TheWolverine (Rivals) staff make their season predictions
http://michigan.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1120095
Boy, not alot of optimism from this group. Helmholdt even calls for a 5-7 season for us; very unlikely Rich Rod comes back with a repeat of last season's record. I'm just going to take it game by game, but yeah, the UConn game could really set the tone for the season. 4 days left until hopefully we get back on track.
August 31st, 2010 at 4:39 PM ^
I tried to search for it, but couldn't find a season prediction (only a game one).
August 31st, 2010 at 4:46 PM ^
It's pretty much the same.
Only Helmholdt was right last year with his 5-7 prediction, so...yeah.... Crud.
August 31st, 2010 at 5:59 PM ^
Helmholdt seems troubled by the fact that we haven't named a starter at QB, but at worst we have a healthy Forcier who has had an additional 9 months to get stronger and learn the offense. So we have a 1A, 1B, and 1C contending for the starting role, with each being an improvement over what we rolled out last year. Is that really a problem?
We obviously have some uncertainty on defense, but I believe that we will at least be more balanced on D than last year. Last year there were only one or two guys to fear on D (mostly just Graham), and a number of guys to exploit (Ezeh, Williams, etc.). This year we may lack the top end play of Graham, but hopefully our increased athleticism will make up for the lack of experience in the secondary. Our average talent level may be the same, but it is not composed of dramatic highs and dramatic lows like last year.
August 31st, 2010 at 7:05 PM ^
You can argue that having a firm starter (last year) has a benefit that will be gone this year. That turmoil could offset a gain in experience or talent that is anticipated in 2010.
Furthermore, the assumption is that the coaches will make the right call here. (i.e. If DR or DG start over Tate, that means they are better than Tate this year, and therefore also Tate last year). Given Sheridan over Threet, this is still a bit murky.
Personally, I think QB WILL be better this year, but being concerned about the position is valid.
August 31st, 2010 at 9:12 PM ^
with Rogers high-jumping the corner routes?
August 31st, 2010 at 4:39 PM ^
the secondary... and I can't say I totally disagree. It's going to be hard with what we've got back there.
But that being said... I see a lot of flaws in their reasoning.. especially the ND game... Floyd still needs someone who can get him the ball... Crist is certainly anything but proven.
August 31st, 2010 at 4:42 PM ^
I don't know if RR pays attention to media stuff, but I know if I were coach in this situation I would make damn sure the entire team knows that the entirety of the outside world is laughing at them and writing them off as no-good losers. College football is a game of emotion, and if our guys go out there with a seriously pissed-off attitude, so much the better.
August 31st, 2010 at 4:48 PM ^
I would just watch the 2009 Illini game in a team meeting.
August 31st, 2010 at 5:01 PM ^
I suppose some might say I'm nuts, but I really believe that if Roundtree had managed to get his slow butt over the goal line, the complexion of that game changes entirely. From what I remember, Juice already had his helmet off and Zook was warming up the backup QB at that moment, but the subsequent goal-line stand seemed to take the stuffing out of us completely and then Juice comes in to take advantage of the change in momentum. If Roundtree scores, Juice comes out, the backup comes in and doesn't rally the team, and we have our sixth win, going away. And maybe that carries over to the Purdue game and we get a seventh win. Gah.
August 31st, 2010 at 5:10 PM ^
Roundtree took his "slow butt" 76 yards. He is in no way responsible for the fact that our offense could not gain that final yard. I will never blame a guy for getting us a first and goal.
August 31st, 2010 at 5:24 PM ^
on btn recently, and I couldn't believe how bad the O-line looked when we were hanging points on them. After that I shifted a good chunk of blame to the loss of Molk for that loss.
August 31st, 2010 at 7:58 PM ^
The loss of Molk contributed heavily to the:
MSU loss: Mooseman's first road game ever as a center, MSU had the snap counts figured out in about 3 seconds, and their DTs were in the backfield the whole game.
PSU loss: We moved the ball well the one drive he was in the game before blowing out his knee. After that, the PSU defensive line destroyed our OLine.
