U-M Pairwise update (through 2/25 games)

Submitted by redwings8831 on

I'm letting mfan_in_ohio create the diary at the end of the weekend but here is a quick update on what the brackets could look like after tonight. Two different brackets (the first with Merrimack/Michigan and CC/BU ties broken by comparision winner and then with the ties broken by higher RPI)

Scenario A - Comparisions as tie-breaker

1. Yale (EC)
2. North Dakota (WC)
3. Boston Coll (HE)
4. Merrimack (HE)
5. Michigan (CC)
6. Notre Dame (CC)
7. Denver U (WC)
8. NE-Omaha (WC)
9. Miami (CC)
10. Union (EC)
11. Minn-Duluth (WC)
12. New Hampshire (HE)
13. Dartmouth (EC)
14. RPI (EC)
15. Colorado College (WC)
16. Atlantic Hockey (AH)

Bridgeport:
1. Yale (EC)
8. Nebraska-Omaha (WC)
10. Union (EC)
16. Atlantic Hockey (AH)

St. Louis:
2. North Dakota (WC)
7. Denver (WC)
9. Miami (CC)
14. RPI (EC)

Manchester:
3. Boston College (HE)
5. Michigan (CC)
12. New Hampshire (HE)
13. Dartmouth (EC)

Green Bay:
4. Merrimack (HE)
6. Notre Dame (CC)
11. Minnesota-Duluth (WC)
15. Colorado College (WC)

1 seeds: #1 Yale to Bridgeport (Host), #2 North Dakota to St. Louis, #3 Boston College to Manchester, #4 Merrimack to Green Bay.

2 and 3 seeds: Teams that can bus and hosts are placed first. These are #12 New Hampshire to Manchester, #6 Notre Dame to Green Bay, #11 Minnesota-Duluth to Green Bay, #9 Miami to St. Louis, and #10 Union to Bridgeport. Now we have the following teams to place:

#5 Michigan and # 8Nebraska-Omaha with Bridgeport and Manchester as possible sites. To keep bracket integrity, #5 Michigan to Manchester and #8 Nebraska-Omaha to Bridgeport.

4 seeds: #13 Dartmouth to Manchester, #14 RPI to St. Louis. #15 Colorado College to Green Bay and #16 AHA Champ to Bridgeport.

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Scenario B: - RPI as tiebreaker

1. Yale (EC)
2. North Dakota (WC)
3. Boston Coll (HE)
4. Michigan (CC)
5. Merrimack (HE)
6. Notre Dame (CC)
7. Denver U (WC)
8. NE-Omaha (WC)
9. Miami (CC)
10. Union (EC)
11. Minn-Duluth (WC)
12. New Hampshire (HE)
13. Dartmouth (EC)
14. RPI (EC)
15. Boston University (HE)
16. Atlantic Hockey (AH)

Bridgeport:
1. Yale (EC)
8. Nebraska-Omaha (WC)
10. Union (EC)
16. Atlantic Hockey (AH)

Green Bay:
2. North Dakota (WC)
6. Notre Dame (CC)
11. Minnesota-Duluth (WC)
15. Boston University (HE)

Manchester:
3. Boston College (HE)
7. Denver (WC)
12. New Hampshire (HE)
13. Dartmouth (HE)

St. Louis:
4. Michigan (CC)
5. Merrimack (HE)
9. Miami (CC)
14. RPI (EC)

1 seeds: #1 Yale to Bridgeport (Host), #2 North Dakota to Green Bay, #3 Boston College to Manchester, #4 Michigan to St. Louis. I've heard so much that St. Louis wants U-M and think the committee would send us there over North Dakota if given the chance.

2 seeds: #5 Merrimack to St. Louis, #6 Notre Dame to Green Bay, #7 Denver to Manchester, #8 Nebraska-Omaha to Bridgeport.

3 seeds: #9 Miami to St. Louis (bus), #11 Minnesota-Duluth to Green Bay (bus), #12 New Hampshire to Manchester (host), leaving #10 Union to Bridgeport.

