UM still alive for Big 10 title game
According to Big 10 Network, Michigan very much alive for the title game if they win out.
http://detroitsportsnation.com/college-sports/ddrysdale/big-ten-tiebrea…
October 20th, 2015 at 5:11 PM ^
A 2 loss Michigan will not leapfrog a 1 loss MSU or OSU in the CFP Poll.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:17 PM ^
It could happen depnding on the margin of victory, i.e., if OSU destroys MSU a la 2014 BTT game v. Wisc, and Michigan does the same to OSU. But the more plausible scenario for us is if MSU drops one to any of IND/NEB/PSU, since they'll have a hard time winning in Columbus. If MSU drops one to any of those 3 teams, then we control our own destony again.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:27 PM ^
Agreed. A 2-loss Sparty team is more likely than leap-frogging both 1-loss rivals. Hopefully, it'll come down to The Game and UM in control of its destiny.
October 21st, 2015 at 12:05 PM ^
2007 Season = 2-Loss LSU goes to BCS NCG and wins.
It can happen.
Besides, the CFP Commitee is literally a group of people who all sit down together and discuss, at length, together (i.e. not blind polling and averaging) who should be ranked, and where, and why. They even have people who are not exactly football "experts", and thus, don't have the biases that specialized experts often have, a la "a win is a win"-blind-moralistic-football-goggles. Because clearly "a win (isn't) a win", it clearly matters "how". I guarantee a group of rational people who sat together and discussed whether or not MSU truly "beat" UM would come to the conclusion, that either a "no" or a "well, not really", or "sort of" at best. If Michigan runs the table, and OSU beats MSU, then they would have no problem saying "overall" UM has looked like a better team, or possibly OSU, even if OSU loses to Michigan but destroy the rest of the pack (e.g. MSU, etc.), because, again in depends on "how" you lose, and "how" you win.
From a whole number stand point, UM has 2 losses, but from a human analysis (infinitely more precise and rational), UM has 1.000001 losses.
Again, it can happen, and already has (see above!).
October 21st, 2015 at 2:29 PM ^
A lot of people have been bringing 2007 LSU up, but not sure how many have gone back to look at the season.
After the conference championship games, there was only one unbeaten team - Hawaii. There were only 2 one loss teams - OSU and Kansas. Kansas lost to Missouir in the regular season finale to drop to 8th in the rankings.
So It wasn't like LSU was ranked ahead of a bunch of undefeated and one loss teams. In addition, they had been ranked #1 or close to #1 in the BCS rankings for most of the year.
October 20th, 2015 at 6:10 PM ^
And probably our only bet. If OSU is undefeated when they play us, they'll be #1 or thereabouts. Even if we beat them and Utah is still undefeated, it would be tough to jump them. I'd say cheer for the Hoosiers this week.
October 20th, 2015 at 6:32 PM ^
This is about the B10 title game. If the above were to happen, and we beat OSU, then we would be in the title game by default. Right?
October 20th, 2015 at 6:41 PM ^
Yes. OP has B1G title game in header. MSU has to lose 2. We need to win out.
October 20th, 2015 at 7:11 PM ^
Yeah, I really don't get everyone talking about the playoff down below. That isn't what this scenario is even about.
October 20th, 2015 at 7:37 PM ^
I saw this thread title and thought, 'Well, yeah, of course ya dopes!' As long as Sparty has two games left and we haven't lost again...that's how it works.
October 21st, 2015 at 3:36 AM ^
1 in Lincoln and 2 in Columbus!
October 21st, 2015 at 9:37 AM ^
we dont need to jump them. we merely have to be within 1 spot of them in the final CFP poll and then it goes to head to head which we won.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:19 PM ^
Could leap MSU. Don't need to leap OSU, just need to be within one (e.g. OSU #7, mich #8)
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October 20th, 2015 at 5:27 PM ^
...Michigan in the B1G title game higher or lower than 0.2%? Need to know so I can put it in perspective against some other stuff I saw this week.
