Trey Burke Update
Well, a few hours ago Brian posted on Twitter according to a source that Trey was having a change of heart and also the Free Press shared the same story. Apparently in the last hour or so on twitter, pictures of Trey Burke's dorm room have been posted and unfortunately all his bags have been packed. I think it is safe to say he is gone.
Link to the picture: https://twitter.com/#!/nrothschild3/status/187762662606782465/photo/1
If Sebastian Telfair can carve out an 8 year NBA career, then I'd say burke definitely has a shot. Both guys are lightning quick, undersized guards lacking in elite athleticism, and weak defensively. Telfair is faster, but Burke has a better shooting stroke.
Granted, teams generally give lottery picks more of an opportunity to hang around and catch on than they do late first, or second round picks.
Some of the big question marks facing Burke at the next level are:
Can he get his shot off over bigger, more athletic defenders?
Can he create his own shot over bigger, more athletic defenders?
Can he faciliate effectively, and run an NBA team for small stretches at a time?
Can he defend the myriad of big and/or uber athletic point guards like, Rose, Westbrook, Rondo, Williams, Wall, Irving, etcetera, for the few minutes when he's on the floor, without getting absolutely torn to shreds?
I like listening to Sam Webb, but his gut feeling predictions are almost always wrong. When it was first made public that Burke was strongly considering the draft Sam almost immediately stated on his radio show that he would be shocked that Burke would go to the NBA. I don't understand why he would be shocked. If the kid is going to be a first round pick he'd be foolish to play another year and risk injury.
If this is a serious picture of his dorm room and he is packing it in early to head to the NBA it might be best. An education at just about any school is not cheap, but if he feels he played for U of M for free then he is a long way from being the mature young man who can handle the pressure of an adult world. There is most likely less than a month left to finish out the semester and get some education under his belt. To pack all his stuff up and head out without finishing the semester says a lot about his maturity and the way his parents raised him. It also says a lot about the way many high school kids feel about college and pro sports. Maybe they should take a long hard look at what the average length of a Pro Sports career is and what they plant to do afterward with a high school education.
*** I hope none of this is really him, but it is easy to see how kids gets taken advantage of when they have a talent that can mae money. Before you go off and tell me I don't know what I am talking about, I was a fortunate one who played for a Div. 1 Basketball team and made a choice to focus on my education because I knew that Pro Sports were a short lived thng and my chances were slim. ***
Good luck young man, you are going to need it and thanks for the fun year watching you grow.
To pack all his stuff up and head out without finishing the semester says a lot about his maturity and the way his parents raised him. It also says a lot about the way many high school kids feel about college and pro sports.
Not a popular statement to make, but I +1'd it.
I'm getting vocational training. The program lasts 4 years. It doesn't conclude with any kind of certificate but at least it's free. It's a general studies program however, so I spend a lot of term learning stuff irrelevant to my future job. People keep telling me this makes me 'well-rounded'.
Suddenly I'm told I'm likely to be hired by a company that is the best in my business. I'll get to continue my training on the job. I'll have extremely skilled co-workers to learn from. I'll get to completely focus on my tradecraft. I'll also make an extremely large amount of money.
If you're one of the majority "who go pro in something other than sports", sure, finish college. If you're headed for the pro leagues, well... where is the value in turning down hundreds of thousands (even millions) to finish? With one year at the rookie minimum, he could easily afford to head back to michigan for his degree.. he could stay for a couple masters even.
He has the potential to have an incredible season next year and shoot up the draft boards in a weaker draft, thus earning a more lucrative contract.
Unless his family seriously needs the money, this is a dumb decision. You shoot for a lottery pick. He's not even close.
Cuz I'm still a student? --- RT @Will_Griggs: @KButter5 why are you doing homework??
Not necessariy accusing Burke of quitting on his classes because who knows if that picture is real, but this is the type of maturity I like to see from players.
Holy shit, people. "Our program can't catch any breaks." "Good luck in the D league." "Young...Immature...Bad decision...blah blah blah."
How about taking the time to appreciate the kid and what he's done. He's made a big decision about something he's dreamed about since he was young. If you don't like the decision, at least respect it. Don't rag on the kid just because you won't be able to talk a little extra shit to your coworkers this offseason. This kid owes you nothing and to some of the responses here, that's what you deserve.
It seems like the majority of people here are criticizing his decision, and I don't think anyone is saying not to. The problem is that others feel the need to criticize him personally. There's a big difference between the two: everyone makes bad choices at some point, that doesn't make him or her a bad person.
You really don't owe him anything? He lead this team to a co-B1G title. You at least owe him a thank you. If now is when he wants to take his shot at the league, so be it. It's his decision. It might have been Morris last year who was so disgusted at the Michigan fanbase for the way they turned on him when he announced.
