the just released schedules were a flat-out statement that the B10 doesn't believe SOS will matter in playoff selection
Trey Burke Update
April 5th, 2012 at 7:52 AM | 
I appreciate what he's done,
I appreciate what he's done,
April 5th, 2012 at 8:58 AM |
It seems like the majority of
It seems like the majority of
It seems like the majority of people here are criticizing his decision, and I don't think anyone is saying not to. The problem is that others feel the need to criticize him personally. There's a big difference between the two: everyone makes bad choices at some point, that doesn't make him or her a bad person.
Go Blue!
April 5th, 2012 at 8:08 AM |
Your last two isentences contradict each other.
Your last two isentences contradict each other.
You really don't owe him anything? He lead this team to a co-B1G title. You at least owe him a thank you. If now is when he wants to take his shot at the league, so be it. It's his decision. It might have been Morris last year who was so disgusted at the Michigan fanbase for the way they turned on him when he announced.
April 5th, 2012 at 8:43 AM |
The underlying theme for all
The underlying theme for all
The underlying theme for all commenters on this blog is that we love Michigan and want Michigan to be the best at everything. When something happens that negatively affects that, we will respond differently. Those that respond to this by telling Trey he is making a huge mistake are not "turning on him". They are probably concerned for both him and the Michigan program (maybe not in that order, if you are like me.)
The bottom line is that Trey is making a huge mistake. The only way he is not making a huge mistake is:
1). If he happened to get injured next year.
2). If he, himself feels that he played at his peak this year and has no chance to improve upon this year's performance.
Both of those are unlikely, so he is listening to some bad advice.
In the end this all may be moot, because he could turn out to be great whether he gets drafted or not. But if you are trying to use college to set yourself up for at least one guaranteed contract in the NBA, then this decision makes no sense.
"close your mouth and open your mind" - Al Borges
April 5th, 2012 at 9:03 AM |
The mind is boggled
The mind is boggled
How on earth can people be claiming that with the information we have now, that this is a mistake? I present a portion of a list of things we don't know that would be important to declaring this decision a mistake:
- Official draft grade (we have only rumors)
- Actual Draft position
- Length and success of his professional career
- Trey's desire or lack there of to play ball and take classes at the same time
- Trey's appreciation of the college life, that many of us loved, but experienced much differently than he did
- Trey's monetary sitch at the end of his ball career with respects to finishing his degree
- The accurate ability to quantify his growth as a hoops player in the NBA/D-league/Europe versus in college
I am sure there are many more that I am missing, but clearly there is no way to accurately declare this decision a mistake at this point. All that is is misplaced sadness at Trey leaving. I understand the sadness, because I am a sad panda too.
April 5th, 2012 at 9:14 AM |
To much sense!!
To much sense!!
Mr. Gambini?
Yes, sir?
That is a lucid, intelligent, well thought-out objection.
Thank you, Your Honor.
Overruled!
/ikeedikeed
Back to my sad panda hole.
"So you're telling me there's a chance. Yeah!" -- Lloyd
April 5th, 2012 at 9:28 AM |
Correct, obviously....
Correct, obviously....
But you are saying we cannot declare this a mistake until after it has had years to prove itself out. If you are saying we shouldn't comment on it until we are 100% certain then that is always the case. But if we all waited for that, this board would be quite boring.
"close your mouth and open your mind" - Al Borges
April 5th, 2012 at 9:42 AM |
Not the point
Not the point
"The bottom line is that Trey is making a huge mistake. The only way he is not making a huge mistake is: ..."
Nobody's saying that you should never speculate about anything ever. The point is that these incredibly condescending claims about the certainty of Trey's error are completely bogus. Congrats to SteveInPhilly for producing the first intelligent thing written on these boards about Burke's likely departure.
April 5th, 2012 at 9:56 AM |
I see your angle
I see your angle
Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but at what point is it in poor form to express it? It is kind of a philosophical question: should you voice an opinion if it has no basis on accurate facts? Is it OK to espress it if is presented as an opinion and not as fact? Does it not matter how you present it or if it has any factual basis because this is the interwebs fergodsakes, and baseless speculation (and porn) are the reason Al Gore invented this thing in the first place?
