Early line at the Wynn has UM at -9. Seems high to me, but what say you?
One factor - Game is at noon ET (9:00am SDSU time)
Yeah, seems a bit high to me as well. If we beat them by 9 or more, I'll be happy. Kind of sad that I feel this way.
If we beat them any which way I'll be happy.
Amen to that.
I am not convinced that we can bag this one already.
LOL, 3 field goals.
The "Michigan is back" and "Michigan Man" memes are having their desired effect; respect is coming back quite fast. Now, it's the team's turn to justify their ranking and their esteem in the eyes of the betting public.
I think 35-24 is a reasonable guess, which would cover by two.
Some of those girls are probably gorgeous, but you can't tell because they have literal masks of cosmetics on their faces.
not to mention photoshopped to hell. On the other hand, maybe those involved in the mgophoto competition could have some fun with those images?
they look like clowns.....*shudder*
I swear I just saw the same girl repeated like four times. Scary shit there.
Yikes. I was expecting more from San Diego.
I do like Jessica's answer for Most Embarrassing Moment: My bathing suit top came off at the beach.
"Fun Fact: I have never dyed or highlighted my hair"
You crazy little thing!
And they don't turn the ball over. 1 INT and 1 lost fumble last week. Lindley has been sacked only once.
Tailback Ronnie Hillman is the real deal. He's averaging 6+ ypc and 8 TDs and 166 ypg.
I don't think their defense is very good though, but at least for the first time ever Michigan fans can finally observe how a 3-3-5 defense should really be deployed - from the inventor himself Rocky Long.
After the WMU, ND and especially EMU game, I just don't see Michigan's defense stopping SDSU at all. I don't think UM can rely on turnovers to eek this one out.
My view is that either Michigan defense finally finds itself or the offense better score a ton of points in this game. Preferably both happen in this game.
A well-executed 3-3-5 defense fills me with ennui.
Color me more than a little concerned about this game. Somehow we have got to get the running backs going. This game will test our defense, as well.
It should be a good test as we head into the conference schedule.
I just hope if/when we beat them convincingly all of the respect they seem to be getting doesn't vanish mysteriously. Something tells me they'll become a "cupcake" by this time next week.
line has already dropped down to 7.5 or 8. that seems about right to me.
i also found the opening line for EMU and PSU interesting. PSU opened at 28, which was lower than where we closed.
7.5 or 8 seems about right. Key matchups are Ronnie Hillman vs. M run defense and Ryan Lindley vs. blitz.
Penn State/Eastern at 28 seems about right. My inclination is to take PSU, provided the Paternos somewhat settle on a QB. Silas Redd should destroy the Eastern run D, if Saturday was any indication in Ann Arbor.
As usual the biggest keys to this game for me are...first and foremost considering what we have seen from campbell the last 2 weeks, I think we can make an argument to have him start and move RVB back to DE. Even against EMU brink/heineger were getting mauled. We need our best possible Dline to start this game and set the tone.
On the O side of the ball simply gotta be able to run with RB's and Denard needs to have his best throwing day of the year. Anything else less than above average will kill us on saturday.
I do agree that 9pts seems way to high for us.
didn't expect it to be that high. i think michigan will win 31-21 but will give up a lot of yards on the day. i wouldn't be surprised to see hilmman approach or go over 200 yards on the ground. defense will hold well it needs to and the offense will be more consistent and pull away midway through the 4th quarter.
I don't understand the fear. SDSU barely beat a winless Army team after Army fumbled 8 times and lost 3.
Army just beat Northwestern
Oh, right. My bad. Okay, so a 1-2 Army team that lost to juggernaut Northern Illinois 49-20. Army is just okay and so is SDSU.
Would you be afraid that UM would lose to NW...with their backup QB...in Ann Arbor?
If the answer is "yes", please leave the premises immediately and turn in your UM fan card at the door.
SDSU will have little trouble moving the ball on the ground (Hillman is legit), but UM will win this game by at least 10 points, so I have no trouble with the -9.0 opening line. My prediction: UM wins 38-24.
actually really nervous about this game. We keep coming out of the gates flat for at least the first quarter. SDSU still has a lot of weapons offensively. I am not too educated on their Defense, but I am sure some Denardage will occur. I think that the game will be a lot closer than people think.
is my new favorite word
If the offense plays well and scores often then it could be kind of a high scoring blow out. If the offense cannot move the ball and our defense ends up for long periods of time, then yes we could lose this one.
I have a feeling that the SDSU coaching staff has been pumping up the team for this game since January. It wouldn't surprise me to find that they had a countdown clock installed in the locker room. They have probably added some wrinkles to the playbook (and may have raised an eyebrow or two at the possibility of a jet sweep after last weekend).
