UM Hoops - What is "it"
Here I am, 4:50 AM, long work day looming, fast-forward watching the second half of the UM-Wisconsin game until roughly the 5 or 6 minute mark when I really watch-watch it. Michigan has a 6-8 point lead, I don't remember specifically. What I do remember specifically throughout the first half the night before and thus far in the second half, despite the consistent lead and periods of impressive play, I did not believe for one second that Michigan was going to hold on and win that game. Was it the Kohl Center and the Badger team we never beat there? Not really. Was it the actual play on the floor up until that point? I don't think so. Michigan had been superior, by a measurable amount.
I have began to realize that it was not a game-specific feeling, it has been a consistent feeling with Michigan for over a decade. Throughout the dark years, and the really dark years, and the NIT Championship banner years. Spanning the likes of Bullock, Ward, Baston, Blanchard, Horton, Pettway, Robinson Jr., Elerby, Tommy A., now Belien. At that five minute mark, regardless of what transpired before, there seems to be no doubt in my mind that what I am about to witness is 3 to 5 missed three pointers, four unforced turnovers, a multitude of offensive rebounds for the opposition, and then finally a devastating, blink of an eye loss.
Granted, there have been exceptions and moments where I feel the Michigan basketball team "defies the odds" and holds on for one. I was absolutely amazed by the Penn State win, I did not see that coming at all, but overall, why won't or can't Michigan just go get "that" game. So winnable, so painfully winnable. In all actuality, NO excuse for not winning. Is this a virus, a virus spanning players, coaches, equipment and uniform contracts, seven different court designs and arena renovations.
In years past, it was likely very explainable due to a talent deficiency, but this team has talent. Granted not Kansas talent, but there are all big-ten performers on the floor. But still this feeling, this consistent feeling, that no matter how impressive Michigan can be in spurts, doom is on the way. This feeling that leads to this consistently repeated question in my mind.... Why did I turn on my DVR?
What the hell is "it," and when is it going to go away?
January 21st, 2010 at 8:13 AM ^
Ed Martin
January 21st, 2010 at 8:28 AM ^
This doesn't really explain problems during the Amaker years, but the "live and die by the 3" mentality becomes somewhat of a liability towards the end of close games. There are very few opportunities for second-chance FGs when everyone is more concerned with getting back on defense than getting offensive rebounds.
Another explanation is that we have always had a PG/SG as our "go-to guy". Instead of having a dominant C who has a 75% chance of a FG or PF every time he gets the ball underneath the basket, we always rely on a guard to take over at the end of close games where the entire opposing team is defending him.
As someone has said in another thread, we have never had a coach who will scream at the refs until we get calls. This seems to work against us towards the end of big games also.
January 21st, 2010 at 8:35 AM ^
your 2 points are correct (live & die by the 3, which is a risky shot, and no center/ inside game).
Unfortunately, we don't have an option (and it will get worse next year) at center, so how can we win these games?
As an aside, why is Beilein considered a great coach, when his philosophy is to shoot 3s and pray? I'm not a basketball expert (or even a hardcore fan), but have wondered this as it seems like any idiot could advocate this.
January 21st, 2010 at 9:07 AM ^
Simple Answer: Beilein is considered a good coach because he has had success everywhere.
Manny and DeShawn are not ideal players for the Beilein system, but because they are the most talented players we have, they are going get substantial playing time. Once they are replaced with more compatible players, I'm hoping the overall system will work as it should. We will see, though. I still question where we are going to get offensive production from beyond next season.
January 21st, 2010 at 9:44 AM ^
getting better with replacing Manny and DeShawn with guys Evan Smotrycz, Blake McLimas, Jordan Morgan.
Just look at yesterday's game. DeShawn was the only guy who could score (usually Manny joins him).
On a seperate topic if we all believed that past success leads to future success, we would all be driving GM cars, have never bought any cheap Chinese good, and have AIG insurance.
The point is that past success doesn't equal future success, which sucks for us Michigan fans.
January 21st, 2010 at 10:20 AM ^
Past success is a very good indicator of future success. It doesn't work out in all cases, but I don't really any other viable alternative method of choosing a coach.
January 21st, 2010 at 9:34 AM ^
I take it this is a joke? You think all there is to coaching is just "Hey guys, get in there and throw up some threes"? There is defense, offensive spacing, making guys feel comfortable in their roles, teaching them fundamentals, substitution patterns, etc. Beilein is a good coach b/c he knows the game, and guys buy into his system and run it. This year has been tough but it's much more fun watching a game now vs. the Amaker years when it was just a case if we could out-talent another team.
January 21st, 2010 at 1:31 PM ^
Without getting into a long thing about how he has turned mediocre and moribund programs into tournament teams at every single stop, without listing his multiple coaching awards from his peers, without considering the fact he just did something at Michigan nobody else could for about a decade (which I assume you must have noticed):
Beilein is an exceptional strategic coach. When his bench can't score, when Novak, LLP, and Douglass combine to go 4-19 and Manny goes 4-14, there's not a lot he can do. They shot 32% from 3-point last night - that had nothing to do with why they lost. When Sims jacked up a bad three late, Beilein called him out, because that isn't what the offense is.
