UM vs OSU Talent
I'm intrigued by a few of the posters on the interview with Michael Citro who noted or didn't like that OSU fans seem to have the opinion that UM has inferior talent team-wide than the Buckeyes. From your view, how do you think UM and OSU stack up to each other by position group? My thoughts:
QB = OSU>UM (Even with any perceived weaknesses, Braxton is above any UM QB by a comfortable margin)
RB = OSU>UM (Elliott, Dunn, and Smith have all played well when they've had snaps. UM's OL may have held back the RBs last year, but at this point I can't say I'd take any of UM's backs over those 3)
OL = OSU>UM (After watching UM's OL this spring, I'll take OSU's even with the new starters)
WR = wash (A number of OSU fans will argue this, but our talent is young and unproven. Until they do it on the field I can't say they are better. I'll say Smith/Wilson = Funchess for now. After him UM is also unproven, but talented and athletic as well)
DL = OSU>>>UM (OSU has one of the top 2 or 3 DLs in the nation)
*LB = UM>OSU *Edited after good counter arguments* (With pre-injury Ryan, I would've said advantage UM. But he wasn't quite the same after coming back last year and until he shows that he's fully back, I can't give him a demonstrative edge. I also don't like the move to the middle. Perry will be entering his third year as a starter and he was solid last year for OSU. After that, I consider both teams to be lacking in star power for now)
*CB = UM>OSU *Edited after good counter arguments* (I was tempted to give OSU the edge because I think Grant is better than any corner UM has, but that is arguable. OSU has a lot of young talent and size, but it's unproven. From an outsider's perspective, it seems UM has played multiple guys with almost the same results year after year and none of their names stick out to me)
S = OSU > UM (I think OSU has more pure talent, but the lack of experience is notable. Powell was solid as a starter last year and brings elite size and good athleticism. Bell was good in his first start as a true freshman and the coaches seem to love him. Burrows is a ridiculous athlete and Tanner is a solid veteran as backups. UM seems to only have 1 identified starting safety for now. What is going on with Thomas? Peppers seems like a good bet, but who knows until he gets on campus)
Specialists = OSU>UM (Cameron Johnston was one of the better punters in the country last year. I expect him to be in All-American consideration as a sophomore. Hagerup is back after being held out a year, but never wowed me. Both teams are replacing starting kickers. Wile has some experience and is 5/8 on FGs. Due to that, he gets a slight edge over our freshman Nuernberger)
LB could easily swing UM's way once the season starts. WR could as well. I think CB easily swings OSU's way unless Peppers ends up playing a CB and lives up to his talent right away.
Feel free to rip it apart, but please give me justifications. I'm trying to get a clear, unbiased view of the two rosters and you all are obviously more knowledgeable about UM's than I am.
I can't really argue with this, and that's why I'm going to slip a little whiskey into the coffee now...
I can certainly argue against the QB comparison, and I'm not sure it is close. I think our starter and backup are better than theirs. Gardner attempted to play football without an offensive line. This is a big negative for his decision making abilities, because what QB would voluntarily take the field without an actual OL to protect them? In fact, Devin attempted to be a QB without an OL OR a run game. Which, someone check his wrists...
I think that Devin is both a better QB right now, and a better pro. And their QB ranks are pretty thin after Braxton, who acts like he is dying every time he was touched. Devin actually was dying, as it turns out, and I think Shane will be servicable.
I won't argue many of the other points, but:
QB: UM > OSU
IMHO, Gardner needs to prove it on the field before I put him ahead of Miller. I suppose it comes down to Performance vs Potential. The potential is there, now let's see it translate.
I'd love to see how Devin would do with OSU's O-line and run game last year. I'd wager $1 that he would be better that Braxton in almost every way.
You can put Tom Brady on the football field, and if his OL consists of you, me, a koala, and a cardboard cutout of Captain Morgan, he is not going to put up yardage.
I'm reasonably sure that at one point last year, I saw some form of marsupial wearing a Michigan helmet...
Gardner has already proved to me that he is the best QB in the B1G. I don't consider myself an avid homer, either. He was rushed, abused, and shaken all last year. But his offseason hype, and the glimpses of his talent that we saw made me wonder if we wouldn't have been talking about him as an all-time Michigan great if not for that damned koala.
The rap on Miller since his freshman year has been on his arm accuracy and decision-making. Many of the criticisms that have been leveled at Devin has also been said of Braxton. I've seen nothing to suggest that he's made amazing strides in any of the areas in question. If he had, he'd had been in the draft last week.