October 20th, 2015 at 10:38 PM ^
Also, I would like to know what "women who would sleep with me" look like on the 0.2% (good) end of the bell curve.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:29 PM ^
Given the timing of the losses Michigan would could win out and jump both of them in the next month.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:56 PM ^
Yep. Better to lose early. For the loser of MSU/OSU it's too late to make up much ground. Especially if it's a dominant game for one side.
October 20th, 2015 at 10:25 PM ^
If OSU rolls Sparty, and we win against OSU, there is a shot.
October 21st, 2015 at 9:47 AM ^
and that is that Michigan isn't good enough. Sure they are better than last year, and they can " almost win" at home against a above average team, but they are a long way from being able to compete with OSU. Nobody outside of UM dreamers sees a team that's worthy. Cause they are not.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:12 PM ^
I think we do make it to Indy if we win out, even if State only loses to OSU. The CFP really weights SOS, plus their losing late in the season and us having momentum (which helped OSU last year), plus the flukey way our loss to MSU occured. I think we'd be ranked at least one spot above OSU, and given our winning the head-to-head, we would go to the championship game and handle Iowa.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:26 PM ^
Huh? I thought it was discussed here a couple days ago that a 1-loss MSU would edge us out, regardless of ranking? Isn't the first tiebreaker in a 3-way 7-1 conference W/L scenario the overall records?
October 20th, 2015 at 5:30 PM ^
No, it's not. That's the entire point of the link in OP's post. Tiebreaker is playoff rank.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:52 PM ^
I could've sworn the thread the other day said basically that the first tie-breaker is overall record. Is the B1G website out of date?
October 20th, 2015 at 6:01 PM ^
The wording on the B1G website is "The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other."
While it sounds like it means the overall records will be compared, I think it actually means the three tying teams records against each other would be compared. For example., If we win out, we would be 1-1 against MSU and OSU.
October 20th, 2015 at 6:51 PM ^
Overall record is the 6th tiebreaker and wouldn't come into play for the three 1-loss-in-conference B1G teams. The 5th tiebreaker is what applies which is the College Playoff Committee ranking. However the way I read it, we need to be ranked TWO spots above MSU or OSU in the ranking in order for the rule to apply, not just one.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:30 PM ^
There is a zero percent chance a 2 loss Michigan is ranked higher than a 1 loss msu who beat michigan at michigan and if it did happen it would be stupid. Michigan would have one win over a ranked team most likely, maybe 2 if byu stays ranked, how is that a good strenght of schedule?
October 20th, 2015 at 5:38 PM ^
Why. MSU loses bad to osu and fall back to 12-15ish We win out and we will be top 10 easy and ranked ahead of OSU.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:38 PM ^
I'd go 1% based on current events, but you are correct sir.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:48 PM ^
according to most statistical models, UM has atleast top 25 SOS rn. Utah, BYU, and MSU are obviously the best teams there, NW doesn't look so good anymore and they might hurt the SOS the more they lose. However, playing potential 4 ranked teams and going 2-2 is better than playing 2 top 25 teams and going 1-1 simply by playing more top 25 teams.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:56 PM ^
There's at least one case, every year, of a team with more losses outranking a team with less losses. We would finish 2-2 against top 25 teams. The losses would be game 1 against top ten Utah and on a freak play to top fifteen MSU. Outside of those games we have dominated weaker competition. MSU has not. The committee absolutely values that. Our SOS is much better, especially if MSU's only signature win is against us. BYU is a better win than Oregon and we will have beaten OSU. Their losses will have come later in the year. I would put the percent chance of us being ranked highest of the 3, given the outlined scenario, at >50%
October 20th, 2015 at 6:17 PM ^
The AP poll voters didn't really give MSU credit for a win at Mich when they kept them at 7 this week and only dropped Mich three spots. Which means they basically ignored the result of the game given how fluky the actual result was, and that's not stupid because they are ranking the teams based on how good they think the teams are.
I imagine the AP was simply throwing UM a bone this week and that as time passes they (and the CFP committee) will just blindly look at records and results to do their rankings like they tend to do.
