At press time, Harbaugh had sent Michigan’s athletic department an envelope containing a heavily annotated seating chart, a list of the 63,000 seat views he had found unsatisfactory, and a glowing 70-page report on section 25, row 12, seat 9, which he claimed is “exactly what the great sport of football is all about.”
Test every scenario of this weekends games and get BCS predictions
All we have to do is root for LSU?
Let's also root for Houston. If the idea of playing a paper tiger of a mid-major is unappealing, at least they have a spotless record we can make a mess of. A two-loss medium-good mid-major....blech.
scenarios. I saw a UM/Oklahoma, a UM/ Oklahoma St, and a UM/ Va Tech possibility. I'm not thinking any of those match ups would be blech. In fact, I'd take any of them over Houston. UM beats an undefeated Houston team and maybe cracks the Top Ten. UM beats OU/OSU/VT and they're well in the Top Ten.
But those require a lot more crazy upsets. One of the ways to get to playing Oklahoma requires both New Mexico and UNLV to win. Those are terrible, terrible teams. Or, you need UGA, ISU, and Baylor all to win. I couldn't even figure out how to make the U-M/VT matchup happen. Sure, those would be great games, but pretty far outside the realm of the (even remotely) likely. I'm OK with playing Houston. I don't care whether we're top ten to finish the season, that's meaningless. Sugar Bowl champs, however, that means something.
Edit: ok, I found the Michigan/VT game. Can only come to pass if UNM and UNLV both win. Never happen.
To get UM vs. VT:
Clemson over Virginia Tech
Southern Miss over Houston
UNLV over TCU
Iowa State over Kansas State
Gives the ACC two bids, something that's not going to happen.
If Houston loses, according to this, we'll play TCU. If TCU also loses, we'll play Kansas State.
UM/Kansas State is another possibility.
Also, if Georgia beats LSU, the only way I saw Michigan getting in is both TCU and Houston losing.
Michigan/Stanford is also a possibility, according to this.
lsu, oklahoma, va tech, southern miss, boise state, oregon, wisky, usf, uconn, unlv, iowa state, texas all winning gives us that matchup.
If you do the same, but flip usf with wvu and uconn with cincy, it has Michigan vs WVU
Houston, TCU and Kansas State all lose. How's that for clicking around ????
We are NOT rooting for Houston. We want every chance possible to break the top 14, and a Houston loss only helps. A Houston loss potentially moves us up in the rankings, AND frees up another at large spot. If Houston AND Georgia lose, Michigan is guaranteed a BCS berth.
If just Georgia loses, Michigan is pretty much guaranteed a spot. Besides, Houston is 6th - they're not going to drop out of the top 14 if they lose. The only thing they'll drop out of is an autobid of their own - but not out of the top 14. We still need to displace someone else.
Actually, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Houston drop out of the Top 14 in the BCS if they lose to USM. Houston doesn't have the street cred of a TCU or Boise State. Their schedule is absolutely horrible (best team they have beaten: UCLA by 4 points) and the pollsters would drop Houston like a rock with a loss.
your avatar is cool. +1 for the winged lion.
I took night classes in Microsoft Paint at the community college.
Looks like my hard work paid off, huh?
as long as LSU wins we are in?!?!
But that's what i'm getting out of it too. According to this, Michigan is pretty much a lock.
Yeah, I took a glance at the math with the points differentials in the human polls, along with the computer bowls when I heard Brad Edwards going all doom and gloom.
When I actually had time to crunch the numbers, I came to the conclusion that Brad Edwards must be on marching orders to create hype for the show, since there really isn't any. The math doesn't work for Baylor jumping over us. It doesn't work for Georgia or MSU staying ahead either. Barring Georgia beating LSU, Michigan will be in the top 14.
Notice that even though Brad is all doom and gloom, there is not a bowl prjection website, including Brad himself that has taken Michigan out of the Sugar Bowl?
Who knew Michigan's fate could ride on the TCU v UNLV match up?
does it?? At least not for me. The only game that effects M going to Sugar bowl appears to be LSU/Georgia.
You have to play with it a little more, but there's a scenario, accourding to the simulator, where Georgia wins and Houston loses, and Michigan can only get in if TCU also loses.
Very cool. Thanks!
If you didn't scroll down, you missed this (like I originally did):
Michigan: The most interesting case of the year. A lock to be chosen if eligible, the Wolverines need to finish in the top 14. That means they need to move up two spots. The easiest way? #14 Georgia loses to LSU, and either #13 MSU or #15 Wisconsin loses and drops below UM. How could it go wrong? Maybe the Spartans lose but the pollsters keep them above Michigan, whom they beat? Probably the Wolverines move ahead enough in the computers to still gain the spot. Baylor beats Texas and jumps Michigan? Again, possible but not probable. We assume that Michigan makes the top 14 unless Georgia beats LSU, and even then if Houston loses. If LSU beats Georgia, Michigan is the Sugar Bowl's first pick; if Georgia wins and Houston loses, Michigan is the Fiesta Bowl's #2 pick. There hasn't been a team in quite a while that is so certain to be chosen if they can just crack the top 14.
