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UM -9 over SDSU

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September 18th, 2011 at 7:33 PM
#1
Knappster
Knappster's picture
Joined: 09/03/2009
MGoPoints: 1371
UM -9 over SDSU

Early line at the Wynn has UM at -9.  Seems high to me, but what say you?

One factor - Game is at noon ET (9:00am SDSU time)

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September 18th, 2011 at 7:43 PM | Yeah, seems a bit high to me (Score:2)
FreddieMercuryHayes
Joined: 12/29/2010
MGoPoints: 4884

Yeah, seems a bit high to me as well.  If we beat them by 9 or more, I'll be happy.  Kind of sad that I feel this way.

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September 18th, 2011 at 9:55 PM | If we beat them any which way (Score:5 Normal)
Lordfoul
Lordfoul's picture
Joined: 07/01/2008
MGoPoints: 1455

If we beat them any which way I'll be happy.

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September 19th, 2011 at 9:17 AM | Amen to that. (Score:2)
champswest
champswest's picture
Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 2001

Amen to that.

"I hate losing more than I like winning." - Zack

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September 18th, 2011 at 7:45 PM | I will be happy just to get the W (Score:4 Normal)
brooktrail
Joined: 05/31/2011
MGoPoints: 441

I am not convinced that we can bag this one already.

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September 18th, 2011 at 7:46 PM | LOL, 3 field goals. (Score:5 Normal)
biakabutuka exp...
biakabutuka explosion 3000's picture
Joined: 04/17/2009
MGoPoints: 2165

LOL, 3 field goals.

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September 18th, 2011 at 7:48 PM | Seems right (Score:1 Normal)
Tater
Tater's picture
Joined: 08/13/2008
MGoPoints: 10358

The "Michigan is back" and "Michigan Man" memes are having their desired effect; respect is coming back quite fast.  Now, it's the team's turn to justify their ranking and their esteem in the eyes of the betting public.

I think 35-24 is a reasonable guess, which would cover by two.   

 

 

 

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September 18th, 2011 at 7:50 PM | SDSU: Cheer-leading Halloween Party (Score:1)
brooktrail
Joined: 05/31/2011
MGoPoints: 441

http://band.sdsu.edu/dancebios10_11.php

 

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September 18th, 2011 at 7:58 PM | Gross (Score:2 Normal)
BlastBeat88
BlastBeat88's picture
Joined: 09/17/2009
MGoPoints: 2796

Some of those girls are probably gorgeous, but you can't tell because they have literal masks of cosmetics on their faces.

No excuses. Play like a champion.

http://www.gundaymonday.com

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September 18th, 2011 at 11:08 PM | Yikes... (Score:0)
onlyblue1982
Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 76

not to mention photoshopped to hell. On the other hand, maybe those involved in the mgophoto competition could have some fun with those images?

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September 18th, 2011 at 11:31 PM | they look like (Score:1)
rockediny
rockediny's picture
Joined: 08/14/2010
MGoPoints: 1396

they look like clowns.....*shudder*

"There will be blood on the field and it won't be mine." -KK

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September 19th, 2011 at 10:55 AM | Whoa (Score:2 Normal)
TIMMMAAY
TIMMMAAY's picture
Joined: 09/08/2008
MGoPoints: 5949

I swear I just saw the same girl repeated like four times. Scary shit there. 

not just "douchey" MGoBlog user, but now TRUSTED MGoBlog user

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September 18th, 2011 at 8:02 PM | Yikes.  I was expecting more (Score:5 Normal)
ReadYourGuard
ReadYourGuard's picture
Joined: 08/21/2008
MGoPoints: 6189

Yikes.  I was expecting more from San Diego.

"the Spirit of Michigan...is based on a deathless loyalty to Michigan and all her ways....and a conviction that nowhere is there a better university, in any way, than this Michigan of ours" - Fielding Yost
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September 18th, 2011 at 8:06 PM | I do like Jessica's answer (Score:3 Normal)
RedGreene
RedGreene's picture
Joined: 07/02/2009
MGoPoints: 1306

I do like Jessica's answer for Most Embarrassing Moment: My bathing suit top came off at the beach.