I think Miller benefits from a stronger supporting cast than Gardner, but talent for talent, suggesting that Braxton Miller is hands down obviously the better player is not a certainty, and I think you could make the case that Michigan's overall QB corps is stronger than OSU's.
I've been wanting an excuse to downvote Buckeye stuff for a while now, but I don't get the opportunity often enough. Now I have one.
I take back what I said about not arguing the other positions. Michigan is much stronger at CB than OSU. Name one CB on your team that you would not trade straight up for Jabrill Peppers.
???
Okay. He MAY be our nickel guy at the start of the season. He is going to Woodson the shit out of your football team, as you won't play him until he's basically a sophomore.
I think Gardner has slightly better passing talent, but makes worse decisions. His interception numbers show that. Running-wise, Braxton has a much bigger gap in talent. He is one of the most dangerous open field runners in college football. I do agree with you that Gardner may be a better pro prospect, though, as Braxton is more talented for the college game, but doesn't translate as well to the NFL.
Passing is a little easier when your average rush goes for over 5 yards. His decision-making is: leisurely look around for the wide open guy, throw it in general direction.
Braxton in Michigan's offense last year would've generated a QB controversy the likes of which have never been seen.
Really? You think that had Braxton been UM's QB last year, people would have been clamoring for Morris to replace him? We are talking about the same two-time reigning offensive player in the B1G, correct? And you think UM fans would want an unproven true freshman QB over him? Interesting.
point to be made that had Miller been UM's QB he would not have been the 2 time B1G O POTY.
Fair enough but an equally valid point would be that there is no guarantee that Gardner would have won two POTY awards had he been OSU's QB. And there is certainly not enough evidence that Morris would have won a POTY at OSU's helm. Which brings me back to my original argument that I think it is ridiculous that UM fans would rather have had Morris over Miller last year.
on point here. The poster said if Miller was UM's QB last year there'd have been a QB controversy (I'll pass on the exaggerated level of the hypothetical controversy). Gardner was UM's QB last year and there were many fans who wanted Morris. I can't imagine Miller would have been demonstratively better than Gardner with last year's shit show of an offensive "scheme" so there probably would have been fans clamoring for Morris over Miller.
Edit: was definitely missing the point.
How 'bout them Tigers?
Thanks for being patient - I'm with ya now. If some UM fans were clamoring for Morris over DG last year then those same fans would have been clamoring for Morris over Miller. While I do believe that Miller's running ability would have allowed him to mitigate some of the deficiancies caused by the OL, there is no way in hell he would have finished half of the games DG did. To me, it is crazy though that some fans watched DG all year and thought that anyone else on the roster could have done better.
are giving your o-line and run game far too little credit where your QB play is concerned. I mean, look back for a moment and tell me what that nobody back-up qb did while Miller was out? If I'm not mistaken he put up even better numbers than Miller usually did. Miller is a product of what was in front of and to the side of him (just so I don't lose you I mean his o-line and Carlos Hyde).
I really honestly would bet a good deal of money that had DG been in that circumstance last year he would have put up equal to or better numbers than Miller. I think people forget just how well he performed when he took over for DR. If given even a little time and mediocre run game, he can be lethal.
I am not discrediting the fact that ANY QB, including Miller, will be able to throw the ball much better when he has time in the pocket and has an offense that can line up and run the ball down the defense's throat. And there is also no doubt, nor have I argued to the contrary, that DG would put up better passing numbers than Miller in OSU's offense - just as Kenny Guiton did (and, BTW, Kenny Guiton is by faaaaaar and away not a "nobody back-up." He could have started for most B1G teams and was invited to the Bills training camp). But I am also not quick to say that Miller is just a product of what's around him. He made quite a few reads and throws last year that have shown that he can make some pretty darn good plays with his arm as well. He was also quite effective his freshman year given those clusterf*ck circumstances. DG may be able to step into OSU's system and be as productive as Miller but that doesn't mean any QB can.
There's no guarantee or evidence for any of this - comparing two QBs like this is pure speculation. The 'controversy' comment was hyperbole (not sure how that wasn't obvious to you), though based in the reality that QB controversies seem to happen regardless of logic. You said: "and you think UM fans would want an unproven true freshman QB over him? Interesting." -Yeah, I find it interesting too, because something not too far from that actually happened last year.
The point is that I think Gardner has more talent than Miller - that sporting one of the best run offenses in the country makes stats and awards quite a bit easier to achieve. I didn't see a counter to that argument.