Illinois: No way we don't convert a N and Goal from the 1 four straight times with Molk in there. Heck, you could just have the qb snap and run behind Molk.
August 31st, 2010 at 8:13 PM ^
and the Bowl we so desperately needed to be in last year. GAH!!!!!!!
August 31st, 2010 at 5:07 PM ^
Illinois game would work as well
August 31st, 2010 at 7:15 PM ^
I agree 100% with you. Great point. What is lost in all these predictions is the emotion of the team. We all know that this has a huge impact. This team has better leadership, worked harder in the off-season and is more together and determined than last year. I think that counts for a lot and will show as the season progresses. I like the fact that everyone is writing them off. They will suprise some people.
August 31st, 2010 at 7:16 PM ^
= "no good losers"??
August 31st, 2010 at 4:48 PM ^
They are usually way overly optimistic, so I like this toned down, fairly pessimistic stuff. I'm thinking the exact opposite will happen this time.
August 31st, 2010 at 4:50 PM ^
No one can call them Homers.
August 31st, 2010 at 7:18 PM ^
I see a bunch of 7 win predictions, which doc sat (a pretty objective observer) and many other national writers see as the best reasonable case scenario. That 5 or 6 is more likely. Vegas odds say less than 7.
So, most people think less, yet a bunch of these guys predict 7.
Sounds like homerism to me.
August 31st, 2010 at 8:55 PM ^
I'm going to go with Dr. Jon Chait Jekyll's prediction of 11-1. But, then, that's just me.
August 31st, 2010 at 4:50 PM ^
that Ricardo Miller and Marvin Robinson would be 5 stars. So I think I'll take a wait and see approach on this one.
August 31st, 2010 at 4:52 PM ^
will be silenced after week 2. Michigan is going to win the first 5 outta 6 games-if not all 6. Its going to happen. After that they may get beat a couple times badly and then lose a couple more close ones, but I believe that the offense is going to be so overwhelming that we will simply outscore half of the more talented teams we face. I stick by 8-4 as being realistic, not just optimistic. Yeah the D is a big mess, but I just think the offense is going to be bloody f'n murder.
August 31st, 2010 at 7:33 PM ^
Are the people predicting 10-2 going to be the loudest and most disappointed after every loss?
August 31st, 2010 at 7:18 PM ^
I agree with 8-4. The offense is going to give teams absolute fits. We will be thrilled with and overachieving 8-4. Nothing like the Lloyd 8-4 underachievers.
August 31st, 2010 at 7:35 PM ^
Where 8-4 was considered "underachieving".
August 31st, 2010 at 4:53 PM ^
I want to believe more, but Michigan figures to be the underdog in five of its games (ND, Iowa, PSU, Wisky, OSU). What’s more, in the last two years Michigan has lost more games it should have won, than won games it should have lost.
I don’t blame any forecaster for saying, “Show me you can take care of business.” I do think a prediction somewhere around 6-7 games has more upside than downside, but then, I thought so last year too.
August 31st, 2010 at 4:58 PM ^
any response that refers to how UM has performed "in the last two years" be immediately ignored.
August 31st, 2010 at 6:15 PM ^
You are only permitted to say that if you will be of the same opinion after the team goes 8-4 and 10-2 the next two years. It’s cheating to ignore history only when you dislike it.
August 31st, 2010 at 7:21 PM ^
when the past two years are made up of freshman/first-time starters and this year is considered to be a make-or-break based upon experience, it's not entirely relevant.
August 31st, 2010 at 7:28 PM ^
this year is made up of freshman/first-time starters and 2011 is considered to be a make-or-break year based on experience
August 31st, 2010 at 7:45 PM ^
i don't know what freshman/first-time starters you're referring to. the offense was almost entirely new in 2008 and had more experience at line and RB in 2009. the defense was composed of returners in 2008 but not as much in 2009. etc.
August 31st, 2010 at 7:54 PM ^
remains largely freshman/first-time starters in 2010.
Sophomore eligibility guys who were thrown to the wolves last season out of maddening need (Roh and Kovacs) are grizzled vets for this D. There is one guy (ONE!)...who has been better than average as a starter and returns (Martin). He's been on campus for barely past 2 years.
