Tom Luginbill from Scout.com

Submitted by maznbluwolverine on

Tom Luginbill from Scout .com says he thinks RR will succeed at Michigan. He says the Big Tens 3 yards and a cloud of dust is longer is good enough on the national stage. Luginbill also says RR first two years of recruiting went well and says most of Michigans talent are freshmen and sophomores, singleing out Roh and Stonum as two of Michigans better players. He also says RR will need at least four years to get these players developed and some experience. Agree or disagree with Luginbill?

orillia

December 29th, 2009 at 1:03 AM ^

I have not looked at their schedule for next year- I know Uconn at home- but at tO$U, at Penn ST. home against Sparty and Wisconsin- some Mac schools mixed in. At Indiana and Purdue will not be easy- 7 or 8 wins tops

the_white_tiger

December 29th, 2009 at 1:38 AM ^

In a rebuilding year, facing the similarly mediocre teams at home is an advantage compared to facing the teams you are going to lose to anyways at home.

Essentially, the schedule is the same as last year, except with the conference and Notre Dame games flipped between home and away. Also, UConn, Bowling Green and UMass replace Western, Eastern, and Baby Seal U, UConn and BGSU are better than the teams they replace on the schedule. That being said, all three are games that should be won, but possibly a loss to UConn or BGSU. Call it 3-0.

A home-field advantage would have been great against Illinois or MSU this past year. It will be good for us next year. Having Iowa and Wisconsin at home will be good too, playing them in Ann Arbor will be far easier than playing them at Kinnick or Camp Randall. 3-1 is pretty realistic any way you look at it.

Indiana and Purdue are still not very good, so if the team improves, which it should, both of those games are probably wins although not gimmies. 2-0 is probable but 1-1 would not be unbelievable.

Ohio State and Penn State will both be good (assuming no mass exodus of Buckeyes to the NFL and that Penn State can find an able-bodied quarterback). 0-2 on the road is probable.

Notre Dame is a wildcard. It's on the road, and it's hard to see how Kelly will do. Tossup

Looking at that, the record would be 8-3 with Notre Dame being a tossup.

8-4 is the best guess, with an upset or taking care of all the same-level teams it could be 9-3. 7-5 is not out of the question either.

funkywolve

December 29th, 2009 at 1:52 AM ^

For me after the last two years, it's just tough to look at next years schedule and say there's a decent amount of games they should win.

To me UConn and ND are both toss up's. UConn's going to be a very tough opener. Like you said, who knows what ND will be like with Kelly and for some reason South Bend is a house of horrors for UM.

I'd like to think BGSU should be a win and I'd definitely UMass should be a win. I'd also like to think that Illinois at home without Juice should be a win. After that, I see MSU, Iowa and Wisky as toss up's. D'Antonio puts a tough of emphasis on the UM game and for the last two years it's worked. They've done a great job of shutting down UM.

IU and Purdue on the road could be interesting. I think RR is 1-7 on the road in big ten play with Minny in 2008 being the lone victory.

Like you, at this point I see 0-2 against PSU and OSU.

I think the offense should be decent, it's the defense that makes me worried next year.

the_white_tiger

December 29th, 2009 at 1:57 AM ^

I think RR is 1-7 on the road in big ten play with Minny in 2008 being the lone victory.

D'Antonio puts a tough of emphasis on the UM game and for the last two years it's worked. They've done a great job of shutting down UM.

Yes, but that was with two very bad teams. It is pretty fair to expect that road success as well as success against MSU will improve with a presumedly better team next year, although I wouldn't say that Michigan was "shut down" in '09 by the Spartans by any stretch.

The defense worries me too, but a good offense assuages those fears somewhat.

funkywolve

December 29th, 2009 at 2:02 AM ^

For the most part agree. As UM gets better, success on the road and against MSU should hopefully follow.

In regards to 2009 at East Lansing, I'd say that the UM offense really didn't do much of anything until the 4th quarter. It wasn't like the offense was moving the ball up and down the field against Sparty the first 3 quarters and not managing to put any points on the board. The offense really didn't do much of anything until the 4th quarter, and a lot of that was Tate improvising.

the_white_tiger

December 29th, 2009 at 2:09 AM ^

To be fair, a lot of the issues in the first three quarters were either due to self-inflicted wounds like drops or bad blocking, or due to the fact that we never had the ball. The receivers started to catch, and Tate got out of pressure, and the offense took off.

An overtime game on the road is never being shut down.

