UFR Predicitons
On weeks when Michigan wins an exciting game I always wish there was a way for Brian to magically post the UFRs on Monday morning. Instead I refresh my browser frequently craving more information about the game. So let's discuss what we expect to see when we see the official UFR later this week.
DEFENSE:
Is it possible to feel better about your defense in a week where they gave up 65 points and 500+ yards? I thought that the six punts, the 3-and-outs, the bad field position, and even a rare turn-over showed some signs of progress against a decent offense. Obviously they still are a woeful unit that won't turn the corner until at least 2011, but we're craving small signs. Here's what I'm guessing we'll see in Brian's UFR scores:
- Roh - Slightly positive (pressure, generated holding calls)
- Martin - Slightly positive, not beast like (still playing hurt)
- RVB - Slightly positive (his usual score, just above zero)
- Mouton - Around zero (typical Mouton with tons of highs and tons of negatives)
- Demens - Significant positive (some very solid plays and looked like a true MLB)
- Fitzgerald/Ezeh - Significant negative (some blown plays, nothing positive.)
- Rogers - Slight negative? (almost invisible despite man coverage, which is good for him)
- Avery - Significant negative (actually did some good things and nearly made a play on the long TD, but was probably to blame for at least one wheel route)
- T. Gordon - Slight positive (good pressure, no blown coverage?)
- Vinopal - Slight positive if Brian gives him lots of credit for the 3rd and 1
Obviously that can't be right. That's too many predictions of positive scores for that game. I guess when you grow to expect horrible play, you find reasons to focus on the small amounts of positive play. What am I missing?
OFFENSE:
I don't think there's much point in going player-by-player on a day when they put up 67 points and 676 yards. There were some more drops by the WR that really hurt, but overall you can't complain too much. Smith had his best day. The OL looked pretty great all day, though Lewan probably comes in negative due to the penalties.
What else do people expect to see?
November 8th, 2010 at 11:35 PM ^
your 2012 national champions.
November 8th, 2010 at 11:50 PM ^
The wheel route should have been defended by a linebacker, not Avery. I'm not sure, but I remember him saying that.
November 8th, 2010 at 11:59 PM ^
Depends on the coverage.
On one of them it looked like they were definitely in man and Mouton simply never picked up LeShoure coming out of the backfield. Not sure about the other one.
My guess is that Mouton had a solidly negative day. He lost contain on that option run for the TD and like I said, I'm fairly sure at least one of those wheel routes was a blown coverage on him. He won't put a Cam Gordon vs ND type number, but it may end up being pretty bad.
Besides the Obi and J.B. platoon and Mouton., I expect a lot of numbers to end up in that above average to below average -3 to +3 range.
November 8th, 2010 at 11:59 PM ^
I agree with Griese. LB should have had the RB on the wheel out of the backfield. Not sure if it was Demens or Mouton that blew it, though.
November 9th, 2010 at 10:51 AM ^
Steve Sharik already pointed out that the first one was on Gordon and the second one would have been on the blitzing safety on that side. Neither was on the LB's.
November 8th, 2010 at 11:59 PM ^
Looking at the replays, I'm pretty sure the biggest mistake on the first one was made by Thomas Gordon. I'm not sure about the second one(it looks as if Michigan's playing two different coverages on that play, and that usually ends poorly), but I think the second one was on Jonas Mouton.
November 9th, 2010 at 9:04 AM ^
Greg Robinson was pretty furious with Gordon after that first one.
November 9th, 2010 at 10:52 AM ^
See above. Sharik pointed out the second one was on the blitxing safety to that side.
November 9th, 2010 at 12:15 AM ^
I was going to make a similar post, we'll see who is closer. I watched the game again and this is what I saw:
Defense:
- Rogers had one epic bust and was otherwise quiet. Guess: -3
- Avery had a fantastic day (the only exception to this being the wheel route in the 2nd OT) Guess: Even
- Vinopal played like a freshman, ie. not well, but he showed some promise. Guess: -3
- Roh was much better at DE, but that's no surprise Guess: 4
- Demens had a very, very good day. Guess: 6
- Mouton had a typical day alternating great plays with terrible ones. Slightly more good than bad. Guess: 4
- Martin clearly isn't at full strength, he got blown back on double teams at least once Guess: 2.5
- Cam Gordon: Didn't see much to be thrilled or upset about. Guess: Even
- Kovacs: A lot of positives and a lot of negatives. Guess: I always think Brian is a little generous with Kovacs, I think he'll get a 2
- Banks/RVB/Patterson: Didn't pay close attention. No guess
- Thomas Gordon: No obvious failures and a good pressure. Guess: +2
- Ezeh: played well. Guess: 1
- JB Fitzgerald: eh. Guess: -2
Major caveat: I rewatched the first wheel route score over and over and couldn't come to a conclusion about what player it was on. There simply weren't enough guys covering that side of the field. Big RPS minus.