Personally, I think it is in bad taste to make claims that you can't back up. That is how climate change got turned into a debate, even though science and facts come down overwelmingly on one side of the discussion. Obviously Trey Burke's future is a topic of less consequence, but if people's opinions on his decision start to become accepted as fact and the tenor of the discussion becomes negatively judgemental towards Burke or his decision making, then that could negatively affect the program and school we love. Afterall, Morris felt that he was turned on, so I don't want Burke to feel the same way.
April 5th, 2012 at 10:04 AM |
pretty amazing how people see fit to pass judgement
pretty amazing how people see fit to pass judgement
--sometimes with incredible, ridiculous heat--on a person who just brought Michigan its first B1G championship in yonks. When they are probably not in possession of half of the very large array of variables facing the young man at this time. . . Before it's even clear WHAT he has decided.
You expect more from Michigan people. . . you certainly don't always get it.
April 5th, 2012 at 10:22 AM |
sure
sure
however, we have direct evidence from our own program the past two years.
1. harris and Dmo were better nba prospects heading into the draft. i don't care what these reports say. i've seen these guys play...a lot.
2. harris went undrafted. Dmo got drafted at the end of round 2 and had to make the team, which he barely did.
3. by not being drafted in round 1, they lost the potential for add'l millions.
so, in other words, you may come up with another 100 reasons to leave, i can come up with millions of better reasons to stay.
April 5th, 2012 at 10:51 AM |
Morris was drafted in the
Morris was drafted in the
Morris was drafted in the first half of the 2nd round, not the end.
Morris is a better prospect by virtue of size, but not, in my opinion, his game. Point guards that can't make a jump-shot will always struggle terribly unless they possess the absurd athleticism of Rajon Rondo. We agree Morris is not Rajon Rondo, I assume. Harris also could not shoot. I'm unclear what the utility of a shooting guard that can't shoot is.
Burke can, in my opinion, become a credible outside shooter. If he does that, I think he'll have an easier time finding a role.
wolverineliberationarmy.com/blog
April 5th, 2012 at 11:22 AM |
so
so
you say burke can become a credible outside shooter but harris and Dmo can't? don't understand the logic there. i would still take harris and Dmo over trey. harris was also a great free throw shooter and that often translates to becoming a good shooter overall.
as you stated in other posts, trey isn't getting any taller. i'm 100% sure of that. yet, i still think harris and Dmo have a better chance of improving their outside shot. and i think trey can improve his shot and polish his game by staying one more year, which will translate into a higher draft pick and a better chance at guaranteed money.
April 5th, 2012 at 11:31 AM |
Burke is starting from a
Burke is starting from a
Burke is starting from a position of extreme superiority in his shooting skills.
He shot 36% from 3 in college. Morris shot 22.3%, and Harris shot 31.7%.
Shooting is something that generally improves through college. Burke started at 36%, which is above average. Harris was shooting 32% as a Junior, which is below average.
wolverineliberationarmy.com/blog
April 5th, 2012 at 4:47 PM |
bingo
bingo
you kind of proved my point. if burke stays, he improves, so it's only logical that his draft status improves. if he were to shoot 40% from 3 and marginally improve in his other areas, he would almost guarantee himself a first round selection. right now, he's just a big question mark to GMs (or little question mark).
April 5th, 2012 at 12:36 PM |
Those that respond to this by
Those that respond to this by
Those that respond to this by telling Trey he is making a huge mistake are not "turning on him". They are probably concerned for both him and the Michigan program (maybe not in that order, if you are like me.
Let's be real here, most of the people saying this care more about Michigan than Burke, and a smaller segment of them are extremely butt-hurt over the fact that Trey doing what he feels is best for him will hurt Michigan. They're only concerned when an athlete's desires match up with their own, and anything less sends them into a tizzy and is rendered UNACCEPTABLE.
HOKEAMANIA RUNNIN' WILD
Formerly, TheLastProphet
April 5th, 2012 at 8:54 AM |
Intelligent response...
Intelligent response...
Intelligent response...
Go Blue!