Yes I got him a gift. He had a kidney stone. You piss a rock through your pecker, you deserve more than just a pat on the fucking back.

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September 19th, 2011 at 10:44 AM | "Fun Fact: I have never dyed (Score:5 Normal)
JDNorway
Joined: 08/22/2008
MGoPoints: 277

"Fun Fact: I have never dyed or highlighted my hair"

You crazy little thing!

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September 18th, 2011 at 7:56 PM | Yeah, SDSU is playing pretty well (Score:5 Normal)
markusr2007
markusr2007's picture
Joined: 10/21/2008
MGoPoints: 3419

And they don't turn the ball over.  1 INT and 1 lost fumble last week. Lindley has been sacked only once.

Tailback Ronnie Hillman is the real deal. He's averaging 6+ ypc and 8 TDs and 166 ypg.

I don't think their defense is very good though, but at least for the first time ever Michigan fans can finally observe how a 3-3-5 defense should really be deployed - from the inventor himself Rocky Long.

After the WMU, ND and especially EMU game, I just don't see Michigan's defense stopping SDSU at all.  I don't think UM can rely on turnovers to eek this one out.

My view is that either Michigan defense finally finds itself or the offense better score a ton of points in this game. Preferably both happen in this game.

 

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September 18th, 2011 at 8:10 PM | Sigh (Score:4 Normal)
BiSB
BiSB's picture
Joined: 08/15/2009
MGoPoints: 27875

A well-executed 3-3-5 defense fills me with ennui.

They no longer call me Bisbiño

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September 18th, 2011 at 8:01 PM | Color me more than a little (Score:1 Flamebait)
ReadYourGuard
ReadYourGuard's picture
Joined: 08/21/2008
MGoPoints: 6189

Color me more than a little concerned about this game.  Somehow we have got to get the running backs going.  This game will test our defense, as well. 

It should be a good test as we head into the conference schedule.

Go Blue!

"the Spirit of Michigan...is based on a deathless loyalty to Michigan and all her ways....and a conviction that nowhere is there a better university, in any way, than this Michigan of ours" - Fielding Yost
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September 18th, 2011 at 8:18 PM | I just hope if/when we beat (Score:3 Normal)
Blue since birth
Joined: 12/24/2009
MGoPoints: 1076

I just hope if/when we beat them convincingly all of the respect they seem to be getting doesn't vanish mysteriously. Something tells me they'll become a "cupcake" by this time next week.

 

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September 18th, 2011 at 8:38 PM | line has already dropped down (Score:1)
RSTJ
Joined: 02/27/2010
MGoPoints: 172

line has already dropped down to 7.5 or 8.  that seems about right to me.

i also found the opening line for EMU and PSU interesting. PSU opened at 28, which was lower than where we closed.

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September 18th, 2011 at 9:50 PM | 7.5 or 8 seems about right. (Score:1)
Maize_in_spartyland
Maize_in_spartyland's picture
Joined: 04/06/2011
MGoPoints: 738

7.5 or 8 seems about right.  Key matchups are Ronnie Hillman vs. M run defense and Ryan Lindley vs. blitz.

Penn State/Eastern at 28 seems about right.  My inclination is to take PSU, provided the Paternos somewhat settle on a QB.  Silas Redd should destroy the Eastern run D, if Saturday was any indication in Ann Arbor.

For more on college football, college basketball, baseball, hockey, and more, visit Before Visiting the Sportsbook.

Follow BVTSB

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September 18th, 2011 at 8:41 PM | As usual the biggest keys to (Score:1)
JT4104
JT4104's picture
Joined: 10/25/2008
MGoPoints: 1928

As usual the biggest keys to this game for me are...first and foremost considering what we have seen from campbell the last 2 weeks, I think we can make an argument to have him start and move RVB back to DE. Even against EMU brink/heineger were getting mauled. We need our best possible Dline to start this game and set the tone.

On the O side of the ball simply gotta be able to run with RB's and Denard needs to have his best throwing day of the year. Anything else less than above average will kill us on saturday.

I do agree that 9pts seems way to high for us.

