UM -9 over SDSU

Submitted by Knappster on

Early line at the Wynn has UM at -9.  Seems high to me, but what say you?

One factor - Game is at noon ET (9:00am SDSU time)

Tater

September 18th, 2011 at 7:48 PM ^

The "Michigan is back" and "Michigan Man" memes are having their desired effect; respect is coming back quite fast.  Now, it's the team's turn to justify their ranking and their esteem in the eyes of the betting public.

I think 35-24 is a reasonable guess, which would cover by two.   

markusr2007

September 18th, 2011 at 7:56 PM ^

And they don't turn the ball over.  1 INT and 1 lost fumble last week. Lindley has been sacked only once.

Tailback Ronnie Hillman is the real deal. He's averaging 6+ ypc and 8 TDs and 166 ypg.

I don't think their defense is very good though, but at least for the first time ever Michigan fans can finally observe how a 3-3-5 defense should really be deployed - from the inventor himself Rocky Long.

After the WMU, ND and especially EMU game, I just don't see Michigan's defense stopping SDSU at all.  I don't think UM can rely on turnovers to eek this one out.

My view is that either Michigan defense finally finds itself or the offense better score a ton of points in this game. Preferably both happen in this game.

 

readyourguard

September 18th, 2011 at 8:01 PM ^

Color me more than a little concerned about this game.  Somehow we have got to get the running backs going.  This game will test our defense, as well. 

It should be a good test as we head into the conference schedule.

Go Blue!

Blue since birth

September 18th, 2011 at 8:18 PM ^

I just hope if/when we beat them convincingly all of the respect they seem to be getting doesn't vanish mysteriously. Something tells me they'll become a "cupcake" by this time next week.

 

RSTJ

September 18th, 2011 at 8:38 PM ^

line has already dropped down to 7.5 or 8.  that seems about right to me.

i also found the opening line for EMU and PSU interesting. PSU opened at 28, which was lower than where we closed.

Maize_in_Spartyland

September 18th, 2011 at 9:50 PM ^

7.5 or 8 seems about right.  Key matchups are Ronnie Hillman vs. M run defense and Ryan Lindley vs. blitz.

Penn State/Eastern at 28 seems about right.  My inclination is to take PSU, provided the Paternos somewhat settle on a QB.  Silas Redd should destroy the Eastern run D, if Saturday was any indication in Ann Arbor.

JT4104

September 18th, 2011 at 8:41 PM ^

As usual the biggest keys to this game for me are...first and foremost considering what we have seen from campbell the last 2 weeks, I think we can make an argument to have him start and move RVB back to DE. Even against EMU brink/heineger were getting mauled. We need our best possible Dline to start this game and set the tone.

On the O side of the ball simply gotta be able to run with RB's and Denard needs to have his best throwing day of the year. Anything else less than above average will kill us on saturday.

I do agree that 9pts seems way to high for us.

budclay55

September 18th, 2011 at 8:41 PM ^

didn't expect it to be that high. i think michigan will win 31-21 but will give up a lot of yards on the day. i wouldn't be surprised to see hilmman approach or go over 200 yards on the ground.  defense will hold well it needs to and the offense will be more consistent and pull away midway through the 4th quarter. 

Logan88

September 19th, 2011 at 8:30 AM ^

Would you be afraid that UM would lose to NW...with their backup QB...in Ann Arbor?

If the answer is "yes", please leave the premises immediately and turn in your UM fan card at the door.

SDSU will have little trouble moving the ball on the ground (Hillman is legit), but UM will win this game by at least 10 points, so I have no trouble with the -9.0 opening line. My prediction: UM wins 38-24.

Hokemaniac

September 18th, 2011 at 9:31 PM ^

actually really nervous about this game. We keep coming out of the gates flat for at least the first quarter. SDSU still has a lot of weapons offensively. I am not too educated on their Defense, but I am sure some Denardage will occur.  I think that the game will be a lot closer than people think.

uminks

September 18th, 2011 at 9:44 PM ^

If  the offense plays well and scores often then it could be kind of a high scoring blow out.  If the offense cannot move the ball and our defense ends up for long periods of time, then yes we could lose this one.

Njia

September 18th, 2011 at 9:56 PM ^

I have a feeling that the SDSU coaching staff has been pumping up the team for this game since January. It wouldn't surprise me to find that they had a countdown clock installed in the locker room. They have probably added some wrinkles to the playbook (and may have raised an eyebrow or two at the possibility of a jet sweep after last weekend).

