UM vs. Colorado S&P+ Five Factors Matchup

Submitted by Ecky Pting on

Here's a quick table I ginned up to compare the Bill Connelly's Five Factors metrics between UM & Colorado. It's a bit busy, but what you see are columns of raw metrics for both offenses and defenses. The Category of the given metric is given in the two columns at the left. To th right of the team offense and defense metrics are the National Averages for that category.  The last two columns are where the rubber meets the road...

The "M Offense vs. CU Defense" column averages those two metrics to gauge the performance of the UM offense against the CU defense. Likewise, the "CU Offense vs. M Defense" averages the other two to gauge the performance of the CU Offense. Then, the column with the greater aggregate number has the competitive advantage...EXCEPT, in the three categories with asterisks: "Stuff Rate", "SD Sack Rate" and "PD Sack Rate", which are contra-metrics that gauge the offense's ability to avoid the given categorical description.

I hope this makes some sense - if so, I may continue this in some fashion in the future.

Anyway, the numbers showing the advantage are in bold, and so it can be observed that the M offense has the advantage in all but one of the Five Factors: Efficiency; and all but three sub-categories, those being Rushing IsoPPP (rushing explosiveness), Passing Success Rate (making better than necessary yards through the air) and PD Line Yards per Carry (bonus yards gained by running on passing downs...a.k.a. breaking contain!). Clearly, gap integrity is going to be an important discipline for Wolverines success against the Buffs. BTW, Turnover Luck is not included as a factor here, but UM is ahead in that as well.

  Michigan Colorado      
FIVE FACTORS
(less T/O Luck)		 Off. Def. Off. Def. Nat'l Avg. M.Off v
CU.Def 		 CU.Off v
M.Def
1) EXPLOSIVENESS
IsoPPP 		 1.44 0.92 1.23 0.93 1.26 1.19 1.08
2) EFFICIENCY
Success Rate 		 50.8% 10.5% 61.3% 18.8% 40.2% 34.8% 35.9%
3) FIELD POSITION
Avg. FP 		 39.3 25.3 35.2 26.9 30.1 33.10 30.25
4) FINISHING DRIVES
Pts. Per Trip in 40		 6.71 1.55 5.56 4.67 4.65 5.69 3.56
RUSHING              
Rushing Success Rate  48.4% 10.5% 62.8% 35.3% 41.0% 41.9% 36.7%
Rushing IsoPPP  1.08 1.68 0.73 0.97 1.08 1.03 1.21
Opportunity Rate  42.3% 33.3% 40.9% 43.5% 39.7% 42.9% 37.1%
Power Success Rate  87.5% 66.7% 77.3% 100.0% 69.0% 93.8% 72.0%
Stuff Rate* 11.5% 30.3% 13.9% 6.5% 18.6% 9.0% 22.1%
PASSING              
Passing Success Rate  53.3% 10.5% 59.4% 9.7% 40.2% 31.5% 35.0%
Passing IsoPPP  1.76 0.15 1.93 0.85 1.48 1.31 1.04
STANDARD DOWNS              
SD Success Rate  51.1% 11.1% 65.6% 30.8% 45.8% 41.0% 38.4%
SD IsoPPP  1.25 0.51 1.15 0.75 1.11 1.00 0.83
SD Line Yards/Carry  3.56 0.40 3.72 3.68 2.96 3.62 2.06
SD Sack Rate* 5.0% 28.6% 4.2% 0.0% 4.7% 2.5% 16.4%
PASSING DOWNS              
PD Success Rate  50.0% 10.0% 36.4% 4.6% 30.3% 27.3% 23.2%
PD IsoPPP  2.07 1.32 2.05 2.37 1.74 2.22 1.69
PD Line Yds/Carry  1.18 1.61 3.50 3.75 3.40 2.47 2.56
PD Sack Rate 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% 6.2% 8.0% 3.1% 8.4%

 

MGoBoard
Football
S%26P+; Bill Connelly; Football Outsiders; Advanced Stats; Matchup; Colorado

LSAClassOf2000

September 16th, 2016 at 5:57 PM ^

For the reference of those who might be unfamiliar with the firve factors and how Connelly defined them, that piece is here - LINK

From the efficiency section:

"A five percent difference in success rate raises your chances of winning a game to about 75 percent, which is crazy if you think about it. That's one of 20 plays. If you are successful in nine of every 20 plays, and your opponent is successful in eight, you are going to win at least two-thirds to three-quarters of the time. Every efficient play is a big deal, even when you've got big-play ability to bail you out."

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130561

UMProud

September 16th, 2016 at 7:38 PM ^

Thanks for doing this I do enjoy metrics although my brain doesn't process data well when I'm not being paid for it.

That being said what is the sampling for this data did I miss it?  Is this the first 2 games of the year, the 2015 season or a last # of games?

Joined: 12/18/2014

MGoPoints: 2705

MTH1993

September 16th, 2016 at 9:36 PM ^

This is really impressive work. I am still trying to digest it.

For the futureI am looking for how we measure the sound of the hitting. It is critical that whoever measures the it will be banned from wearing a head set.  

Joined: 06/07/2015

MGoPoints: 681

Wolfman

September 16th, 2016 at 9:45 PM ^

I have come up with a 19% chance of a CU victory. Usually falls within 3 percentage points either way so a 6% error rate is probably not that good. 

For CU to win, they would have to have a tremendous start that provides them early momentum and if UM were to struggle, they - CU - would have to be within 17 pts at the end of third quarter to have a realistic chance of victory. 

However, don't discount the Harbaugh factor. This has not shown up on any pre-game prognostications that I've seen. I could not believe he was still not over a game that took place in the 1980s. He obviously holds a grudge a long time, and judging by Jehu's return he definitely had UM in the right mind set at the start of the game. This is where he most glaringly differs from the last great Michigan coach. Hell, oft times it would take Carr two games to get the team ready for the season. Jimbo? He looks at every game like the opposition is fighting for the last slice of bread. For mere mortal coaches, this is a hell of an obstacle to overcome.

So if you want to place a bet around UM 44 - UC 17-21, I think you should be happy with the outcome. 

Joined: 07/23/2008

MGoPoints: 8259