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September 18th, 2011 at 8:41 PM | didn't expect it to be that (Score:1)
budclay55
Joined: 08/17/2011
MGoPoints: 71

didn't expect it to be that high. i think michigan will win 31-21 but will give up a lot of yards on the day. i wouldn't be surprised to see hilmman approach or go over 200 yards on the ground.  defense will hold well it needs to and the offense will be more consistent and pull away midway through the 4th quarter. 

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September 18th, 2011 at 9:01 PM | I don't understand the fear. (Score:3 Normal)
dosleches
Joined: 05/18/2010
MGoPoints: 652

I don't understand the fear. SDSU barely beat a winless Army team after Army fumbled 8 times and lost 3.

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September 18th, 2011 at 9:32 PM | Um (Score:0 Normal)
Tubes
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 647

Army just beat Northwestern

Athens, GA

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September 18th, 2011 at 9:44 PM | Oh, right. My bad. Okay, so a (Score:5 Normal)
dosleches
Joined: 05/18/2010
MGoPoints: 652

Oh, right. My bad. Okay, so a 1-2 Army team that lost to juggernaut Northern Illinois 49-20. Army is just okay and so is SDSU.

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September 19th, 2011 at 8:30 AM | Would you be afraid that UM (Score:4 Normal)
Logan88
Joined: 01/05/2009
MGoPoints: 2906

Would you be afraid that UM would lose to NW...with their backup QB...in Ann Arbor?

If the answer is "yes", please leave the premises immediately and turn in your UM fan card at the door.

SDSU will have little trouble moving the ball on the ground (Hillman is legit), but UM will win this game by at least 10 points, so I have no trouble with the -9.0 opening line. My prediction: UM wins 38-24.

We ARE Michigan....COME GET SOME!!!

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September 18th, 2011 at 9:31 PM | I am (Score:1)
Hokemaniac
Joined: 07/19/2011
MGoPoints: 232

actually really nervous about this game. We keep coming out of the gates flat for at least the first quarter. SDSU still has a lot of weapons offensively. I am not too educated on their Defense, but I am sure some Denardage will occur.  I think that the game will be a lot closer than people think.

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September 19th, 2011 at 10:41 AM | Denardage (Score:1)
SGRWebster
Joined: 01/31/2011
MGoPoints: 61

is my new favorite word

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September 18th, 2011 at 9:44 PM | It all hinges on the offense! (Score:1)
uminks
uminks's picture
Joined: 11/10/2009
MGoPoints: 1441

If  the offense plays well and scores often then it could be kind of a high scoring blow out.  If the offense cannot move the ball and our defense ends up for long periods of time, then yes we could lose this one.

expect the best

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September 18th, 2011 at 9:56 PM | This is one of those games (Score:1 Normal)
Njia
Njia's picture
Joined: 09/15/2009
MGoPoints: 6038

I have a feeling that the SDSU coaching staff has been pumping up the team for this game since January. It wouldn't surprise me to find that they had a countdown clock installed in the locker room. They have probably added some wrinkles to the playbook (and may have raised an eyebrow or two at the possibility of a jet sweep after last weekend).

A touchdown in our favor seems about right to me, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see it much closer.

"If life is the road, then Ohio is simply a place to stop for gas." -- Scott Burgess, Detroit News, 9/16/2010
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September 19th, 2011 at 3:35 PM | That's probably true, but by (Score:2)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 28961

That's probably true, but by the same token, it's a pretty big game for Hoke, too.  I'm sure it's been on his mind for awhile.

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September 18th, 2011 at 10:37 PM | seems right (Score:1)
buckeyeh8er
Joined: 08/16/2009
MGoPoints: 479

3 pts for home field and we a better team by 6 pts. seems about right.

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September 18th, 2011 at 11:02 PM | On the other hand (Score:2)
markusr2007
markusr2007's picture
Joined: 10/21/2008
MGoPoints: 3419

Michigan is in a pretty decent place right now to exploit the crap out of any and all SDSU team and personnel weaknesses - since Hoke and Borges know the offense and defensive players better than anyone - maybe better than Rocky.

