower seed upset here and there but they mostly win due to there home court being rowdy and full court pressure against sloppy back courts. Shaka Smart stayed at VCU for a reason, his defense won't win in a conference with quality guards.
FSU always seemed to give UNC, Duke issues in the past every now and then, that's why I worry about them. They are in a tough conference and always seem to be on the cusp of being top 25. Guess we will find out later, I'm intrigued by FSU matching up against us. I see them not letting us jack up 3s easily and put rebounding us, I feared Iowa state more for them being home but FSU can get ran over or run on us depending on how smart we are.
Am quite familiar with FSU over the years, since I've followed ACC basketball since the 80s.
Under Leonard Hamilton they've never been a "run and gun" type. They've stressed athleticism, length, rebounding, and defense.
Last year they averaged 67 ppg, good for 186th. In 2011-12, they averaged 69.9 ppg, good for 124th. In 2010-11, they averaged 69.3 ppg, good for 154th. In 2009-10, they averaged 68.5 ppg, good for 186th. in 2008-09, they averaged...yes, you guessed it; 68.6 ppg, good for 155th.
You get the picture; a run and gun team they are not. But they will disrupt the timing of teams with their physical style of basketball.
To run the floor if they can rather then run an offense and slow down. I'm no coach but they play fast, it costs them games but they also give good teams trouble.
I would like for the university of Michigan to win.