Thoughts on the basketball game...or why Michigan will beat OSU in Ann Arbor
I started typing up my thoughts on the OSU game and realized that what I was putting down were the reasons why Michigan will beat OSU in Ann Arbor. Those reasons, for your enjoyment, edification, and possibly even sexual gratification, are below.
You may ask at this point why you care about my thoughts on Michigan basketball. In response, I direct you to the fact that I am the captain of a Chilean submarine, one of the world’s top 100 wiffle ball players, and a relative of Cazzie Russell (in the sense that all humans – or proto-humans – originated in a small band in Africa and therefore are all distant relatives). I also have 3700-something Mgopoints, which means that my IQ is exactly that high. Anyway, on to my thoughts…
- Michigan lost in large part because it simply didn’t box OSU out. Michigan has been better about this in other games, and the loss of Morgan to foul trouble obviously hurt severely on this front. I thought that Morgan played Sullinger to a draw in the first half. This brings me to my next point…
- Two of the calls against Morgan were awful. A player should not be called for a foul when an opponent jumps into him. I don’t think that those plays should have been charges either – they should have been nothing. Big Ten refs are aware of the possibility of the no-call - How many times have we seen Trey Burke hit the ground after finishing near the rim this year with no foul called?
- Big Ten refs are always somewhere between poor and horrendous, but they’re usually pretty even sided in their awfulness. Sunday, though, they took away whatever chance Michigan had.
- OSU doesn’t have a particularly impressive perimeter game. Craft is a very good player, but he’s not a particularly threatening offensive presence. More, Buford disappears at times and doesn't create for others. Michigan showed that it can defend the post against OSU as far as denying entry passes. They just have to box out. Do this, and OSU won't score much.
- Michigan badly missed Horford on Saturday. McLlimans and Smotrycz can’t be counted on to secure rebounds like Horford can be.
- Deshaun Thomas’s flop was absurd. It should have been a technical foul.
- Michigan won’t (can’t –right?) shoot as badly the next time the teams play.
Since some of the above sounds like sour grapes, I should say this: I think that OSU is the better team. But I also believe that Michigan will play much better against OSU in Ann Arbor (especially if Horford comes back) and win the game. So be it...And now I must dive back to the bottom of the sea so that the Argentine ships do not detect my sub.
January 30th, 2012 at 10:56 AM ^
Today is a new world.
Seriously, though, not all of us are logged onto the blog at all times. Please take this as an invitation for discussion for those of us who were not logged on yesterday because, for example, we were in submarines.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:01 AM ^
Submarines in Dayton? I call bullshit.
January 30th, 2012 at 10:50 AM ^
you will get killed just like in East Lansing. deal with it
January 30th, 2012 at 11:24 AM ^
Shouldn't you be flipping burgers?
January 30th, 2012 at 12:20 PM ^
Read between the lines. No burgers to be found at Subway.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:29 PM ^
There are no burgers on my submarine.
January 30th, 2012 at 10:53 AM ^
January 30th, 2012 at 10:58 AM ^
Michigan played their ass off, but that defense was just too long and athletic. It would have been interesting to see if we had enough gas left in the tank if Stu could have hit that 3 when we were down 7.
If Morgan wasn't in foul trouble and could have actually played defense the way he wanted to down the stretch we may have had a chance. I wish THJ would be more assertive and go to the basket more, he has the ability.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:02 AM ^
That three could have made the game a very different one.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:04 AM ^
You obviously weren't on the board yesterday or you'd already know we are highly unlikely to win another basketball game this year, much less the OSU rematch. Through our careful and well reasoned analysis of the game the following conclusions were drawn:
1. We're soft and not nearly as manly as OSU
2. Evan sucks
3. Big Ten officials have conspired to make us lose. They are all out to get us for some yet unexplained reason
4. Stu sucks
5. JB sucks
6. Trey, while pretty good, is a freshman and no team worth it's salt is led by a freshman for God's sake
7. We have no bench
8. OSU "wanted it" more than we did
Sorry to burst your optomistic bubble but facts are facts and our crack team of basketball insiders have reached a verdict.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:08 AM ^
I guess I need to find some other team to follow for the rest of the year. Does Maine have a basketball team?
January 30th, 2012 at 11:06 AM ^
Basketball analysis that complains about officiating isn't good analysis. This game wasn't officiated any better or worse than a thousand other big ten games. Keep in mind that Sullinger had a couple of questionable foul calls in the first half.
I don't understand the hating on the Thomas "flop". 1) It wasn't even that obvious that it was a flop and 2) basketball players flop all the time on attempted charge calls and 3) Thomas was called for a foul (which itself could have been questionable).