 

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September 18th, 2011 at 11:25 PM | This is the one game where (Score:2 Normal)
WolvinLA2
WolvinLA2's picture
Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 17615

This is the one game where MANBALL will come in very handy.  Their 3-3-5 defense is not built to stop MANBALL, not to mention their front 6 is small anyway.  If we get our big guys blocking and our RBs can figure their shit out, we should just pound away for 5-6 per carry, and then toss it down the field of let Denard keep it occasionally just to keep them honest. 

They don't have the personnel to rotate much on the DL, so if we can tire out their starting d-linemen, we're in good shape. 

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September 19th, 2011 at 12:03 AM | They need to run it out of I (Score:0 Normal)
One Inch Woody ...
One Inch Woody Hayes Punch's picture
Joined: 06/25/2011
MGoPoints: 562

They need to run it out of I form more... That way if an O lineman makes a mistake, there is only a minute chance for a tackle in the backfield. Touissant got some nice yardage on some I-form runs but to my chagrin they called quite a few QB keepers in the EMU game. Play-Action + Denard + Rollout = 3x Qb Oh Noes.

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September 19th, 2011 at 8:16 AM | Did you watch the game? (Score:3 Normal)
Maize and Blue ...
Maize and Blue 4 Life's picture
Joined: 03/15/2009
MGoPoints: 3516

The whole first quarter against EMU "manball" resulted in 32 yards and ZERO points.  While the first drive in the shotgun featuring spread elements resulted in a TD.  This team is not suited for "manball" and it shows with the slow starts as the coaches try to run what they want instead of what works.

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September 19th, 2011 at 3:39 PM | Huh? (Score:2)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 28961

I do not know how you (or anyone for that matter) are defining "manball," but most of our offensive plays on those first couple of drives were out of the shotgun.

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September 19th, 2011 at 10:46 AM | Except... (Score:1)
MikeUM85
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Joined: 06/09/2010
MGoPoints: 190

Except that we seem to be pretty awful at said MANBALL. 

 

“The strength of the Pack is the Wolf, and the strength of the Wolf is the Pack.” Rudyard Kipling (1865-1936)

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September 20th, 2011 at 4:35 PM | Right . . . (Score:2)
The Nicker
Joined: 08/30/2008
MGoPoints: 183

TCU's 3-3-5 had a real hard time stopping MANBALL in the Rose Bowl this year. Can we drop this fallacy?

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September 20th, 2011 at 5:08 PM | A 3-3-5 can stop anything if (Score:1)
justingoblue
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Joined: 11/16/2010
MGoPoints: 10859

A 3-3-5 can stop anything if the players (and scheme) are good enough, but TCU runs a 4-2-5, not a 3-3-5.

Go Blue!

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September 19th, 2011 at 12:32 AM | Got a chance (Score:5 Normal)
M.I.Sicks
M.I.Sicks's picture
Joined: 03/06/2009
MGoPoints: 343

to watch SDSU vs. Wash St. this morning on the Mtn. Network. Let's just say they played like a Brady Hoke team. Wash St. held their own for the first half of the game. SDSU was a different team in the second half. Forced a couple turnovers and scored 3 TDs in the 4th quarter alone. SDSU's QB Lindley is stricly a prototype pocket passer. So that's atleast one area the defense can take a deep breath.

However, SDSU's RB Ronnie Hillman will cause the most fits against the Michigan defense. He's a strong little ball of hate and he's quick. He accounted for 4 TDs and almost 200yds against Wash St. They also have a TE Escobar who lines up at WR a bit. He's a beast and could be big problem for the secondary especially on saftey blitzes. He had a couple TDs as well.

SDSU's defense is small but fast. They have a quality LB #54 he's good. Their run D is shoddy though Wash St. didn't seem interested in running the ball much. Denard and the RBs should be able to move the ball fairly well against them. SDSU flies all over the field and have an oppourtunistic secondary that ballhawks. I would suggest Denard not throw many jump balls, because they will look to take advantage of those inaccurate throws. Borges needs to just keep it simple. Short passes to the RBs,TEs, screens and deep balls that only the WRs or the turf can touch.

All in all SDSU looks like a quality MAC team. Michigan should be able to beat SDSU by double digits. Just don't let this team hang around, because it could end up far more interesting than it should be.