Thanks for posting this! One question I have is why is everyone so confident that we will be an at-large over a team like Oklahoma if they dont drop out of the top-14? Or better yet, if Oklahoma beats OK State, why not OK State? I think Michigan is more marketable than any other at-large possiblility, but for devil's advocate sakes why not any other at large possibilities?
Oklahoma is either going to the Fiesta or nothing (basically like MSU/Wisconsin), and Oklahoma State is a no-name team that would be coming off two straight losses, Michigan is the much easier sell.
Michigan hasn't gone to a BCS game since 2007, so our large fanbase is eager to travel, and will sell lots of hotel rooms. Few other teams have as many fans that are as eager to travel. In terms of TV ratings Denard Robinson will probably draw better ratings than any other single player, so yet another reason people will want to watch. Plus you've got the feel good story of Hoke and how our team has turned it around.
So many reasons to pick Michigan this year.
If Oklahoma is an "at large" team, that means they'll have three losses so Michigan finishes ahead of them. If Oklahoma State is the "at large" team, they'll have the same record as Michigan but the Wolverines will likely beat them out.
Cheer for Oklahoma State this weekend just to be safe.
That dork over at CBS, Brad Edwards, keeps saying there's a good chance MSU, if it loses to Wisky, won't drop behind M. Which seem farfetched. M is currently 16th, MSU 13th. I'm pretty sure voters would drop the 3-loss team behind the 2-loss team, especially since they're already fairly neck-and-neck.
M also beat two teams that MSU lost to - ND and Nebraska.
Thats not exactly right, MSU is significantly ahead of us in votes (and spots) in the 2 human polls, for example they are 9th and we are 16th in the coaches poll. A lot of people don't seem to understand that its about how many votes you have not where you're ranked. The other thing to note is that Georgia and Okla, among others are teams that could also lose this weekend and are ranked near or behind MSU thus MSU may not lose as many votes as they otherwise would.
I think if MSU were to lose a close game it might be tight.
The voters seem to like MSU for some reason. They're still warming up to Michigan. Consider this:
1. MSU played four teams outside the Top 100 this year. That's almost hard to do when there are only 120 teams. I'm counting the Youngstown State (D1AA) game as part of this. The others are CMU, Indiana and Florida Atlantic. Michigan's worst game was against EMU who is ranked in the mid-80's. All of Michigan's OOC opponents are bowl eligible.
2. Michigan and MSU played six common opponents this season. Notre Dame, OSU, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern. Michigan won the "point margin" competition in five of those six games (big, big margins in the cases of Minnesota and Nebraska).
3. Michigan was outscored by 22 points in its two losses. Both games were within a TD late in the 4Q. MSU lost its two games by 39 points (both to teams that Michigan beat). Both games were basically blowouts.
I can (barely) understand that MSU is ahead in the polls but it seems like the gap should be much closer than it is.
Technically EMU isn't bowl eligible, since they are 6-6, but played two FCS teams and can only count one of those wins towards bowl elgibility.
If Houston loses to S. Miss we'd get TCU!
(If LSU also wins)
would definatly be a more legit opponent
There's a chance we could go to the Fiesta Bowl too? That's unlikely
am I the only one who would be far more afraid of playing TCU than Houston?
I think people are selling Houston short. Their QB completes 73% of his passes and has a TD to INT ratio of 43 to 3. I don't care who they've played, watch the OSU game again and tell me that doesn't concern you.
Greg Mattison is why it doesn't concern me. Seems like all Houston wants to do is throw bombs downfield. I have faith in the defensive line to completely shut down the running game, which would allow Mattison to play 7 deep.
I haven't seen them play but they can't be throwing bombs constantly and complete 73%.
Houston also average 200 yards rushing a game.
I think the big difference is the mobility of Case Kenum versus the mobility of Braxton Miller.
Look at the quality of teams he faced. Colt Brennan anyone?
Conference USA defenses!!
In the human polls, we're already the lowest ranked two loss team from an AQ conference. Even if that doesn't change, hopefully we'll at least move ahead of any three loss teams (B10 loser, UGA and OU if they lose).
Is awesome. Great find, that answers a lot of questions around the board.
In Mad Hatter land somewhere, there is a plot being developed to throw the SEC Championship game, allow Georgia into the Sugar Bowl, keep the BCS Championship game versus Alabama alive, and exact revenge on that school in Michigan for never offering him the job. SEC still gets title game and more money thanks to a 3rd BCS team and Michigan gets Gator Bowl and less money.
Ok, it sounds much farther fetched now that I wrote it down...
Miles loves M and he knows that it was his actions alone that prevented him from getting the job. Most fans wanted him while the insiders said "hell no"
Nueheisel / UCLA beat Oregon
I put in every game being an upset* just to see what the simulator would spit out:
BCS Title Game: LSU vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl: UCLA vs. MSU
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Louisville
*using point spread to determine an upset (FYI, OU is a 3 point 'dog to OSU)