Thursday Bubble Guide

Submitted by ijohnb on

Of course we need a win, but here are the rest of the games that could impact us on Selection Sunday:

Arkansas v. Florida 1:00 PM SECN - At 18-13, a loss here takes Florida out of the conversation completely.

St. Louis v. George Washington 2:30 PM NBCS - One of Jerry Palm's last four in, GW would be out of the picture with a loss here.

Tennessee v. Vandy 3:00 SECN - Vandy looked horrible against A&M, and hovering right around the last 4 in, a second straight loss would greatly sour their resume.

Penn State v. Ohio State 6:30 ESPN2 - Would be helpful if the Buckeyes went out quietly.

California v. Oregon State 11:30 FS1 - I think Oregon State is in the field on solid ground, but you never know. 

Also, hope for chalk in every mid-major conference tournament.

Go Blue.

 

 

 

MGoBoard
Basketball

julesh

March 10th, 2016 at 11:06 AM ^

They are italicized and bold. As a reader it looks like we should be rooting for the bold teams. Just giving you some usability feedback.

Joined: 11/28/2011

MGoPoints: 21974

M-Dog

March 10th, 2016 at 11:10 AM ^

So, if we beat NW - and only NW - could enough bubble teams ahead of us lose that we would still get in?

Or is there such a backlog of bubble teams that would jump ahead of us if we lose to IU that there are not enough games left to play to wipe them all out?

 

 

Joined: 07/06/2008

MGoPoints: 256985

ijohnb

March 10th, 2016 at 11:18 AM ^

you ask me (and about one or two other people on the blog in total), I think there could be enough carnage today alone that could get us in to a play-in game barring any unforeseen deep run in a conference tourney by a real dark horse.  I think at this point, two losses out of Tulsa, Vandy, Florida, GW and UConn and either Valpo or Monmouth getting snubbed would get us in if we beat NW.  I think the Indiana is an up-side only game, i.e. if we win today, I think the Indiana can only help us unless they beat us like a drum (entirely possible).

However, if you ask basically everybody else, we need Indiana no matter what. 

Joined: 09/21/2009

MGoPoints: 69986

ak47

March 10th, 2016 at 11:20 AM ^

It all depends what a NW does for us.  If we jump teams like Valpo, monmouth and st marys with a win today its possible.  If we are still behind those teams in the pecking order tomorrow morning even with a win it will take a win against indiana no matter what.

Joined: 05/05/2011

MGoPoints: 33614

PurpleStuff

March 10th, 2016 at 11:44 AM ^

Really depends on the guys in the room and how closely they adhere to the math.  A team like Texas Tech just lost to a team with an RPI above 180 and finished 9-10 in the Big 12.  But the math says they are solidly in.  Meanwhile we have a bunch of wins against teams ranked in the low 100's that don't look as good as wins against teams in the 80's and 90's. 

Other teams on the bubble lack the quality wins we have and have bad losses.  St. Mary's lost to Pepperdine twice (100+ RPI) and their only top-50 wins are against #47 Gonzaga (went 2-1 against them).  VCU has top-50 wins over St. Bonaventure and St. Joe's, and two losses to teams ranked 150+.  Akron doesn't have a top-50 win, and has 6 losses to teams ranked 100+.  Providence has a couple of good wins (Arizona and a split with Villanova) but three losses to teams ranked 100+.  Wichita State has one top-50 win (Utah).  UNC Wilmington didn't play a top-50 team and has 5 losses to teams ranked 100+.  Princeton has one top-100 win.  So does Yale (they split their games with each other).  Pitt has top-50 wins over Duke and Notre Dame (#37), but two losses to teams ranked 100+

Yet the RPI math puts all of these teams comfortably ahead of Michigan.

3 top-25 wins over major conference programs (Maryland, Purdue, Texas), and a worst loss on the road against a team ranked #76 (and loaded with blue-chip talent) seems hard to ignore, but the numbers don't help us.

Joined: 04/21/2009

MGoPoints: 15969

jcouz

March 10th, 2016 at 9:08 PM ^

Michigan's 21-12, 11-9 in BTen looks decent but this conference was shit at the bottom and that is where they got 9/11 conference wins. At some point, Michigan needs to put forth more evidence that they can beat teams in the field. A win against Indiana is a must for this team to have any hope on Sunday.

Joined: 07/08/2011

MGoPoints: 3246