Dawkins

October 20th, 2015 at 5:17 PM ^

It could happen depnding on the margin of victory, i.e., if OSU destroys MSU a la 2014 BTT game v. Wisc, and Michigan does the same to OSU. But the more plausible scenario for us is if MSU drops one to any of IND/NEB/PSU, since they'll have a hard time winning in Columbus. If MSU drops one to any of those 3 teams, then we control our own destony again. 

DairyQueen

October 21st, 2015 at 12:05 PM ^

2007 Season = 2-Loss LSU goes to BCS NCG and wins.

It can happen.

Besides, the CFP Commitee is literally a group of people who all sit down together and discuss, at length, together (i.e. not blind polling and averaging) who should be ranked, and where, and why. They even have people who are not exactly football "experts", and thus, don't have the biases that specialized experts often have, a la "a win is a win"-blind-moralistic-football-goggles. Because clearly "a win (isn't) a win", it clearly matters "how". I guarantee a group of rational people who sat together and discussed whether or not MSU truly "beat" UM would come to the conclusion, that either a "no" or a "well, not really", or "sort of" at best. If Michigan runs the table, and OSU beats MSU, then they would have no problem saying "overall" UM has looked like a better team, or possibly OSU, even if OSU loses to Michigan but destroy the rest of the pack (e.g. MSU, etc.), because, again in depends on "how" you lose, and "how" you win.

From a whole number stand point, UM has 2 losses, but from a human analysis (infinitely more precise and rational), UM has 1.000001 losses.

Again, it can happen, and already has (see above!).

funkywolve

October 21st, 2015 at 2:29 PM ^

A lot of people have been bringing 2007 LSU up, but not sure how many have gone back to look at the season.  

After the conference championship games, there was only one unbeaten team - Hawaii.  There were only 2 one loss teams - OSU and Kansas. Kansas lost to Missouir in the regular season finale to drop to 8th in the rankings.

So It wasn't like LSU was ranked ahead of a bunch of undefeated and one loss teams.  In addition, they had been ranked #1 or close to #1 in the BCS rankings for most of the year.    

 

m_go_T

October 20th, 2015 at 6:10 PM ^

And probably our only bet.  If OSU is undefeated when they play us, they'll be #1 or thereabouts.  Even if we beat them and Utah is still undefeated, it would be tough to jump them.  I'd say cheer for the Hoosiers this week.  

Gofor2

October 21st, 2015 at 9:47 AM ^

and that is that Michigan isn't good enough. Sure they are better than last year, and they can " almost win" at home against a above average team, but they are a long way from being able to compete with OSU. Nobody outside of UM dreamers sees a team that's worthy. Cause they are not.

DrMantisToboggan

October 20th, 2015 at 5:12 PM ^

I think we do make it to Indy if we win out, even if State only loses to OSU. The CFP really weights SOS, plus their losing late in the season and us having momentum (which helped OSU last year), plus the flukey way our loss to MSU occured. I think we'd be ranked at least one spot above OSU, and given our winning the head-to-head, we would go to the championship game and handle Iowa.

codeBLUE11

October 20th, 2015 at 6:01 PM ^

The wording on the B1G website is "The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other."

While it sounds like it means the overall records will be compared, I think it actually means the three tying teams records against each other would be compared. For example., If we win out, we would be 1-1 against MSU and OSU. 

uofmken

October 20th, 2015 at 6:51 PM ^

Overall record is the 6th tiebreaker and wouldn't come into play for the three 1-loss-in-conference B1G teams.  The 5th tiebreaker is what applies which is the College Playoff Committee ranking.  However the way I read it, we need to be ranked TWO spots above MSU or OSU in the ranking in order for the rule to apply, not just one.  

michiganman001

October 20th, 2015 at 5:48 PM ^

according to most statistical models, UM has atleast top 25 SOS rn. Utah, BYU, and MSU are obviously the best teams there, NW doesn't look so good anymore and they might hurt the SOS the more they lose. However, playing potential 4 ranked teams and going 2-2 is better than playing 2 top 25 teams and going 1-1 simply by playing more top 25 teams. 

