Tell-tale stats

Submitted by steve sharik on

We've discussed some stats that are typical of winning football, namely TO margin and 3rd down conversion rate.

Today, we were officially +1 in TO margin, but I'm counting that as even b/c of the onside kick recovery by Purdue.

On 3rd downs, we won that battle with a 57.1% (8/14) rate compared to Purdue's 46.67% (7/15).

So, what other numbers are behind winning? How about hidden yardage? Well, we had 204 return yards to their 103, and we were out-gained in punting by a total of 165-139, so we won the hidden yards battle by 75.

As a former Defensive Coordinator, I always emphasized first downs. The team that does better on first downs has a better chance to win. Saturday, Purdue *averaged* 8.03 yards on first down, *including penalties against them*. We were good at 5.94, but we still lost that battle.

Of course, the real reason we lost is b/c our safeties are an absolute abomination, but the stats above do help tell a story.

Captain Obvious

November 7th, 2009 at 11:58 PM ^

I agree with Steve that first down yardage is a great indicator of in-game success. It is less useful when the data is skewed by 60 yard plays on first down. A 60 yard play kills the opposition whether it comes on 1, 2, 3, or 4th down. A 6 yard gain is not normally spectacular but it is particularly useful on first down because it opens up the playbook...which is why the first down yards stat is helpful.

raleighwood

November 7th, 2009 at 11:36 PM ^

"Of course, the real reason we lost is b/c our safeties are an absolute abomination"

I'd say that there's much more to the loss than the play of the safties....

The ability to kick an extra point and reasonable field goal come to mind immediately.

How about the inability to recover an onside kick?

Forcier's muffed pitch to Minor that gave the ball to Purdue on Michigan's ~20 yard line ranks up there, too.

What about not kicking a field goal on 4th and 10 to cut the lead to five with enough time on the clock for another possesion?

Maybe even the playcall decision on the two point conversion (why is Forcier not rolling out to give him a run/throw option?)

Yeah, I'd say that there were many missed opportunities to win the game. The "real reason" can't really be pinned on the safeties alone.

Seth9

November 7th, 2009 at 11:43 PM ^

Guess what? Onside kicks generally fail.

There were a number of things that went wrong in that game, but the lack of ability on the part of our safeties has doomed our defense, which in turn is the biggest reason for losing. You typically lose when you give up 38 points to anyone.

ATrain32

November 7th, 2009 at 11:50 PM ^

"How about the inability to recover an onside kick?"

Maybe Purdue made one helluva play? The kick was well placed and only their guy had a shot at that. Sometimes the other team makes a good play and it's not a deficiency on the part of your team.

Simply put, they made more plays than we did. Close game. Frustrating to lose.