BUT the CFP does claim that they watch a lot of film and try to determine the quality of the teams, so it'd be a very interesting scenario if MSU loses to OSU and Mich wins out. Especially if those are convincing results. It'd be hard to argue at that point that Mich isn't the best of the three.
Remember MSU SOS is awful. They'll have only "beaten" one ranked team in Michigan so again, it'll depend how much the CFP voters give them credit for that win (credit they aren't really getting right now from the AP voters).
October 20th, 2015 at 7:45 PM ^
I really, really do kind of want some sort of 'unfair' scenario to place UM ahead of Sparty. It's just too much fun watching 'The Rage of the Disrespected' for this to not play out in this first year of Harbaugh.
October 20th, 2015 at 9:16 PM ^
Like when we went down to the Sugar Bowl and State got some consolation game in orlando, even though we lost in EL that year. Fun times.
October 20th, 2015 at 6:53 PM ^
If OSU handles MSU and we handle OSU, then there may be a very large groundswell to get us to play for the B1G championship in spite of us having the extra loss to Utah.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:13 PM ^
They're morons. It's not happening.
October 20th, 2015 at 6:53 PM ^
You think we can't win out?
October 20th, 2015 at 5:14 PM ^
To win the rest of our games by double digits going into OSU to have a shot. We can't afford to let average teams hang around since we already have two losses.
October 20th, 2015 at 6:21 PM ^
MSU will win their remaining games outside of OSU.
I think it's more likely than not that they lose twice. Dantonio's been playing with fire all season. Self-immolation is eminent.
They lose in Lincoln and Columbus, we win out, we're in
October 20th, 2015 at 5:15 PM ^
the last tiebreaker if all 3 are tied is the playoff rankings. Assuming 3 teams win out except for OSU>MSU and UM > OSU, michigan is a 2 loss team competing wiht 1 loss teams, we'd have to blow out OSU to be ranked above them.
The easier pathway is MSU finally drops a game to a lower big ten team as they have been on the verge of multiple weeks in addition to losing to OSU, while michigan beats OSU for the tiebreaker over them. Neither of which is easy, but it's possible.
Now to forget about this until it actually matters before the OSU game, assuming we can win out until then.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:21 PM ^
We only need to finish one position lower than OSU in the rankings. The tie breaker is as you said except with the caveat that the two higher ranked teams are ranked consecutively. In the scenario where OSU is ranked one position higher than us, it then defaults to heat-to-head, which we would win. While not terribly likely, I'd say this is also certainly not beyond possibility.
October 20th, 2015 at 7:54 PM ^
thought. Much like my earlier post (I didn't think of this when I wrote it) if we could somehow get 'Unfairly' ranked over both MSU AND OSU in the same season! That would be so...utterly entertaining...how crazy it would likely make both fanbases.
October 20th, 2015 at 9:18 PM ^
That would be amazing.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:48 PM ^
I can definitely see them losing at Nebraska, the Huskers are long overdue for an upset win. I just hope we can beat PSU because that's not an easy place to win.
October 20th, 2015 at 6:23 PM ^
with a much worse team, facing a Penn State team that was around the same level as this year's team. I'm pretty confident we'll win 24-9, something like that.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:18 PM ^
If we win out and beat #1 OSU, and OSU beats MSU, our strength of schedule and the flat ass BS way Sparty squeaked out their win, will throw the advantage our way. If anything, OSU might still get in. I don't see it for Sparty if their is a 3 way tie.
And the sparty tears will be as tasty as ever.
October 20th, 2015 at 5:18 PM ^
I like Nebraska over Sparty in Lincoln. If that happens, OSU beats them too, and Michigan runs the table going into The Game, then The winner of The Game would go ton Indy. I don't consider that scenario to be far fetched.
October 20th, 2015 at 6:05 PM ^
I like Nebraska as well. They've been better than their record indicates and I think they might be improving. Could be a good game and Sparty just used ALL of their magic dust.
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