A touchdown in our favor seems about right to me, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see it much closer.
That's probably true, but by the same token, it's a pretty big game for Hoke, too. I'm sure it's been on his mind for awhile.
3 pts for home field and we a better team by 6 pts. seems about right.
Michigan is in a pretty decent place right now to exploit the crap out of any and all SDSU team and personnel weaknesses - since Hoke and Borges know the offense and defensive players better than anyone - maybe better than Rocky.
This is the one game where MANBALL will come in very handy. Their 3-3-5 defense is not built to stop MANBALL, not to mention their front 6 is small anyway. If we get our big guys blocking and our RBs can figure their shit out, we should just pound away for 5-6 per carry, and then toss it down the field of let Denard keep it occasionally just to keep them honest.
They don't have the personnel to rotate much on the DL, so if we can tire out their starting d-linemen, we're in good shape.
They need to run it out of I form more... That way if an O lineman makes a mistake, there is only a minute chance for a tackle in the backfield. Touissant got some nice yardage on some I-form runs but to my chagrin they called quite a few QB keepers in the EMU game. Play-Action + Denard + Rollout = 3x Qb Oh Noes.
The whole first quarter against EMU "manball" resulted in 32 yards and ZERO points. While the first drive in the shotgun featuring spread elements resulted in a TD. This team is not suited for "manball" and it shows with the slow starts as the coaches try to run what they want instead of what works.
I do not know how you (or anyone for that matter) are defining "manball," but most of our offensive plays on those first couple of drives were out of the shotgun.
Except that we seem to be pretty awful at said MANBALL.
TCU's 3-3-5 had a real hard time stopping MANBALL in the Rose Bowl this year. Can we drop this fallacy?
A 3-3-5 can stop anything if the players (and scheme) are good enough, but TCU runs a 4-2-5, not a 3-3-5.
to watch SDSU vs. Wash St. this morning on the Mtn. Network. Let's just say they played like a Brady Hoke team. Wash St. held their own for the first half of the game. SDSU was a different team in the second half. Forced a couple turnovers and scored 3 TDs in the 4th quarter alone. SDSU's QB Lindley is stricly a prototype pocket passer. So that's atleast one area the defense can take a deep breath.
However, SDSU's RB Ronnie Hillman will cause the most fits against the Michigan defense. He's a strong little ball of hate and he's quick. He accounted for 4 TDs and almost 200yds against Wash St. They also have a TE Escobar who lines up at WR a bit. He's a beast and could be big problem for the secondary especially on saftey blitzes. He had a couple TDs as well.
SDSU's defense is small but fast. They have a quality LB #54 he's good. Their run D is shoddy though Wash St. didn't seem interested in running the ball much. Denard and the RBs should be able to move the ball fairly well against them. SDSU flies all over the field and have an oppourtunistic secondary that ballhawks. I would suggest Denard not throw many jump balls, because they will look to take advantage of those inaccurate throws. Borges needs to just keep it simple. Short passes to the RBs,TEs, screens and deep balls that only the WRs or the turf can touch.
All in all SDSU looks like a quality MAC team. Michigan should be able to beat SDSU by double digits. Just don't let this team hang around, because it could end up far more interesting than it should be.
Did you say short passes? What does that mean? I really hope we start seeing some slants and more screens.
I think we will score 4 TDs on SDSU with a customary slow start.
SDSU will get points up on the board but end up losing 28-17.
The bookies want to get the betting even on both sides. Considering Michigan has a betting following that is probably 10x that of SDSU, I think that plays a role in such a large spread. On the other side of the coin, remember when we were only 6 point underdogs to Mississippi State? When we're playing teams that aren't Notre Dame, OSU, or some other school with a massive fan base that will always bet on their team, it'd be smart money to bet against Michigan. I can never get myself to do it though....and neither should you.
I think that people by-and-large don't bet their hearts. I'm guessing that somebody somewhere has probably written a paper on it.
Pretty sure you're right, but neutrals bet brands. We get less of a brand premium these days. SDSU, due to their record this year and last year, will be considered a sneaky upset pick. I see no reason why Michigan, considering our record from the last few years, should see an unbalanced amount of action on our side for a double digit blowout.
I'm guessing the 7.5-8 point spread is just about fair. I'd take the good guys, though. If, like, betting was legal.
I don't have a lot of good evidence to back this up, but I bet that's not true. I was in Vegas on opening weekend, and I bet on Michigan. It's the only game I bet on (and it was refunded because of f-ing rain or I would have won). Additionally, the people sitting by me were USC and ND fans and they both bet on their respective teams (HALOL at the ND fan).