Far and away the most depressing play on defense as far as execution was on their triple option score. Kovacs blitzed himself out of the play, Vinopal crashed down on the qb when he had help on the inside, Scheelhaase promptly pitched it out to the rb who had a huge amount of space, Mouton then missed a makeable tackle, Courtney Avery couldn't get off his block and Vinopal was about to recover to make the tackle when he tripped on grass. ::sigh::
On offense I don't have as many observations, but here they are:
- Smith looked way faster and more fluid
- Huyge typically was competent, but had the worst day of the OLs
- Denard's ZR metric will not be good
- Roundtree was right when he said they brought the cbs on blitzes a lot. This complicated things when we tried to run to the edges.
November 9th, 2010 at 12:54 AM ^
Going back and looking at some of the game...RVB had a real nice day me thinks. Him and Roh were disrupting things all game long.
November 9th, 2010 at 1:46 AM ^
I thought Cam Gordon played a pretty solid game. He wasn't exceptional but he made some nice tackles in the open field, provided some pressure on blitzes, and played with passion which is something that should be admired with this team.
November 9th, 2010 at 1:03 AM ^
What are these predicitons you speak of?
November 9th, 2010 at 7:02 AM ^
Death or Glory!!!!
November 9th, 2010 at 7:32 AM ^
Small (and probably not original) comment not directed to the OP:
I wish people would stop obsessing about the total number of points. It was 45-45 at the end of regulation. That's still a @#$%load of points, but it's a more reasonable number than 65 (!!!).
November 9th, 2010 at 7:57 AM ^
They had success when they got to the outside, so our corners are liable to come in for a bit of a beating. However, deep, we stuck with them reasonably well except on the wheel routes. On the one long TD, he was in position to at least have a chance to break it up, which is way better than burned crispy, so I just don't know. I'm expecting quite a few positives AND negatives. I think the numbers in the UFR will be astronomical but average towards zero in the end (on defense).
Lewan could come in for a +500 if he'd simply settle his angry rear end down.
November 9th, 2010 at 8:11 AM ^
match those from Michigan Monday:
Linebacker Jonas Mouton had him sized up and was just about to blast him out of bounds, but for some reason Mouton slowed down and instead decided to weakly lunge for Ford's feet. He missed. It was unexplainable. Even if he tried to explain it, there's no way anything he said could suffice. All he had to do was keep running, and instead he apparently thought the jukeless Jason Ford was gonna go all Barry Sanders on him and disappear into the mists of arms and helmets.
I wondered the same thing when I watched the play live...how the heck did Mouton not take him out..... they play reminded me of one of those plays where a team is trying to let someone score who has a learning disability...
November 9th, 2010 at 8:24 AM ^
I can complain about the turnovers.
November 9th, 2010 at 9:53 AM ^
The offense will surely get its share of negatives with the turnovers obviously.
- Denard's batted ball interception was a good play by the D, a fluke catch, and probably something a more veteran QB pump fakes to avoid. I think the line let the defenders in a little quick on that screen.
- Denard's second pick was pretty bad.
- Tate's first fumble was about the point I thought we lost the game. It was a tough spot for Tate having no clue he was about to go in and having touched the ball for the first time right when he was going to pass. I don't understand why the coaches called a pass play there - let him hand it off once to get a feel for the game and settle down.
- Tate's interception didn't matter much in the grand scheme of things, but was not a good decision. Nor was his TD to Hemmingway on the deflection.
What frustrates me about Tate is that when he rolls out he never takes the dump off pass. Multiple times he had a TE or RB open just 5-7 yards in front of him but he forced it deeper down field. Sometimes it worked and sometimes it didn't - but that "making things happen" strategy gets him in trouble.
Conversely, Denard frustrates me when he waits and waits and waits for something to open up instead of just taking the ball and getting what yards he can. There were at least two occassions when he was out of the pocket and could have had an easy 5-7 yards for a first but kept waiting to throw downfield.
Both QB's need to take what they can get and come back to fight on the next play. That's something experience should help with.
November 9th, 2010 at 9:56 AM ^
http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/features/rumors/_/date/20101109#5429
According to ESPN under the Rumors section of college football it looks like Arnett is leaning towards U of M. He would be a welcomed addition to an already prolific collection of WR's.