April 5th, 2012 at 9:16 AM |
Agreed. Maybe I have a
Agreed. Maybe I have a
Agreed. Maybe I have a cynical view of student athletes, but top end college basketball players are essentially majoring in basketball. If he wants to move with his career, then I cannot knock his decision. What he mostly gains by coming back is guarenteed playing time. His draft stock could just as easily go up as it could go down, and if he's really a borderline 1st rounder, I cannot see how anyone can say this is a horrible decision.
April 5th, 2012 at 9:59 AM |
Herein lies the problem with
Herein lies the problem with
Herein lies the problem with this situation - speaking for those of use who say he is making a mistake. I define "top end" (in terms of players with NBA potential) as a first round draft pick because they get guaranteed contracts. So that "borderline" distinction you mention is a huge one. If Trey felt he would never be a first round draft pick and that he would have to prove his way into the league, then I have no problem with this decision (other than if that is the case he should also recognize that it might not work out and he might as well get a free eduaction first rather than have to pay for one later.)
But I think most of us feel as though he would be a first rounder at some point. So, for argument's sake, let's say Trey does a Darius Morris in this draft. And as some people have commented, he makes $400,000 next year. Then it may all end after one year, or he may make a lot less in the D-League. Contrast that to if Trey stays another year and gets drafted in the first round. Even if he is the last pick in the first round of next years draft he has a three year contract worth about $2.7 million dollars. The first two years are guaranteed at about $900,000 per and the team has options on a third and fourth year.
So, I go back to my thought process which is - this is a mistake unless Trey feels like even after another year or two or three he will not be a first rounder. That does not seem to mesh with his apparent confidence in himself. So he must be listening to people say that he is a first rounder this year. All the people who routinely rank this are saying he is not. If I had confidence in myself that I could improve and elevate my draft stock a little bit, I would stay, becuse in Trey's case, if he is "borderline" that marginal improvement make a huge financial difference. The difference between pick 31 and 30 is more important, in terms of financial security than the difference between pick 1 and 30. You really want to the team to have a multi year committment to you so you guarantee yourself a couple years to get acclimated and find your role
"close your mouth and open your mind" - Al Borges
April 5th, 2012 at 10:27 AM |
yes
yes
it's this simple math that many don't seem to get. if he were 7' tall like the kid from illinois, he would be a sure first round pick based on potential. at 5'11" i think a guy like trey has to be as polished as possible in order to maximize his draft status.
couple that with the several guys that stayed back this year, his draft status would most likely (almost assuradly) be higher next year, maximizing his chance of getting into round 1.
April 5th, 2012 at 10:40 AM |
So many scenarios, so little certainty
So many scenarios, so little certainty
If Trey was deciding to be a 2nd round pick this year instead of a 1st round pick next year, you could make a decent case that he was making a mistake. But that is not the decision he is faced with. Instead he must decide to stay or go based on many variables and possible scenarios, most of which will not be definitively known for years. It is absurd to use this as the default scenario, thereby unequivocally declaring his decision to go a mistake.
April 5th, 2012 at 9:02 AM |
It seems like you are not
It seems like you are not
It seems like you are not taking this personally, not at all.
April 5th, 2012 at 9:05 AM |
(No subject)
(No subject)
April 5th, 2012 at 9:41 AM |
Last warning
Last warning
Calm the eff down.
April 5th, 2012 at 8:45 AM |
Why do we have to respect a
Why do we have to respect a
Why do we have to respect a decision that any reasonable person can see as completely stupid? The guy has been fed an enormous line of bullshit, and he apparently bought it. Very frustrating.
April 5th, 2012 at 9:36 AM |
He hasnt been around long enough
He hasnt been around long enough
to "appreciate" anything
April 5th, 2012 at 8:05 AM |
Am I the only one who thinks
Am I the only one who thinks
Am I the only one who thinks it's just a little bit creepy that we're going by and taking pictures of his room?
This is going too far.
fomerly known as "hailtothe"
hailing from Evansville, IN...
To hell with Notre Dame.
April 5th, 2012 at 8:10 AM |
How much for the microwave?
How much for the microwave?
How much for the microwave?
'Try growing up in Texas a Michigan WOLVERINE'.