PhillipFulmersPants

December 29th, 2009 at 9:24 AM ^

a significant amount of key people? Royster, Odrick, Clark, Quarless, Lee, Hull? Suppose there's a chance Bowman will declare, too. Tough to win on the road there any time, but I have a suspicion PSU will struggle a bit next year. Their young OL seemed to come together all right and they have some talent on the outside and at RB, but I suspect they'll be hobbled at the QB position. Newsome projected as the starter, anyone know? I think he's the only one that got any significant amount of snaps behind clark. If he's like most young QBs, he'll have his ups and downs. And their D will have to rely on some unproven players. Fall is a long way away, but at this point, I don't think this is an auto-loss.

2014

December 29th, 2009 at 10:34 AM ^

2010: 8-4 (White Tiger's analysis is probably close to how a lot of us feel)
2011: BCS bowl competing for a Big Ten title
2012: Competing for a NC (Forcier a Senior, Gardner a Junior = now or never)

If RR & co. are unable to follow this trend, we should start talking about his future at Michigan. He has basically sold out the last two years in order to commit 100% to his system, I'm quasi-fine with that as long as it reaps the benefits long-term.

UM's in a ton of trouble if we don't see this trend since our roster will be full of RR's players, and if he can't win with them, who will?

CleMaize

December 29th, 2009 at 12:34 PM ^

I like this analysis a lot. IMO 2 big keys for the season are 1. beating UConn and getting off to a good start and 2. If we lose that PSU game on the road we can't come back the next week and lose to Illinois then head out to Purdue with back to back loses and a feeling similar to this year when we collapse down the stretch

Logan88

December 29th, 2009 at 7:41 AM ^

This is what I find so frustrating (annoying, actually) about the situation under RR: games against cellar-dwellers like Indiana and Purdue USED TO BE automatic W's, under RR...eh, not so much.

Huntington Wolverine

December 29th, 2009 at 9:05 AM ^

Indiana and Purdue have improved.

IU's offense was able to move the ball and score on a lot of teams this year. They almost knocked off Wiscy 31-28, got screwed against Iowa but still scored 24 pts the refs didn't overturn, and hung 20 on PSUs D). Their defense was worse than ours though.

This year Purdue beat OSU and Michigan (their first win in the Big House since the 60s?) and took Oregon down to the wire in Eugene. With one or two additional defensive stops, we win that Purdue game but they're weren't exactly a cream puff even though they had a lousy record.

dundee

December 29th, 2009 at 1:28 AM ^

i totally agree with Luginbill, but unfortunately he isn't the arbitor of RR's future. i hope the new AD is mindfull of the time it takes to completely tear down one type of system and install another. Luginbill and us fans might know that RR needs at least 4yrs, but it's not up to us.

JimBobTressel-0

December 29th, 2009 at 2:27 AM ^

When Michigan can notch 200 yards rushing, minimum, every game, and field a good-great D, we will be a powerhouse. A simple formula for success, but watching the O Line get pushed around at MSU left little hope for the win.

CriticalFan

December 29th, 2009 at 9:46 AM ^

Granted, of the 5 starting lineman, we could probably afford to lose Molk LEAST...but someone's going to be banged up by the time we play MSU, right? It is just a given. It's not like it's unforeseeable.

We can hope they do a bit better working second-stringers in this year than last.

TrppWlbrnID

December 29th, 2009 at 9:40 AM ^

i agree with luginbill's point about 3 yards and a cloud of dust being big ten history. that meme is pretty much history, unless you are wisconsin. the big ten had some of the earliest spread offenses in the country with the mid 90's purdue and northwestern teams. in this past decade, you saw ohio state, michigan, penn state all adopt the spread after spending most of the decade running successful pro-style passing offenses. one thing that wears me down is the insistence that big ten football is a "3 yards" conference.

i think that his points about young talent and RR's success being tied to how long he is allowed to stay have been saliently made on this site, previously.

HAIL 2 VICTORS

December 29th, 2009 at 1:24 PM ^

I agree we go 7-5 with Molk in the line up this year. Sadly we are on the same thin ice this year with Molk and Forcier being the difference between 8-4 (with luck) or 4-8 (without luck). Considering the entire overhaul, mallet and boren departures and the complete WASTE year 1 of the Threet and Sheridan experience 2011 is really more a year 2 then three.

Maize and Blue…

December 29th, 2009 at 6:22 PM ^

Year one no offense returning, but seven back on D (not all bought in to the program) and a new D coordinator. Year 2 O is stronger even with a true freshmen QB, not much back on D and facing the 3rd D scheme in three years. QB hurts shoulder game 4 and center is basically lost for year.
Year 3 O should be very good barring any significant injuries, D should improve with many players returning and second year in the same system. Biggest question to me is how the extremely young secondary holds up. On the bright side, Penn State, Illinois, ND, and Purdue will all have first year starters at QB and Pryor isn't exactly the greatest passer.