A touchdown in our favor seems about right to me, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see it much closer.

markusr2007

September 18th, 2011 at 11:02 PM ^

Michigan is in a pretty decent place right now to exploit the crap out of any and all SDSU team and personnel weaknesses - since Hoke and Borges know the offense and defensive players better than anyone - maybe better than Rocky.

 

WolvinLA2

September 18th, 2011 at 11:25 PM ^

This is the one game where MANBALL will come in very handy.  Their 3-3-5 defense is not built to stop MANBALL, not to mention their front 6 is small anyway.  If we get our big guys blocking and our RBs can figure their shit out, we should just pound away for 5-6 per carry, and then toss it down the field of let Denard keep it occasionally just to keep them honest. 

They don't have the personnel to rotate much on the DL, so if we can tire out their starting d-linemen, we're in good shape. 

M.I.Sicks

September 19th, 2011 at 12:32 AM ^

to watch SDSU vs. Wash St. this morning on the Mtn. Network. Let's just say they played like a Brady Hoke team. Wash St. held their own for the first half of the game. SDSU was a different team in the second half. Forced a couple turnovers and scored 3 TDs in the 4th quarter alone. SDSU's QB Lindley is stricly a prototype pocket passer. So that's atleast one area the defense can take a deep breath.

However, SDSU's RB Ronnie Hillman will cause the most fits against the Michigan defense. He's a strong little ball of hate and he's quick. He accounted for 4 TDs and almost 200yds against Wash St. They also have a TE Escobar who lines up at WR a bit. He's a beast and could be big problem for the secondary especially on saftey blitzes. He had a couple TDs as well.

SDSU's defense is small but fast. They have a quality LB #54 he's good. Their run D is shoddy though Wash St. didn't seem interested in running the ball much. Denard and the RBs should be able to move the ball fairly well against them. SDSU flies all over the field and have an oppourtunistic secondary that ballhawks. I would suggest Denard not throw many jump balls, because they will look to take advantage of those inaccurate throws. Borges needs to just keep it simple. Short passes to the RBs,TEs, screens and deep balls that only the WRs or the turf can touch.

All in all SDSU looks like a quality MAC team. Michigan should be able to beat SDSU by double digits. Just don't let this team hang around, because it could end up far more interesting than it should be.

cigol

September 19th, 2011 at 8:56 AM ^

The bookies want to get the betting even on both sides.  Considering Michigan has a betting following that is probably 10x that of SDSU, I think that plays a role in such a large spread.  On the other side of the coin, remember when we were only 6 point underdogs to Mississippi State?  When we're playing teams that aren't Notre Dame, OSU, or some other school with a massive fan base that will always bet on their team, it'd be smart money to bet against Michigan.  I can never get myself to do it though....and neither should you.

JDNorway

September 19th, 2011 at 10:57 AM ^

Pretty sure you're right, but neutrals bet brands. We get less of a brand premium these days. SDSU, due to their record this year and last year, will be considered a sneaky upset pick. I see no reason why Michigan, considering our record from the last few years, should see an unbalanced amount of action on our side for a double digit blowout.

I'm guessing the 7.5-8 point spread is just about fair. I'd take the good guys, though. If, like, betting was legal.

WolvinLA2

September 19th, 2011 at 10:58 AM ^

I don't have a lot of good evidence to back this up, but I bet that's not true.  I was in Vegas on opening weekend, and I bet on Michigan.  It's the only game I bet on (and it was refunded because of f-ing rain or I would have won).  Additionally, the people sitting by me were USC and ND fans and they both bet on their respective teams (HALOL at the ND fan).

I bet most regular sports better don't bet with their hearts because they know it's stupid or they've been burned doing it.  But a lot of casual betters bet on their team, at least when they think their team has a favorable line.

JDNorway

September 19th, 2011 at 11:12 AM ^

You probably dropped 50 or something on Michigan. It takes quite a few betters like you or me to cancel out the heavy action on the other side if Vegas sets an unbalanced line. Add in all the haters ("no way Michigan covers, they suck") and you realize it takes a pretty strong fan base to shift the lines in favour of the home team.

National team soccer games are an example of games where there's often value on the opposing team with national betting services (or against England), depending on the common preception of the home squad. Hard to find the US equivalent, since not everyone is into the USMNT.

Durham Blue

September 19th, 2011 at 11:12 AM ^

and I took EMU +30.5.  It was a great bet because it worked out but I found myself rooting for my team to not score, turn it over, or somehow otherwise screw up just to satisfy the point spread.  It was horrible watching a Michigan game this way.

If you're going to bet against your team, make sure it's a tiny wager so you can root for your team to kick butt.