Teams trending up and down (UM up/MSU down)

Submitted by massblue on

ESPN has teams trending up and down and there are some surprises.  I think they are off, but here it is:

Trending up:
1. USC
2. UCLA
3. Auburn
4. OSU (?? They are going to win the superbowl?)
5. GTech
6. ARK
7. TAMU
8. TENN
9. Michigan
10. Louisville 
 
Michigan: Coach Jim Harbaugh is still in the crawl-before-you-walk segment of life at his alma mater, but already the program’s trajectory has shifted. Really, morale could not go any lower. Credit Michigan for getting its man and changing fortunes with will (and deep pockets).
 
Trending down:
1. Oklahoma
2. South Carolina
3. Mich State
4. WSU
5. Oklahoma State  (?? another poll has them in the semi)
 
MSU: The Spartans broke through two seasons ago to win a Rose Bowl, but did they do enough to take advantage of the tumultuous stretches Ohio State and Michigan recently went through? 
 
The Buckeyes obviously have snapped out of their spell, and Michigan -- with Jim Harbaugh now on the prowl as coach -- is likely not all that far behind. Coach James Franklin’s aggressiveness also makes Penn State noteworthy in college football’s most improved division. 
 
Coach Mark Dantonio promoted Harlon Barnett and Mike Tressel from within to replace defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi, who is now Pitt’s new coach, but how much will Narduzzi’s influence and ability to develop players be missed? 
 
Michigan State’s window for high-end success appears to be closing -- and quickly.
 
Edit: $$Links

ChuckieWoodson

February 10th, 2015 at 4:50 PM ^

probably right. Still doesn't make me feel any better losing to them 6 out of the last 7 times though.  Would love to see a patented Jim Harbaugh shoulder slap on ol Dantonio after the game this year

 

west2

February 10th, 2015 at 4:54 PM ^

Oregon State and not bucky.   These polls are always fun in the middle of winter but similar to preseason polls almost never have it right. 

BlueVball8

February 10th, 2015 at 5:06 PM ^

At this point we cannot rely on projections / potential / momentum. We don't have much to show over the last 7 years other than a one year fluke...so I think we can all agree it is just time to win many games!

Mocha Cub

February 10th, 2015 at 5:07 PM ^

The only problem I have with this is that the rumors of MSU's demise have been around for years, yet they continue to win. As much as I detest his personality, Mork is a very good coach. I don't think they'll experience the highs that they've had recently year in and year out, but I don't really think they're going anywhere in terms of being top contenders in the BIG either. That's a good thing though, because when we kick their ass on the regular, it's going to be that much more fun. GO BLUE!

Danwillhor

February 10th, 2015 at 5:18 PM ^

msu's offense. Ever. They were a fat better offensive team this past year, IMO. Even 2 years ago when they had, IMO, a top 2-3 defense nationally, they moved the ball with impressive efficiency most times. They could spread you out or manball you like osu under Tressel. I mean, that's what "modern msu" is.....a poor man's mid 2000s osu in heart & style.

Tater

February 10th, 2015 at 5:34 PM ^

Sparty built their program due to the temporary self-destruction of Michigan.  They are going down.  Harbaugh hates them as much as they hate Michigan, so their advantage in the "intangibles " category is about to disappear.  

We saw Sparty start to fall this year.  They aren't getting the personnel they did during Michigan's "troubles" and now they don't have the coach who taught them to commit a PI or PF every play on defense and dare refs to be "that crew" that calls them on every play.  

ESPN got Sparty's assessment right.

BlueKoj

February 10th, 2015 at 5:43 PM ^

UM and PSU are going to make the B1G East a gauntlet, but so are OH and Sparty. I hardly would call only losing to the NCG participants, then beating BU on the way to another 11-win season the start of a fall.

I don't think Sparty's level is going to drop at all. I think UM's is going to rise. Hopefully, that means a UM W this year and the trend continues.