DrMantisToboggan

October 20th, 2015 at 5:56 PM ^

There's at least one case, every year, of a team with more losses outranking a team with less losses. We would finish 2-2 against top 25 teams. The losses would be game 1 against top ten Utah and on a freak play to top fifteen MSU. Outside of those games we have dominated weaker competition. MSU has not. The committee absolutely values that. Our SOS is much better, especially if MSU's only signature win is against us. BYU is a better win than Oregon and we will have beaten OSU. Their losses will have come later in the year. I would put the percent chance of us being ranked highest of the 3, given the outlined scenario, at >50%

TrueBlue2003

October 20th, 2015 at 6:17 PM ^

The AP poll voters didn't really give MSU credit for a win at Mich when they kept them at 7 this week and only dropped Mich three spots.  Which means they basically ignored the result of the game given how fluky the actual result was, and that's not stupid because they are ranking the teams based on how good they think the teams are.

I imagine the AP was simply throwing UM a bone this week and that as time passes they (and the CFP committee) will just blindly look at records and results to do their rankings like they tend to do.  

BUT the CFP does claim that they watch a lot of film and try to determine the quality of the teams, so it'd be a very interesting scenario if MSU loses to OSU and Mich wins out. Especially if those are convincing results.  It'd be hard to argue at that point that Mich isn't the best of the three.

Remember MSU SOS is awful.  They'll have only "beaten" one ranked team in Michigan so again, it'll depend how much the CFP voters give them credit for that win (credit they aren't really getting right now from the AP voters).

SHub'68

October 20th, 2015 at 7:45 PM ^

I really, really do kind of want some sort of 'unfair' scenario to place UM ahead of Sparty. It's just too much fun watching 'The Rage of the Disrespected' for this to not play out in this first year of Harbaugh.

ThirdVanGundy

October 20th, 2015 at 5:14 PM ^

To win the rest of our games by double digits going into OSU to have a shot. We can't afford to let average teams hang around since we already have two losses.

Newton Gimmick

October 20th, 2015 at 6:21 PM ^

MSU will win their remaining games outside of OSU.

I think it's more likely than not that they lose twice.  Dantonio's been playing with fire all season.  Self-immolation is eminent.

They lose in Lincoln and Columbus, we win out, we're in

akim

October 20th, 2015 at 5:15 PM ^

the last tiebreaker if all 3 are tied is the playoff rankings.  Assuming 3 teams win out except for OSU>MSU and UM > OSU, michigan is a 2 loss team competing wiht 1 loss teams, we'd have to blow out OSU to be ranked above them.

The easier pathway is MSU finally drops a game to a lower big ten team as they have been on the verge of multiple weeks in addition to losing to OSU, while michigan beats OSU for the tiebreaker over them.  Neither of which is easy, but it's possible.

Now to forget about this until it actually matters before the OSU game, assuming we can win out until then.

somewittyname

October 20th, 2015 at 5:21 PM ^

We only need to finish one position lower than OSU in the rankings. The tie breaker is as you said except with the caveat that the two higher ranked teams are ranked consecutively. In the scenario where OSU is ranked one position higher than us, it then defaults to heat-to-head, which we would win. While not terribly likely, I'd say this is also certainly not beyond possibility.

SHub'68

October 20th, 2015 at 7:54 PM ^

thought. Much like my earlier post (I didn't think of this when I wrote it) if we could somehow get 'Unfairly' ranked over both MSU AND OSU in the same season! That would be so...utterly entertaining...how crazy it would likely make both fanbases.

Jevablue

October 20th, 2015 at 5:18 PM ^

If we win out and beat #1 OSU, and OSU beats MSU, our strength of schedule and the flat ass BS way Sparty squeaked out their win, will throw the advantage our way. If anything, OSU might still get in.  I don't see it for Sparty if their is a 3 way tie.

And the sparty tears will be as tasty as ever.

ChalmersE

October 20th, 2015 at 5:18 PM ^

I like Nebraska over Sparty in Lincoln. If that happens, OSU beats them too, and Michigan runs the table going into The Game, then The winner of The Game would go ton Indy. I don't consider that scenario to be far fetched.