I bet most regular sports better don't bet with their hearts because they know it's stupid or they've been burned doing it. But a lot of casual betters bet on their team, at least when they think their team has a favorable line.
You probably dropped 50 or something on Michigan. It takes quite a few betters like you or me to cancel out the heavy action on the other side if Vegas sets an unbalanced line. Add in all the haters ("no way Michigan covers, they suck") and you realize it takes a pretty strong fan base to shift the lines in favour of the home team.
National team soccer games are an example of games where there's often value on the opposing team with national betting services (or against England), depending on the common preception of the home squad. Hard to find the US equivalent, since not everyone is into the USMNT.
50 bucks? Please. I spent more than that on this glass of port and double on the cigar waiting for me at home.
and I took EMU +30.5. It was a great bet because it worked out but I found myself rooting for my team to not score, turn it over, or somehow otherwise screw up just to satisfy the point spread. It was horrible watching a Michigan game this way.
If you're going to bet against your team, make sure it's a tiny wager so you can root for your team to kick butt.
This ia big game for us. Need a win to continue our climb in the polls. Go Blue!
Usually closely mirror the difference between the predictor ratings used by Sagarin which can be found here:
Michigan is a straight 5.52 point favorite here, and if you add in a typical 3 pt home field advantage for NCAAF games, we get 8.52 so 9 points seems about right.
Going into the season I figured we would drop 1 of the non-conference games. SDSU will be a challenge, but we have a good shot of starting the B1G undefeated. And we seem to be improving, slowly but surely. If we can just come out in the spread and use the threat of #16 running to open up the passing and RB game, I think we'll win it. If we come out and try to establish the Power game we'll likely start slow again and it will be more 4Q drama.
We're improving slowly, but surely... during each game. Then at the start of the next game we're back to square 1.
It almost looks like it's by design. It just makes no sense to design it that way, so we know it's not true. -"Let them drive the length of the field on us for the first couple of drives and have a couple of 3 and outs to give them a false sense of security. Then, when we start stopping them, their hearts will be broken and we'll unleash the Denard."
No, I'm not buying it either. Though it does seem like in game adjustments > pre game plans. Maybe improve pregame plans?
SDSU looks somewhat scary, but the early start time does them no favors. I think -9 is a little high, but then again UM was giving 31 and nearly covered save for that early FG by EMU. Vegas tends to be pretty good on these lines after a couple of weeks. Of course, usually caveats about lines not being about winning/losing but betting.
SDSU looks solid, and kind of mirror UM's teams in many ways - dynamic playmaker at QB (Lindley more with his arm than legs), okay RB stable, and WRs that can stretch the field if needed. The defense seems okay but does struggle against the run (Army dropped 400(!) yards on them running the ball, though they held WSU to about 50 on 28 carries), and haven't really been challenged in the air much by any of their previous competition, though WSU put up a bunch of yards (368) in the air when they were behind. Also, their FG kickers is 1/3 on FGs, so there's that.
Figure SDSU will be up for this game, but UM is just the better team. Lindley is good, but a couple of blitzing LBs might make him skittish, and I don't buy that they'll be able to run the ball uber-effectively even against this meh defensive line. Offensively, UM should be able to exploit some mismatches at WR, and I really like Smith and Fitz in the backfield. Denard is Denard and nobody on SDSU will be fully prepared for him. Highish scoring game, UM 38 SDSU 21. Also, career-long 32 yard FG from Gibbons. Watch out Remy Hamilton!
SD's run defense got shredded by Army's QB, but Army runs a triple option that doesn't resemble our offense. Army also did the same thing to Northwestern. SD's win over Wazzu looks good on paper, but it was a lot closer than the score indicated and Wazzu's starting QB was out. I'm thinking M 31 SD 21.
SDSU: 28 (late touchdown, failed onside kick)
SDSU: 28 (late touchdown, failed onside kick)
But I'd have taken the points with SDSU, EMU, and WMU... ND was the only game I would have gone with the Wolverines... That is, if gambling on sports were legal everywhere...
Three years of RichRod have conditioned me to believe that we can lose to anybody, no matter how docile and/or cuty and cuddly kitten like they are. I think I was even nervous before EMU. EMU, man ... EMU!
SDSU has a lot of talent on their team. They beat a good Navy team last season who had already pounced Notre Dame and came close to beating Maryland (while inexplicably dropping one to Duke). My fear level is at 2*Pi.
If you only started feeling that way when RichRod took over, you must not have been watching when Lloyd was coaching and you definitely weren't watching in 07.
Naw man thats free money. D-Rob is gonna run wild.