UM vs. PSU Line Update

Submitted by FauxMo on

The line opened yesterday at UM -16. In a post on the topic I said I thought it would move to UM -17.5 or so, contrary to the purveyors of doom on here who think we got exposed by CU. I hereby admit I was wrong... The line is now already at a consensus UM -18.5, and as high as UM -19.5 on one book I saw. And honestly, I still like UM to cover...

 

Also, what do ya'll think of MSU at -6 over Wisky? I hate the word "trap game" when playing established rivals, but this sure seems like the kind of game where MSU could get a little complacent after a big showing in South Bend and slide back a bit. I like Wisky to cover, and maybe win outright!  

FauxMo

September 19th, 2016 at 2:23 PM ^

Oh, I almost always do. I have friends that go for "emotional hedges" and bet against UM in close spreads, so that if we lose at least they make money. I do the reverse - I double up the pain/pleasure effects. If we lose, I weep silently in the cover. If we win, I celebrate for the team and spend money like a Saudi prince on his 18th birthday! :-D 

FauxMo

September 19th, 2016 at 7:46 PM ^

OK, there are four outcomes here when I bet UM (from maximum to minimum pleasure):

-Win, cover - simply orgasmic

-Win, don't cover - hey, at least we won

-Don't win, cover - the loss hurts the heart, the extra cash softens the blow

-Don't win, don't cover - me, fetal position, corner, rubbing alcohol, etc. 

maize-blue

September 19th, 2016 at 2:33 PM ^

I regretfully agree. After seeing that Wisconsin had to pull their qb for being ineffective against a FCS school, I don't have faith in their ability to score. I think MSU is the more rounded team of the two. 

That being said, I fully expect to be favored and to win our match up against MSU.

LSAClassOf2000

September 19th, 2016 at 2:43 PM ^

I think MSU can cover probably rather easily in this upcoming game - Wisconsin had the ball against Georgia State for nearly 2/3rds of that game, racked up 400 yards of offense including 187 on the ground at a 3.8 YPC clip, Still, they struggled and had had to pull a win from their ass, only scoring 23 and winning by six in the end. Granted, they may very well find a groove in the MSU game, but the version of Wisconsin that scraped by Georgia State doesn't win this week.

Wolfman

September 19th, 2016 at 10:37 PM ^

Never, ever judge them in their pre-season ooc record unless it's game w/implication, i.e., ND. Dantonio has made his living off of this. He shows abosuletly nothing vs. no-names, and it's a good idea. Opposing fan bases unwisely get giddy watching and then disappointed when they simply march down the field against their team. ND fans thought this is what would happen Saturday and their points were also conveniently scored when the contest was no longer in question. Besides being a big win, it was a wise scoring differential. IMO, they could have held ND to the 7, maybe a contested 14. However, when that game was over he wisely allowed the score to indicate a close game when nothing could be further from the truth. MSU owned them. 

ijohnb

September 20th, 2016 at 5:14 AM ^

I do think it is possible. The "disrespect" angle is a big part of his tool box as far as keeping his players hungry. You can't play that card if you beat ND 52-7.

FreddieMercuryHayes

September 19th, 2016 at 2:25 PM ^

Colorado is going to be the Chaos Team of the Pac-12 I think. Except with better defense than Indiana? If their starting QB gets healthy that is. Their the type of team I wouldn't touch betting. PSU is much thoroughly mediocre, yet also more consistent on a down to down basis.




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MayOhioEatTurds

September 19th, 2016 at 3:01 PM ^

CU lost not only their QB (indefinitely, ankle sprain, will play once able) but also its starting OLB (torn ACL, out for season) and starting kicker (torn achilles, out for season).

I was hoping they would become the team of chaos, thereby further burnishing Michigan's recent win.  But under the present circumstances, they have problems. 

ijohnb

September 19th, 2016 at 2:39 PM ^

than impressive?  Michigan State told Notre Dame they were going to run it, sent a notarized affidavit over to their sideline again confirming they were going to run it, and then ran it down their throat all night long.  Yeah, ND clawed back when MSU mailed it in, but unimpressive?  Huh.

In reply to by ijohnb

FreddieMercuryHayes

September 19th, 2016 at 3:03 PM ^

MSU looked great early, but when you win by one score, you didn't mail it in. This wasn't ND putting 10 points up in the last four minutes. They did they thing they should have done from the beginning of, which was air it out against the weakness of State. That and not commit stupid TOs. Also MSU recovered two fumbles which usually is a stat that will regress to the mean and has a huge impact on the game. That said, MSU did what they usually do under Dantonio: come up big in big games.




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ijohnb

September 19th, 2016 at 3:13 PM ^

were up 29 points.  They just sat back and kept everything in front of them and forced ND to use time to score.  It was the ultimate prevent defense because even if they did mount a furious comeback (check) they were ultimately going to run out of time.  I think Mitch D'ortono knew he had a young team wih the lead on the road and just needed the win, even if it was not a "big win" in terms of the final score.  I did not read too much into that fourth quarter except what we already knew which is that the secondary is the relative weakness of the team, even if they were playing way off the receivers.

Now, as for the ND strategy for 2.5 quarters of "running right into the teeth of the MSU defense while ignoring said weakness," yeah, that was not well played.