4 seeds: #13 Dartmouth to Manchester, #14 RPI to St. Louis. #15 Colorado College to Green Bay and #16 AHA Champ to Bridgeport. If Air Force wins Atlantic Hockey, they go to St. Louis, RPI goes to Green Bay, and Boston University goes to Bridgeport.

JustGoBlue

February 26th, 2011 at 2:28 AM ^

PWR is absolutly crazy.  We came into tonight at 6th, briefly went down to 10th at one point tonight and now we're back up to either 5 or 4...

Obviously, I like the bracket with us as a one seed better.  But I'd rather not play Miami in the second game.  They had a stretch where they played pretty bad and still do on occassion, but when they play well they are tough tough tough to beat...  I'd rather play them in a regional than North Dakota or BC, but only by a hair.  But it's better than UNH in Manchester and then BC there.  Obviously, things will change...

EDIT:  But Priceless's bracket on USCHO is my favorite...  Union and then Merrimack or Dartmouth?!  Sign me up, please!  One and done, better than they have been/we think they are yaddah yaddah yaddah still looks the easiest to me by a decent amount.  Though Miami doesn't have it so tough either.

mfan_in_ohio

February 26th, 2011 at 12:08 PM ^

A lot of this change is occurring at the TUC cliff.  Ohio State's loss knocked them down to an RPI of 0.4998, so they are no longer a TUC.  That took away Michigan's 3-1-0 record against them, which is why they dropped into a tie  for 9th when I looked at it at around 10 pm last night.  This morning, they are in a tie for fourth.  Why the change?  Well, Alaska beat Alaska Anchorage, knocking Anchorage down to an RPI of 0.4990.  So Denver loses their 3-0-1 record against the Seawolves, and Minn.-Duluth loses their 2-0 record as well. Couple that with Minn.-Duluth and Denver both losing, and Michigan now seems to win those comparisons handily.  Of course, losing the TUC comparison with a lot of teams could depend on how Michigan State, Bemidji State, Ohio State, and Alaska-Anchorage do in the playoffs.  With the change made to how TUC are determined this year, there is a lot more dependence on how these teams do, whereas last year it would have been largely irrelevant.  Also, if both Michigan and Notre Dame win tonight, ND will probably squeak ahead of Michigan in RPI and win that comparison based on a better RPI (the teams are now separated by 0.0003, and ND plays a better opponent). A lot can change from day to day or even hour to hour (as last night showed), and we won't really know anything until the end of the CCHA tournament.  All Michigan can do is win and see what happens.

Seth9

February 26th, 2011 at 1:50 PM ^

BU's RPI advantage is large enough that the NCAA would almost certainly give them position over Colorado College, particularly considering that the comparison is extremely close. However, Michigan and Merrimack are close enough in RPI that the NCAA might choose to break ties via whoever won the comparison. But that still would be a break with tradition.

Number 7

February 26th, 2011 at 2:26 PM ^

As someone points out on uscho's "bracketology" blog, there is one simple recipe for bracket chaos this year: if New Hampshire slips just a bit more, and ends up a 4-seed, a 1-seed from Hockey East gets sent to St. Louis or Green Bay. -- since NH gets to play in Manchester no matter what seed they are, so long as they qualify. I suppose they could be awarded a 3-seed, just to keep BC or Merrimack in the regional, but then some would-be 3 seed gets bumped to a four and a first round matchup with a 1-seed.

Fun times for all!

redwings8831

February 26th, 2011 at 2:52 PM ^

Yeah, if New Hampshire is a 4 and Merrimack takes the last #1 seed, then you have both HE teams going west.

Bridgeport (Yale, host)

Manchester (North Dakota - can't be BC or Merrimack due to HE #4 seed)

St. Louis/Green Bay (BC/Merrimack).

Crazy. BC plays New Hampshire next weekend and a BC sweep and a bad HE playoff could knock New Hampshire completely out of the tourney.