lbpeley

December 1st, 2011 at 2:34 PM ^

scenarios. I saw a UM/Oklahoma, a UM/ Oklahoma St, and a UM/ Va Tech possibility. I'm not thinking any of those match ups would be blech. In fact, I'd take any of them over Houston. UM beats an undefeated Houston team and maybe cracks the Top Ten. UM beats OU/OSU/VT and they're well in the Top Ten.

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MaizeAndBlueWahoo

December 1st, 2011 at 2:58 PM ^

But those require a lot more crazy upsets.  One of the ways to get to playing Oklahoma requires both New Mexico and UNLV to win.  Those are terrible, terrible teams.  Or, you need UGA, ISU, and Baylor all to win.  I couldn't even figure out how to make the U-M/VT matchup happen.  Sure, those would be great games, but pretty far outside the realm of the (even remotely) likely.  I'm OK with playing Houston.  I don't care whether we're top ten to finish the season, that's meaningless.  Sugar Bowl champs, however, that means something.

Edit: ok, I found the Michigan/VT game.  Can only come to pass if UNM and UNLV both win.  Never happen.

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Drill

December 1st, 2011 at 3:29 PM ^

Michigan/Stanford is also a possibility, according to this.

lsu, oklahoma, va tech, southern miss, boise state, oregon, wisky, usf, uconn, unlv, iowa state, texas all winning gives us that matchup.

If you do the same, but flip usf with wvu and uconn with cincy, it has Michigan vs WVU

Joined: 06/30/2008

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MaizeAndBlueWahoo

December 1st, 2011 at 4:51 PM ^

If just Georgia loses, Michigan is pretty much guaranteed a spot.  Besides, Houston is 6th - they're not going to drop out of the top 14 if they lose.  The only thing they'll drop out of is an autobid of their own - but not out of the top 14.  We still need to displace someone else. 

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Logan88

December 1st, 2011 at 6:39 PM ^

Actually, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Houston drop out of the Top 14 in the BCS if they lose to USM. Houston doesn't have the street cred of a TCU or Boise State. Their schedule is absolutely horrible (best team they have beaten: UCLA by 4 points) and the pollsters would drop Houston like a rock with a loss.

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UMICH1606

December 1st, 2011 at 2:36 PM ^

Yeah, I took a glance at the math with the points differentials in the human polls, along with the computer bowls when I heard Brad Edwards going all doom and gloom.

When I actually had time to crunch the numbers, I came to the conclusion that Brad Edwards must be on marching orders to create hype for the show, since there really isn't any. The math doesn't work for Baylor jumping over us. It doesn't work for Georgia or MSU staying ahead either. Barring Georgia beating LSU, Michigan will be in the top 14.

Notice that even though Brad is all doom and gloom, there is not a bowl prjection website, including Brad himself that has taken Michigan out of the Sugar Bowl?

 

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bdsisme

December 1st, 2011 at 1:32 PM ^

If you didn't scroll down, you missed this (like I originally did):

 

Michigan: The most interesting case of the year. A lock to be chosen if eligible, the Wolverines need to finish in the top 14. That means they need to move up two spots. The easiest way? #14 Georgia loses to LSU, and either #13 MSU or #15 Wisconsin loses and drops below UM. How could it go wrong? Maybe the Spartans lose but the pollsters keep them above Michigan, whom they beat? Probably the Wolverines move ahead enough in the computers to still gain the spot. Baylor beats Texas and jumps Michigan? Again, possible but not probable. We assume that Michigan makes the top 14 unless Georgia beats LSU, and even then if Houston loses. If LSU beats Georgia, Michigan is the Sugar Bowl's first pick; if Georgia wins and Houston loses, Michigan is the Fiesta Bowl's #2 pick. There hasn't been a team in quite a while that is so certain to be chosen if they can just crack the top 14.

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sULLY

December 1st, 2011 at 1:34 PM ^

Thanks for posting this!  One question I have is why is everyone so confident that we will be an at-large over a team like Oklahoma if they dont drop out of the top-14?  Or better yet, if Oklahoma beats OK State, why not OK State?  I think Michigan is more marketable than any other at-large possiblility, but for devil's advocate sakes why not any other at large possibilities?

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mlax27

December 1st, 2011 at 1:55 PM ^

Michigan hasn't gone to a BCS game since 2007, so our large fanbase is eager to travel, and will sell lots of hotel rooms.  Few other teams have as many fans that are as eager to travel.  In terms of TV ratings Denard Robinson will probably draw better ratings than any other single player, so yet another reason people will want to watch.  Plus you've got the feel good story of Hoke and how our team has turned it around.

So many reasons to pick Michigan this year.

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raleighwood

December 1st, 2011 at 2:31 PM ^

If Oklahoma is an "at large" team, that means they'll have three losses so Michigan finishes ahead of them.  If Oklahoma State is the "at large" team, they'll have the same record as Michigan but the Wolverines will likely beat them out.

Cheer for Oklahoma State this weekend just to be safe.

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mackbru

December 1st, 2011 at 1:36 PM ^

That dork over at CBS, Brad Edwards, keeps saying there's a good chance MSU, if it loses to Wisky, won't drop behind M. Which seem farfetched. M is currently 16th, MSU 13th. I'm pretty sure voters would drop the 3-loss team behind the 2-loss team, especially since they're already fairly neck-and-neck.

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ccdevi

December 1st, 2011 at 2:26 PM ^

Thats not exactly right, MSU is significantly ahead of us in votes (and spots) in the 2 human polls, for example they are 9th and we are 16th in the coaches poll.  A lot of people don't seem to understand that its about how many votes you have not where you're ranked.  The other thing to note is that Georgia and Okla, among others are teams that could also lose this weekend and are ranked near or behind MSU thus MSU may not lose as many votes as they otherwise would.

I think if MSU were to lose a close game it might be tight.

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raleighwood

December 1st, 2011 at 2:42 PM ^

The voters seem to like MSU for some reason.  They're still warming up to Michigan.  Consider this:

1.  MSU played four teams outside the Top 100 this year.  That's almost hard to do when there are only 120 teams.  I'm counting the Youngstown State (D1AA) game as part of this.  The others are CMU, Indiana and Florida Atlantic.  Michigan's worst game was against EMU who is ranked in the mid-80's.  All of Michigan's OOC opponents are bowl eligible.

2.  Michigan and MSU played six common opponents this season.  Notre Dame, OSU, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern.  Michigan won the "point margin" competition in five of those six games (big, big margins in the cases of Minnesota and Nebraska).

3.  Michigan was outscored by 22 points in its two losses.  Both games were within a TD late in the 4Q.  MSU lost its two games by 39 points (both to teams that Michigan beat).  Both games were basically blowouts.

I can (barely) understand that MSU is ahead in the polls but it seems like the gap should be much closer than it is. 

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Look Up_See Blue

December 1st, 2011 at 2:09 PM ^

Good find by you.  That was pretty neat.  Seems like all we need is LSU to win and we're in.  There was one weird scenario where we play Kansas St. in the Sugar Bowl.  I'd rather play Houston than KSU.  I really don't think UGA will beat LSU.  Aside from the Ramblin Wreck, UGA played it's toughet oppoent in Week 2 against South Carolina.  Will they be ready after playing an easy SEC East schedule most of the season?

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