He can't go on the court and shoot for these guys. While I'm not happy about how this season has gone at all, it is stunning how quickly people forget last season (and particularly the 10 years before it).
And to respond to your later "past success is no indicator of the future" comment: he has been successful HERE, at Michigan. You admit that you're no basketball expert, so what on earth are you doing projecting how recruits are going to play in his system???
January 21st, 2010 at 2:15 PM ^
The "live and die by the 3" stuff is a little overblown. We don't always take a ton of them. Yesterday we took 19 to Wisconsin's 24. Shooting threes had little to do with our collapse down the stretch. Most of our shot attempts late in the game came from inside the arc.
January 21st, 2010 at 8:59 AM ^
hits the nail on the head as far as Michigan basketball mojo. I too watched and never believed we would hold on. While risking oversimplification, I think the loss can be boiled down to one terrible three taken by Sims. I want to say it was right after Wisconsin tied the game. Horrible shot and horrible TIME for the shot. Sims played his ass off and scored most of our points, but it's never a good performance in all phases of the game with him. It's always good plus bad, including fouling out. Two of the five fouls were absolutely unnecessary and purely lack of judgment.
I'm forced to conclude that the basketball IQ of the players on this team is really not all that high. Oh, and Douglass and Novak are afraid of layups, kind of like Pedro Cerrano's bat is afraid of curveballs.
This team is maddening.
January 21st, 2010 at 9:24 AM ^
Valid point on Douglass and Novak. To Douglass' credit though, he has been playing very well on both ends of the court for quite a while now.
January 21st, 2010 at 9:34 AM ^
And Novak has been beating out guys 6" taller than him for rebounds. They both deserve credit. At a top-tier basketball program, they would be quality sixth men, or two men that rotate one starting position.
January 21st, 2010 at 10:40 AM ^
I think Stu has been great recently, but he and Novak definitely need to practice some layups. They both have been missing point blank shots, and it killed us last night.
I did feel good about how we played, though. I actually thought we would win, right up until Wisconsin tied us. Then, I knew it was over, heh. Oh well, bring on Purdue.
January 21st, 2010 at 9:51 AM ^
very ill timed, but he did make the other three he shot. Manny on the other hand seemed to be forcing everything. It seemed like everytime he drove the lane he turned it over or missed the shot. He plays so much better when he lets the game come to him. Given when Sims fouled out Manny probably felt like he HAD to make something happen. It seems their right on the cusp of success and then lose "it".
January 21st, 2010 at 9:02 AM ^
I think that for the most part, talent hasn't been the issue.
Amaker was a great recruiter in his time here.
January 21st, 2010 at 9:09 AM ^
is an understatement. I am one of the rare breed that cares about M basketball and football on close to the same level. My love for Michigan basketball kind of even resulted in my love for Michigan football, and this season has been EXCRUCIATING.
And to touch on a couple of points below, I like Beilien, a lot, but there are times when I flat out don't think he makes much needed and fairly obvious adjustments. He is a system coach, but your system HAS TO include an abandonment of the system at times to secure a hoop. It has to include a go to time-place-person to at least get to the line. It has to include a "things going well" timeout to set up that key play before Harris pulls up an ill advised fadeaway three and turns around momentum. I have never thought about coaching basketball and I can see these things coming. Come on. I know it is players that actually play the game, but a coach has to know what's coming and take action to prevent it and present a set in stone alternative.
AHHHHHHHHH!!!!!! Damnit!!!
January 21st, 2010 at 1:38 PM ^
He's given guys the green light to shoot, which I think is a bit of an issue due to the lack of on-court leadership. But we don't have the guys to bang down low consistently, and Manny can't beat people off the dribble - this is what the plan has to be. Defensively I think (including last night) Beilein makes great adjustments. Poor shot selection I don't really think you can put on him most of the time: taking the late Sims three as one example, he clearly did NOT want that to be the shot.
Nobody could score last night, period (see 8-33 by everyone not named Sims). They were really struggling bringing the ball inside late too. Wisconsin just tightened up the D, and with some help from the refs and some bad misses by Michigan, that was it. Ungodly frustrating, but I'm not sure a strategic shift was the problem there.
January 21st, 2010 at 9:14 AM ^
But you can't have it.
It's in your face, but you can't grab it.
It's it.
What is it?
It's it.
(sorry--I do share your frustration)
January 21st, 2010 at 12:07 PM ^
^^^ ^^^ ^^^
Obligatory Faith No More incantation
January 21st, 2010 at 9:41 AM ^
It's hard to have that "go-to guy" when that guy still makes HS type plays at times.
I'm scared for next year and it sucks having that feeling of doom while watching games.
That being said, I think the Hughes kid and that PG from UCONN are very very good but I think I saw at one stretch that they had Michigan 17-1 in bench points.
Wisc got just enough help from everyone to pull the game out and their star player was playing desperate at the end of the game.
January 21st, 2010 at 9:44 AM ^
"Faith No More" when they read the thread title?
