i get that if the season ended today we'd be on the outside looking in and that we still have a lot of work to do, but we didn't even make espn's latest bubble watch under the "work to do category".
today's espn bubble watch doesn't even list us
If we beat Illinois, we'll be on the list.
Or, if we beat Iowa and Wisconsin.
with an already solid rpi and sos. a win against the illini will get us to 17-10 and 7-7 in the #1 conference according to the rpi.
a win tomorrow and our chances improve enormously.
For the purposes of the RPI, UM is 15-10. RPI does not include non-Division I teams in the calculation. This means the win against Concordia doesn't count as far as the selection committee is concerned.
...check the resumes of the "last four in" or even the "first four out." Those teams have, at most, one win vs. the top 25, while we have more top 100 wins than almost everyone and a way tougher SOS.
And I agree with jamiemac from below that Bracketology 101 is the best individual site for predicting the field (and not just b/c they have us in the "first four out" category).
It's not espn's fault. We have made our own resume.
Haha, I know, but we can blame them anyway, right?
And I don't want to get into this but I blame a lot of people at the university of Michigan. Some gone now some still there.
I agree. Those morons who helped put a team picked to finish DEAD LAST in their conference in a position to possibly make the NCAA tournament deserve our scorn.
In 12 years. What conversation are you in sir??
Your first mistake was in taking anything ESPN says as being meaningful.
If the season were to end today, we'd be out. Plain and simple. Many bracketologists can't be bothered to predict how future games go so they do their brackets based on present results.
FWIW, I tend to prefer Bracketology101 as they try to project how things will play out and they currently have us as the First out. Shows the difference in how the two make their projections.
I wouldn't worry about it. If we don't win some of the games coming up then it's a moot point.
Endorsed by espn?
Don't think so although might be wrong. They have been referenced by ESPN before. Big difference between what they do and what Lunardi does. Lunardi just plugs in everything as is and determines a field, with little consideration to the future. He'll just update it when necessary as games occur.
B101 on the other hand will try and predict how the rest of the games will go as they make up their field. Naturally, they have us on the bubble as we're on a hot streak and have some difficult but winnable resume-building games ahead.
FWIW, B101 thinks we finish conference play 8-10 as opposed to 9-9. They've also said that if we can go 9-9, we're probably in the field.
To be fair, Lunardi usually does a pretty good job projecting the brackets.
Pretty good is an understatement. He has only gotten like 3 wrong in 4 years. Dude is amazing at his job.
Thats based on his final "prediction"
The bracket he has out right now will have MANY that are wrong come selection sunday.
But there's also drastic changes each version he puts out because he does it based on current results which aren't good for us right now.
Point is, not worth getting upset about that they aren't giving us due right now. If we can win 3-4 of our last 5 conference games then we'll be in the picture.
Yeah he does a good job when he does his final Bracketology projections. It would be a totally different set of results if you took into account his projections weeks before Selection Sunday.
When it gets to Selection Sunday I think most people could at least be somewhat close with their projections of who will make the tourney. I think it is more impressive the way B101 does it where they predict how things will play out for each team.
"One game at at time"
because we're a shoo-in, duh
Lunardi is not our biggest fan to this point-we have done enough so far to get our own fans talking tournament, but we gotta win a couple more big games before we get everyone else talking about us.
Believe it or not, some Michigan fans are unrealistic. All the other teams on the Bubble Watch in the big ten, although having similar overall records, at least have some quality victories.
Right now, I agree with Lunardi that we haven't done anything to get people talking about us. We are currently below .500 in the big ten and 0-7 against the top 25 RPI teams. Lets beat Illinois on Wednesday and then there will be a better reason to talk about us.
My expectations for the team were so low this year, I kind of feel that if we can even enter the bubble watch, it will be the pinnacle of my basketball enjoyment this season. It's like a separate season within a season. I love how my mind decides to entertain me.
I am more interested in what the Bracket Matrix says than the ESPN Bubble Watch
Per the latest Matrix, that updated last night, Michigan is in 7 mock brackets.....out of 60 total bracketologists who are tracked by the Matrix.
Obviously, that's not awesome. But all 7 votes came from the 42 mocks who have updated since the completion of Saturday's action. So, Michigan is trending with about 16 percent support among the most recent straw vote.
Not a ton of support, but MIchigan has resume games ahead in four of their last 5 games, plus the proverbial winnable road game with Iowa. If the Wolverines keep winning, avoid losing back to back games, then this support might grow,
Regardless, we all would have signed up had we been told in mid-November that MIchigan would be represented on multiple mock brackets come mid-February. I say sit back and enjoy watching this team try and accomplish it.
Here's the Matrix link, by the way: http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm
Also, for those folks not familiar with the Bracket Matrix and the dozens of mock brackets it tracks, allow me to point out one bracket in particular: Bracketology 101, known as B101 when you scan the top of the Matrix.
They dont have MIchigan in the field. But, it really has surpassed Lunardi and everybody else as the most accurate tourney projection site.
I bring it up because they said they gave strong consideration to Michigan as far as one of their final couple spots goes. In fact, they list Michigan as its last team cut from the field. If Michigan can break even over the next four, I really do feel that UM/MSU game in Crisler is going to be an elimination game for the loser. Just e-prediction.
Anyway, here is B101's writeup from Monday regarding its latest field
Best possible end to the basketball season - beat MSU to make the dance and lock them out. 2 for 1.
Unlike those idiots in EL, I'm definitely cheering for them if they can get us a result likely to push us into the tourney.