I misunderstood your original comment. I didn't realize that some UM fans were actually calling for a change at QB. I have to admit that I actually found myself rooting for DG towards the end of the season because I admired what he was able to do given the circumstances. So the fact that some people think that a guy who is much more of a dropback passer than Gardner is would have been a better option is kinda crazy to me. Do I think Braxton could have done better than DG last year? I don't think he would have been able to finish every game like DG did that's for sure. I think Braxton has an uncanny ability to make plays with his feet which would have been useful given UM's line situation last year but I would not say that he would have been any more productive than DG. Ultimately, I don't think the group hailing for a QB change would have been any larger had Braxton been back there.
Miller is perfect for Meyer's scheme (or Meyer tweaked his scheme a little to perfectly match Miller). I think Gardner would be comparable to Miller in Meyer's scheme as well. The crux of this tangent we've all been on is not even hey zeus could have done a thing in Borges' clusterfuck last year.
With DG, Meyer would tweak his scheme to likely focus a bit more on the pass, while utilzing a longer-striding runner for attacking the edges off of inside run action as well as more run/pass options, where as Miller can attacking more between the tackles as well as stretch the field horizontally.
Miller is much closer to Denard, whereas DG is closer to some of the other QBs Meyer has had over his coaching career.
I can't be the only one chortling to myself each time you type Kenny G....
Makes sense - I somehow missed that you are an OSU fan and thereby assumed you knew about it. +1 for ya.
Would we want Braxton over Gardner? Not in the offense Al Borges ran - no. Urban Meyer is a pure system coach. He turned Alex Smith, Tim Tebow, Chris Leak, and Braxton Miller all into undefeated QB's. Braxton is great in his offense at OSU. If you want to make a fair comparison, let's look at what do you think Braxton Miller would've produced in our offense a year ago?
I can tell you it would've been like Braxton Miller's freshman year... running around, missing receivers, getting sacked, and most notably he would've missed MULTIPLE games behind our offensive line. Turn that around, how would DG have done in OSU's offense? I don't think there would have been much difference.
It's not hard to complete screen passes and the wide open combo routes that OSU runs, especially off playaction when your RB averages 6 YPC. Now do I think the B1G Offensive POY is bad? No, I don't. I'm not even saying DG is better than Braxton Miller. I'm saying that Braxton would've been battered in our 2013 offense, and I prefer DG to Braxton in our offense - both last year and this year.
Have you watched him play? Borges would have made a disaster out of Braxton's pretty poor arm.
I really think that Gardner will be a better Pro than Braxton. Although Braxton is more dynamic on his feet, I believe that Gardner is the better passer. Gardner has a propensity for making timely errors, but he is the better passer. Braxton reminds me a little bit of Denard in his ability to run the ball, but he is a very inconsistent passer.
Put Braxton Miller in a Borges offense and see what happens.
This conversation is about college-level play, not NFL-level. How many data points do we have to have before people stop using the NFL draft as a proxy for the ability to win at the college level?
The topic is "talent". I think NFL draft status is a decent enough metric for talent.
Talent for making plays in college systems is not equivalent enough to the assessment of talent for the NFL draft, for the latter to be a proxy. Close, but not close enough.
Jeremy Gallon was drafted in the seventh round. Your argument is invalid.
decent enough ≠ infalliable
Chad Henne was a far better NFL prospect than Troy Smith. How did that work out?
Look a year ago Devin looked like a far better prospect for the NFL due to his tools and the hype out of summer camps. Now - his glow has dampened - it just has. He has a lot to prove this year to be in the NFL.
Last year he looked like a guy who ran well, but focused almost solely on 1 target and threw to that guy through thick or thin. His presnap ability to read defenses is in question. His accuracy is not NFL level right now. He showed a lot of toughness. And his OL was horrid. He is no sure thing as a NFL prospect at this point. Either is Miller and Miller has holes too in his game but going back to point 1, there are plenty of great college QBs whose games don't translate to the NFL and vice versa.
Vince Young does everything better than Devin with a very similar game and was a near complete bomb in the NFL - maybe due to maturity issues, but along a similar vein Terrelle Pryor - again with similar skill set - is basically a journeyman in the league and at this point in his college career had done more than Devin. Cook and Hackenberg are the 2 serious pro QBs in this league - Miller and Devin have major questions; Devin's main advantage is NFL QB size over Miller.