August 31st, 2010 at 7:23 PM ^
In addition to those 5, UM will also probably be underdogs against MSU.
UConn and Purdue will be functional pick em's. Thats 4-2-6 or, if you want to be kind, 6-6.
Relative to objective expectation, 5 is (mildly) pessimistic, 6 is neutral, 7 is optimistic
August 31st, 2010 at 4:58 PM ^
They must not be true Michigan fans
August 31st, 2010 at 5:01 PM ^
bullshit. We go 9-3 or 10-2 and we split Iowa-PSU-Wisky-OhioSt. I am tired of the negativity and I think the team is as well. With the track record of RR, I think we surprise a lot of people.
August 31st, 2010 at 5:08 PM ^
This board is way too pessimistic. Pryor is garbage, PSU is rebuilding, and Brian has already PROVEN that Iowa cannot be good two years in a row because of luck.
11-1, easy. htown is right, RR's track record demands nothing less.
August 31st, 2010 at 5:05 PM ^
god dammit.....i can't believe its still tuesday
August 31st, 2010 at 5:08 PM ^
No one is really give this team a chance. Prepare to eat crow MSM.
August 31st, 2010 at 5:12 PM ^
Perhaps they also think Sheridan could start for us this season.
August 31st, 2010 at 5:37 PM ^
I'm the type of person that believes if you don't expect good outcomes, you won't get them. I'm saying we go 8-4 or 9-3 with wins over uconn, bgsu, umass,indiana, msu, iowa, purdue, illinois, and potentially splitting between psu and nd. I'd be extremely dissapointed with a 5-7 or 6-6 season. That really doesn't show any improvement to me.
August 31st, 2010 at 7:21 PM ^
What number is it you wear again...?
August 31st, 2010 at 7:25 PM ^
has no influence on this team. Neither does mine.
If you go to games, yell your head off. Thats the only action of yours that affects the team in any way.
August 31st, 2010 at 5:49 PM ^
Just another atrocious article on why we won't go bowling. I'm tired of it. I can't wait til we're back on top so all of these so called journalists, bloggers, and reporters can eat all the trash they've reporting these past 2 seasons. I'm focused on UConn. We will not lose.
August 31st, 2010 at 6:54 PM ^
What 4 games would y'all be comfortable losing? I would have a hard time stomaching a loss to ND (1st year new program), Indiana (it's hard to consider them a dangerous football opponent), MSU (pick your favorite five reasons), Iowa (home, had ball w/chance to win road night game last year), Penn State (they will be suffering through UM '08 QB nightmare scenario), Illinois (500 foot tall robot no longer there), Purdue (Hope, had chances to beat them with worse offenses last two years), or OSU (I know, road game - I can't get images off Streets galloping down the field while the All-World Unbeatable Amazing Defense Featuring Shawn "oops I slipped in the mud" Springs ran futilely behind him out of my head). And I think we've got a puncher's chance against Wisconsin, too. So I'll take it one game at a time, but I think that we have the opportunity for one hell of a year.
August 31st, 2010 at 7:39 PM ^
August 31st, 2010 at 7:50 PM ^
I just can't help but feel like we've got a shot in each game. And any game in which we've got a shot, I feel that we'll win; I will continue to feel that way until a scoreboard with no time on the clock proves me wrong.
Of course, I expected us to win a few that we lost last year.
But this year will be different!!!!! (exclamation points provided in lieu of actual factual reasons)
August 31st, 2010 at 10:26 PM ^
F*ck the negativity. Michigan ALWAYS has a shot to win.
I can see us winning 10 games with our schedule and the weaknesses of who we play.
Go Blue.
August 31st, 2010 at 6:56 PM ^
is reasonable. Still young at too many positions to consistently kick ass in the B10. Our secondary is mixed bag of FR and walk ons. We have to score 35+ a game to win and that is tough to do when you have inexperience at so many positions.
Most D-I teams aren't rotating 2 SO and 1 FR at QB.
Buckle up, it's gonna be bumpy.
August 31st, 2010 at 6:57 PM ^
I fucking loathe the media, every aspect of it. One day............