Tourney Watch: Michigan Hockey up to #11 in RPI/PWR

Submitted by gwkrlghl on

After leaping up from #16 to #12 with the rout of #1 Minnesota last night, Michigan crept up another spot to #11 today as Vermont lost in the Hockey East tournament. Fellow bubble team Northeastern also lost in the HE tournament today which knocked them down a few slots as well.

Michigan is now sitting as 3 seed(!) and if they had just swept PSU and held against MSU last weekend we would've been in contention for a 1 seed. RPI is fairly volatile.

Beating PSU this Thursday is an absolute must and beating Wisconsin after that would probably put us in contention for a 2 seed as far-fetched as that seemed coming into this weekend. Just beat PSU and make the tournament

(and yes it looks like the PSU game may overlap with the Wofford game if we get the 7 PM CT slot instead of the 2 PM CT sl)

Rank Team RPI Adj RPI QWB Adj RPI W-L-T
1 Minnesota .5905 .5905 .5994 25-5-6
2 Boston College .5798 .5810* .5892 26-7-4
3 Union .5764 .5769* .5810 26-6-4
4 Ferris State .5627 .5644* .5651 27-9-3
5 Wisconsin .5561 .5571* .5613 22-10-2
6 Quinnipiac .5536 .5536 .5584 24-8-6
7 Notre Dame .5494 .5501* .5583 23-13-2
8 Massachusetts-Lowell .5505 .5506* .5554 23-10-4
9 Providence .5462 .5469* .5511 21-9-6
10 St. Cloud State .5447 .5451* .5487 21-10-5
11 Michigan .5376 .5376 .5422 18-12-4
12 Minnesota State .5386 .5386 .5405 24-13-1
13 Vermont .5360 .5360 .5396 20-14-3
14 North Dakota .5371 .5371 .5388 21-12-3
15 Cornell .5362 .5362 .5384 17-9-5
16 Colgate .5312 .5312 .5383 19-12-5
17 Northeastern .5297 .5297 .5361 19-14-4
18 New Hampshire .5248 .5248 .5283 21-17-1

 

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gwkrlghl

March 17th, 2014 at 10:25 AM ^

North Dakota lost to a comparable Colorado College team this weekend and saw their RPI drop 5 spots - they're now on the outside looking in.

Another loss to PSU would likely drop us 3-5 spots which would effectively end our season since at the very best, the top 15 are getting in. It's likely to only be the top 12-13 with teams outside of the top 16 taking auto-bids.

Gut feeling -

  • Lose to PSU -> Out
  • Beat PSU, lose to Wisconsin -> In barely
  • Beat PSU & Wisconsin -> In comfortably

Joined: 04/13/2012

MGoPoints: 72

Charlestown Chiefs

March 17th, 2014 at 11:15 AM ^

There are 6 autobids for winning your conference available.  There is 1 autobid that is guaranteed to not be a team in the top 16 of Pairwise Rankings so this year it's really a top 15 or better as the absolute threshold for having a chance.  All 5 other conferences have at least 1 team that is in that top 16 already who could win their conference and not take away an at large. 

Joined: 12/04/2011

MGoPoints: 3068

M Fanfare

March 16th, 2014 at 11:06 PM ^

The main thing besides rooting for Michigan is to hope that no strange teams win other conference tournaments, which would push Michigan closer to the margin.

Joined: 08/17/2008

MGoPoints: 4715

Wolverine Devotee

March 16th, 2014 at 11:08 PM ^

Gotta factor in the NCAA effect.

When Michigan knows an NCAA bid is on the line, they demolish teams with inferior talent and beat teams that have a better record than them. Whatever the reason be, Red's teams since 2009-10 save 2010-11, meander through the regular season and turn it on in the playoffs and have powered their way through to the NCAA Tournament each year besides last year.

I truly wouldn't be shocked to see Michigan make the championship game. If for some strange reason it isn't against minnesota, I think they'll win. Remember, it's only 3 games. Michigan ran through the playoffs last year without losing a SINGLE GAME until the final.

Joined: 06/29/2009

MGoPoints: 31528

gwkrlghl

March 17th, 2014 at 10:28 AM ^

No reason we couldn't make the frozen four and win a national title.

Maybe a lot of these teams would beat us in 2 of 3, 4 of 5, or 9 of 10 but you only play a single game. We've indeed beaten Minnesota, BC, Wisconsin, and tied Ferris. Having seen us defeat a North Dakota team 1-0 that should've beat us 6-0, I don't doubt that anything can happen once you're in

Joined: 04/13/2012

MGoPoints: 72

saveferris

March 17th, 2014 at 2:37 PM ^

How about we take all the guesswork out of it and win the whole goddamn B1G Tournament?  That said, if we lose for the third time in a season to that glorified high school travel club team, I may be officially done with Michigan hockey (not really).

Penn State has been playing Div 1 hockey for two years.  TWO YEARS.  Go out there and grind them into the ice for crissakes!

It's ludicrous that we have to worry about this or that our season even has to come down to a single game with fucking Penn State.

/rant

Joined: 07/02/2009

MGoPoints: 24841

gwkrlghl

March 17th, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^

And ran a few scenarios and it looks like Michigan will make it if we beat PSU. I even ran a scenario where there are four auto-bids are taken from outside the top 16. (All of Hockey East's final four are locks for the tourney and the ECAC has a two locks and only one of Cornell and Colgate will make it with an auto-bid).

I couldn't find a scenario where Michigan doesn't make it after beating PSU, though it's just a predictor (not sure it's 100% accurate) but in a few of those we are the last at-large in. Needless to say, a loss to PSU ends our season.

Looks like a best case scenario (winning the BTT) gets us in around #8

Joined: 04/13/2012

MGoPoints: 72

Savage

March 17th, 2014 at 1:10 PM ^

UML, Providence and Notre Dame are already in even with losses in the semis.

But New Hampshire isn't a lock -- if they win the HE title, they may end up in the top-15 anyway, but they can't end up in the top-15 without winning the title. I'd argue that still counts as "stealing a bid".
 

Joined: 04/19/2009

MGoPoints: 2