Double-D

February 10th, 2015 at 5:48 PM ^

But they are pulling much better players than before our self destruction and likely just landed their best class in the past 40 years. They caught some serious breaks to rise up but they also earned what they accomplished. They could also catch some bad breaks and fired up Harbaugh regime and end up back towards the middle soon.

HipsterCat

February 10th, 2015 at 5:49 PM ^

The only teams MSU lost to were the teams in the National Championship game. Their defense was the world beaters they were the rose bowl season but it hardly mattered since the offense was ON FIRE last year. Sparty may slip a little but I would hardly call them trending down especially with Conner Cook back under center this season. 

There is all this talk about how we could be awesome if we can find a competent QB, well State already has a great one gearing up for his senior year.

ThadMattasagoblin

February 10th, 2015 at 8:05 PM ^

and we beat PSU at Beaver Stadium at night that year. There weren't the Rutgers, Maryland, PSU, Purdue, Iowa, Minnesota auto wins that MSU has had. Iowa used to be damn tough. Same with PSU and Purdue with Joe Tiller. Lloyd won a national championship with an incredibly hard schedule went to 5 BCS games and won 4 big ten championships. Dantonio would dream to have those numbers. Lloyd should be more appreciated here.

bronxblue

February 10th, 2015 at 9:24 PM ^

Michigan went 2-1 against the ranked B1G teams as well as #17 ND.  MSU's best win this year (outside of Baylor in the bowl game) was against either 8-5 Minny or 9-4 Nebraska.  I don't think MSU is falling off a cliff, but their 11-win season is kind of a misnomer especially since they played both UM, Nebraska, and OSU at home.

OccaM

February 10th, 2015 at 6:01 PM ^

Again with this argument? Sparty has been kicking ass and taking names for 7 years now with recruits that Michigan still probably would not offer. Can we please give Dantonio respect even if he's a rival? 

 

bronxblue

February 10th, 2015 at 9:28 PM ^

People respect Dantonio generally, but at least part of MSU's relative success has been due to the B1G being very much down.  If PSU and UM are really on the rise, it will be interesting to see if MSU can keep up the succes they've had the last 5 years if traditional powers continue to improve.  

Muttley

February 11th, 2015 at 10:29 AM ^

Harbaugh will hang on Sparty, I don't see much impact on MSU.

Dantonio has built his program on recruiting classes rated as follows by Rivals. With an increased national visibility, I think that Mork will be able to pull in at least the same amount of talent going forward from the national pool.

YEAR RANK AVG*S COMMITS
2015 22 3.35 20
2014 22 3.27 22
2013 40 3.11 18
2012 41 3.11 18
2011 31 3.00 21
2010 30 3.05 22
2009 17 3.30 23
2008 47 2.71 21
2007 42 2.70 23

https://rivals.yahoo.com/michigan/football/recruiting/teamrank/2015/all…

Now the loss of Narduzzi might turn out to be significant, but that is only coincidental to Harbaugh's arrival.

alum96

February 10th, 2015 at 6:35 PM ^

Your 2nd paragraph is wrong on so many levels.  They had the best recruiting class of Dantonio's tenture.  They pulled a RB out of OH that Urban was dying for.  They have pulled one of the best WRs in the country in 2016 already. 

People mocking MSU in football sound a lot like those who mock Beilein.  As long as Dantonio is there they will be a very very good team. Doesnt mean they will win 11 every year but back to back top 5 finishes and you say they started to fall?  I'd love to start to fall like that.  Yes they are not as good as OSU and Oregon - those teams recruit better, esp OSU.  They overachieve almost every year save for 2012 when they had a dufus as QB and their OL suffered tremendous injuries.

