UM/FSU pre game thoughts?

Submitted by Sllepy81 on
I have always feared FSU, they are a disorganized at times run and gun athletic BBall program. I know Beilein can eat up the run and gun teams with our athletes but FSU is just as athletic as us. Hate these games, fun to watch but I wanted VCU. I knew Iowa St would have a good shot at taking us down at home, now I fear FSU runs with us. McGary might be less useful tonight having to keep up but we need some rebounds they're lengthy. Always feared running into an FSU in March, guess this is a good time to see how we play against them.

LSAClassOf2000

November 22nd, 2013 at 12:50 PM ^

The mean margin according to Massey is 6 points, with a median predicted score of 72-66 Michigan and 71% for the estimated win probability. TeamRankings has pretty similar numbers as well, going with 69% for the win probability. 

Actually, on the Massey site, it is sort of interesting to play with the predicted curves on this game. Our probability of scoring at least 80 points would be about 20%, whereas for FSU it would be less than 10% predicted. 

 

 

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130560

funkywolve

November 22nd, 2013 at 12:16 PM ^

Under Hamilton I've never thought of FSU as a run and gun team that tries to force a fast pace.  More along the lines of a hard nosed defensive team that runs when the opportunities to do so are there.  I haven't seen them this year so maybe they changed it up or they might have just been getting up and down the floor more due to VCU pushing the pace.

Joined: 10/08/2008

MGoPoints: 20175

AlwaysBlue

November 22nd, 2013 at 12:46 PM ^

seen enough of FSU to have a well reasoned opinion. The Wolverines are vulnerable because of lack of experience. They miss Trey settling things down along with his situational sense. I am still not convinced that Stauskas has that or can take care of the ball. Caris wasn't able to do it last Sunday either. The team will get there but it's early. It hurts too that they weren't able to log a lot more practice minutes with Mitch who I suspect will eventually become more integral in the offense.

Joined: 11/23/2008

MGoPoints: 7854

JHendo

November 22nd, 2013 at 1:34 PM ^

The fact FSU dismantled VCU doesn't faze me.  VCU's scheme is such that if you have the type of team that can break their D, you're in for a big payday as VCU not just loses the ability to stop you, but also the basis for their offense.  FSU figured VCU out, that's all.  Just because they're built in such a way that they can break up one team's scheme, doesn't imply you are a good team that can stop most others.  

I don't know enough about FSU to predict how we will fare against them, but I do know that their easy double digit win against the #10 team in the country is not as impressive as it would seem.

Joined: 10/25/2008

MGoPoints: 13993

Sllepy81

November 22nd, 2013 at 3:10 PM ^

My wife goes to vcu's med school here and I've been to a few games and competition isn't on par to bigger conferences. They are good to pull off a lower seed upset here and there but they mostly win due to there home court being rowdy and full court pressure against sloppy back courts. Shaka Smart stayed at VCU for a reason, his defense won't win in a conference with quality guards.

FSU always seemed to give UNC, Duke issues in the past every now and then, that's why I worry about them. They are in a tough conference and always seem to be on the cusp of being top 25. Guess we will find out later, I'm intrigued by FSU matching up against us. I see them not letting us jack up 3s easily and put rebounding us, I feared Iowa state more for them being home but FSU can get ran over or run on us depending on how smart we are.

Joined: 01/02/2013

MGoPoints: 7976

Never

November 22nd, 2013 at 1:38 PM ^

Am quite familiar with FSU over the years, since I've followed ACC basketball since the 80s.

Under Leonard Hamilton they've never been a "run and gun" type. They've stressed athleticism, length, rebounding, and defense.

Last year they averaged 67 ppg, good for 186th. In 2011-12, they averaged 69.9 ppg, good for 124th. In 2010-11, they averaged 69.3 ppg, good for 154th. In 2009-10, they averaged 68.5 ppg, good for 186th. in 2008-09, they averaged...yes, you guessed it; 68.6 ppg, good for 155th.

You get the picture; a run and gun team they are not. But they will disrupt the timing of teams with their physical style of basketball.

Joined: 11/07/2009

MGoPoints: 2552