Thoughts on the basketball game...or why Michigan will beat OSU in Ann Arbor

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/um-ohio-postgame-thoughts

I think i want to win next time

Michigan played their ass off, but that defense was just too long and athletic.  It would have been interesting to see if we had enough gas left in the tank if Stu could have hit that 3 when we were down 7. 

If Morgan wasn't in foul trouble and could have actually played defense the way he wanted to down the stretch we may have had a chance.  I wish THJ would be more assertive and go to the basket more, he has the ability.

You obviously weren't on the board yesterday or you'd already know we are highly unlikely to win another basketball game this year, much less the OSU rematch.  Through our careful and well reasoned analysis of the game the following conclusions were drawn:

1. We're soft and not nearly as manly as OSU

2. Evan sucks

3. Big Ten officials have conspired to make us lose.  They are all out to get us for some yet unexplained reason

4. Stu sucks

5. JB sucks

6. Trey, while pretty good, is a freshman and no team worth it's salt is led by a freshman for God's sake

7. We have no bench

8. OSU "wanted it" more than we did

Sorry to burst your optomistic bubble but facts are facts and our crack team of basketball insiders have reached a verdict.

Basketball analysis that complains about officiating isn't good analysis.  This game wasn't officiated any better or worse than a thousand other big ten games.  Keep in mind that Sullinger had a couple of questionable foul calls in the first half.

I don't understand the hating on the Thomas "flop".  1) It wasn't even that obvious that it was a flop and 2) basketball players flop all the time on attempted charge calls and 3) Thomas was called for a foul (which itself could have been questionable).

The game was lost because Novak/Douglass/Smotrycz just don't match up well with the likes of Buford, Thomas or even Smith.

I thought the officiating was pretty damn good.  You point to a call against Michigan I guarantee there is one OSU fans can point to.

I think I only got frustrated with a call once, and in those situations you have to realize that A: you're biased and B: you don't have the view/angle that that ref has.

Hate to break it to you, but neither do we.

Considering all the local & MGoBlog hype about him, Smotrcyz is the biggest disappointment of the year up to this point. Of course way it's too early to truly label him a bust, but in terms of what he was supposed to provide, it's been ugly.

I believe Beilein has the team headed in the right direction, but this team has shortcomings among the starters and very little depth.  Every now and then you come across a team that has more talent and solid coaching.  At the moment, that is Ohio.  It is no disgrace to lose to a better team.

The main reason Michigan lost that game is because they allowed themselves to be bullied in the paint by Sullinger, Smith, and to a lesser extent, Buford.  The next game Michigan must secure the boards better, or it will result in another loss.  My over under on offensive boards is 3...if Michigan allows 3 or less offensive boards they will win; if OSU gets 4 or more, they will win.

Ohio just manages to get great players every year.  I am convinced that they do this the same way the football team has for year: by providing illegal benefits.  They usually have a lot of players on their way to the NBA, and are especially good at getting the big guys to go to their school.  

Consequently, until Michigan gets their personnel level higher or Ohio's goes down, Michigan has to play a near-perfect game to beat them.  It hasn't happened yet, but it always can.  John Beilein has done a great job with the talent he has been able to attract to Michigan.

Now, with new facilitles and a very good recruiting class coming in, the Wolverines might start beating Ohio, as early as next year.  Also, remember that until this year, Wisconsin was the nightmare matchup, and Michigan finally found a way to get it done against them.  

Michigan has found a way to beat Sparty and Wiscy.  It might take a bit longer to beat Ohio, but it will happen.  

I think OSU is just a tough matchup for us.  I do expect us to play better in general next time around, and we might have Horford which would help.  At the same time, OSU almost certainly will shoot better from three next time (they were 3-15).  As bad as we shot from downtown, we still were 12% better than them from there.

As UMHoops notes, OSU is by far the conference leader in defensive efficiency.  What they did to our offense was not out of character for them.  When you compare our offensive and defensive margins with theirs, Saturday's result becomes a lot less surprising.

http://www.umhoops.com/2012/01/30/big-ten-roundup-january-30th-2012/

On the plus side, it's remarkable that we held MSU, the conference's most efficient offense, to 59 points.

Horford ain't going to play this season. However, it seems like the Big Ten refs are almost making it so that home court will hold. The Big Ten is seen as the best conference in America because of that, and of course they want to keep it that way. If home court keeps winning like it has been, the race for the Big Ten regular season title will come down to the wire.

We played them better than anyone has played them at home. John Beilein was even frustrated with the fouls and free throw disparity. When THAT GUY is frustrated about something, and even makes some sarcastic comments to the media about it, I know that it's not just fans making excuses. If we can knock down more shots, Morgan stays out of foul trouble, Novak scores and gets Novak charges and Evan makes something fall in the basket and actually plays defense we'll take em down at Crisler.

The authors of mgoblog have done a great job documenting UM's struggles in the Big10 season.  Everything they have pointed out came to fruition yet again.  UM has struggled to knock down the perimeter shot, generate offensive rebounds, go to the free throw line, and rebound on the offensive end.  UM did play scrappy defense and had a game plan for frustrating Sullenger.

I cannot see UM winning in Ann Arbor if the errant shooting is not fixed.  Hoford coming back is not enough.  If UM can start shooting again and Hardaway gets hot, I think they can beat anyone in AA. 

we have an opportunity to beat OSU in A2, since none of us knows how that game will turn out, we can only wait and see.  The game at OSU was basically even with 5 to 7 minutes to go, so under the same circumstances in A2 we have a reasonably good shot to steal one.

Better to concentrate on the game Wed vs Indiana and Sunday at MSU. 

only Tim, Trey, and Morgan were ready for the game. I mentioned that seniors have to show up, which they did not. Cant wait to see them in Ann Arbor.

I don't think um can win if the officials let the game be that physical, even at home. I don't think it was poorly officiated. Every game has a slightly different tone set by the refs. If it is physical, um will lose. If it is tight like osu at Indiana, I'm has a good chance.



About the lack of boxing out. Um chose to deny sullinger, period. There was a great example where Morgan ran away from his guy to double box out sullinger. The ball rebounded the other way for an uncontested put back. That's just strategy not working out. Not poor execution.

I thought the officiating was fine.  I agree that one Morgan call was questionable, but Sully also had one random call that made him sit for a period of time.  The only difference is that OSU has solid backups... we don't.  With like 8 min left in the game we had Christian, Vogrich, and McLimins in the game.  They aren't bad players, but they don't have the experience to be put into an away game at OSU.

I thought we did a decent job as a team rebounding.  The issue is that we were doubling and rotating all over the place.  Our first-shot defence was excellent... but it left their athletic players alone on the weak side to rebound.  With the personal we have we can either let Sully go 1on1, or hope that Novak can get a weakside rebound against a guy who is far more athletic. 

OSU presents all of these matchup problems, which is why they are a great team, and we are only a good team.  I hope that next year with a deeper bench we will become a great team.

The longer Horford is injured the better basketball player he becomes. I like Horford, but he ain't arrived yet, and most likely would have made a minimal difference in yesterday's game. I would redshirt Horford at this point, but what do I know. OSU whupped that ass, like they tend to do lately against most everyone, especially in Cbus, but we will get another shot at them in AA.