Tuesday Line Update: Michigan +2
Line update: The point spread for Saturday's game has already started sliding toward even: Sparty is down to a 2 point favorite.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/line-moveme…
October 11th, 2011 at 2:40 PM ^
Geezus, it will be even by Saturday!
October 11th, 2011 at 2:53 PM ^
their hangovers from this weekend. Once they sober up, we'll be the favorites.
October 11th, 2011 at 2:55 PM ^
With the typical 3-point home advantage, that would mean we win straight up. I'll take it.
October 11th, 2011 at 3:17 PM ^
but the game is in east lansing and not straight up...so why would you discount the home field advantage? sry but if we lose by 2, im not gonna be satisfied by the assertion that we would have won on a neutral site
October 11th, 2011 at 3:35 PM ^
I'm saying that if you add in Vegas' 3-point home advantage, Vegas expects us to win by one without any odds.
October 11th, 2011 at 7:08 PM ^
I get what you're saying, but that's nothing more than a moral victory since the game is at MSU.
Let's say you and I get in a fight and Vegas lists you as a better fighter by 5 points. However, a knife is worth 10 points, and I have one and you don't. Now, you could get happy that Vegas has you as the better fighter straight up, but in reality that doesn't matter because in this fight, I have the knife, so now I'm favored. If I use the knife to my advatage and win, nothing else matters.
If MSU "uses" their homefield advantage and wins by 1, it does us no good to say we would have won at home or on a neutral site.
October 11th, 2011 at 7:56 PM ^
Only set it at 3 points because thats the spread that they think will get equal money on both sides of the equation. It says absolutely nothing about which teams they think will win.
October 11th, 2011 at 3:45 PM ^
they've beat us there once in the last dcade, and that was the overtime game against Freshman Tate playing in his first road game
October 11th, 2011 at 6:27 PM ^
You're right. There was that one time when we, like the great big brothers that we are, let the little tikes get one last try in after the game was over to make them feel better about themselves. Then they went around telling everyone they had won the game. We let them have that one though, because that's what good big brothers do. They let the little guy win one every once in a while.
October 11th, 2011 at 3:19 PM ^
double post
October 11th, 2011 at 2:56 PM ^
October 11th, 2011 at 2:57 PM ^
Yep, just checked and lowering to MSU - 1.5
Hmm.
People buying Wolverines
October 11th, 2011 at 3:00 PM ^
The favorites swapping during the week as a function of disproportionate money. Exciting to see it take place live.
October 11th, 2011 at 3:24 PM ^
They haven't swapped. We went from being a 3-point underdog to a 2-point underdog.
October 11th, 2011 at 3:38 PM ^
That with BrickTop as a handle you would have seen this sort of thing before . . .
October 11th, 2011 at 7:58 PM ^
Thats funny. I get that they haven't swapped yet, but at this rate I think it's safe to assume that they will at some point prior to kick-off. I mean it's only Teusday and it's now at 1.5 how much more money would really have to be laid on MI for the spread to move another 2 points?
October 11th, 2011 at 5:28 PM ^
Michigan covered against Western Michigan*, Notre Dame, SDSU, Minnesota, and Northwestern, and came within a point of covering a BIG spread against Eastern.
*Yeah, the Western game didn't count in Vegas. But they were about to score to go up 17 ATS. So yeah.
October 11th, 2011 at 5:44 PM ^
The fact that the line is dropping means all the money is coming in on Michigan. They are dropping the line to even it out and to get some money on Sparty. I will not be surprised if it's Even or Michigan -1 on Saturday. I just get nervous when all of the money is coming in on one team. Vegas is in it to make money and the casinos usually win.
October 11th, 2011 at 6:10 PM ^
But even with the initial line it was essentially a pickem.
October 11th, 2011 at 7:02 PM ^
Sure, the casinos usually win, but the way the line moves is telling. Most of the betters in Vegas know their stuff, and if they're putting their money on Michigan, that's a good thing.
October 11th, 2011 at 7:28 PM ^
not sure it's true that 'most betters know their stuff'. Not only that, its not the pro betters that cause the line to move. For a team like Michigan, they get a lot of joe public money because, well, this is Michigan.
October 11th, 2011 at 7:34 PM ^
Michigan gets a lot more joe public money than a lot of other schools, but that's really not a big enough chunk of the betting pool to swing the line too much. Sports betting wouldn't be near as big as it is if it relied on people betting on their favorite team.
October 11th, 2011 at 8:01 PM ^
Most of these big time Vegas Handicappers are backed by millions of dollars. This is what moves the lines in non super bowl games
October 11th, 2011 at 7:40 PM ^
The casino doesn't make it's money on bets period, it makes it's money on the juice. The line moving is, as you correctly stated, their way of getting as much action on the game as possible. It really doesn't have as much to do with coercing bettors to play on one side or the other, as it does to increase overall action on the game, thus increasing their vig. Ideally for them, the casino starts the game with equal bets on both sides and walks away with their cash without a care on the actual outcome of the game.
October 11th, 2011 at 10:24 PM ^
As of 10:23PM eastern time, October 11th, Bodog has the line down to -1.0 MSU!
http://bodognetline.usatoday.com/odds/NCAAF/