“That is a total f***ing lie. It is bullsh*t and it is horse sh*t, and people need to be held accountable" -Jim Leyland

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September 19th, 2011 at 9:45 AM | posted from iPhone (Score:3 Normal)
allintime23
allintime23's picture
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2381

Did you say short passes? What does that mean? I really hope we start seeing some slants and more screens.

All in for some manball.

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September 19th, 2011 at 1:43 AM | I'm predicting a M win by 11 points (Score:1)
Bluestreak
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Joined: 09/26/2010
MGoPoints: 1737

I think we will score 4 TDs on SDSU with a customary slow start.

SDSU will get points up on the board but end up losing 28-17.

GMAT score =800 = Defensive POTY

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September 19th, 2011 at 8:56 AM | Point Spread (Score:2 Normal)
cigol
Joined: 11/21/2010
MGoPoints: 345

The bookies want to get the betting even on both sides.  Considering Michigan has a betting following that is probably 10x that of SDSU, I think that plays a role in such a large spread.  On the other side of the coin, remember when we were only 6 point underdogs to Mississippi State?  When we're playing teams that aren't Notre Dame, OSU, or some other school with a massive fan base that will always bet on their team, it'd be smart money to bet against Michigan.  I can never get myself to do it though....and neither should you.

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September 19th, 2011 at 9:59 AM | I think that people (Score:1)
Hannibal.
Hannibal.'s picture
Joined: 09/09/2008
MGoPoints: 2497

I think that people by-and-large don't bet their hearts.  I'm guessing that somebody somewhere has probably written a paper on it. 

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September 19th, 2011 at 10:57 AM | Pretty sure you're right, but (Score:2 Normal)
JDNorway
Joined: 08/22/2008
MGoPoints: 277

Pretty sure you're right, but neutrals bet brands. We get less of a brand premium these days. SDSU, due to their record this year and last year, will be considered a sneaky upset pick. I see no reason why Michigan, considering our record from the last few years, should see an unbalanced amount of action on our side for a double digit blowout.

I'm guessing the 7.5-8 point spread is just about fair. I'd take the good guys, though. If, like, betting was legal.

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September 19th, 2011 at 10:58 AM | I don't have a lot of good (Score:3 Normal)
WolvinLA2
WolvinLA2's picture
Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 17615

I don't have a lot of good evidence to back this up, but I bet that's not true.  I was in Vegas on opening weekend, and I bet on Michigan.  It's the only game I bet on (and it was refunded because of f-ing rain or I would have won).  Additionally, the people sitting by me were USC and ND fans and they both bet on their respective teams (HALOL at the ND fan).

I bet most regular sports better don't bet with their hearts because they know it's stupid or they've been burned doing it.  But a lot of casual betters bet on their team, at least when they think their team has a favorable line.

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September 19th, 2011 at 11:12 AM | You probably dropped 50 or (Score:1)
JDNorway
Joined: 08/22/2008
MGoPoints: 277

You probably dropped 50 or something on Michigan. It takes quite a few betters like you or me to cancel out the heavy action on the other side if Vegas sets an unbalanced line. Add in all the haters ("no way Michigan covers, they suck") and you realize it takes a pretty strong fan base to shift the lines in favour of the home team.

National team soccer games are an example of games where there's often value on the opposing team with national betting services (or against England), depending on the common preception of the home squad. Hard to find the US equivalent, since not everyone is into the USMNT.

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September 19th, 2011 at 1:26 PM | 50 bucks? Please. I spent (Score:3 Funny)
WolvinLA2
WolvinLA2's picture
Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 17615

50 bucks? Please. I spent more than that on this glass of port and double on the cigar waiting for me at home.

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September 19th, 2011 at 11:12 AM | In Vegas this weekend... (Score:1)
WestCoastWolverine
Joined: 10/09/2008
MGoPoints: 768

and I took EMU +30.5.  It was a great bet because it worked out but I found myself rooting for my team to not score, turn it over, or somehow otherwise screw up just to satisfy the point spread.  It was horrible watching a Michigan game this way.

If you're going to bet against your team, make sure it's a tiny wager so you can root for your team to kick butt.

Hoke bitches...Hoke.

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