In reply to by ijohnb

Franz Schubert

September 19th, 2016 at 5:02 PM ^

Good? They lost to Texas. The ND defense is terrible and their fans have been calling for the coordinators job for awhile.

PeterKlima

September 19th, 2016 at 5:22 PM ^

ND's ofense did fine against State.  NOt many overall rushing yards, but not many overall rushing plays.  ND gained 6.5 yards per play on MSU.  The ND offense is alright.

 

Their defense on the other hand has proven to be weak so far this year and is decimated with injuries.  I think the rational ND fans know this is partly due to injuries, so not sure any coach is going anywhere....

In reply to by ijohnb

PeterKlima

September 19th, 2016 at 5:22 PM ^

MSU kept blitzing.  In fact, since ND was airing it out more, MSU seemed to blitz more often.  They rarely go to the QB.  Also, guys were open downfield.

 

It was not a prevent defense by any stretch, but I can see why you would just assume something like that:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gv6IpuEWCbc

 

In reply to by PeterKlima

ijohnb

September 20th, 2016 at 9:55 AM ^

they didn't.  I just watched the entire fourth quarter. They brought only four on nearly every play and had five DBs in the game almost the entire time and blitzed I think two times total. 

In reply to by ijohnb

PeterKlima

September 20th, 2016 at 12:03 PM ^

Having 5 Dbs makes sense when ND is passing each down (which ND switched over to lots of multiple receiver sets).  Also, MSU continued to blitz at least a handful of times and couldn't get to Kizer. 

They didn't go into a "prevent" defense by playing soft coverage.

The Maizer

September 19th, 2016 at 3:20 PM ^

I think this is on point. I didn't understand the argument that MSU "let off the gas" offensively. The thing that worked best for them in the first half was running up the gut. Letting off the gas implies going to a conservative game plan. What is more conservative than running between the tackles? I think it was more Notre Dame finally made defensive adjustments when they realized MSU was not trying to take advantage of their weak secondary.

Having said that, I was impressed with MSU's run game before those adjustments.

In reply to by ijohnb

Boner Stabone

September 19th, 2016 at 3:33 PM ^

The same Notre Dame team that let Texas run all over them and they same Texas team that lost to a less than mediocre Cal team over the weekend.  This just in Notre Dame and Texas are not that good.

In reply to by ijohnb

reshp1

September 19th, 2016 at 4:00 PM ^

Eh, maybe Furman was just the normal slow start Sparty is known for, but taken on a whole, the team looks pretty flawed. ND didn't exploit those flaws until they did, at which point they came roaring back. The running game against ND certainly made them look more dangerous, but jury is out if ND just sucks at run D. We'll find out more this week I guess. Wisconsin seems at least decent against the run. 

ijohnb

September 19th, 2016 at 2:44 PM ^

think they are going to win comfortably.  Wisconsin is a difficult team to just run up the gut against, so I think O'Conner will be asked to do a little more this week.  ND was overrated and had a terrible game plan, there can be no question about that but State embarrased them.  It was an impressive win.

EGD

September 19th, 2016 at 2:26 PM ^

I think MSU by 6 seems about right. Down-to-down I think the teams are pretty well-matched, so I see it coming down to turnovers and I don't trust that Wisconsin QB.

Toasted Yosties

September 19th, 2016 at 2:32 PM ^

I think Wisconsin's lackluster performance was on account to them spending the week prepping for MSU. That said, I think State takes care of business. They looked impressive on Saturday in spite of letting off the gas too early.

1464

September 19th, 2016 at 2:38 PM ^

I think we blow out PSU.  

Also, a gentle reminder to turn your back when PSU takes the field.  We have to spread this.  Those fuckwads honored the enabler of a prolific child rapist.  It's not funny.  It's not faux outrage.  It's a systemic problem at that university.  I'm getting this quote wrong but someone like the dean of communications PUBLICLY offered this suggestion "As we commemorate the anniversary of our beloved shitstick of a former coach, understand that there will be controversy.  Those who believe Paterno did wrong will never understand.  Forget them."

Their administration is a piece of shit to organize the commemoration.  Guarantee they try to bring back the statue.

Their fans are pieces of shit.  They hold candlelight vigils for Paterno after home games.  Fuck em all.

Their players are pieces of shit.  They commit to play for a school tainted by a child rapist.

They need to be shunned.  OSU, MSU, and ND are rivals.  Show them respect.  PSU is garbage and deserves nothing but public ridicule.

(Caveat inserted about something something over-generalizations are bad...)

ijohnb

September 19th, 2016 at 2:56 PM ^

is the caveat.  Easy on the current players.  Many of them are accepting offers to the most established program that offers them and a program with abundant resources devoted to football.  Penn State players haven't done anything wrong and most of them were not even born when Paterno was at his peak.  They did not organize any tribute.  They mostly suck at football but I don't think they need to be included in the outrage.

In reply to by ijohnb

PeterKlima

September 19th, 2016 at 3:09 PM ^

JoePa knew. Some in PSU community doing a disservice by trying to change the public opinion of JoePa.  But, we should all just let it go. 

They are not going to make it go away.  This will always be horrible.  It, however, has nothing to do with these kids or the team.