The bottom line is that Trey is making a huge mistake. The only way he is not making a huge mistake is:
1). If he happened to get injured next year.
2). If he, himself feels that he played at his peak this year and has no chance to improve upon this year's performance.
Both of those are unlikely, so he is listening to some bad advice.
In the end this all may be moot, because he could turn out to be great whether he gets drafted or not. But if you are trying to use college to set yourself up for at least one guaranteed contract in the NBA, then this decision makes no sense.
How on earth can people be claiming that with the information we have now, that this is a mistake? I present a portion of a list of things we don't know that would be important to declaring this decision a mistake:
- Official draft grade (we have only rumors)
- Actual Draft position
- Length and success of his professional career
- Trey's desire or lack there of to play ball and take classes at the same time
- Trey's appreciation of the college life, that many of us loved, but experienced much differently than he did
- Trey's monetary sitch at the end of his ball career with respects to finishing his degree
- The accurate ability to quantify his growth as a hoops player in the NBA/D-league/Europe versus in college
I am sure there are many more that I am missing, but clearly there is no way to accurately declare this decision a mistake at this point. All that is is misplaced sadness at Trey leaving. I understand the sadness, because I am a sad panda too.
Mr. Gambini?
Yes, sir?
That is a lucid, intelligent, well thought-out objection.
Thank you, Your Honor.
Overruled!
/ikeedikeed
Back to my sad panda hole.
But you are saying we cannot declare this a mistake until after it has had years to prove itself out. If you are saying we shouldn't comment on it until we are 100% certain then that is always the case. But if we all waited for that, this board would be quite boring.
"The bottom line is that Trey is making a huge mistake. The only way he is not making a huge mistake is: ..."
Nobody's saying that you should never speculate about anything ever. The point is that these incredibly condescending claims about the certainty of Trey's error are completely bogus. Congrats to SteveInPhilly for producing the first intelligent thing written on these boards about Burke's likely departure.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but at what point is it in poor form to express it? It is kind of a philosophical question: should you voice an opinion if it has no basis on accurate facts? Is it OK to espress it if is presented as an opinion and not as fact? Does it not matter how you present it or if it has any factual basis because this is the interwebs fergodsakes, and baseless speculation (and porn) are the reason Al Gore invented this thing in the first place?
Personally, I think it is in bad taste to make claims that you can't back up. That is how climate change got turned into a debate, even though science and facts come down overwelmingly on one side of the discussion. Obviously Trey Burke's future is a topic of less consequence, but if people's opinions on his decision start to become accepted as fact and the tenor of the discussion becomes negatively judgemental towards Burke or his decision making, then that could negatively affect the program and school we love. Afterall, Morris felt that he was turned on, so I don't want Burke to feel the same way.
--sometimes with incredible, ridiculous heat--on a person who just brought Michigan its first B1G championship in yonks. When they are probably not in possession of half of the very large array of variables facing the young man at this time. . . Before it's even clear WHAT he has decided.
You expect more from Michigan people. . . you certainly don't always get it.
however, we have direct evidence from our own program the past two years.
1. harris and Dmo were better nba prospects heading into the draft. i don't care what these reports say. i've seen these guys play...a lot.
2. harris went undrafted. Dmo got drafted at the end of round 2 and had to make the team, which he barely did.
3. by not being drafted in round 1, they lost the potential for add'l millions.
so, in other words, you may come up with another 100 reasons to leave, i can come up with millions of better reasons to stay.
Morris was drafted in the first half of the 2nd round, not the end.
Morris is a better prospect by virtue of size, but not, in my opinion, his game. Point guards that can't make a jump-shot will always struggle terribly unless they possess the absurd athleticism of Rajon Rondo. We agree Morris is not Rajon Rondo, I assume. Harris also could not shoot. I'm unclear what the utility of a shooting guard that can't shoot is.
Burke can, in my opinion, become a credible outside shooter. If he does that, I think he'll have an easier time finding a role.
you say burke can become a credible outside shooter but harris and Dmo can't? don't understand the logic there. i would still take harris and Dmo over trey. harris was also a great free throw shooter and that often translates to becoming a good shooter overall.
as you stated in other posts, trey isn't getting any taller. i'm 100% sure of that. yet, i still think harris and Dmo have a better chance of improving their outside shot. and i think trey can improve his shot and polish his game by staying one more year, which will translate into a higher draft pick and a better chance at guaranteed money.
Burke is starting from a position of extreme superiority in his shooting skills.
He shot 36% from 3 in college. Morris shot 22.3%, and Harris shot 31.7%.
Shooting is something that generally improves through college. Burke started at 36%, which is above average. Harris was shooting 32% as a Junior, which is below average.
you kind of proved my point. if burke stays, he improves, so it's only logical that his draft status improves. if he were to shoot 40% from 3 and marginally improve in his other areas, he would almost guarantee himself a first round selection. right now, he's just a big question mark to GMs (or little question mark).