The game was lost because Novak/Douglass/Smotrycz just don't match up well with the likes of Buford, Thomas or even Smith.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:25 AM ^
Smotrycz could have been ejected for that play, as was Manny Harris a couple of years ago. It wasn't your typical would-be charge. The bird-like flapping of his arms as he fell to the floor was also just undignified.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:01 PM ^
Last year I thought we were outplaying Ohio going into half and the refs went on a Ohio foul binge to keep them in the game. This carried over into the second half and allowed Ohio to pull away. This year I didn't feel that way. We didn't lose that game because of officiating (although no one normally ever does). Sullinger was in foul trouble for parts of the game on calls that generally go as no calls in home games. This allowed us to rebound much more effectively. Also, Morgan doesn't do a good job of boxing out smaller guys; it seems he isn't quick enough to adjust to quicker guys. There were a couple of times Morgan was just as bad as Smot on boxing out, although he boxed out Sullinger well (and generally played extremely well against Sullinger; he is coming along well).
We aren't as good, especially on the road. If we hit a few more shots and got a few more of those scrambles that led to offensive rebounds for Ohio we could have won or at least lost by a closer margin. Also, for all the knocking on Stu, Smot, Novak, etc. I don't think people are criticizing Burke enough. He has too many possessions which are wasted possessions or turnovers because he is a freshman and lacks experience and awareness of his ability to penetrate and kick it. Even when he doesn't turn it over he puts up some really bad shots that do not help the cause. He did this a couple of times when we were getting close. This is to be expected since he is a freshman who plays 96.75% of the game. We are really missing Morris and his ability to hit the wide open guys on the perimeter after penentration.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:26 PM ^
I remember the foul binge last year - I believe we were in the bonus in the second half before they had a team foul. That was home cooking. This year there were a handful of bad calls but nothing game-changing.
January 31st, 2012 at 1:22 PM ^
Morgan played eight minutes in the second half. Likely no one insists we win otherwise, but yes--mitigating factor--whether you rule out fouls as legitimate discussion topic or no.
Fouls might or might not be called fairly in a general sense while one has an especially big impact. Refereeing really can be awful in the B1G, and if you look at these guys' schedules during bball season, you get some reason why that might be the case--they often work 25 days in 30. Nuts. We should probably pay both cops AND referees more. My wife would add teachers.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:06 AM ^
I thought the officiating was pretty damn good. You point to a call against Michigan I guarantee there is one OSU fans can point to.
I think I only got frustrated with a call once, and in those situations you have to realize that A: you're biased and B: you don't have the view/angle that that ref has.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:11 AM ^
I thought yesterday was not the typical game, though. We could argue all day about yesterday's game, but I will point out the following: Sometimes refs really do favor one team. OSU was given a huge advantage when it played recently at Nebraska. My OSU-fan friend described the advantage given to OSU as "crazy." Another example: Bob Knight used to have a heck of a lot of friendly calls in Assembly Hall...My only point being, every game is not called evenly.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:15 AM ^
I too thought the refs did a good job and that we didn't get home cooked unlike the IU game this year
January 30th, 2012 at 1:33 PM ^
shot 16 ft before we hot our first one.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:07 AM ^
Hate to break it to you, but neither do we.
Considering all the local & MGoBlog hype about him, Smotrcyz is the biggest disappointment of the year up to this point. Of course way it's too early to truly label him a bust, but in terms of what he was supposed to provide, it's been ugly.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:12 AM ^
I think they're better than any combination that OSU has on offense.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:53 PM ^
I will take Sullinger and William Buford, please and thank you
January 30th, 2012 at 11:21 AM ^
That can manufacture a basket when they absolutely need one. I don't think they have a player that can go and score 30 points on a night where they need it. Now the argument in college basketball is whether or not you really NEED a player like that when you play great defense and have an overall solid team. We pretty much handled Sullinger with hardly any bigs on the roster.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:12 AM ^
I believe Beilein has the team headed in the right direction, but this team has shortcomings among the starters and very little depth. Every now and then you come across a team that has more talent and solid coaching. At the moment, that is Ohio. It is no disgrace to lose to a better team.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:21 AM ^
The main reason Michigan lost that game is because they allowed themselves to be bullied in the paint by Sullinger, Smith, and to a lesser extent, Buford. The next game Michigan must secure the boards better, or it will result in another loss. My over under on offensive boards is 3...if Michigan allows 3 or less offensive boards they will win; if OSU gets 4 or more, they will win.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:39 AM ^
Ohio just manages to get great players every year. I am convinced that they do this the same way the football team has for year: by providing illegal benefits. They usually have a lot of players on their way to the NBA, and are especially good at getting the big guys to go to their school.