I will never understand the MSU fans cheering against us during The Game.
I don't want people to start thinking that this season is a failure if the team doesn't make the tournament.
Yeah, that could be a concern.
All things considered, I don't think anyone pictured us running through feasible scenarios to get in to the tournament in mid-February.
Barring epic collapse, this team will go to the NIT and that's a job well done for this team, this year.
It is pretty frustrating that teams like Clemson (6-5 record in a worse conference, RPI in the 70's, and we beat them on their home floor) are included and we aren't, but whatever. The committee certainly isn't going to forget about us if we deserve to be in.
I think one thing to be encouraged about with this team is that of our 16 wins, we really haven't stolen games that we 'should have' lost. We made a big comeback late vs. Penn State but as the final minutes ticked away we were winning.
With the exception of @ Indiana, @ Northwestern, we've really been in every game. Purdue we were leading at the half before we crumbled, Wisconsin we were in it until early 2nd half as well, and the rest of the final scores were single digit losses. This is a 16-10 team that could easily be 18-8 or 19-7, but there aren't as many games you could point to saying 'we really should have lost this but we didn't.'
Does any of that matter? Maybe not, but I think it's encouraging that we are playing our best basketball of the season right now and we are likely going to be in 4 or 5 2nd halves of these last 5 regular season games keeping these games close with a chance to win down the stretch. That's all you need right?
Michigan was never really in the game against Purdue. Purdue shot lights out against Michigan and their pressure man defense has clamped down on Michigan. The game obviously resulted in a blowout.
I'd ignore Bubble Watch, seeing as Lunardi has Butler as one of the first four out (i.e. squarely on the bubble) yet Bubble Watch still doesn't see fit to include them. Frankly, that's a far more glaring error than not including Michigan right now.
We'll have a much more valid complaint if they beat Illinois and Iowa on the road this week. At that point, they'd have no more opportunities to add a "bad loss" unless they gacked up the first BTT game in a 6-11 or 7-10 matchup, and would add a nice road win over a solid team in Illinois.
For the record, Lunardi actually isn't all that accurate. I wish I could find the article, but his accuracy is built on guessing the teams that make it in the tournament, not on their actual seeds. When it comes to guessing inclusion AND seeding, prognosticators like Jerry Palm and Shawn Siegel are much more accurate.
Michigan controls its own destiny right now. Win and they are in it is that simple.
With the Big Ten the nations toughest (or 2nd toughest, depending) conference, a .500 record might gloss over the lack of signature wins.
Michigan is 58th in RPI
Illinois is 40th, Wisconsin is 18th, Minnesota is 36th, and Michigan State is 47th.
Plenty of opportunity ahead.
This is the same ESPN that predicted the Great Stock Market Crash of 1966, right? They later said that they were correct, but a math error led them to the 37-year error, yes?
I can understand being frustrated about not being listed given some of the other teams mentioned. I do wonder where he would put us with wins over Illinois and Iowa. The ball is in Michigan's court so to speak. Looking forward to a hard fought game tomorrow.
CBS has us on their watch list. It was updated today. Big game tommorow. Win it, and the tourny brackets will include the boys in blue!
16-10. RPI 58. SOS 18. 7-9 Top 100. 9-1 >100. Not a tournament team right now but a bad team?
This poster is bad. I know we are all Michigan fans but this writer is not good. At all. He doesnt deserve a screen name and with another idiodic post like the one above he shouldnt be allowed to have an avitar either. Other posters COULD be readible but this moron has proven himself to be weak, at best.
Nothing wrong with that.
But we aren't talking about whether or not random internet poster thinks they "deserve" to be there, we're talking about the perception of their chances of making the tournament.
And like it or not, that chance exists.
So Michigan's resume looks worse than some of the midmajors who have worse RPI's and SOS's than Michigan? For example...Richmond...They beat Purdue very early on, and that's it. RPI is in the 70's and a SOS in the 150's. Yet they should be in because....? Look at Virginia Tech and I will ask the same questions. The point is, this Michigan team is not bad, not when compared to the rest of the nation. They went through some growing pains, like 99% of teams do. To say they do not deserve to be in the tournament makes no sense when their resume looks better than a handful of other teams who are almost assured to make the tourny.
The resume isn't bad, it's the 0-6 or 0-7 (whatever it is) against the top 25 that will end up killing us.
RPI/SOS is good, the record's not bad in the #1/#2 toughest conference but we have no good wins. The only top 50 win is against Harvard who is barely in the top 50. That won't impress the committee.
But for people to say we're not on the bubble or don't deserve to be there is plain ignorant. Gun to my head, I think we end up in the NIT but a .500 record in the Big Ten gives us a decent shot at the tourney.
Tonights loss by Marquette sure helps out a lot. As did VCU losing big at home. As long as the right teams keep losing, Michigan keeps winning, things will turn out ok. Of course, I will ask the question...NCAA tourny where we are a year or two away from really making a run, or the NIT with the chance to win and gain valuable tournament experience? Just a thought a friend, who is a Texas Tech fan, asked of me today....
MSU is in the top 50 as well. Plus, 4 of our last 5 games are against top 50 rpi teams. Then there is the B10 tourney. This is why at this point pointing to our lack of top 50 wins means nothing. I am pretty sure no one thinks we will go to the tourney if we lose out. If we win 3 our of the next 5 (like most predict will get us into the tourney), then we will probably have 2 more top 50 victories to go along with whatever we do in the B10 tournament.
ESPN only skims the surface of topics and offers no real insight.
In other news, water is wet.