April 5th, 2012 at 8:20 AM |
A 19 year old student makes
A 19 year old student makes
A 19 year old student makes what most of us consider a bad decision that will affect the rest of his life. It happens every day, just not to someone in the public eye.
I know what the hell I'm talking about! I had a daughter choose MSU over UM!
April 5th, 2012 at 8:51 AM |
suddenly my life doesn't seem
suddenly my life doesn't seem
suddenly my life doesn't seem so bad
April 5th, 2012 at 8:33 AM |
He has the right to do this.
He has the right to do this.
He has the right to do this. Let's wish him luck and move on.
April 5th, 2012 at 8:35 AM |
I'm really trying to think of
I'm really trying to think of
I'm really trying to think of this in his shoes and not as a Michigan fan. He's getting guaranteed money next year in the NBA so I can't blame him for taking that but as a former sports player I would be kicking myself that I didn't even win an NCAA tourney game...especially when I think about the potential of next year's team.
Plus, the extra year of development and the increased exposure when Michigan is likely towards the top of the Big Ten (and hopefully a deep tourney run) would probably make him more money if he came out next year getting him drafted higher.
Would love to be selfish but I hope this move works for him.
-Eternal guardian of the Prevent (you from winning) Defense
April 5th, 2012 at 10:30 AM |
wait a sec
wait a sec
he only gets guaranteed money if he gets drafted in round 1. despite the 20-35 projection, i think most rational people think he falls well below that where nothing is guaranteed.
April 5th, 2012 at 8:39 AM |
You are a fool Trey Burke,
You are a fool Trey Burke,
You are a fool Trey Burke, and you will lose...everything.
April 5th, 2012 at 8:46 AM |
I see nobody appreciates a
I see nobody appreciates a
I see nobody appreciates a good Harry Potter reference. Unbelievable.
April 5th, 2012 at 9:16 AM |
Or the Backing Up of your
Or the Backing Up of your
Or the Backing Up of your Online Files commercial. "your going to loose everything"
All hail Hoke!
April 5th, 2012 at 10:50 AM |
I don't know what this
I don't know what this
I don't know what this means.
April 5th, 2012 at 12:28 PM |
lose /= loose
lose /= loose
lose /= loose
April 5th, 2012 at 8:49 AM |
Plan B for PG
Plan B for PG
If at first you don't succeed, skydiving isn't for you.
April 5th, 2012 at 9:07 AM |
I agree it sucks
I agree it sucks
But I can't say I think its a mistake.
I've been out of college for 10 years, and had (what I consider to be) a reasonably succesful career. During that 10 years I have made less than $850,000.
That is what the 30th pick (Ive seen Trey's evlaluations as high as 24, as low as undrafted). made in the draft last year, in 1 year. Supposing he sat on the bench for another year, he'd surprass $1.5M. I certainly won't hit that anytime in the forseeable future.
The rookie wage scale for 2011:
|
30th
|
$850,800
|
$889,100
|
$924,400
|
I went to the same high school as Trey, and I can say that if he made even a portion of that amount, he would far exceed what anyone else is earning. With the probably exception of Jared Sullinger, he will immediately be the highest earning graduate from Northland since Dwight Yoakam.
Knowing a knee injury, a bad year, or a myriad of other scenarios could put this in jeopardy, I can't fault him. And while no one is mentioning it, I'm sure the possibility of being drafted to play with his lifelong best friend is a factoring into his decision. Jared will probably be a top 10 pick, and Trey could easily go in the beginning of the second round..
Go Vikings, Go Blue, and best of luck Trey.
April 5th, 2012 at 10:12 AM |
Stop
Stop
making sense.
April 5th, 2012 at 10:36 AM |
but
but
why don't you post the avg salary of all the 2nd round draft choices from last year, plus the other guys who left early and didn't get drafted. i bet half of those guys didn't even make the nba; the other half makes the league minimum of approx $400k. so now you're looking at an avg between $200-300k for year 1. then, many of those guys will fall of the roster in year 2.
if trey stays, he's more likely to be drafted in round 1 and be guaranteed the money you note but with the potential to be higher.
April 5th, 2012 at 8:27 PM |
its all i had
its all i had
I only had average salaries for the first round. I did a quick look and couldnt find the second. I'm curious as well if you want to dig those up and share.