January 21st, 2010 at 9:57 AM ^
See above!
January 21st, 2010 at 10:08 AM ^
That's what I get for posting without having my coffee. Thanks for the heads up.
January 21st, 2010 at 9:53 AM ^
I don't know how that lead evaporated so fast but it did and it definitely pissed me off. Sims had a pretty good first half and sunk some good 3 pointers and Michigan had a nice lead going into the 5 minute mark then all went to hell. I don't know why we are such a terrible second half team. Same thing happens to us in football. Why do we have trouble finishing games?
January 21st, 2010 at 10:04 AM ^
i have class with a few players that used to play at UM and other college schools. we were talking about the team yesterday and they said that mentally the team may be somewhat out of it. comparing last year to this year, they talked about how high the team was after beating UCLA and Duke - two teams that UM was not supposed to beat. in contrast, this year, they lost most of the OOC games that they were supposed to win and really didn't pull off a huge upset. and, before every negs me, they directly addressed the UCONN game and said that even though it was a good game, the players knew that UNCONN simply was not the team they usually are and that they were inflated in the rankings. one of the players said that at this point, he was afraid the team was "addicted to losing." i thought that was an interesting way to put it - he said that behind all the media blurbs, players know their chances of making the tourney are low and that the combination of previous, very disappointing losses and the lack of team confidence, they were not confident about the team making a tourney run.
from my perspective, the one thing this team sorely lacks is a killer instinct. last year, there were hints of their ability to hurt, beat up, and crush teams: UCLA, Duke, and Clemson, to name a few. maybe they didn't kill them on the scoreboard, but they bruised opposing players...they went at them and took charge. with the exception of the UCONN game, i haven't seen any swagger at all from this team. they seem totally deflated and unmotivated. small teams are not inherently bad teams. small teams can be great teams if they play physical and intimidating. UM is a small team that is finesse oriented and simply lacks a lot of toughness.
thats why i never thought they would win last night. they had no confidence with the lead...there was no killer instinct. hopefully they can change that attitude going forward...otherwise, i'll be praying for an NIT bid...
January 21st, 2010 at 10:30 AM ^
To me, what separated UM from Wisconsin in the last four minutes last night was the ability to get to the hole and finish when you have to have a basket.
Trevon Hughes could do it and Michigan doesn't have anyone who can get the ball at the top of the key, go either way, and finish. From the point where UM had a 43-39 lead, Hughes went to the basket and scored three times and missed another layup that UW rebounded and put back. Four of the six possessions that took the game from 43-39 Michigan at 4:31 to 51-46 Wisconsin with 0:26 were initiated by a Trevon Hughes drive to the basket. Once Ryan went to this attack consistently, Wisconsin scored 2.75 points per minute when they had scored 1.09 points per minute up to that point.
In my opinion, Bo Ryan had an ace in the hole he could go to at crunch time, and Michigan didn't have that. Sims misses the three, Harris missed a couple runners, and Novack missed a mid range jumper, and that was all she wrote. I think all four shots Michigan took were decent looks, but they weren't the high percentage shots that Wisconsin managed by letting Hughes penetrate. Manny is decent off the drible, but he doesn't go left and doesn't generally get through traffic to get all the way to the rim.
I don't think it's a surprise that the only time during the last ten years that Michigan was able to really finish off games was in the seasons that Horton was all there. He is basically the only player they've had over that period that could consistently create and make his own shot when it really matters. Here's to hoping Ziegler chooses UM and has that ability. If not, I think Brundige is the man to do that in the following class. Overall point being, Beilein needs to make sure he has someone like that on all his teams to compliment the rest of the system.
January 21st, 2010 at 10:42 AM ^
Is something recent Michigan teams have not had. A solid dribble-penetration guy who can get open looks for his teammates would do wonders in Beilien's offense.
January 21st, 2010 at 11:19 AM ^
This "it" factor is something my friends and I discussed at length during last year's great run. We all felt that under Tommy the team had no closing power and lacked a killer instinct. It was under that assumption that we felt like we would blow big, close games at the end like UCLA and Duke. After the Duke game tho, we though that Beilein had instilled a new attitude in the team and that we were still in any game (see Penn State this year, Savannah State and Indiana last year). Its really disappointing to me that with CJ and Dave gone, we seem to have lost what we had been missing all those years under Tommy.
I don't know what "it" is but we need to get "it" back and soon.
January 21st, 2010 at 12:25 PM ^
I think it has to do with confidence and consistency. The first part of the season they were efficient offensively (other than inconsistent shooting) but poor defensively. As a result I'm 99% positive the emphasis in practice lately has been on defense and their offensive efficiency has fallen off of late. That's what gives coach's gray hairs, when your team can't remember everything together and you keep having to emphasize different things.
January 21st, 2010 at 2:18 PM ^
I don't think we've ever been efficient offensively this season (aside from a couple of games against tomato cans). We certainly were not in any of our OOC losses. We have gotten better defensively, but the offense really has never fully shown up.
January 21st, 2010 at 2:20 PM ^
MOMMY! MOMMY! MAKE IT STOP!