Those that respond to this by telling Trey he is making a huge mistake are not "turning on him". They are probably concerned for both him and the Michigan program (maybe not in that order, if you are like me.
Let's be real here, most of the people saying this care more about Michigan than Burke, and a smaller segment of them are extremely butt-hurt over the fact that Trey doing what he feels is best for him will hurt Michigan. They're only concerned when an athlete's desires match up with their own, and anything less sends them into a tizzy and is rendered UNACCEPTABLE.
Fuck him and fuck you.
Intelligent response...
Agreed. Maybe I have a cynical view of student athletes, but top end college basketball players are essentially majoring in basketball. If he wants to move with his career, then I cannot knock his decision. What he mostly gains by coming back is guarenteed playing time. His draft stock could just as easily go up as it could go down, and if he's really a borderline 1st rounder, I cannot see how anyone can say this is a horrible decision.
Herein lies the problem with this situation - speaking for those of use who say he is making a mistake. I define "top end" (in terms of players with NBA potential) as a first round draft pick because they get guaranteed contracts. So that "borderline" distinction you mention is a huge one. If Trey felt he would never be a first round draft pick and that he would have to prove his way into the league, then I have no problem with this decision (other than if that is the case he should also recognize that it might not work out and he might as well get a free eduaction first rather than have to pay for one later.)
But I think most of us feel as though he would be a first rounder at some point. So, for argument's sake, let's say Trey does a Darius Morris in this draft. And as some people have commented, he makes $400,000 next year. Then it may all end after one year, or he may make a lot less in the D-League. Contrast that to if Trey stays another year and gets drafted in the first round. Even if he is the last pick in the first round of next years draft he has a three year contract worth about $2.7 million dollars. The first two years are guaranteed at about $900,000 per and the team has options on a third and fourth year.
So, I go back to my thought process which is - this is a mistake unless Trey feels like even after another year or two or three he will not be a first rounder. That does not seem to mesh with his apparent confidence in himself. So he must be listening to people say that he is a first rounder this year. All the people who routinely rank this are saying he is not. If I had confidence in myself that I could improve and elevate my draft stock a little bit, I would stay, becuse in Trey's case, if he is "borderline" that marginal improvement make a huge financial difference. The difference between pick 31 and 30 is more important, in terms of financial security than the difference between pick 1 and 30. You really want to the team to have a multi year committment to you so you guarantee yourself a couple years to get acclimated and find your role
it's this simple math that many don't seem to get. if he were 7' tall like the kid from illinois, he would be a sure first round pick based on potential. at 5'11" i think a guy like trey has to be as polished as possible in order to maximize his draft status.
couple that with the several guys that stayed back this year, his draft status would most likely (almost assuradly) be higher next year, maximizing his chance of getting into round 1.
If Trey was deciding to be a 2nd round pick this year instead of a 1st round pick next year, you could make a decent case that he was making a mistake. But that is not the decision he is faced with. Instead he must decide to stay or go based on many variables and possible scenarios, most of which will not be definitively known for years. It is absurd to use this as the default scenario, thereby unequivocally declaring his decision to go a mistake.
It seems like you are not taking this personally, not at all.
Calm the eff down.
I can want a million dollars and not be all pissed off every morning when I wake up without it.
I can want Trey to make a good decision, but if he wants to follow the bench riding route of Morris, I really don't care. I have my own life to worry about.
Why do we have to respect a decision that any reasonable person can see as completely stupid? The guy has been fed an enormous line of bullshit, and he apparently bought it. Very frustrating.
to "appreciate" anything
Am I the only one who thinks it's just a little bit creepy that we're going by and taking pictures of his room?
This is going too far.
How much for the microwave?
A 19 year old student makes what most of us consider a bad decision that will affect the rest of his life. It happens every day, just not to someone in the public eye.
I know what the hell I'm talking about! I had a daughter choose MSU over UM!
suddenly my life doesn't seem so bad
He has the right to do this. Let's wish him luck and move on.
I'm really trying to think of this in his shoes and not as a Michigan fan. He's getting guaranteed money next year in the NBA so I can't blame him for taking that but as a former sports player I would be kicking myself that I didn't even win an NCAA tourney game...especially when I think about the potential of next year's team.
Plus, the extra year of development and the increased exposure when Michigan is likely towards the top of the Big Ten (and hopefully a deep tourney run) would probably make him more money if he came out next year getting him drafted higher.
Would love to be selfish but I hope this move works for him.
he only gets guaranteed money if he gets drafted in round 1. despite the 20-35 projection, i think most rational people think he falls well below that where nothing is guaranteed.
You are a fool Trey Burke, and you will lose...everything.
I see nobody appreciates a good Harry Potter reference. Unbelievable.
I don't know what this means.
lose /= loose