April 5th, 2012 at 9:20 AM |
THe issue is whether he goes in the 1st round or not
THe issue is whether he goes in the 1st round or not
Anyone who pretty much knows they are going in the first round would be dumb not to go. It is huge money, and it's guaranteed.
Getting drafted in the 2nd round is a crapshoot. Yeah, You can still make good money compared to the rest of the population. But your contract is not guaranteed and the team can just dump you on a whim.
The question really is, if he came back and improved, would he be able to get his draft stock up enough to go in the 1st round for sure?
April 5th, 2012 at 9:19 AM |
Well..
Well..
If he is gone, I wish him the best.
But the same why I 'wished' Morris good luck, I don't think Trey goes before the 40th pick or so. He is hurting himself longterm. Hope I am wrong...but when is the last time we were wrong?
neoavatara.com/blog
April 5th, 2012 at 9:25 AM |
Good decision by the kid.
Good decision by the kid.
Good decision by the kid. Trey will be fine. The MBB team probably won't be, though.
Sent From My Commodore 64
April 5th, 2012 at 9:34 AM |
Some in here
Some in here
Need to search for Bo's "The Team" speech and take a fuckin chill pill...it's Trey's decision not yours or even your child's, I hope he comes back for many reasons but more importantly to see how all of you react.
I love Michigan...
-David Molk
April 5th, 2012 at 9:46 AM |
^^^^^ Truth Bomb ^^^^^
^^^^^ Truth Bomb ^^^^^
^^^^^ Truth Bomb ^^^^^
fomerly known as "hailtothe"
hailing from Evansville, IN...
To hell with Notre Dame.
April 5th, 2012 at 9:33 AM |
My Stand on this is as follows
My Stand on this is as follows
I Care about the "TEAM" all Michigan TEAMS....anything that Hurts the Team Im against. Ive followed Michigan Teams for decades..Those players that leave early I tend to forget and they fade away. I dont even really consider them Michigan Men...They are "ME" people not TEAM people...Is that right? I have no clue but if they do something that hurts the Team I dont like it..Trey Burke leaving hurts The TEAM...period...
April 5th, 2012 at 9:35 AM |
Cross-posted from the other
Cross-posted from the other
Cross-posted from the other thread:
I'm not saying "he should have gone" because the only thing that will determine that is how he fares.
But the idea that he's underdeveloped is a bit much, in my opinion. He was, arguably, the most productive PG in the nation from a statistical standpoint, and was definitely the most productive of guys that might be in this draft. This draft is EXTREMELY thin in Point Guards. I realize Austin Rivers is a pro SG, but he played point at Duke, so here is Burke compared to his cohort in this class, using tempo-free stats to even out playing time:
Trey Burke: 105.3 ORtg, 53.8% TS%, 28.7 Arate, 18.6 TOrate, 30.6 FTrate
Austin Rivers: 104.7 ORtg, 53.8% TS%, 13.0 Arate, 17 TOrate, 45.8 FTrate (Burke was as good a shooter, a much better facilitator, equivalent risky with the ball, not as good at getting to the line)
Tony Wroten: 95.5 ORtg, 48.8% TS%, 24.5 Arate, 21.7 TOrate, 59.1% FTrate (Burke is superior at everything other than getting to the line)
Marquis Teague: 99.4 ORtg. 49.1% TS%, 25.5 Arate, 23.7 TOrate, 33.8 FT rate (Burke is superior in everything other that getting to the line, where he is nearly equal)
Tyshawn Taylor: 104.2 ORtg, 56.9% TS%, 29.7 Arate, 22.6 TOrate, 42 FTrate (Taylor grades out as slightly better in everything other than turnovers, but his usage was sufficiently smaller for Burke to provide more value - hence the higher ORtg)
From a standpoint of PRODUCTION, Burke is arguably the best PG in the draft.
The knock is that Trey is a minimum of 4 inches shorter than all these players. But staying in college won't make him grow.
wolverineliberationarmy.com/blog
I appreciate what he's done, but I also think he's making a poor decision. I don't see why one has to preclude my talking about the other. It's okay to criticize people you like.
Denard has spent the offseason working really hard and smiling at people.