These are all valid points, but I think this all overlooks the fact that Devin was really a first-year starter last year, while Braxton Miller has three seasons of experience under his belt. Your (fair) criticisms of Gardner, especially Gardner's tendency to not go through his progressions, are accurate. But things like working through progressions, accuracy, and reading defenses are precisely the sorts of things that come with experience as a starting QB.
I think Gardner will make a leap in performance this year, based on his maturation, his late-season performance (OSU in particular), and working with a Nussmeier offense and an OL coached to a simplified system.
And I agree, but I don't think you even have to go that far.
Miller also had the benefit of having probably the best RB in college football, and worked behind a 2nd rd OT, a 5th rd OC, and two other OL that were picked up by NFL squads immediately after the draft. On top of that, the one that didn't leave will be playing in the NFL soon enough more than likely. Their OL last year was stacked across the board.
I think when you look at what Kenny G did when he came in (and the fact that some OSU fans preferred him), you see the weaknesses of Miller's game and the benefit both QBs had with the surrounding talent, much of which is now gone, that OSU had last year.
when you just spent your pre-snap thinking "oh God, not again. which of the front seven are going to kill me this time ...", and then have that seven come at you so fast you don't have time to go through progressions.
It looked to me like Gardner (for the most part) did not have the flexibility in Borges' system to make checks at the line: just line up and say "for those about to die, we salute you!" and hope the called play works.
Meanwhile, Miller had play changes signaled in from Urban once the defense lined up every play.
This is where I hope Nuss' system helps Gardner: it gives him a set of contingencies off the base line up so Gardner can read a defense and check a play pre-snap. (It would have made all the difference at Penn State.)
So what your saying is, Michigan should work higher tempo and huddle less, giving themselves more time at the line of scrimmage to assess the defense and adjust before having to snap the ball. Here, here.
Somewhere, Hoke just threw up in his mouth a little.
I don't disagree - it was essentially his first year. He should improve this year. That said, I didn't think Gardner progressed WITHIN the year like you saw with Cook or Hackenberg. Granted he was probably shell shocked (I would be!) behind that OL.
From my untrained eye they told Gardner at some point mid season to protect the ball above everything else and he went from a gunslinger type the first 4-6 games (with tons of INTs and fumbles) to a guy who didn't take almost any chances outside of the Indiana game...and OSU where we saw some of that ND Devin.
Right after that ND game Devin looked like Vince Young-lite. We were all excited. That type of talent can carry a team on its back. It hid the OL issues that had began to surface (hidden vs CMU for some reason...) Then the rest of the year unfolded. Unfortunately for him, not sure he is going to get the chance to truly have the luxuries most CFB QBs get with the youth of the OL this year either.
But larger point - to be a QB in the league you need to be accurate to a degree. Devin lacks that right now. 60% in the NCAA is not great.... when the windows become way tighter at the next level. Hopefully that jumps to mid 60%s next year... Pryor was 60, 56, and 65% his 3 years, has sat for 2 years for Oakland, got in last year ...threw a 57% completion rate and was promptly shown the door... now off to Seattle. (Miller was 63.5% for comparison behind a far better line...and no they were not all 5 yard screens like some people are making it out to be, he averaged 8.2 yards per attempt...Devin's was 8.6).
Comparison in senior years:
Bortles 68%ish, Bridgewater 71%ish, Russell Wilson (a guy Devin is a taller version of) 72%.
Devin needs a serious jump in his passing game to be in the NFL - aside from Vick who is an elite runner, you can't be a running QB in the league for long...hello RG3.
agree. im still not totally clear whether borges allowed gardner to own the O with full freedom to check at the line or whether borges hamstrung him. either way his presnap skills were pathetic or just bad, depending how much blame borges shares. couple that with awful OL and no identity on O and its a mess just about anywhere. dudes got a ton of talent and even more potential still but id take miller under meyers tutelage in his O any day...meyer just get its, he shifts the scheme to fit his players and understands QBs dominate the game like no other.
and i pretty much agree across the board regarding osu talent > um talent. the only arguments could potentially be QB, WR, LB, DB and im not sure id support many in ums favor prior to the season
I don't know the OSU roster. However, if the talent is better on defense as you suggest, the results didn't show it last year. My opinion is Michigan's defense will be better this year than last.
Per NCAA.com for 2013:
Total Defense
Michigan 14
OSU 34
Passing Yards Allowed:
Michigan 66
OSU 110
Rushing Yards Allowed:
Michigan 29
OSU 9
I'll take Michigan's defense over the OSU defense every time.
But I'm confident our defensive coaching is significantly better.