Consequently, until Michigan gets their personnel level higher or Ohio's goes down, Michigan has to play a near-perfect game to beat them. It hasn't happened yet, but it always can. John Beilein has done a great job with the talent he has been able to attract to Michigan.
Now, with new facilitles and a very good recruiting class coming in, the Wolverines might start beating Ohio, as early as next year. Also, remember that until this year, Wisconsin was the nightmare matchup, and Michigan finally found a way to get it done against them.
Michigan has found a way to beat Sparty and Wiscy. It might take a bit longer to beat Ohio, but it will happen.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:53 PM ^
Shut up.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:52 AM ^
I think OSU is just a tough matchup for us. I do expect us to play better in general next time around, and we might have Horford which would help. At the same time, OSU almost certainly will shoot better from three next time (they were 3-15). As bad as we shot from downtown, we still were 12% better than them from there.
As UMHoops notes, OSU is by far the conference leader in defensive efficiency. What they did to our offense was not out of character for them. When you compare our offensive and defensive margins with theirs, Saturday's result becomes a lot less surprising.
http://www.umhoops.com/2012/01/30/big-ten-roundup-january-30th-2012/
On the plus side, it's remarkable that we held MSU, the conference's most efficient offense, to 59 points.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:55 AM ^
Horford ain't going to play this season. However, it seems like the Big Ten refs are almost making it so that home court will hold. The Big Ten is seen as the best conference in America because of that, and of course they want to keep it that way. If home court keeps winning like it has been, the race for the Big Ten regular season title will come down to the wire.
We played them better than anyone has played them at home. John Beilein was even frustrated with the fouls and free throw disparity. When THAT GUY is frustrated about something, and even makes some sarcastic comments to the media about it, I know that it's not just fans making excuses. If we can knock down more shots, Morgan stays out of foul trouble, Novak scores and gets Novak charges and Evan makes something fall in the basket and actually plays defense we'll take em down at Crisler.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:56 AM ^
The authors of mgoblog have done a great job documenting UM's struggles in the Big10 season. Everything they have pointed out came to fruition yet again. UM has struggled to knock down the perimeter shot, generate offensive rebounds, go to the free throw line, and rebound on the offensive end. UM did play scrappy defense and had a game plan for frustrating Sullenger.
I cannot see UM winning in Ann Arbor if the errant shooting is not fixed. Hoford coming back is not enough. If UM can start shooting again and Hardaway gets hot, I think they can beat anyone in AA.
January 30th, 2012 at 12:43 PM ^
we have an opportunity to beat OSU in A2, since none of us knows how that game will turn out, we can only wait and see. The game at OSU was basically even with 5 to 7 minutes to go, so under the same circumstances in A2 we have a reasonably good shot to steal one.
Better to concentrate on the game Wed vs Indiana and Sunday at MSU.
January 30th, 2012 at 1:59 PM ^
only Tim, Trey, and Morgan were ready for the game. I mentioned that seniors have to show up, which they did not. Cant wait to see them in Ann Arbor.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:24 PM ^
<br>I don't think um can win if the officials let the game be that physical, even at home. I don't think it was poorly officiated. Every game has a slightly different tone set by the refs. If it is physical, um will lose. If it is tight like osu at Indiana, I'm has a good chance.
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<br>About the lack of boxing out. Um chose to deny sullinger, period. There was a great example where Morgan ran away from his guy to double box out sullinger. The ball rebounded the other way for an uncontested put back. That's just strategy not working out. Not poor execution.
January 30th, 2012 at 2:56 PM ^
I thought the officiating was fine. I agree that one Morgan call was questionable, but Sully also had one random call that made him sit for a period of time. The only difference is that OSU has solid backups... we don't. With like 8 min left in the game we had Christian, Vogrich, and McLimins in the game. They aren't bad players, but they don't have the experience to be put into an away game at OSU.
I thought we did a decent job as a team rebounding. The issue is that we were doubling and rotating all over the place. Our first-shot defence was excellent... but it left their athletic players alone on the weak side to rebound. With the personal we have we can either let Sully go 1on1, or hope that Novak can get a weakside rebound against a guy who is far more athletic.
OSU presents all of these matchup problems, which is why they are a great team, and we are only a good team. I hope that next year with a deeper bench we will become a great team.
January 30th, 2012 at 3:12 PM ^
The longer Horford is injured the better basketball player he becomes. I like Horford, but he ain't arrived yet, and most likely would have made a minimal difference in yesterday's game. I would redshirt Horford at this point, but what do I know. OSU whupped that ass, like they tend to do lately against most everyone, especially in Cbus, but we will get another shot at them in AA.