Stop deluding yourself.  The Big 10 East is getting tougher but part of that is because MSU is not a Sparty no.  What I respect about what they have done (and did  better than Carr did with way more talent) is the past 2 years they have not dropped a single game to an inferior opponent.  They go and beat the teams they should - and often by a wide margin.  They dont sleepwalk into a game and drop one they have no right to.  We did that for 20 years which is why we had a lot of 4 loss seasons instead of 2 loss seasons like they have been having of late.

bronxblue

February 10th, 2015 at 9:42 PM ^

I don't disagree with the premise that MSU is going to be solid under Dantonio.  But at the same time, they played 3 decent teams this year and nearly lost to all of them, getting burned defensively and needing a miracle comeback to beat Baylor.  Yes, they absolutely haven't blown close games to inferior squads recently, and that is a testament to coaching.  But the conference has also been terrible for the past 3-4 years.  You argue that UM has some 4-loss seasons where they should only have 2-loss ones, but the conference 10-15 years ago was so much stronger than it was in the early 10's.  It absolutely doesn't excuse Michigan losing those games, but this idea that MSU has figured out how to win, for lack of a different term, "better" than other teams ignores both small sample size (if we are allowed to ignore 2012 in its 7-6 entirety, then they also lost to very mediocre 8-5 ND by 18 in 2011) and a weakened conference.  I actually expect MSU to be solid in 2016 with that offense, though any continued struggle by the defense isn't a good sign for long-term success.

I also take issue with the argument that Dantonio and Beilein are analogous, mostly I'm not sure just how innovative MSU is.  Their offense can be explosive, but until this year it defintely wasn't a unit that set the world on fire.  Their strength was their defense, but you saw this year elite offenses figure them out pretty well, and unlike in basketball I'm not sure how many more wrinkles you can throw into a scheme that relies extremely heavily on elite defensive backfield play.  I'm probably over-simplifying it, but I watched enough MSU games these past couple of years to come away with an appreciation for their defense but also seeing just how precarious they are on that razor's edge.  Beilein isn't a god, but the fact he is running out teams with multiple walk-ons and keeping pace with top-10 units seems due to immense creativity and nuance in the gameplan; MSU against the OSU/Oregon/Baylor sets is basically keep running what they do and hope the offense doesn't figure it out.

alum96

February 11th, 2015 at 4:42 AM ^

I could care less about innovation.  Dantonio is playing Tressel ball and winning big with it.

My comparison to Beilein is not about innovation. It is about taking a program lost in the wilderness, underachieving badly, installing a system, recruiting to that system, recruiting guys under the radar, having the sum of the parts more than the whole, player development, team gets better as the year goes by, having a "go to thing" (UM guard/wing play, MSU defense), being tough minded, being resilient. 

Last point is a sea change for Sparty.  Sparty No came from their mental toughness for decades - or lack of it.  You used to punch Sparty and they'd go into LOL form.  Dantonio changed that - Baylor game is one of many examples now.  Down to OSU in 2013, down to Stanford in 2013 - they came back.  Old Sparty teams would have circled the drain.  And there is a LOT to be said for beating who you should as if its a no brainer.  Yes MSU didnt always do that but the talent Dantonio had in 2011-2010 was different than it is now.  Beilein doesnt always do that either.

The one key advantage I give to Beilein is he is doing it with Michigan in an era Big 10 basketball is really good in general (not this year but in general) and Izzo is near the top of the game.  Meanwhile Big 10 football is really down and UM has been lost in the wilderness.  But outside of that there are striking parallels on how these 2 men have built up programs, systems, players, and changed mentalities. 

I don't like it one bit but anyone expecting the return of 5-7 Sparty is going to to have to wait until Harlen Barnett is their new coach in 7 years.

saveferris

February 11th, 2015 at 7:59 AM ^

What I respect about what they have done (and did better than Carr did with way more talent) is the past 2 years they have not dropped a single game to an inferior opponent.
While I somewhat agree with this, I do think it's important to point out that during Carr's tenure, especially after the turn of the century, he had to annually deal with an Ohio State that was good, a Wisconsin that was good, an Iowa that was good, a Penn State that was good. MSU and Dantonio haven't had to face a conference that balanced during their run, which is why lots of folks are skeptical as to how good they really are. MSU's conference schedule the past 5 years typically only had one killer match-up (either Wisconsin or OSU) and 7 other games against Indiana, disorganized Michigan, gutted Penn State, etc. MSU getting torched by quality competition isn't helping their case either.